If I was in a swing state sure, but in my deep red state it doesn't even matter
This election will be decided by 6 states
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Some Democrats calling for Biden to stand down in 2024
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This election will be decided by 6 states
Florida is a safe red state at this point and will be for a very long time, it's not up for grabs.
There's Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
Biden was born in Pennsylvania, which is one of the reasons why he was able to snag it in 2020. But it was only by 1.2%, and Trump won it in 2016. It'll probably be much tighter this time, whether it's Biden or someone else. Wisconsin was even tighter, and Arizona and Georgia were absurdly tight still, little over 10,000 votes each decided those two. It's very plausible that the Democrats could lose those this time around. They had previously been red since 2000.
Some people also consider North Carolina competitive, though it leans red and Trump took it in both 2016 and 2020. Though the results were considerably closer in 2020. Still, I don't really put much stock into people who say it's competitive. Only the other six swing states that Biden won by a relatively small margin in 2020 are relevant here.
Last edited by granville,
Dem party operatives seem to be pushing hard for Kamala Harris to be the replacement. This internal document has been making the rounds (and yes it is legitimate and created by high ranking members of the party)-
https://docs.google.com/document/d/...review?pru=AAABkKkWpm8*wQOgr0uC5FB1pjs5nEKXdA
https://docs.google.com/document/d/...review?pru=AAABkKkWpm8*wQOgr0uC5FB1pjs5nEKXdA
Last edited by granville,
I'd vote for her over Trump or anyone in the GOP (though that isn't saying much as any Dem will have to do in this particular case). That said, I disagree with some of the points the memo has in her favor as a viable candidate.
Some of the claims are accurate. Namely that she would have the easiest time slipping into the role with the least amount of trouble and legal roadblocks. She'd catch at least some of Biden's momentum, and would probably have easy access to the established campaign infrastructure and funds.
However, I'm extremely doubtful about the claims of her ability to win. She's a pretty weak debater and isn't particularly popular among the party, let alone independents. She might be able to regain some of the young black and black female voters Biden is struggling with, but i'm not sure it will help gain back the hispanic voters. And some of the white moderates that Biden appealed to may sit the election out. Trump might outright refuse to debate her or any replacement, but if he did then there's a good chance he'd walk all over her.
The memo claims that their data doesn't show her race and gender being a problem, but their reasoning seems faulty. They admit that their data has shown mixed results and isn't remotely conclusive. I do not care about her gender/race myself as it's an irrelevant factor in who I vote for, but there are a lot of people out there who do take that into account. Some as a positive, but others as a negative. And for the ones who view it as a negative. Racism and sexism unfortunately isn't exclusive to the GOP (even though they have by far an immensely higher concentration of this). There are plenty of Dems and Independents who are bigots too...
I'm also wondering how any of these replacement plans pan out if Biden refuses to drop out. This memo seems to conclude that he still has the ultimate say on whether that happens.
Last edited by granville,
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I'd vote for a literal dumpster fire over Donald Trump, but I think Dems need to be realistic now more than ever. Harris pulled down less than 5% support in her last primary campaign, and that's exclusively among Democrats. Gretchen Whitmer seems like the smartest and most strategic pick if they're replacing Biden on the ticket, as she would secure Wisconsin. Gavin Newsom would also be a great pick simply based on the image and charisma he projects, though I'm not sure a candidate from California (or New York) could appeal enough to working class voters.
It does seem likely that he'll just refuse to drop out unless the party is able to force him out (and again that memo above implies that they're going to allow him to refuse).
^To be honest, this was a pretty cathartic and strong moment of him snapping back and taunting the media for their dishonesty and horrible track record at predicting past elections. His ABC interview on the other hand did not go well.
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Newsom is not remotely viable according to senior party ops. He's disliked by even a lot of Dems outside of California and it's believed he would even lose some moderately blue states that Biden is expected to safely win. Whitmer is better, but again has the problem of her not being very popular outside of her state bubble. And has the double issue of sexism getting in the way.
Though to be fair, the sexism angle would affect Harris even more due to her also being black. Still, the push is for Harris to take over right now from what I understand. IF they can get Biden removed that is. I guess they think she's the only one who can serve as a "smooth transition" while avoiding legal issues and campaign restructuring. For the record, I agree with your points against her and don't think she's going to do well against Trump at all. But it's what the ops claim their internal polling is telling them to do and what they want right now. Their polls have admittedly been far better at predicting elections than public ones, but I just don't know if I can buy it. These are deadly waters to wade through, and a horrific time for Dems to act weak and have to jump ship on their candidate.
Last edited by granville,
I'm not sure what you mean. He was coherent, energetic even. And some frustration by him is only human. I'm sure however that if the dnc finds another candidate he will drop out.
Haven't we said more than a couple times however that there are no viable replacements?
Living in a certified blue state, this whole thing is really encouraging me to cast a third party vote. If the Dems were to somehow get Biden to concede his nomination, maybe then I'll vote for whomever the democrats put up (hopefully not Kamala, shes better than biden but I don't care about her)
People keep suggesting Gavin Newsom as a good replacement for Biden, and I think I agree with that, even if I'm not fully aware of everythings hes done.
People keep suggesting Gavin Newsom as a good replacement for Biden, and I think I agree with that, even if I'm not fully aware of everythings hes done.
Ah yes, for the Russian sponsored woman or the suspected dog-shagging cannibal. Really?
IDK who the dog shagger is, and as for Russian Sponsor women, it's funny people say that when we have no context as to what happened besides the media bitching and crying that she was there, and her saying it was to prevent war in the middle east.
Interpret either as you want, Biden is a failure, Trump was a disaster, why should I vote for either of them.
Kennedy.
Because Trump is a fascist unhinged dictator and a child rapist, who also happened to make the most vulnerable in the US even poorer and who stacked SCOTUS with stooges that keep taking away US rights from US citizens. And Biden is the only alternative there is.
She's compromised and failed to declare where her money is coming from. Security risk.
I want to specify now that regardless of what I vote presidential, I'd vote for Democrats in all other categories. Kennedy shagging dogs isn't surprising, I saw a picture of one they killed and cooked in I think Chile or Argentina.
I also think part of the issue I don't care to vote for Biden is the fact that I live in Maryland, a state that will inevitably end up blue again. Voting off the mainstream normal isn't going to create a risk for Trump winning here over Biden in the end.
It's the thought-process that is baffling. US presidential elections are an even more broken FPTP version, deliberately engineered to make some states marginal and others irrelevant. It's a 2 party system until it gets reformed to actually count votes and not constituencies.
Now we can argue about the sorry state of US politics where the choices are an Old Man, an old demented rapist fascist in diapers, and an old crazy dog-eating brain-wormed tinfoil hat, but that's where we are right now.
Now we can argue about the sorry state of US politics where the choices are an Old Man, an old demented rapist fascist in diapers, and an old crazy dog-eating brain-wormed tinfoil hat, but that's where we are right now.
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