# 50% expect Civil War soon (James Reinl; Garen J. Wintemute; Stephanie Pagones; Tori B. Powell) [Multiple Articles]



## Creamu (Jul 26, 2022)

'Half of Americans expect a second U.S. civil war within YEARS, more than 40% agree with 'great replacement theory' and nearly a fifth expect they will choose to bring a gun to a violent political row, alarming poll shows

   - 50.1 percent expect to see a second American Civil War within years
   - More than 40 percent favor a 'strong leader' over democracy and adhere to immigrant takeover belief
   - One fifth expect to be gun-toting at a January 6 Capitol riot-style melee in the coming years
   - California university researchers say results 'exceeded our worst expectations'
   - Study follows mass shootings and comes amid controversial Washington hearings into January 6 insurrection

[...]

Researchers at University of California, Davis uncovered worrying levels of ‘alienation’, ‘mistrust’ and a growing tendency to turn to violence in their recently-conducted survey of 8,620 adults across the country.

More than two-thirds of respondents said they saw a ‘serious threat to our democracy’ and 50.1 percent agreed with the statement that ‘in the next few years, there will be civil war in the U.S.’

More than 40 percent said having a ‘strong leader’ was more important than democracy and that ‘native-born white people are being replaced by immigrants’ — a racist belief known as the ‘great replacement theory’.

Researchers also uncovered a growing inclination to settle political rows with violence.

Nearly a fifth of respondents said it was likely they would be ‘armed with a gun’ at a political flash point in the coming years, while 4 percent said it was likely they would ‘shoot someone with a gun’.

[...]

A third of former president Donald Trump's fans living in Republican states said they would be ‘better off’ if their state split and became an independent country. Another 29 percent of Trump fans said such a secession would leave them ‘worse off’.

[...]'

-James Reinl






https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...avis-democracy-threat-civil-war-politics.html

'[...]

First is a striking rise in violence, and particularly in firearm violence. The 28% increase
in homicide from 2019 to 20201 was the largest single-year percentage increase ever recorded.2
Firearms accounted for 57.7% of violent deaths in 2019 but 62.1% in 2020, when 78.9% of
homicides (19,995 of 25,356) and 52.8% of suicides (24,292 of 45,979) involved firearms.

Second is an equally unprecedented increase in firearm purchasing that began with the
onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in January 2020 and, except for a brief respite late in 2021,
has continued through June 2022. 2,4 From January 2020 through June 2022, background checks
on firearm purchasers have averaged 46.6% above expected levels (Supplement Figure 1); an
estimated 14.5 million excess background checks have been conducted, of 45.7 million checks
altogether.

[...]'

-Garen J. Wintemute






https://www.riotimesonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/US-civil-war.pdf

'[...]

News of Floyd’s death sent shockwaves throughout the city and prompted demonstrations that, although peaceful by some, grew destructive in some cases. Fires erupted throughout parts of the city, including at a local Auto Zone, a Japanese restaurant, a Wells Fargo bank and an Office Depot. Looters ransacked an area Target store, among other shops.

At one point, rioters cheered as people set a Minneapolis police precinct headquarters on fire after the department was forced to abandon it.

[...]

Oregon’s largest city saw more than 100 consecutive nights of racial injustice protests marred by vandalism and chaos and, at times, violence.

The demonstrations that started in late May divided residents and flared even further in July when President Trump deployed federal law enforcement agents to stop attacks on a federal courthouse and other U.S. property.

Thousands of demonstrators turned out nightly, with some hurling fireworks, rocks, ball bearings and bottles at the agents. They responded with huge plumes of tear gas, rubber bullets and flash-bang grenades that created chaotic, war zone-like scenes.

[...]

With tensions already heightened following the Floyd shooting, hundreds, if not thousands of people descended on downtown Chicago in August following a police shooting on the city’s South Side.

Vandals smashed the windows of a dozen businesses and made off with merchandise, cash machines and virtually anything else they could carry, police said.

[...]

Videos of the vandalism showed huge crowds of people smashing their way into businesses and streaming out of the broken windows and doors with clothes and other merchandise. They loaded up vehicles, some moving slowly and deliberately, apparently not worried about being caught by police or being recorded by scores of cellphone cameras.

Vehicles drove away slowly, some leaving behind boxes of rocks that they had apparently brought to shatter the windows. Cash register drawers and clothes hangers were strewn about the streets, along with ATMs that had been ripped from walls or pulled from inside businesses.

[...]

Crowds destroyed dozens of buildings and set more than 30 fires in downtown Kenosha. In one instance, a Kenosha car dealership reportedly sustained $1.5 million in damage during one night of riots.

[...]

Demonstrators took to the streets of Philadelphia following the October officer-involved shooting of Walter Wallace Jr., an armed Black man reportedly with a mental health history.

More than a thousand people took to the streets following the shooting, ransacking big-name stores, such as Walmart and Foot Locker, as well as smaller businesses. Hundreds were arrested, and dozens of police and law enforcement vehicles were damaged during the riots, officials said at the time.

Meanwhile, more than 50 police officers were injured, including a sergeant who was "intentionally run over" by a pick-up truck driver, Philadelphia Police Commissioner Danielle Outlaw said.'

-Stephanie Pagones






https://www.foxnews.com/us/protests-riots-nationwide-america-2020

'Former Minneapolis Police Officer Derek Chauvin Sentenced to More Than 20 Years in Prison for Depriving George Floyd and a Minor Victim of their Constitutional Rights

[...]'

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/form...uvin-sentenced-more-20-years-prison-depriving

'Third is growing uncertainty about the stability and value of democracy in the US. Most
Americans across the political spectrum now perceive a serious threat to democracy in the
US.5,6 At the same time, nearly 70% of adults—with very similar results for Democrats and
Republicans—agree that “American democracy only serves the interests of the wealthy and powerful.”
Approximately 20% of Republicans, conservatives, and voters for Donald Trump
(and 9% of Democrats, liberals, and voters for Joe Biden) disagree with the statement that
“democracy is [the] best form of government.”

Fourth is the expansion into the mainstream of American public opinion of extreme,
false beliefs about American society. Approximately 1 adult in 5 endorses the core elements of
the Q-Anon belief complex, that “government, media, and financial worlds in the US are
controlled by a group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles” (16%) and that “there is a storm
coming soon that will sweep away the elites in power and restore the rightful leaders” (22%).9
Nearly 1 adult in 3 (32%) endorses the assertion that “a group of people in this country [is]
trying to replace native-born Americans with immigrants.”

Fifth is growing support for the use of violence to accomplish political or social
objectives. More than a third (36%) of American adults (56% of Republicans and 22% of
Democrats) agree that “the traditional American way of life is disappearing so fast that we may
have to use force to save it.”7 Nearly one-fifth of adults (18%) agree that “because things have
gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save
our country.”9'

https://www.riotimesonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/US-civil-war.pdf

'[...]

Part of what’s different in Allentown is its racial makeup. In the 1970s U.S. Census count, the city’s population was 97% White, but by 2020 the share of hon-Hispanic White residents had plunged to 31%.

The city is among many throughout the nation with changing demographics. Census data shows that the number of White Americans decreased over the last decade across 35 states and within 3 out of 4 counties. And according to projections from the U.S. Census, America is forecast to no longer have a White majority population by 2044.

[...]

In three separate studies with different methodologies, the belief that the rights of minorities will overtake that of whites, an unfounded conspiracy theory known as the “Great Replacement,” was one primary driver for “insurrectionists,” researchers found.

[...]

Allentown resident Emely Minaya, who came from the Dominican Republic as a child, says she thinks Allentown is an example of the future of America when it comes to diversifying communities.

“Even those states where there’s probably no Hispanics at all, no Black people, they will be seeing a lot of that in next few years,” she said.

Asked what she would say to those who may be troubled by that potential demographic shift, she says to “suck it up.”

[...]'






-Tori B. Powell

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/insurrectionist-movement-race-demographic/


----------



## Creamu (Jul 27, 2022)

'[...]

The idea that there are large swathes of black men sitting in prison for murders they did not commit is a fundamental assumption in the narrative constructed by the anti-incarceration “Criminal Justice Reform” movement, and radical DAs often work to prove it is true. In St. Louis, Gardner founded a “Conviction Integrity Unit (CIU)” [Defending The Conviction Integrity Unit In St. Louis, by Vaidya Gullapalli, TheAppeal.org, August 19, 2019], Krasner created an office with the same name, while Boudin established the “Innocence Commission,” which is run by an unabashed “racial justice” crusader named Lara Bazelon [Email her],  who heads the University of San Francisco’s “Racial Justice Clinic.”

Krasner’s CIU office, the oldest of the three, has been freeing convicted murderers and rapists at historic rates that are unheard of elsewhere. According to data published by the Philadelphia District Attorney’s Office, Krasner’s CIU has so far exonerated 29 imprisoned men, 27 of whom are black [Exonerations - PhilaDAO Data Dashboard].

Philadelphia’s exoneration rate is wildly anomalous. The city of Philadelphia, which holds fewer than 4,000 inmates in its correctional facilities, has exonerated more prisoners since Krasner took office in 2018 than several states with incarcerated populations many times larger, such as Arkansas (10), Alabama (28), Mississippi (21), and so on, during the entire 30-year period of 1989 to 2019.The trend even holds for states known for being deeply liberal, such as Colorado (10 exonerations), Connecticut (25), and Maryland (3) [Exonerations By State Report: Wrongful Conviction Statistics in the US,  nealdavislaw.com, July 22, 2019].

Judges overseeing the suspiciously high number of criminal vindications in areas where progressive DAs are in power have expressed skepticism, and sometimes even dismay, at the methodologies used to secure these exonerations. Last year, Judge Rose Marie DeFino-Natasi called the Philadelphia CIU’s evidence purporting to prove the innocence of 31-year-old black man Jahmir Harris, who was freed from his murder sentence, “unsubstantiated” [Judge allows prosecutors to drop charges in 2012 slaying, AP News, March 13, 2021] while simultaneously accusing Krasner’s aggressive activist lawyers of engaging in actions intended to “harass and influence the court.”

Ultimately, the Judge, who was convinced of Harris’ guilt but threw out his original conviction over a procedural matter, ruled, in an exasperated opinion, that the court could not force Krasner’s office to mount a new trial against the man.

[...]'

-Enzo Porter

https://vdare.com/articles/are-soro...g-guilty-murderers-the-data-suggests-they-are

'NEW YORK - The NYPD is seeing a major exodus of officers, as 523 members left the force in June alone.

123 of those officers resigned, the most resignations the NYPD has seen in a single month in at least a decade.

So far this year, 2,119 police officers have left the NYPD, with 1,472 retiring and 647 resigning. 2022's numbers represent a 38% increase over the previous record of 1,535 for the first six months of 2020, according to the New York Post. 

"The exodus has become a stampede. We’re not only losing experienced veterans. We’re also losing cops in the prime of their careers who are taking their talents elsewhere," Police Benevolent Association President Patrick Lynch told the New York Post.

Detectives Endowment Association President Det. Paul DiGiacomo says that with retirements and resignations high at the NYPD, the city will become less safe.

The reasons for the exodus vary. Detectives Endowment Association President Det. Paul DiGiacomo told Good Day New York that he places the blame on the city's vaccine mandate, bail reform laws, and a lack of support from politicians. 

FOX 5 NY reached out to the NYPD for comment on the registrations, which said that the number of retirements is actually declining when compared to the two previous years.'

-FOX 5 NY Staff

https://www.fox5ny.com/news/nypd-officers-retirement-2022


----------



## lokomelo (Aug 24, 2022)

Keyboard warriors are not civil war soldiers. Most angry people on internet, even the ones who have guns, will only fight against cholesterol on the next decades.

Also, no separatism will advance in the USA either, despite the Texit website being so much entertaining.


----------



## Chop1n (Sep 12, 2022)

While it's a terrible thing that people feel this way and doesn't bode well for the general state of things in the US, civil war isn't something that would happen even if 99% of Americans claimed they were certain it would. Civil wars happen when the state is already in such a state of decay that some other faction is allowed to rise to power for long enough to realistically challenge it. Do you see a faction that has the resources to match the state's trillion-dollar military hegemony? I sure don't see it. Another superpower would have to arise and destabilize first.

To put it another way: nuclear holocaust is _far _more likely. Launching a nuke requires none of those things to happen. It's something that's already come terrifyingly close to happening multiple times in the last century.


----------



## Jayro (Dec 28, 2022)

We all know Republicans would start the civil war again, just like they started on Jan 6th with the insurrection.


----------



## vb_encryption_vb (Dec 28, 2022)

Jayro said:


> We all know Republicans would start the civil war again, just like they started on Jan 6th with the insurrection.


A half-assed insurrection...


----------



## krakenx (Dec 28, 2022)

25 years ago, the left and right agreed on the facts and the problems, but disagreed on solutions and who caused the problems.  With respectful discourse, it was possible to find common ground and compromise on a solution.  Society could move forward.  

Now, there isn't even a shared reality.  People are willing to fight and die to avenge things that didn't even happen.  The propaganda engines are so strong that I don't think it's even possible to get through to the people that are brainwashed.  They have been trained to think that everone else are the ones that are brainwashed, and they have been prepped to have a rebuttal to everything that is actually true.    

The graph shows that only 4% are willing to actually shoot someone though, and people generally want to maintain the status quo.  But our institutions are failing so completely it might not be much longer before people are willing to throw it all away.  Especially if the bread and/or circuses stop.


----------

