US 2022 Mid term elections. 8th November 2022.

[FAST6191]

Didn't see a thread so might as well kick one off.

For those new to it all while the US presidential elections are every 4 years then in the middle of that (hence mid term) you get elections for all manner of other government roles, including the house of representatives (435 seats, which is all of them), notable chunk of the senate (35 out of 100 seats), governors of states (35, there presently being 50 states), several things within states and more besides. 8th of November 2022 then being the date in question, though "mail in"/postal votes are happening before then and providing some interesting info.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-61274333

What are the midterms and who's being elected?​

These elections are for Congress, which is made up of two parts - the House of Representatives and the Senate.
These votes are held every two years and when they fall in the middle of the president's four-year term of office, they are called the midterms.
Congress makes nationwide laws. The House decides which laws are voted on while the Senate can block or approve them, confirm appointments made by the president and, more rarely, conduct any investigations against him.
Each state has two senators, who sit for six-year terms. Representatives serve for two years, and represent smaller districts.
All the seats in the House of Representatives are up for election in November, alongside one-third of the Senate.
Several major states also have elections for their governor and local officials.

Polling varies (naturally) but the republicans are by many accounts creating a small lead, which will then mean control of probably the house of representatives/congress. Some are predicting a so called red wave in which republicans gain more seats than that still, polling there and potential accuracy issues don't preclude this but odds vary.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1321123/us-midterm-election-polls/

https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2022:_Governors

There are 36 gubernatorial seats on the ballot in 2022. These elections are in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

In addition, three U.S. territories are holding gubernatorial elections in 2022: Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. While this page includes links to pages on gubernatorial elections in the U.S. Territories, it does not include the territories in its statistics.

While governors have little power outside their state's borders the party aligned with never the less represents something of a bellwether of opinion as well, and several states that have races are quite populous or otherwise relevant. A few are potentially set to flip or otherwise have very close races, usually with the republicans having a far stronger turnout or favouring than historically might have been expected.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/states for those that want to figure it out. Density is kind of useful if you want to do the urban-rural bit.

rank​	State​	Pop (millions)​	Growth​	growthSince2010​	Percent​	density​
1​	California​	40.00​	0.0057​	0.0736​	0.1193​	256.7424​
2​	Texas​	29.95​	0.0135​	0.1909​	0.0893​	114.6318​
3​	Florida​	22.09​	0.0125​	0.1747​	0.0659​	411.852​
4​	New York​	20.37​	0.0041​	0.051​	0.0607​	432.158​
5​	Pennsylvania​	13.06​	0.0023​	0.0284​	0.039​	291.951​
6​	Illinois​	12.81​	-0.0001​	-0.0017​	0.0382​	230.7117​
7​	Ohio​	11.85​	0.0022​	0.0274​	0.0353​	290.0574​
8​	Georgia​	10.92​	0.0095​	0.1269​	0.0326​	189.8138​
9​	North Carolina​	10.62​	0.0086​	0.1138​	0.0317​	218.4411​
10​	Michigan​	10.12​	0.0019​	0.0235​	0.0302​	178.922​
11​	New Jersey​	9.39​	0.0053​	0.0678​	0.028​	1276.6405​
12​	Virginia​	8.76​	0.0073​	0.0945​	0.0261​	221.7642​
13​	Washington​	7.90​	0.0126​	0.175​	0.0236​	118.8971​
14​	Arizona​	7.30​	0.0105​	0.1426​	0.0218​	64.2939​
15​	Massachusetts​	7.13​	0.0068​	0.0884​	0.0213​	913.6378​
16​	Tennessee​	7.02​	0.0081​	0.1068​	0.0209​	170.3356​
17​	Indiana​	6.85​	0.0044​	0.0558​	0.0204​	191.0868​
18​	Maryland​	6.26​	0.0065​	0.0839​	0.0187​	644.6851​
19​	Missouri​	6.19​	0.0027​	0.0333​	0.0185​	90.0194​
20​	Wisconsin​	5.94​	0.0035​	0.0436​	0.0177​	109.5879​
21​	Colorado​	5.92​	0.0127​	0.1776​	0.0177​	57.145​
22​	Minnesota​	5.79​	0.007​	0.0911​	0.0173​	72.6765​
23​	South Carolina​	5.22​	0.0095​	0.1279​	0.0156​	173.5484​
24​	Alabama​	5.07​	0.0048​	0.0614​	0.0151​	100.1715​
25​	Louisiana​	4.68​	0.0027​	0.0329​	0.014​	108.3842​
26​	Kentucky​	4.54​	0.0037​	0.046​	0.0135​	114.9554​
27​	Oregon​	4.32​	0.0095​	0.1272​	0.0129​	44.9899​
28​	Oklahoma​	4.00​	0.0052​	0.0665​	0.0119​	58.3272​
29​	Connecticut​	3.61​	0.0009​	0.0107​	0.0108​	746.0376​
30​	Utah​	3.37​	0.0153​	0.2204​	0.0101​	41.051​
31​	Iowa​	3.22​	0.0045​	0.0567​	0.0096​	57.6324​
32​	Nevada​	3.19​	0.0128​	0.1795​	0.0095​	29.0162​
33​	Arkansas​	3.03​	0.0032​	0.0393​	0.009​	58.2425​
34​	Mississippi​	2.96​	-0.0002​	-0.0024​	0.0088​	63.0837​
35​	Kansas​	2.95​	0.0029​	0.0357​	0.0088​	36.1408​
36​	New Mexico​	2.13​	0.0027​	0.034​	0.0064​	17.5534​
37​	Nebraska​	1.99​	0.0068​	0.0888​	0.0059​	25.8843​
38​	Idaho​	1.89​	0.0145​	0.2079​	0.0056​	22.9107​
39​	West Virginia​	1.78​	-0.0033​	-0.0384​	0.0053​	74.1268​
40​	Hawaii​	1.47​	0.0065​	0.0838​	0.0044​	229.529​
41​	New Hampshire​	1.39​	0.0044​	0.0557​	0.0041​	155.2263​
42​	Maine​	1.37​	0.0025​	0.0307​	0.0041​	44.3912​
43​	Rhode Island​	1.11​	0.0041​	0.0511​	0.0033​	1069.9623​
44​	Montana​	1.10​	0.0087​	0.115​	0.0033​	7.5796​
45​	Delaware​	1.01​	0.0092​	0.123​	0.003​	517.3679​
46​	South Dakota​	0.90​	0.0081​	0.1068​	0.0027​	11.887​
47​	North Dakota​	0.80​	0.0135​	0.19​	0.0024​	11.5997​
48​	Alaska​	0.74​	0.0031​	0.0391​	0.0022​	1.2933​
49​	Vermont​	0.65​	0.0027​	0.0332​	0.0019​	70.147​
50​	Wyoming​	0.58​	0.0023​	0.0282​	0.0017​	5.9685​

Speaking of turnout as the midterms are usually considered a lower stakes thing (debatable as to whether it is -- does politics come from the bottom up or top down? Great deal of evidence to say it starts local and goes from there, in which case school boards, mayors, judges, city and state attorneys on up might get to be considered in this) so tend to have lower turnout -- last time around was the first time to get to 50% (and only just) in over a century, it has been almost a century since the presidential one was less than 50% (though it is usually only about 10% higher than mid terms).
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1139251/voter-turnout-in-us-presidential-and-midterm-elections/

Issues vary between states and are many. Nationwide most, especially the Republican focus, is on the economy which is doing rather poorly by most accounts (credit usage, home sales, default rates, inflation, stock market*, fuel prices...) and not set to get all that much better (fuel reserves are low, winter is about to hit, supplies are needing external input and are low by various reasons, China and Europe both doing quite poorly so that is most major import-export partners, strong US dollar and serious lack of US dollar reserves in various countries). How much can be laid at the feet of the current administration is debatable on various levels (who let money printer go brr**, who led credit companies play so fast and loose, who bailed them out last time this happened/will likely again, who led supplies be offshored this hard, who made sure there was a lack of housing...) but for whatever reason it is framed that way. Knowing this the democrats, who are presently in control of the white house, senate and house of representatives (so government as most know it, the courts are technically in that equation but for most that is a different discussion) and thus could be said to be shouldering the burden of bad decisions, are both seeking to stem the bleeding in the economy (trying to get more oil, something potentially quite interesting with the government debt market, issuing various stimulus measures at state level this time in addition to trying to garner support among the educated aspect of society with student debt relief) and deflect onto other "key" issues that normally play well with their base (the US supreme court having recently overturned the formerly nationwide and long standing ruling on abortion making it legal to instead kick it back to state level, something many democrat voters and possibly swing voters hold dear, gun control discussions and whatever else they traditionally like to garner an image as supporting).

*though that was otherwise in a bit of a bubble if profit-earnings ratios is anything to go by.

**inflation not being an instant effect of money printer go brr, takes time to filter on down and a new equilibrium sought.

So then predictions for nationwide stuff, any interesting races at state level for actors there, issues you think are not considered as much as they might be? If the red wave happens, or at least they get in, then what is likely to happen as a result (by most accounts it would make an already weak president incapable of doing much of anything, could deadlock, investigations they are conducting could get thrown out, most noting the 6th of January riot/protest/unscheduled tour of government buildings/insurrection/invasion/battle in the capitol/[delete as whims take you] then being a candidate, and new investigations brought in, possibly including into the conduct of the president's son). Are you predicting the opposite of a red wave and instead a slim margin? Anything funny happen (did see someone dancing in a chicken suit the other day, nominally a jab at the other candidate that refused to debate her opponent). Anything interesting happening that might be overlocked; dancing chicken being a meme, in this case for the republican party, might represent said same republicans shaking off the neocon image in favour of other things, though also if that is seen to fail that might mean the end of the would be "MAGA" set of the party and something else maybe appearing -- generational shifts are happening it seems and where it shakes out varies, the democrats having their own little ongoing internal conflict between the business democrats and democratic socialists.

 

[Xzi]

Between Sinema and/or Manchin taking donations from the opposition and voting accordingly, the Republicans already functionally control the Senate. I don't see them flipping enough seats to take control of the House. So basically nothing changes where the deadlock is concerned. Republicans have signaled they intend to try to make deep cuts to Social Security and Medicare, as well as trying to ban abortion nationwide, but any such efforts will be vetoed by Biden. Any further accomplishments Biden wants to see attributed to his administration prior to 2024 will have to go through executive action.

Same ol' same ol', neither party is going to take any meaningful action against out of control corporate profiteering/price gouging, thus the race to the bottom continues in that regard. Perhaps more interesting are local/statewide ballot initiatives available in a lot of places, for example the legality of psychedelics is on the ballot where I'm living. Another state (Louisiana IIRC, I'd have to double check) is considering reinstating slavery in some form. Two very different Americas with two very different ideas of what constitutes "freedom," clearly.

 

[Smoker1]

So many crazy People running for Office, so many Bills getting Voted on, it is all Crazy. Just a few I want to address.........

California Prop 31 = Ban ALL Flavored Nicotine Products (meaning ONLY Tobacco Flavor, NO Menthol, or any other Flavored Products) . Saying that Flavors appeal to Children. Well, here in the US, the Federal Age to Purchase Nicotine Products is 21.......same for ALCOHOL!!!!!!! Yet guess what.....Kids STILL get their hands on both. But yet they want to restrict Nicotine?????? Alcohol comes in Flavors as well, so what about that????? Same arguments can be applied to Alcohol, but also, there are more Legal Issues with it. Plus, you can get Drugged, taken advantage of, cant Drive while Drunk, can not be in Public while Intoxicated, Fights start with Drunk People, can be VERY Addicting, to the point where if you are a hard core Alcoholic, and you suddenly stop, you can die. Oh, but let's just Ban Flavored Nicotine only. Guess they have no Issues with Kids getting Alcohol, huh?

California and President Joe Biden wanting to Ban "Assault Weapons", and it goes as far as Banning Handguns if it meets the Criteria. Um, that would seriously Violate the 2nd Amendment. Not to mention, apparently there are MILLIONS of AR-15s, and other "Assault Weapons". Good luck with that. Criminals will get Firearms no matter WHAT "Laws", or "Bans" are in effect. All these do, is make it so the Law Abiding Citizens will not be able to Protect and Defend themselves, and also give the Criminals the upper hand more. Also.....
------Years ago, I read about how some Ammunition from a Evidence Room in Southern California just up and disappeared. I try to look it up now, and I get Results about how a Sheriff Officer was Selling it, along with Body Armor. Also that one Incident in the Bay Area, where a FBI Officer left his Credentials and his Service Weapon in his Vehicle, and they were STOLEN!!! So tell me......How EXACTLY would "Gun-Control" stop that?????? A Video I saw showed some Security or Police Officer left his Service Weapon at a Gym.
--Also, there have been Court Rulings that established, that Police are not Obligated to do ANYTHING!
--It can take Officers anywhere from.......being generous......10-45 Minutes, to a Hour to get to you. In that time frame.......yeah.
If you look at the times for when the 2nd Amendment was put in place, it was put in place so that the People would be able to Protect and Defend themselves, their Families, their Livelihood, and if needed, help Protect and Defend the Country from Threats External and Internal. So that also, the People could Fight back,m if the Government started going against the People, stripping their Rights, and not Representing them. They thought ahead, and wanted to make sure The People would be able to keep the Government in check, and make sure the People could keep this Nation Free.
==Here would be a great example,,,,,,,
It was established that Trump wanted to remain in Office, and wanted to stay in by Force if possible, right??? Also, it has been established that Trump idolized China's Leader, being their Leader for Life, saying would be nice if the US could have that. Also was idolizing North Korea, with how their Military had a Parade, and wished America's Military could do that for him. Not to mention, his Wife had Ties to Russia's Leader, Putin prior to Trump cheating on his then Wife with her. Trump also apparently supported Russia going after Ukraine, and not wanting to support Ukraine, and not wanting Ukraine to join NATO........which Trump also wanted to get the US out of.
----Now, think about that for a moment. What if Trump had remained in Office by force????? Next thing you know, he forces the US out of NATO. Next thing you know, what if Trump then also, like he did so many other times, said to hell with our Allies, and decided that the US would go for being with Russia, China, and North Korea?????? What if they started to dictate our Laws, what we could do, what we could not do????? What if next thing you knew, we had Communist Soldiers coming in. What would the People be able to do?????? How would the People be able to Fight back?????? What........huddle in a damn Corner?????? Go into those BS "Gun-Free Zones"??????? Soldiers come in, you Protest that it is a Gun-Free.....*BANG*. "Next one to open your Mouth is Dead!!! (In Russian Accent) ". Sorry, but that Shooter that targeted the Theater Years ago, he targeted that place because it was a Gun-Free Zone, same as others. Because they knew no one would be able to Defend themselves.
Sorry, but NO ONE has the "Right" or the "Authority" to tell Law Abiding Citizens to just be good little Helpless, Defenseless Victims. People have the Right to Protect and Defend themselves however they can.
==BS Reactions - "Just Call the Police". Really???? Look at Kansas. There are Police there that did nothing while another Officer went after Children. Also there have been MANY other Reports of Officers doing shady stuff. Anyone would see, if they are Stealing, Unlawfully Shooting, Selling Drugs,......yeah, they are more than likely Selling Firearms as well.
===There are MANY good Officers, doing the Right thing, and doing their Job, but all the Bad ones are giving them a bad reputation, unfortunately.
---Oh, and President Biden saying AR-15s are "Weapons of War"?????? Um.......you mean M-16 Rifles. AR-15s, are the Civilian Versions that only have SAFE, and FIRE (1 Round at a time). M-16s have SAFE, FIRE (1 Round at a Time), and Burst (3 Rounds at a Time). Can't believe Biden thinks that the People can not fight back, unless we have F-18s or Nuclear Weapons. So he would be all for Murdering Innocent Men, Women and Children by using Nuclear Weapons on the People????
But even if they try to get Rifles Banned.......they will NOT get absolutely all of them. That would be damn near impossible to do. Not to mention, it has been established that a good amount of Law Enforcement will NOT help ATF, or any other Federal Government Officers from Seizing Firearms from Law Abiding People, and Infringing their Right.
---Oh, also, heard about a Woman trying to get a Firearm, was waiting for the Process to get done, because she had a Restraining Order against her Ex, and she was fearing for her Life. She had been calling to find out what the hold up was. She died. Ex Killed her while she was waiting to get the OK to have a Firearm to Protect herself. Kind of makes me wonder how many other People have died because the Process takes too damn long, or a "May Issue State" did not feel they should have Protection, or because the Person got Denied for some BS Reason. Wonder how many Wrongful Death Lawsuits have been swept under the Rug due to the BS.

Oh we are not done yet. Love how there are those who want to Force Religion onto People, and also want to have Religion telling Government what to do. Last I checked, the 1st Amendment says there is to be NO Established Religion, but that People can practice their Religion they have.
Oh, but a lot of Republicans want to create a Abortion Ban, because it is "God's Will". Sorry, but that Violates the 1st Amendment by forcing a Religious View onto the People. Not to mention, saying Life begins at Conception........yet for those who are Jewish, they believe Life Begins the moment you are Born. So sorry, you are going against another Religious Group.
Also, unless you have a Medical Degree, and are in Medical, you have absolutely no say in when a Doctor can act to save a Woman's Life, who is Bleeding out, because she is having a Miscarriage, or having a Pregnancy Complication. You want to force a Woman to go through that, and possibly Die?????? Well, that is a Open/Shut Wrongful Death Lawsuit.
Oh, and for all those who are for forcing a Child to go through a Pregnancy, and in some cases, force her to share Parental Rights with the Rapist, you should be removed from Office and Investigated!!!!!!
Also love how there are those saying someone under 18 is not grown enough to understand a Abortion, but wanting to force a Baby onto that Kid/Child. Wow, sounds like all this more and more is that Republicans are against Women like no other.

Yeah, one other little bit: Social Security has NOTHING to do with the Budget. The PEOPLE put into that, and when they Retire, they can take that Money that they put into it, and Live off of that. Oh, but some Republicans want to do away with it, and take what Money is left, and use it for their own little BS. Sorry, but not all of us are born with a Silver Spoon up our ###. Sounds like they want a Nation of Homeless Elderly and Disabled, also wanting to force People to work till they Die. Hell, 80%+ pf the American People support having Social Security and Medicare. But Republicans dont want it, and want to do away with it, going against what the People are wanting. That just shows they are against the People, and only for the Rich and Powerful.
----Oh, and there are those wanting to do away with the VA, meaning nothing for Veterans????? So I guess you dont want People signing up for the Military anymore????? Because you know what will happen then?????? Vets and People would tell those thinking of Signing up, to not do it, because if they come back Disabled, they will not be able to get taken care of. Try and Introduce a Draft?????? Yeah, there will be so many saying what you can do with your Draft. Unless there are Rich Kids being Drafted......as SOLDIERS, and not getting deferments like Trump and other Rich Kids did, why should anyone else want to go for that?????? Sorry, but unless you are willing to fight for the Country as well, or have your own Kids Fighting for the Country, you have no Right to tell others to Sign up.

There are lots of other items I got, but those are the Important ones.

 

[mrdude]

I'm looking forward to the Red Tsunami tomorrow and the ensuing lefty meltdowns.

 

[wartutor]

Yes red wave coming...crying, milk, and tea sat out at the designated safe places for dem cry babies.

 

[stanleyopar2000]

Between Sinema and/or Manchin taking donations from the opposition and voting accordingly, the Republicans already functionally control the Senate. I don't see them flipping enough seats to take control of the House. So basically nothing changes where the deadlock is concerned. Republicans have signaled they intend to try to make deep cuts to Social Security and Medicare, as well as trying to ban abortion nationwide, but any such efforts will be vetoed by Biden. Any further accomplishments Biden wants to see attributed to his administration prior to 2024 will have to go through executive action.

Same ol' same ol', neither party is going to take any meaningful action against out of control corporate profiteering/price gouging, thus the race to the bottom continues in that regard. Perhaps more interesting are local/statewide ballot initiatives available in a lot of places, for example the legality of psychedelics is on the ballot where I'm living. Another state (Louisiana IIRC, I'd have to double check) is considering reinstating slavery in some form. Two very different Americas with two very different ideas of what constitutes "freedom," clearly.

I hope you're right. I'd rather have nothing happen with gridlock then a lot of shit

 

[snails1221]

I'm looking forward to the Red Tsunami tomorrow and the ensuing lefty meltdowns.

Honestly as someone that leans right, I'm expecting a blue wave.

 

[Taleweaver]

I can't say I'm following this circus closely, but i hope Republicans aren't as moronic as they appear in the soundbites the Google algorithm fetches me. I mean...

* i just want to cut government spending
* if we win, we'll just block everything Biden purposes and/or invent all sorts of lawsuits, roadblocks and further delays
* if i lose, it's because the dems cheat
* I'm talking tough and/or am posing with a gun
* some scandals about an athlete called Walker who's running for a seat

Meanwhile at the polling stations: "yup... The Republicans are expected to win back a majority".

Not sure what to make of Biden's assertion that democracy itself is at stake. With all the anti voting laws being proposed, Supreme Court doing the taliban's bidding and Republican politicians taking conspiracy theories seriously i can see why he says that, but c'mon... It's a bit easy to scaremonger people like that. How about giving your people something that unites everyone rather than widen the divide?

 

[Smoker1]

I can't say I'm following this circus closely, but i hope Republicans aren't as moronic as they appear in the soundbites the Google algorithm fetches me. I mean...

* i just want to cut government spending
* if we win, we'll just block everything Biden purposes and/or invent all sorts of lawsuits, roadblocks and further delays
* if i lose, it's because the dems cheat
* I'm talking though and/or am posing with a gun
* some scandals about an athlete called Walker who's running for a seat

Meanwhile at the polling stations: "yup... The Republicans are expected to win back a majority".

Not sure what to make of Biden's assertion that democracy itself is at stake. With all the anti voting laws being proposed, Supreme Court doing the taliban's bidding and Republican politicians taking conspiracy theories seriously i can see why he says that, but c'mon... It's a bit easy to scaremonger people like that. How about giving your people something that unites everyone rather than widen the divide?

Also heard about how if Dems take control, Republicans would Stall any and ALL Budget Bills unless it has what they want in it, like scrapping SSI, Medicare, VA Benefits, Nation-Wide Abortion Ban, you name it, and hold the Country Hostage until they get what they want.

 

[Taleweaver]

Also heard about how if Dems take control, Republicans would Stall any and ALL Budget Bills unless it has what they want in it, like scrapping SSI, Medicare, VA Benefits, Nation-Wide Abortion Ban, you name it, and hold the Country Hostage until they get what they want.

Hmmm... That sounds like Mitch, yes. But am i missing the goal of these elections here? I thought that the majority would get to work with the government to get things done(or not). How exactly can you block things with a minority?

Like... I'm not going to win anything (especially due to me not participating). But can i just block and stall things for the heck of it? I would think not, but again... Maybe I'm misunderstanding what this is about...

 

[Smoker1]

Hmmm... That sounds like Mitch, yes. But am i missing the goal of these elections here? I thought that the majority would get to work with the government to get things done(or not). How exactly can you block things with a minority?

Like... I'm not going to win anything (especially due to me not participating). But can i just block and stall things for the heck of it? I would think not, but again... Maybe I'm misunderstanding what this is about...

No idea how they plan on doing that. More than likely to stall things that Require a certain Number of Votes to go through. But you swear, Republicans, and most Dems are all about themselves, their Bank Accounts, and other Wealthy People like them.

 

[LainaGabranth]

The right keeps hamming up this idea of like, a leftist meltdown but I just don't see it happening tbh.

 

[Deleted member 586536]

The right keeps hamming up this idea of like, a leftist meltdown but I just don't see it happening tbh.

Think more so of a disappointment if anything else, but on the other hand, it's a somewhat expected disappointment.



I have a belief(call it a hope with a logical reason behind it) that that Roe v Wade may of thrown all the polling data way the fuck off. Since polling data usually takes likely voters, or people have voted in the past and are registered. Not people who are registered but haven't voted, or people that haven't registered, but can register.
I somewhat doubt it to some extent, and if it's going to change anything at all, we'll have to be a wait and see to what extent, it could be a drop in the ocean, or substantial.
On the other other hand, that's not the only boosting factor. Generation Z. Republicans tend to be of older age (primarily the older generation, aka boomers, most of the demographic goes that way.)

Meaning that a good majority of the support from the right wing, is older folk.
While younger generations tend to be more left leaning (and there's a numbers advantage) Combined the fact that the GOP has actively been against LGBTQ people. Gay people since gay marriage is on the chopping block(along with fear mongering/hatred). Trans on the block, for the ability to even transition at all as a person, and or bills that are designed to target them and make their lives harder. (and also hatred and dogma, and refusing to just understand them)

Basically there's a lot of factors, we're kinda in a unique scenario where:
Everyone doesn't like Biden (the populous picked him because he was not Trump, not because they liked him)
But also the overall populous doesn't like Trump a likes or Trump, the face of the GOP
So now we have all these alikes either sucking up to Trump, or effectively being a mini Trump, in a midterm election.
Which again, bears repeating, wouldn't have been an issue for the GOP to win, if it wasn't for Roe getting shot down.

 

[Smoker1]

For those in the US, and those in Canada, think you should look at Videos made by Colion Noir and Tony Elian on YouTube, or Instagram. They raise VERY valid Points on some Issues.

 

[FAST6191]

If we are sharing videos on predictions then for an analysis I quite like


Does cover the supposed issues, troubles for voters in various camps (or more likely independents), degrees to which things matter (turns out food in your belly, roof over your head, not freezing in winter, ability to get to work and possibility of a retirement one day matter more to people than some tiny fraction of the population that are likely to be just fine either way), likely outcomes and ties it all back to the financial markets as it is a financial channel and thus "up, down, sideways, make money either way" comes into play and there you care more about predicting what is going to happen so you can plan accordingly than the actual results. Is a bit middle of the road and narrow in the polls section, though does cover some issues with that approach, compared to some that were comparing the dozens of polling options, historical skews in them, likely current skews and more besides.

Actions taken are interesting though. The democrats are sending heavy hitters to what were historically safe seats and locations (general election theory says ignore those in safe places, saving what you have to do to make sure they actually go vote rather than think it pointless as it is in the bag and suffer an upset, and instead go to battlegrounds). Some have pondered whether sending Biden or an endorsement from him is electoral poison in a way some consider Trump to be so occupy him with something banal and instead send someone people like (or general party endorsements), others wonder if it is actually safe is not so safe.

I am not sure what I have for exit polling or live counts right now, early voting is already known in several places (and it is noted the US right wing tends not to favour that as much as going in person), and might just be better to wait and see the results.

 

[Taleweaver]

The right keeps hamming up this idea of like, a leftist meltdown but I just don't see it happening tbh.

For that to happen the US needs to have an actual leftist party first.

 

[djpannda]

Red Wave? Doubt it.
R might gain control of the House but if Early Voting is compared with the last 2 elections. D turn out is higher than R and Better Then 2018 ( when D took the House)
There is a Good Chance Ds Keep the House and Senate.

what I think is going to be the Driver is the "Unaffiliated" vote if you look at the Tread it grew from 8% to almost 11% from 2018-2020? Why ? In some areas is R changing their status to Independents, who will keep voting for R in local but have voted D for National (Warnock, Biden) But either way D picked up at least 3mil and R lost 1mil from 18"

 

[Jayro]

I'm looking forward to the Red Tsunami tomorrow and the ensuing lefty meltdowns.

Not happening, my guy. Your side managed to piss off every blue voting woman with Roe being overturned, so get ready for the Blue Tsunami. After all, your side asked for it by pulling that bullshit.

 

[djpannda]

Not happening, my guy. Your side managed to piss off every blue voting woman with Roe being overturned, so get ready for the Blue Tsunami. After all, your side asked for it by pulling that bullshit.

the problem is Most people Voting R, do not understand and Refused to learn how Elections actually work. They gullibly listed to Uncle Bobs Facebook post stating "if we don't get the results at 6-8pm when polls closed then its FRAUD!z"
They refused to understand 300 mil votes take time to count, and not to mention that in states like PA, Republcian legislators passed laws to not allowing counting mail in ballots until elections day, and in some counties might not even start until the polls close, Republican officials purposely delayed Counting Mail in votes, so they can complain that they are not counted in a timely fashion

 

[Hanafuda]

Not happening, my guy. Your side managed to piss off every blue voting woman with Roe being overturned, so get ready for the Blue Tsunami. After all, your side asked for it by pulling that bullshit.

I'm a fairly conservatively-minded person wrt what's the government's business and what's not ... for example I don't see the authority for administrative agencies anywhere in the federal Constitution and think they should all be abolished, or else an amendment passed to enable such bureaucracy. I know, I know ... 100 years late for talk like that. But anyway, I've been wondering what effect Dobbs will have on this election too. All it did was reverse a bad decision that proclaimed a Constitutional right from inference and wishful thinking ... the Constitution itself certainly guarantees no such "right." We are now back to the federal government having no say on the abortion issue, and it being left up to each State to set its own laws ... the way it always was for the first 200 years of the US, not the most recent 50 yrs. So, what's the fallout? I would not be surprised at all if, as you suggest, there is a backlash today by women who are angry about losing this "right."

I guess we'll know soon enough.