# Wars of the 2020s and 2030s



## FAST6191 (Oct 8, 2020)

American politics, which seems to dominate this section right now, is amusing and can have some interesting data to look at but it is fairly pedestrian when all is said and done. Some are also decrying 2020 as an absolutely awful year to live in (which to be fair is more amusing than "OMG celebrities dying" that apparently characterised some previous year that I can't even remember right now) but what if it is in fact just the start of the really fun times. To that end worrying which old guy with nominal power will fire up the money printer and where they will point it to kill us all is put aside to figure out what will likely kill us all in the mid term.

Those who do not study history are doomed to repeat it is an often spoken phrase, those who contemplate alternative histories are often better still at that one.
With that in mind a recent video I quite enjoyed


In it he details likely sources of conflict over the coming decades, most of which make the little riots and present fun in the US, or indeed even the wet dreams of those that want it to go hot, look like a schoolyard shoving match. Water wars, population ageing (China being especially prone to this -- a sizeable chunk of its population is 45-late 50s, and not necessarily the healthiest, one child policy also means one child became the fashion going forward. That said they are far from alone in this one with Russia not so far behind in many ways and most western countries doing little better though there it is more likely just a collapse of the pension system), US isolationism, failures of border states in central Asia (oh dear) and dubious borders made by incompetents (or maybe not...) that will struggle to keep going.

Speaking of wet dreams then running around the woods in a Hawaiian shirt and a tactical vest requires one to actually be able to run around in the woods. To that end those looking down the barrel, pun intended, of being able to be dragged into military service in one of the biggest conflicts the world has ever seen might actually need to be able to run around in the woods. 

This might be rather harder if obesity hits 50%
https://www.ajpmonline.org/article/S0749-3797(12)00146-8/fulltext
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6257099/
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1909301
Or more of a youth focused option if we are to be looking at the likely cannon fodder.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5876828/

Oh dear. Indeed every branch of the military has been warning of this for a while


(That being 2012 for those just watching the embedded version, and prepared before that).
Special forces discussions are equally fascinating here -- a lot are claiming massively hard times staffing roles here and running their teams under capacity as it stands today.

I don't know the extent the youth of the world are geared for it as well. There were some interesting reports coming out of China a while back as they attempted to spin up their military into doing a light war games/training mission type deal and it is a known factor otherwise ( https://www.rand.org/blog/2018/11/chinas-military-has-no-combat-experience-does-it-matter.html https://thediplomat.com/2014/01/chinas-deceptively-weak-and-dangerous-military/ ). Outside that and for elsewhere the rates of PTSD of those coming out and in civilian world those on head meds though do tell a story that might be worth looking at -- overprescription might be a thing but at the same time there are some underlying causes and while the physical can be solved (takes a while -- boot, basic and the like maybe taking a couple of years) the mental aspect is not to be overlooked.

On Africa then we are also heading into something of a nice space race part 2 in the coming years. Some predict this could be a massive source of wealth for it (being near the equator does rather drop your fuel costs, and when basically everything to do with space travel revolves around fuel costs and payloads...)

Discuss.


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## JuanBaNaNa (Nov 6, 2020)

Holy shit FAST. I never thought about seeing you here.
What's more surprising to me though, is the proper lack of discussion on this thread, given the forum it's posted.
I guess you didn't expect regular folks reading a text wall followed by a 25min video, when the attention span averages 2 minutes, 8 at max. lol

But I feel weird being here commenting on this thread because it  makes me feel like you'd probably think I'm trying to bother you. Trust me I'm not.

After that beautifully written text wall, giving me some insights about the point of the thread, I'm kinda seeing  the purpose of that 25min video. I even dare to say that it inspired you to create such topic.
I did like your jokes here and there, they're very funny. And it's telling me that you'll accept jokes on posts 

A warning has to be made here: I'm recalling everything by memory, based on info acquired in books and specialized video containing scientific based divulgation.
So no sources.

I can't help but point out the first topic about modern / future wars. Water War.

I know as a fact and pretty much based on the scientific method, that Global Warming will cause serious yroubles in the future. Luckily for you and me, said troubles won't truly affect this planet's habitants until next couple centuries.
Also, according to scientific studies made in Antarctica, shows that this climate change / global warming isn't the first nor the very last this planet has had / will suffer.
Climate change and global warming has been part of the Earth's cycle and lifespan (taken Earth as this planet's proper name) and such data has made scientist believe that there was an advanced civilization before the very first Mammals appeared. This kinda points out to a reptilian based lifeform, advanced enough to leave traces of their past pollution. Scientist believe on such idea because reptiles were far more evolved before mammals began to appear. Sometimes, the idea of "_Who will replace humanity in the future" _often brings reptiles to the top of the food chain and on the top of all future civilization.

I literally can't see Water being a problem in the future because scientist has created material that filters Sea Water that literally separates minerals (salts) frim Water molecules.
This material could possibly avoid any chance of civilization engaging in wars for water. And many believe such war won't happen in the next decades, let alone next couple centuries.

About one child policy, it's been shown in recent studies that humans are not having more than one baby per pregnancy period. Apparently, human fertility is slowly stopping... *naturally.*
_And here I'd put an awful machist joke about not being against women killing babies, but being uncomfortable with the idea of women making decisions_ (it's a joke for fuchs sake... dark humor is my specialty... is so dark that it might try to steal your belongings)
So... when you brought the topic, is because you think that overpopulation decreasing could cause modern war or talking about fertility rates? I'm kinda lost there, and we're going full circle because, in my point of view, the less people we have the better the world will be.

The guy in the video is a bit biased, he keeps bringing out China, Russia, North Korea (where vegetables rules above all) and USA.
I give you that, most of the times I don't care what happens in other countries, so I can't provide opinions on who's the nation with the bigger club because I don't care for such matters. What I do give you thought, is that in the future, First World Countries will collapse thanks to their awful consumer based culture.
And at this point of my post, I bet you someone's going to: "mY cOuNtRy mIghT haVe fLawS bUt it'S a GrEaT nAtIon hAiL pAtrIotiSm" (_waving flag appears on the background - patriotism intensifies) mind you never said which country... but...
Yeah well..._
And the point I'm expressing is very well addresed on the video.

I loled at the part where the video goes: _Countries that the United States is legally obligated to defend._
Well... nice Oil chart there.

*GASP* IN THE NEXT 30 YEARS USA WILL LEAVE MIDDLE EAST COUNTRIES ALONE?
Nooo! Those countries needs a way to understand the importance and power that fast food and bacon based breakfast has on populations!! How are middle east countries supposed to learn the meaning of a country's worth without patriots to teach them? Bad middle east, bad! Go to your room for you have no more oil to export  trade for a BigMac with Chicken McNuggets!

inb4: Angry muricans in 3...2...1... I'll leave before I get soaked in patriotism/nationalism/supremacy.

It wouldn't surprise me to start an actual discussion.
lol


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## scubersteve (Nov 6, 2020)

so um, climate change, leading to places that are already warm becoming physically unbearable for any human to live in (alternatively: leading to icecaps melting, leading to rising water levels and flooding of many heavily populated areas). the people won't instantly die. they'll try to migrate. in masses. inevitably, they'll hit borders, and seeing the worldwide rise in (more visible?) nationalism i wouldn't be super surprised if entire cities/countries/etc just straight up get wiped out from not having the means nor being allowed to migrate out of places that are no longer inhabitable


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## FAST6191 (Nov 7, 2020)

I frequently post in this section. Usually to sip some devil's advocaat for things I see under represented or attempt to advance some arguments beyond shit flinging, still come here though and don't have half the dread some others seem to express about this section.

Anyway

Fertility rates has been something of an interest of mine for a while now. Has all sorts of interesting effects.

The most basic is most economic systems are based on the idea of taxing future generations to pay for the current stuff. If you are paying a few million old people (and their insane medical bills) to sit around doing nothing (for increasing numbers of years too as modern medicine and living means it is not longer 5 years from retirement to death) then as they did not save up during life the government gets to pay for it, or face a mass starvation of old people (which are the only ones that vote so no politician which only cares about the next election will let that happen).
This is OK if everybody had 4 or more kids each (simple replacement is a little over 2 per woman to account for the gays, the plain undesirables and the handful of car crashes if we have basically cured disease otherwise*) such that they can all kick in a little bit to pay for it and still have something for them.
Worse is a lot of places don't pay into their pension pot (it is a lot of money you could use for other things that have more immediate effects -- paying 1 million a year in to a pot and skipping a year means  2 million the next or 3 the year after if you continue skipping even if you don't account for interest and inflation, and interest is what such things usually rely upon to work) either and thus end up with an under funded pension pot. Countries, corporations, individuals and all things in between doing this one. 

Current rates of fertility per woman are rather less than 2 in most places that people want to live ( https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2127rank.html ). This means population shrink and said smaller amount of population in work gets to pay for all those old people, which also means they are not going to have time to go have kids, and as a woman goes above about 30 it gets a lot harder to have kids and easy pregnancies (as well as have grandparents help babysit if they are now old enough to also need nappies changing).
Giving women the pill kind of doubled the workforce overnight so there was that.
You can import some more people to try to stave this off for a while but that has its own problems -- you are typically (or specifically if you do the whole points based immigration system) dragging the best and brightest out from their home countries (or states -- see brain drain in the US) and also fundamentally change the nature of the country if you go far enough (people do bring their own culture with them), to say nothing of the economics there (lot of people come, live in squalor and then send everything they can back "home", also while driving down labour costs and driving up housing costs).

*curing disease is also a fun one in and of itself. In doing so we basically stopped Darwinian evolution and so all sorts of odd things are propagating down generations that never would have had a chance before (if you are allergic to common foods and have all sorts of mental and physical problems then 200 years ago you are not going to make it, today no great problem).

What aspects of the population are reproducing is also a fun one, see what some term "IQ shredders" (as a hint it is not those men and women with all those nice degrees that are having all the kids).

This has all sorts of interesting effects on things in the world. Most places have some form of soft encouragement to have kids (I still think the Danish adverts are hilarious), I am curious to see what becomes of common law marriage (Canada and Australia have some form of this, basically you don't have to get married to someone to have it effectively count as one and thus splitting up from a long term partner might well see you have to pay support), more fun places like Russia ban men getting vasectomies unless they already have kids and are above a certain age ( https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2017/june/1496239200/ceridwen-dovey/snip#mtr covers some stuff here, further to this see all those rich 20 somethings in the US getting snipped to avoid being trapped/spermjacked https://nypost.com/2017/05/27/hampt...ng-vasectomies-so-golddiggers-cant-trap-them/ ).

Personally I go with I have no kids myself, don't want them and way too late anyway (I say but I do know of a 80 something with a son in high school, not to mention artificial wombs seem to be within sight -- already can do sheep which counts as complex mammal) but even without that "why is some government's poor economic planning my problem?". There might well be perks to having fewer people (see the boom following the black death) but there will be hardships before then.


As for some of the other stuff. Cheap desalination would be a game changer in a lot of cases (the water will still be there, not like it is going to fly off into space or hide underground**, just not in nice fresh water sources). Whether it arrives in time and is deployable at great enough scale is a different matter. Desalination itself has never been hard either, just energy consuming.

**another fun one actually. A lot of things tap into underground water sources and they renew over thousands of years, not half a dozen. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...er-california-drought-aquifers-hidden-crisis/

On old civilisations then meh. Personally I would be content being the seed for a swarm of nanobots that go out and take the volume of space we can get to with light speed travel. That is sci fi though and not future stuff. Though calculations of whether human intelligence life could arise again if we all went pop tomorrow before the sun decided to gobble the earth up don't necessarily favour it (if we have got all the easy oil and don't have ? million years to wait for some new stuff to form then does the next civilisation have enough to kick start their industrialisation and thus get off the planet?).

As far as the middle east. I don't see their strategic importance fading any time soon -- even if oil becomes boring (don't see it too soon) they have a lot of minerals (hopefully nobody finds lithium under a rock there -- it is rather rare rare so watch out https://www.mining-technology.com/features/top-ten-biggest-lithium-mines/ if you found some and everybody is supposed to be on electric cars), geographic access to various things, Islam does make things a fun one if you get some nice radicals in power (though rates of atheism in such places is encouraging if you think that will help), most borders there are pointless drawn by clueless (though no politician wants to shrink a country lest they appear weak) and yeah. Not to mention there will always be somewhere else to send in the boys as it is cheaper than buying it, or cheaper for the one whispering in the ear (see Banana Wars).


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## notimp (Nov 7, 2020)

scubersteve said:


> (alternatively: leading to icecaps melting, leading to rising water levels and flooding of many heavily populated areas)


The rich ones can build artificial shores and sea barriers, which is the cost effective option if you dont want to relocate a bunch of people, which they are doing right now. Over time relocation might be needed in certain areas, but if that can be stretched over decades, thats not that much of an issue. You already have seen those relocation projects in the US after floods in St. Louis I believe.

Poorer ones cant do it, making them much poorer as a result (+2 flood every year  ) and that rather quickly.


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## JuanBaNaNa (Nov 7, 2020)

FAST6191 said:


> The most basic is most economic systems are based on the idea of taxing future generations to pay for the current stuff.



And this is why in the future, everything will go to shit with something like another pandemic (not so hard to start in Asian countries lol)
I think that International debt has a bigger roke in the economic downfall of a country rather than tax payers.
I understand, taxing is what makes investments work as they should.

And this is just my personal taste, but I still believe that the less people we have, the better the world will be.
I often find myself thinking that Capitalism is the solution.
I know that's such a primitive idea... if we can call 200 years ago ideas _primitive _but Capitalism will have everyone producing, and everyone would contribute to the evonomic system of each country adding value and actual sense for international trades.
Then I drink Coffee and get to the conclusion that well being of economy could bring families deciding to get more children for forced labour  and the idea of having _something to do_ fades.



FAST6191 said:


> see all those rich 20 somethings in the US getting snipped to avoid being trapped/spermjacked


lol

Why do you want any more americans when half the population votes for someone like Trump to rule over the greatest nation in the world?
A country's leader defines the general ideas of it's population.
Trump barely knows how to read, he barely speaks english. Son of immigrants yet wanting all immigrants out of the country... and most importantly: He never built a wall!
I bet you that Coronavirus was brought by Springbreakers onto Acapulco and Puerto Vallarta and then spread all over. We were doing fine until Spring arrived and brought patriotism with it. *shakes cane* Damn patriots get out of my yard!
Just like they spread AH1N1 influenza and the worst of all... _patriotism... _*shivers*

But hey! The porn they produce is at least good.
The point of all of this is: Do you really get worried about not having enough people, when said people can grow to become Trump supporters/extreme religious radicals/supremacist?
Yuck...
Live and let die.



FAST6191 said:


> Desalination itself has never been hard either, just energy consuming


Heck, it can even be done at home with pots, bottles and tubes to conduct sublimation.
But I see your point.



FAST6191 said:


> On old civilisations then meh. Personally I would be content being the seed for a swarm of nanobots that go out and take the volume of space we can get to with light speed travel. That is sci fi though and not future stuff


As far as I know, _we_ already have Nanobots that literally eats plastic, spilled oils, pollution particles in the ozone layer and beyond... literally bots that regenerates/grows missing organs...
We're very sci-fi already. 
As for light speed... I'm *very sure *you know why we haven't got there yet, and why we might *never be able to. *Anyone with a basic understanding in spatial relativity / physics, understands Light Speed paradox.



FAST6191 said:


> Though calculations of whether human intelligence life could arise again if we all went pop tomorrow


Now this is where I'm super bias because everyone else but you and me sees AI as it's portrayed in movies.
I think it's fair to say that you see AI as a potential case of self awareness... but if I have to say anything about AI it's this: *It's a good movie*.



FAST6191 said:


> As far as the middle east. I don't see their strategic importance fading any time soon


Unfortunately not... but, that's just my hate for civilization speaking.
I'm not racist, I hate everyone equally.



FAST6191 said:


> if you found some and everybody is supposed to be on electric cars)


Just yesterday I was reading that Naucalpan (a place near my state) is producing the quote on quote _first mass production of electric automobiles _
Not sure what they meant with that thought... maybe they meant _the very first produced by mexico. _Just a fun coincidence.



FAST6191 said:


> before the sun decided to gobble the earth up don't necessarily favour it (if we have got all the easy oil and don't have ? million years to wait for some new stuff to form


Hopefully, tomorrow humanity will realize that Solar Cells exists... _hopefully before the sun grows into a massive Red Star everyone has already taken advantage of Solar Cells producing energy._
*Kidding you not, I saw a very funny video of Patriots being against Solar cells fearing to consume the Sun.*
*And deciding that Arabic numbers shouldn't be used... because... reasons**...*



FAST6191 said:


> Islam does make things a fun one if you get some nice radicals in power (though rates of atheism in such places is encouraging if you think that will help)



I'm not an atheist thanks to god. I consider myself *agnostic*.
And I think that government based on science is literally the solution to this world's problem.
Imagine science ruling over Pitics and Religion. Jist imagine that.



FAST6191 said:


> most borders there are pointless drawn by clueless (though no politician wants to shrink a country lest they appear weak)


Haha lol. Belize has the smol stick.
What the duck is *a Belize*? 



FAST6191 said:


> Not to mention there will always be somewhere else to send in the boys as it is cheaper than buying it, or cheaper for the one whispering in the ear (see Banana Wars)



What do you mean by: _Somewhere else to send the bois._
You're talking about the thing I'm thinking about? Or...do you mean something else?
Ah yeah, the good ol' Banana Wars...if I'm not mistaken, Coconut Oil brought a similar conflict?


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## FAST6191 (Nov 7, 2020)

JuanMena said:


> And this is why in the future, everything will go to shit with something like another pandemic (not so hard to start in Asian countries lol)
> I think that International debt has a bigger roke in the economic downfall of a country rather than tax payers.
> I understand, taxing is what makes investments work as they should.
> 
> ...



Debt is mostly a symptom rather than a cause. For now at least there is still enough stuff being sucked out of the ground or otherwise created that a bank can be sure they get their money one way or the other (money is good, "your mine/factory/business/section of land/... I own it now" works if you have to).

More people = more chance of great scientist, engineer, statecrafter or similar to make things really work, and more to fund such hobbies as well if done properly.

On Trump. Do you really see him as that much worse than any other politician? Run of the mill, banal and boring, easily forgotten in 10 years. I have seen the "this politico is the worst ever" dance so many times in so many locations now that eh.

As far as somewhere else to send the boys in.
There will always be somewhere else in the world that if it was controlled would provide some nice stuff to dig out of the ground, pick fruit/roots/whatever from an annoying plant that only grows there at commercially viable levels, stop/fund some drug production be it to the nation as a w hole or to the people whispering in the ear of the one with keys to the tank.
Fabricate some reason to go in (they have weapons, their human rights are awful, they make drugs, they kidnapped some of ours, they attacked one of ours... pick whichever excuse fits best) over the course of a year or two, send in some spooky types to destabilise their economy (if you can dig it out of the ground then most countries usually then have that as a key component of their economy) and finally parachute some of your highly trained types in to shoot up the joint in the rear while you land a tank on the beach with your squadrons of brainwashed 20 year olds ready to fight and die for someone's profit in 10 years or so when it is all back up and running. Been that way for thousands of years, not likely to end too soon unless we get some nice nanobots that do fun things rather than just eat waste for us* and all become a hive mind.

*the building organs thing is more stem cell slurry over a 3d printed frame rather than nanobots.


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## JuanBaNaNa (Nov 7, 2020)

FAST6191 said:


> More people = more chance of great scientist, engineer, statecrafter or similar to make things really work, and more to fund such hobbies as well if done properly.


I'm still a bit bias with the idea of having lots of people.
I sometimes find myself thinking the following, and I promise I have a point:
If we get rid off people with Genetic diseases we may erradicate such diseases, for there's no more people with such genetics.
The same can be applied with people that are criminals, or later becomes one. 
People who's mentally I'll ir just plain people that lives out of the government's aid.

For instance, fat people in USA that's literally so fat that they get economic support from the government in order to keep them living a _decent life._
If I'm not mistaken, France had (or still has?) economic support for people that has more than 3 children or something like that.
Other countries like the UK (I'm still confused if UK = England) pays it's people for being obese because obesity = handicapped.
In my shit country, women who are single mothers gets economic aid from the Government and other institutions, while children with Cancer are dying because government literally neglects the necessary medication for their treatment. The problem is that *said women are 16 years old.
*
The point is: More population does *not* equal better human beings... or at least persons interested in getting education in order to become:


FAST6191 said:


> great scientist, engineer, statecrafter or similar to make things really work


Nuh-uh.

This is going to sound super really duper bad... but at the rate women on Africa has children, they should already  have great scientist by now... don't they?
Oh right... they can't because women in Africa gets raped everyday, women in africa and other continents are still sold/exchanged for cows/pigs.
While children, if not victims of weird african rituals (trust me, I've seen hundreds of videos on gore sites) they get raised and trained by militias and the cycle repeats itself.

In this case I would like to counter your argument of more people equals more scientists, engineers and things alike with:

Every country prospers mostly by their Internal Production
A country that produces TV's will sell TV's. Countries where vegetables (or things such as Vanilla/Chocolate/Coffee)  grows, harvests and sells such products.
i say, why don't we put factories in places where life is neglected and make them produce something so they can prosper?

What's best from this totally fictional scenario:

Africa getting International money as aid?
Or setting literal factories, teach them agriculture or things alike, make them produce in their own land, and later sell said products for economic prosper?

Let alone Africa, I'm just using the word to express the point about why "_capitalism" _could be a solution on poverty and potential economic warfares.



FAST6191 said:


> On Trump. Do you really see him as that much worse than any other politician? Run of the mill, banal and boring, easily forgotten in 10 years. I have seen the "this politico is the worst ever" dance so many times in so many locations now that eh.


Oh no, no, no... I know he's a very stupid leader. And I'm ashamed to admit that the president of my country is *FAR WORSE THAN TRUMP.*
Literally way, way worse.
Politicians are good for nothing... and I can say the same for doctors, policeman, teachers, etc.
I brought Trump to the discussion to clarify that Leaders (Presidents and alike) are a *clear impersonation of the culture of each country.*

About the bois... I guess it's implicit that we know what we're referring to. 
And mostly I don't care about said bois nor about the organizations that requires such bois.
I don't mind brainwashed bois dying for nothing. 
*In fact I think it's cute.*

In an ideal world:
*EVERYONE GETS THE SAME OPPORTUNITIES AT THE SAME TIME. ONLY THOSE WITH THE REQUIRED THRIVE/INTELECT/INTEREST GOES FORWARD WHILE THE OTHERS REMAINS THE SAME*




FAST6191 said:


> *the building organs thing is more stem cell slurry over a 3d printed frame rather than nanobots.


Maybe got it confused with nanobots that destroys infected cells (like cancer cells or cells with viruses)


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## FAST6191 (Apr 22, 2021)

Got an interesting follow up video from the same guy as one of the main videos in the opening

Crisis of the 21st century


Some interesting stats and historical patterns to ponder in that. Wonder if it will play out as might be indicated there, or if we get a nice black swan or general tech leap to put it off.
For those not familiar with black swans then


That or if we will get a real disease that does big boy damage (or maybe the antibiotic resistance from the opening video actually comes to pass in a big way), or a nice solar flare.


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## JuanBaNaNa (Sep 27, 2021)

OMG @FAST6191 this aged really fine.
We predicted the future about Pandemics, Radicalism taking over Middle Eastern Countries and the rise of bad movies.


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## FAST6191 (Sep 27, 2021)

JuanMena said:


> OMG @FAST6191 this aged really fine.
> We predicted the future about Pandemics, Radicalism taking over Middle Eastern Countries and the rise of bad movies.


Pandemics have been predicted for years, and there were some half fun attempts (few even somewhat successful against animals -- BSE/CJD, bird flu, pigs in China, soon to probably be deer, to name but a few). Or if you prefer then there was not a lot since HIV/AIDs got boring and BSE/CJD human infections appeared minimal, give or take the odd worse than other years seasonal flu, before ramping up with SARS, MURS, antibiotic resistant TB, antibiotic resistant staph (MRSA), Ebola, Zika, some anti vax types meaning US doctors that had not treated abroad in some third world shithole were seeing things for the first times in decades... get an actually seriously contagious disease with some proper lethality ( https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1607/rr-1 https://transportgeography.org/cont...ction-number-r0-of-major-infectious-diseases/ , maybe measles meets sleeping sickness or measles meets ebola and naturally with a bit of an incubation period and asymptomatic spreading time) and that would have been fun. As it stands they probably blew their load early calling for end times here.
The middle east has been a hotbed since ancient times, not too likely to stop any time soon (might look at the Sykes Picot agreement for the modern catalyst, not that it particularly needed one). Hardly the greatest prediction either.
Bad films have always happened, though they were at least usually counterbalanced by something more reasonable and with some cultural staying power. Whether the cultural staying power is also the result of atomisation of culture (see also differences between now when everybody can make their own playlist vs listening to what was on the radio, ditto TV and film) I do not know and would have to look into further. Equally other parts of the world seem to be stepping in as prices to play have crashed through the floor and they still remember how to tell stories.


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