# The media is creating mass hysteria over the Coronavirus.



## Deleted User (Mar 10, 2020)

In some countries, the situation has become really bad as the virus is technologically advanced so it's not possible to tell who has it straight away till they start to feel the symptoms.

However, in U.S. and U.K. it's like they're prepping up for the Zombie Apocalypse.




When I see that there's a need to get actually serious about it, then I will. But panic buying because the media is always talking about Coronavirus won't really help.


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## FAST6191 (Mar 10, 2020)

I went to a costco in the UK yesterday and it was crazy.

That said despite being as busy as the time I was foolish enough to go on a Saturday a couple of weeks before Christmas I actually sailed round doing my normal Costco run (cheap but good meat, scan of the tool aisles, giant muffins, and bulk cooking ingredients sometimes for cheap but you have to watch that one). If I had wanted bottled water or bog roll it might have been more fun. Bonus is those panicked types pretty much only buying bog roll and water, maybe some big bags of rice, meant the checkouts were quick as you like as they are all really bulky. About 20 minutes after I entered they had run out of bog roll as well, not sure what time that was and I had the dubious pleasure of a round of Ikea first (after 1hr+ of driving) but probably lunchtime and they only open up to the public around 10.

Also made for some fantastic people watching, even more so than usual (and this one is in the heart of Essex so it is seldom bad).


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## notimp (Mar 10, 2020)

The people are creating mass hysteria on the corona virus.

Mass hysteria, without masses of people doesnt work. Stop the blame game on media.

How do you inform, without creating mass hysteria?

3-4% death rate (20 times worse than flu), about three times as contageous as flu, and might not be ended in april by warm weather.

America (US) has no sick leave, no health insurance for vast population groups, people working two or more jobs.

Have fun.

Washing your hands (with soap) for 20 seconds (minimum) is about as effective as using disinfectants. Do it multiple times a day. Don't hog masks (people who are sick, as well as hospital personal need them, also only certain kinds of masks work, which are those that are in short supply. Production will be ramping up I'm sure.). Dont buy food and supplies like the world is ending tomorrow.

The people who die, most often are people that are above 80, or have a weak immune system, or a preexisting condition that makes them less resistant to getting over pneumonia.

Also don't become obsessed, preferably.


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## Pipistrele (Mar 10, 2020)

Boesy said:


> When I see that there's a need to get actually serious about it, then I will. But panic buying because the media is always talking about Coronavirus won't really help.


There *is* a need to get serious about it - it almost reached the pandemic level, virus itself has relatively high lethality rate, many governments of the world show complete failure at stopping or at least holding off the spread, and as @notimp mentioned above, places like America are in a very unfortunate position when it comes to dealing with coronavirus. Sure, some people do overreact a bit, but media doesn't "create mass hysteria", at least intentionally - they deliver straight facts about the situation, however morbid they may be.


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## IncredulousP (Mar 10, 2020)

Pipistrele said:


> There *is* a need to get serious about it - it almost reached the pandemic level, virus itself has relatively high lethality rate, many governments of the world show complete failure at stopping or at least holding off the spread, and as @notimp mentioned above, places like America are in a very unfortunate position when it comes to dealing with coronavirus. Sure, some people do overreact a bit, but media doesn't "create mass hysteria", at least intentionally - they deliver straight facts about the situation, however morbid they may be.


*3.4% mortality rate*
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/


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## notimp (Mar 10, 2020)

Some additional info:

- High risk groups (not being able to get over pneumonia) are very young people (but only with preexisting conditions), and people above 65.
- In Germany (remember Italy is not that far away) the height of the current wave is estimated to be in June or August (might be different for the US).
- Open Air events with more than 500 people should be avoided/prevented and mostly get canceled until then. (To prevent fast spreads.)

Parents are encouraged not to drop off their kids after school at their grandparents, but instead help them (grandparents) with shopping, so they don't have to visit supermarkets. (Basically don't abandon your elders, but also dont have them in direct contact with your grand children either, because schools have many people in tight spaces.).

Those actions might not make sense for the US yet, your government will inform you, when and if its time.

Government action for the most part currently is - supplying tests for people that show systems and went to the doctor (also you are encouraged to visit your doctors, when you show systems), and getting more intensive care beds ready in hospitals. Otherwise that scenario:



> [if we have too few intensive care beds]"Who do we want to save then? A profoundly sick 80 year old, or a 35 year old with acute pneumonia that could die within hours and would be over the hill in four days with artificial respiration? There is a high probability that there will be such cases, in places where you dont have access to more intensive care, even if you could be flown in time to a different hospital.


So thats what currently needs to be prevented by precaution/organization/planning. Old people getting kicked off life support, later on. (Because capacity utilization for those facilities in Germany is at about 80%. (Too few intensive care beds, when the height of the outbreak hits, edit: in some regions.))

src: https://www.bz-berlin.de/berlin/charite-chefvirologe-warnt-vor-dramatischer-corona-welle-im-herbst (german)


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## DaRk_ViVi (Mar 10, 2020)

Welcome to Italy a couple of weeks ago, now we are all quarantined as the infection numbers are rising.
Be safe, follow the safety rules and don't understimate the virus!

And us in Italy have high numbers of infected because the check is free for us, so if you have flu sympthoms + fever they check if you have the virus, in many states you have to pay for it and many people are not checked.


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## FAST6191 (Mar 10, 2020)

You say that but this is the same media that will do everything it can to avoid saying suicide as they noted a spike in copycats, swore up and down "this is not a recession" despite being one by any metric you care to use (presumably this was to stop a run on banks, and when a run on a bank was actually happening in the UK they were fairly restrained there as well), and while they have not quite cracked "don't do all the name, cool narration and 3d animate the next time some fucknut mistakes a school or their work for a shooting gallery" they are at least making steps there. When I bother to watch things it seems pretty uninformative and clueless, as well as relentless, which all combine to be nice fuel for the fire.

Also are we seeing 3-4% in medically advanced countries? Seemed more like 1% last time I watched the news (it was covering Italy, nice round numbers at suitable sample sizes placing it around 1%), and that mostly being the elderly and infirm that usually get wiped out by such things anyway.

As far as serious does that extend to the general public at this point? All for governments, large gatherings and medics being prepped for it, isolation and whatever else in accordance with sound medicine, and wash your hands and don't touch your face* is pretty good advice at the best of times, but the "prep for civil unrest" style stuff seems a bit over the top. Especially as most things I see people doing are ineffective if it is a fun one; your little paper mask, much less worn badly, is not really the gear you want (if it does not come with replaceable filters and provisions for eye covering it is not going to do much) and hand gel most are using tends not to be the best anti viral out there (anti bacterial sure, but not anti viral, or if you prefer there is a reason most of the stuff you get in hospitals and the like does a number on your hands if you use it more than a few times a day for a week). To say nothing of water and bog roll is fine, the water being somewhat redundant though, but far from what you will be missing out on should it get fun if my trips to the supermarket and Costco were anything go by (nobody did a mid-long term room temp stored food supply of any kind of nutritional value -- the rice the two or three people were getting out of the hundreds might keep you alive long enough to get scurvy I guess).
Not that I expect many would even know right now, or indeed be capable if they had to, I hate to imagine how ineffective most people would be at setting up a proper civilian decontamination/isolate the outside from you setup, to say nothing of most houses in the UK these days not really having an entrance you could do a plausible effort at it for, with the US not too much better in most houses I see there (maybe having more space to stick some wood and staple some sheeting onto it). That and as you usually have to beat in proper procedure to medics and scientists/engineers when they finally get released into the world from their schools then I don't hold out much hope there either that people could properly maintain it -- if it is something fun this is not really a matter of run a vacuum over the carpet because you did not remove your dirty shoes when dragging something heavy in.
This on top of all this is several weeks, if not months, behind the curve if you are just jumping now.

*always a favourite game to do the the "monkey see, monkey do" to new mechanics, tradesmen and the like when they have oily/dirty hands. They soon learn though.


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## ghjfdtg (Mar 10, 2020)

I agree on the panic part. We will all get it eventually anyway. It's months too late to stop it. Wash your hands and be careful. It's all you can do.


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## Viri (Mar 10, 2020)

DaRk_ViVi said:


> Welcome to Italy a couple of weeks ago, now we are all quarantined as the infection numbers are rising.
> Be safe, follow the safety rules and don't understimate the virus!
> 
> And us in Italy have high numbers of infected because the check is free for us, so if you have flu sympthoms + fever they check if you have the virus, in many states you have to pay for it and many people are not checked.


I'm guessing this video didn't age well?



Spoiler


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## notimp (Mar 10, 2020)

FAST6191 said:


> You say that but this is the same media that will do everything it can to avoid saying suicide as they noted a spike in copycats, swore up and down "this is not a recession" despite being one by any metric you care to use (presumably this was to stop a run on banks, and when a run on a bank was actually happening in the UK they were fairly restrained there as well), and while they have not quite cracked "don't do all the name, cool narration and 3d animate the next time some fucknut mistakes a school or their work for a shooting gallery" they are at least making steps there. When I bother to watch things it seems pretty uninformative and clueless, as well as relentless, which all combine to be nice fuel for the fire.
> 
> Also are we seeing 3-4% in medically advanced countries?


Overall. (But then, some governments test too little, and death numbers in germany are disputed as well (there is no logical explanation for why there is such a large reported difference (in that percentage) between Italy and Germany (read between the lines here)).)

Yes, media and politics are encouraged not to report certain cases (copycat, sometimes even malpractice). The weighing/assessment you are encouraged to make there is if reporting there will do more harm as a result of it. And that also includes panics. (Real mass panics, not just people stocking up on more food for a few months (then forgetting that corona is a thing, and then the virus coming back stronger in the fall, because of that forgetting part)).

If you are looking at it structurally, raising mass awareness hopefully slows down spread somewhat. And adverse affects are slim/none. Also, some corporate health practices, will only be triggered if word gets around. (Dont force sick people to come to work.) (Effects on elections might be real as well, and not rational either, but comparatively - that should not count as an argument. (If you are not in the GOP.))

Also entire different 'ruleset' than with suicides f.e. because "its contageous!!111!1!" so people will talk about it ad nausium anyhow. (See china, where now the government is under attack for their information policy). So the 'controlling the message' aspect gets almost dropped entirely (for journalism, even in more authocratic regimes). (You can't, its useless. With suicides its different. That you can really stem by saying ok, lets try to curb them societally, by not talking about it too often.)

So - different rulesets, for the most part.


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## Axido (Mar 10, 2020)

It's funny to see that the part of Berlin I live in doesn't care as much as those Costco customers, while people in the surrounding rural areas (that are not even effected as much as Berlin is right now) are hoarding powdered soup and toilet paper... I mean... GODDAMN TOILET PAPER! What's wrong with people nowadays?

I'm glad I'm not really at risk of getting harmed severely by the virus and I hope those actually being at risk can avoid it as much as possible.

That being said, I was going to start working at a new place this Friday and they canceled my contract altogether, because they sent everyone they could into home office. Therefore there would be nobody to break me in for at least a few weeks.
Said place is an accountancy office... I mean, it's not like it's a place visited by large groups of people. But yeah, definitely feels a bit over-the-top.


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## ghjfdtg (Mar 10, 2020)

I think i should elaborate more on my post above. The media is not entirely responsible for this but they accelerate it because they almost only tell you the bad facts like infected and death rates. They rarely tell you how the mortality rate is still going down as more people recover and how all these numbers must mean nothing to you if you are not already at risk like elderly, babies or with weak immune system.


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## MrMcTiller (Mar 10, 2020)

All the stores around us are out of water bottles and toilet paper. My old school got shut down because of someone who might have the virus. That school is like 10 miles from me. I'm worried.


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## notimp (Mar 10, 2020)

ghjfdtg said:


> they accelerate it because they almost only tell you the bad facts like infected and death rates


True. Otherwise people would not pay attention.  It also helps, that this is what sells 'more papers, or more clicks'. That internal logic never is curbed by anything. (Free media.  Remember?  )

Other than you saying - ok, we maybe target a more informed audience (usually as a paper or a radio broadcast) that would cut their subscriptions, when we do that to them all day.

But there are certain 'kinds' of media, that are - all that. Because - information economy. Thats what people are interested in.

So even if it might be 'dumb' to some extent, its 'market dumb' (the same kind of dumb where people in economics usually say, how intelligent markets are..  ).


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## Pipistrele (Mar 10, 2020)

IncredulousP said:


> *3.4% mortality rate*
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/


Which is almost 1.5x times the initial estimate, there's no foreseeable treatment against it, and it has far wider spread on top of that - the thing's already considered more severe than 2009's outbreak of swine flu. So, still pretty serious.


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## regnad (Mar 10, 2020)

ghjfdtg said:


> I think i should elaborate more on my post above. The media is not entirely responsible for this but they accelerate it because they almost only tell you the bad facts like infected and death rates. They rarely tell you how the mortality rate is still going down as more people recover and how all these numbers must mean nothing to you if you are not already at risk like elderly, babies or with weak immune system.



Just because you're outside of the risk group doesn't mean you shouldn't be careful. You don't want to be responsible for accidentally killing grandma. I mean, I guess that may "mean nothing to you" if all you care about is yourself.

Also the mortality rate is going down because more people are being tested. That doesn't have anything to do with the _actual_ mortality rate. It has to do with more accurate assessment.

Here in Japan it's no joke. A very large percent of the population is elderly. And even if you don't care about that, there are a finite number of hospital beds. There's a maximum number of people that can be taken care of at the same time. As soon as you go over that number, the mortality rate will spike because patients aren't getting enough care. And when this happens, it then effects not just coronavirus victims, but all hospital patients.


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## Pipistrele (Mar 10, 2020)

ghjfdtg said:


> all these numbers must mean nothing to you if you are not already at risk like elderly, babies or with weak immune system.


It's less about your own survival and more about responsibility for other people's survival. For example, if you don't have any complications, you're highly unlikely to fall into that mortality rate - I, however, have chronic hypertension (one of the major risk zones for COVID-19), so if people like you end up infecting (and highly likely killing) people like me by approximation, then I'll make sure to kick your ass in the afterlife


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## IncredulousP (Mar 10, 2020)

Pipistrele said:


> Which is almost 1.5x times the initial estimate, there's no foreseeable treatment against it, and it has far wider spread on top of that - the thing's already considered more severe than 2009's outbreak of swine flu. So, still pretty serious.


Swine Flu original estimated mortality rate: *0.02%
*
Swine Flu death toll found to have been *10-20x more than original estimates*, with mortality rate somewhere around *0.2-0.4%*, if going off of this discovery and assuming the original number of infected remained the same.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...th-rate-low-study-shows-idUSBRE90O0T720130125
https://www.npr.org/sections/health...-10-times-more-deadly-than-previously-thought
https://www.livescience.com/41539-2009-swine-flu-death-toll-higher.html

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ghjfdtg said:


> I think i should elaborate more on my post above. The media is not entirely responsible for this but they accelerate it because they almost only tell you the bad facts like infected and death rates. They rarely tell you how the mortality rate is still going down as more people recover and how all these numbers must mean nothing to you if you are not already at risk like elderly, babies or with weak immune system.


Regarding Swine Flu:
"The results showed that 62 to 85 percent of those who died in the 2009 pandemic were younger than age 65. Usually, seasonal influenza (not H1N1) has the worst effect on seniors; only 19 percent of seasonal-influenza deaths occur in people age 65 and younger.

"It is this 'signature age shift' that sets pandemic influenza apart from seasonal influenza," the researchers said. The high death rates in younger people mean a larger burden on the society as more potential years of human life were lost during the 2009 pandemic than during an average seasonal flu outbreak, the researchers said."

https://www.livescience.com/41539-2009-swine-flu-death-toll-higher.html


Regarding Swine Flu:
"But the current study, commissioned by the WHO, helps explain why the agency struggled so much to calibrate its response to that pandemic and find the right tone for its public messaging. WHO leaders were first criticized for taking too long to declare a pandemic when spread of the disease clearly met its definition. Then critics charged the agency with hyping the situation under pressure from vaccine makers who wanted to recoup their investment."

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...-10-times-more-deadly-than-previously-thought



Regarding Coronavirus:
"For weeks, it seemed that the answer was 2. Perhaps a little more, perhaps a little less.

The calculation was made by comparing the total number of people with confirmed cases of COVID-19 to the number of people who died of it. As both of those numbers grew, the ratio was bound to shift.

The 2% figure seemed stable on Feb. 24, when a massive study of nearly 45,000 Chinese patients whose infections had been confirmed with laboratory tests reported a case fatality rate of 2.3%.


Later that week, on Feb. 28, a study of nearly 1,100 Chinese patients suggested a lower death rate, of 1.4%.

Four days later, on March 3, the World Health Organization said the global mortality rate was 3.4%.

How could it have changed so much in such a short period of time?

“It’s hard to say what the case-fatality rates are until the dust settles,” said Dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist and infectious disease expert at UC San Francisco.

“It’s not a statistic to be looking at kind of on an ongoing basis, even though I do it just as much as everybody else does,” he admitted.

That includes members of Congress. On Wednesday, they asked Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, what was going on. He urged them not to get so fixated on the fatality rate, emphasizing that scientists still have a lot to learn about it."

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-07/why-the-coronavirus-fatality-rate-keeps-changing



ghjfdtg said:


> They rarely tell you how the mortality rate is still going down as more people recover and how all these numbers must mean nothing to you if you are not already at risk like elderly, babies or with weak immune system.


Sounds like the media explained it to me. The article goes into more depth.


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## slaphappygamer (Mar 10, 2020)

I think people are taking it upon themselves to build trumps wall. It’s going to be paper mache. It’ll contain so much bleach and corn starch that’ll it’ll eradicate the corona. That’s the only way I can make sense of this paper product shortage. I mean, if you had to dry your hands after washing, wouldn’t normal people use a towel then set the towel a flame after use?


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## ghjfdtg (Mar 10, 2020)

I'm not saying i don't care about anyone else. Just you have no reason to panic if you are not at risk. No one wants to get infected and no one is infecting people on purpose (at least i hope so). Sorry if that came across as selfish. Life must go on with or without the virus


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## slaphappygamer (Mar 11, 2020)

If Donald has his walls built, we should all be safe and fancy with the walls. He should sign an executive order to complete them as fast as he can think about it. Oh wait.....


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## Cylent1 (Mar 11, 2020)

Here it is in a nutshell....


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## Xzi (Mar 11, 2020)

From what I've seen, the media coverage has actually been pretty measured on average.  The issue hasn't so much been the quality of their coverage, but rather the quantity of it.  We only need one hour a day at most for coronavirus updates, but on cable they've got 24 hours to fill, and they seem to think 22 of those hours should be dedicated solely to COVID-19.

The cause of the panic isn't limited to the media, either.  People are well aware that our country's leadership is asleep at the wheel, and that they've already fumbled the response to this outbreak in several ways.  Going on national TV and contradicting health experts is certainly not helpful by any stretch of the imagination.


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## IncredulousP (Mar 11, 2020)

Xzi said:


> People are well aware that our country's leadership is asleep at the wheel, and that they've already fumbled the response to this outbreak in several ways.  Going on national TV and contradicting health experts is certainly not helpful by any stretch of the imagination.


Hey, hopes and hunches are just as powerful if not more reliable than what a bunch of "scientists" say.


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## notimp (Mar 11, 2020)

Cylent1 said:


> Here it is in a nutshell....
> 
> View attachment 199174


Slight problem.

Its hyped all over the world. Asia. Europe. Middle East. Australia. Russia.

We dont have an election.

Doctors are dumb as well.

If 4% of the world population could die, you have to somehow warn/prime people as well.

If Doctor wants to ignore, that 25% of all people over 80 might die because of it, its fine with me - but hopefully not with "media". You cant just leave them (people over 80) out of the picture.

And if you havent heard that 25% death probability figure in people over 80 (in some scenarios, depends on spread) yet, thats because media doesnt want you to panic. (Oh what, they do act that respnsible, huh, who would have thought.)

Also - every election has a pandemic, is kind of a very odd crackpot position to hold. Change your doctor. Probably.
-

I think its time for a rant again. (#toughlove)

PEOPLE ARE dumb, mindless DRONES

They go with whatever political accusation, that their twitter feed tells them to go with. They copy opinions. (Thats part of what makes societies work. You all are social beings. That can be very concerned at times. (*dramatic chipmunk*))

Effing republicans of the tea party brand of crazy, can play the f*ck media stereotype on any issue, where media 'profits' (sells more papers, gets more clicks), because of peoples irrationality (people hear people dead, and buy paper - media knows that), without any repercussions.

But thats not the medias fault. Thats stupid, stupid, stupid humans fault. No one is forcing you to click on those headlines, you still all do.

Media is not, and never was, and never will be - a purely rational representation of actual risks in society. You all would hate it, if it was. You wouldnt care the effing least if it was.

But for some kind of politicians, its so f*cking easy to tell you - you are those perfect little embodiments of rational, just, moral human beings - that those bad, bad media people following market rational (what sells), brainwash their puney little brains out.

While at the same time, the same politicians, treat you as insanely irrational and herd based dumb, whenever they want something from you. Hey people - maybe dont get rid of media, if then you still get manipulated by assanine logic - but without media to offset that. (It never was about one becoming pure and good, its about media looking politics over, and legal system media, and politics being able to create laws. Its layered that way. Politics isnt supposed to influence media (censor it, make it self censor).)

Also while we are at it, you got that "this was in doctors office" picture off of instagram, tiktok, or twitter, didnt you? Someone with a whiteboard made it. Must have been a doctor, obviously. I say that - because in my parts of the world, it is not an obvious thing for a physician to spread "every election year a manufactured epidemic" insanity (as if epidemics (pandemics) cared about US outcome only).

Which brings us to Costco. None of tha media (conventional) told you to stuck up on goods.

It was f*cking zombie TV shows, and neglected spouses that needed approval in their lives, that made you go there. Do you now seriously suggest, that media should play your daddy and helicopter mommy, to prevent you from that as well - by starting to self censor, because OBVIOUSLY humanity in the US cant handle that stuff?

There is an easy way out of this you know? Acknowledge, that media has a self serving interest to hype life and death stories a little out of proportion (what your nightly mass murder mysteries reality tv shows didn't teach you that?), take about 30% of the hype off - and live a happy life. While at the same time, demand based, making the media system better with your behavior.

That too much for you?

And then again. You dont get mass panics, because of media, you get it because of masses. They are mass behavior. Look at what happens at black friday. I dont see people blaiming the ads there. No there it was just a fun "adventure" to take part in one of those, and every one laughs it off, even if people are killed.

None of conventional media should have told you to stock up on food rations. Makes no sense. That was all people on their own.

And if for some reason some radio shock jockey told you to do so - boot him. He/shes an idiot. Dont blame that on media.


BUT.

The more likely rational, again, as with 90% of the threads in this forum, always - is that you are 'very concerned about' whatéver the teaparty is feeding you as a talking point, at any time. No matter how dumb it is.

So lets explain this again.

Populist politicians dont need conventional media. (If they havent established absolutist systems, where they control it, yet.) They have their own 'down at the voter level' organizing systems, twitter, their own fringe media outlets, and a very good understanding what insane theories spread, if they play the concern card, triggering irrational behavior. And furthermore. On any case, where the media acts 'self serving' (wants to sell more), they dont have to expect much pushback from more rational people - because yes, media to a point is overplaying the issue here.

BUT that doesnt mean - that if you bully media out of the occasion everything becomes magically better here. How you fix this is still - you not behaving like dumb f*cks, when entering Costco, or this forum.

But you never quite seem to get that point. Its always the other side thats responsible for humanities stupid behavior issues. And thats just factually wrong.

And what doctor above has written on whiteboard, doesnt matter much, if that individual is still more stupid, than I am. Dont roll with "trust in authority", if authority just means, has a white board, a white coat, and an instagram account. Dont be that idiot. (Think for yourselves at times.)

You've been baited again. (Now if this would have been a doctors association, different story - but it hasnt been, has it? You just picked a (small) conspiracy story off of twitter again.)

edit: "But why cant we make media censor themselves better? So that this kind of stuff doesnt happen anymore?" Because other, and more bad stuff happens if you start to put in top down censorship structures, and frankly, media also has to make money somehow. So overhyping something/their own importance is always kind of part of it, as it is in all market based economies.

Social media story telling is still dumber and more problematic though. Because it doesnt rely on being vetted (no one cares about the good name of "some twitter account", if their story OMG - it spreads, thats the whole point of 'going viral'). And it drives faster news cycles (OMG have you heard!) that prevent stories from being vetted. If you only rely on those stories all getting debunked after the fact - you are dead in the water, because "fact check" rebuttals spread about 10-20% the amount of the original OMG story on social - and the people who write those for living become depressed little husks of their former selfs within three years, because they deal with human rational failing all the time. So dont rely on this being a new default you can run with. Especially not as no one is paying for journalism (some rich dude might).

The underlying issue still is and always will be, that you gave away better data to "service that we send grandma her grandchildren pics over - and where I hooked up a few times in the past" than to media, thereby ruining their economics. Then grandma pic service copied some news article from the internets, and you all conflated it for "media". Then you never quite realized how surfacing algorithms work (OMG is top ten quite often, because it catches people that are genuinely intrigued, and those that want to read it to then complain about it, and those who just are victims to clicking on emotional charged words, and it spreads faster - because it reads like you might have missed something important) on social media, and now you complain about them - but still by degrading media (fake news, ..).

None of that makes any sense. If you want better twitter feeds, or youtube recommendations, pester those companies. Just because they dont react, doesnt mean, that you can now blame media for it.

And most importantly - if you dont pay money for media, your opinion doesnt count. If you say you are rational, but your clicking behavior isnt. No one in the advertising business will care. (Media might also be 'in the advertising business' if they become mainly ad financed. You have to prevent that on your own. Facebook or Google wont help you here.)

edit2: Oh and why are conservatives concerned? Because you will, irrationally, blame the current administration for everything epidemic related. Voter approval numbers will fall for the current administration, because of the epidemic. (And how it is handled.) So if you say, media just lying - everything handled A+ ok, that might prevent some scares that could cost votes.

No need for 'tha liberal media is taking me Trump away' shortcuts in thinking. Its all a little more complex and at the same time a little less exciting.


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## Taleweaver (Mar 11, 2020)

*sigh*
The media? Not quite. Fellow residents? All the more (at least here in Belgium).
Thus far I don't see people panicking or going haywire, but there's a chance it'll happen soon. The day before yesterday, I was asked (or rather: 'we' of ICT, but I was the only one in the office) whether it was possible if we could all work from home. There's certainly a possibility that that'll happen soon, as in the office building (9 floors, only one of us habitated by our company) there's a rumor that "two people with symptoms were spotted" on one of the other companies. It's a bit stupid if you ask me (symptoms? It's pretty rainy...you can quarantine Belgium if every person coughing is a suspect  ), but we're getting at a point where objectivity gets threatened by a "what if?".

Furthermore: we get regular mails that we should take sanitation regulations into account, locally famous persons interrupt commercials telling us to wash our hands, and so on.

But the only real threat I see is the economical one. My sector's heavily influenced by tourism (heck...half our profit comes from the airport), so it's a rough time because of that. Probably not as bad as the Zaventem bombings for Belgium, but as a multinational we're heavily impacted by the situation in other countries (ahem...Italy) as well. 



slaphappygamer said:


> I think people are taking it upon themselves to build trumps wall.


The way the US handles it, perhaps the Mexicans will be building (and paying for it!) after all! Better keep those loco's out of Mehico, eh?


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## notimp (Mar 11, 2020)

I now have all the relevant parts for a congruent story.

Want to hear them?

With COVID-19

People are infectious for days, even before they show the first symptoms.

Which means that spread prevention by telling them "go to the doctor" doesnt work (still go to the doctor anyhow, because you will then get an info sheet (preventing faster spread afterwards) and 'treatment'

It probably isnt stopped by warm weather either (although infection rates might slow down).

The virus is airborn, stays in the air for multiple minutes, and isnt hugely more infectious depending on if you touch your face less, or wash your hands less often

Which means that between 40-70% of mankind are expected to get infected (by some estimates - could be less) (It makes a difference though if 'this year' or 'over ten years'.)

Because all of that means, that infection will only stop, if you have enough people already having resistance built up (by already having been infected and their immune systems having dealt with the virus (because currently there is no vaccination)), that transmission tides down.

The good (and also bad) news is, that most people will show only slight symptoms (not get pneumonia), but still be highly infectious, while they have it.

All of which is also why (in combination with the disease being airborn (not just mukus) chirurgical masks dont work (Only some masks which are fully sealing, please dont hord them, people in the medical systems need them, they are in short supply and suppliers cant crank production up as quickly as needed).

All measures employed are mostly there to slow down the spread, which means more hospital beds (and respirators) available for patients that become really sick (only a small part of everyone who gets infected).

Washing hands or disinfecting them doesnt work so good on an airborn disease either, but it helps against other infections that might impact your immune system, and it is something you can do. So do it.

Deathrate is estimated at about 3.2 to 3.5% no one knows all the factors, we have to wait and see.

Death rates among old people that are infected are at around 25% if they are 85 years and older.

Obesity, diabetes and high blood pressure also are risk factors, so take your blood pressure medication. (Also yes, we know, many people have high blood preassure, death rate still only at 3.2- 3.5%, calm down.) If you have any preexisting condition that might not have you get over pneumonia as fast as the average person, thats a risk factor, being over 65, and then increasingly, over 80 is as well.

Children this time around arent especially affected by that type of virus (no higher risk profile), but they are good carriers.  Pregnant women arent either.

Closing venues down (schools, ..) only helps to slow down spread. (So more hospital beds are available, basically.)

And social fallout will start, when people start to see that the medical system has a hard time dealing with cases, because of equipment or personal shortages.

So all politics can really do is try to slow it down. To make the harsh outcomes (from systems being overtaxed) less likely.

We are in the beginning of it.

Y'all have fun. 

And dont panic.   Life will go on regardless.

It has to, overall death rate isnt too outrageous, you dont grow pimples while you are at it (just flu symptoms and pneumonia), so people socially can deal with it, if you inform them whats happening. 

Two prior forms of coronaviros (SARS and MERS) were easier to deal with, because with SARS you could stop certain contagion paths, and with MERS people only were infectious after they started to show systems, so you could isolate them easier.

Stop blaming tha media on this one. 

Some of that information comes from an epidemiology expert (Michael Osterholm) on Joe Rogan. You can watch the interview if you want ( h**ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw ), some of it from a vireologist of the Charité Berlin (Christian Drosten) (src: https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/podcast4684.html (german, sadly).

Now you know pretty much all of it there is to know (colloquially), the question still is though - does it make you feel better?
And what part of it didn't you want to know - so did (just conventional) media handle whatever they told you responsibly? Did they show restraint? (Imho - yes, they did.)

edit: Secondary infection deaths (so dying of a different disease, while having COVID-19, because of COVID-19) this time around are low as well. So honing down on some of them this time around also doesnt make much sense.


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## notimp (Mar 11, 2020)

Taleweaver said:


> But the only real threat I see is the economical one. My sector's heavily influenced by tourism (heck...half our profit comes from the airport), so it's a rough time because of that.


State should be on that as well (they are in europe). Grants are being rolled out, to help tourism and gastronomy to get over it. But issues also affect the global supply base, which is why you have a global economic downturn.

China is said to disassemble mobile crisis centers as we speak (because rate of new infections has come down), so a 'sense of normalcy' will come back eventually. (Even if the virus is expected to spread more harshly, once that is expected to happen.  And it always is.)


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## notimp (Mar 11, 2020)

Also, the US probably will not see school shutdowns (as a measure to prevent fast spreads), because not only do they have no sick leave, they dont have any equivalent social structures that could have anyone but schools dealing with their children, while their parents are at work. As a result you'll probably get a faster spread and a higher shortage of treatment slots overall.

Which means 'not telling people much of it' is a pretty good idea over there. Because there is not much you can tell them to actively try to do.

Which brings us back to media maybe not wanting to pick up on all the stories, oddly enough.

Because they cant even really encourage people to self quarantine over there.

If you want to have some fun, keep an eye out for if and when Canada closes schools.  Or provinces.
(Currently the outbreak there isnt vast enough to warrant it, see: https://www.cbc.ca/news/coronavirus-schools-canada-case-1.5488236 )
-


edit: WHO disagrees on COVID-19 being airborn (Why do you then close down open air mass events? Why do you then have multiple experts say it is? Why are you then only qualifying certain tight sealing masks as effective protection?) and says infection paths are mukus based.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

In which case washing your hands, often, becomes a much better idea.

This is me just covering for - idk, the Joe Rogan "expert" not knowing what they were talking about?

Wash your hands.

(Here you have the WHO saying it is airborn. https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...ference-11feb2020-final.pdf?sfvrsn=e2019136_2

Take a pick.. ?))

edit: More info on airborn or not?

Airborn for 30 min and up to 4.5 metres. 
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...vel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

*Hachooo* Bless you. 

edit2: And the study has been retracted from the chinese medical journal without a reason given. Great.  (see article.)

Probably airborn then? 

edit: BBC says NHS believes that "probably not airborn" and 15 min of close proximity (1-2m) to an infected person are needed for an infection. At the same time, studies have shown massive contamination within even a few minutes in cleanrooms. 
src: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51736185

Eh, yes? 

Hey, this is getting fun.. 

edit: While we are at it: Death rates are at 0.7% in Germany and at 5% in Italy. (Of people that where tested positively (that got it)) So more testing availability will be needed to find out where it falls in the end. Somewhere between in 4x and 17x of a bad years flu epidemic. 

edit: Austrian virologist criticizing the Austrian governments for school closures (you dont want to have your kids be cared for by your grandparents, when the epidemic is going, remember  ), also tells media that COVID-19 is airborn. Which also has a good side to it, because summer might slow down the spread, by virtue of less people being in smaller contained rooms. (Doesnt kill the virus though.. ) Or not. 

So let me just call it and say - the virologist on Joe Rogan was informed enough.  Assessment in the first 'this the complete story' posting should hold up.


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## notimp (Mar 11, 2020)

Mortality in Wuhan was 5% (of the people tested positively) but in the regions surrounding it (rural) 0.7% (after containment measures already were taken), mortality rate in South Korea is 0.6% and in germany its 0.7% as well. In italy it also was around 5% but there are reports that the health system was 'highly stressed' by the outbreak. (And it probably was spreading uncontrolled (without any containment measures) for quite a while).

In countries surrounding italy now measures are taken to stop (slow down) the early exponential doubling rate of new infections, which as a result should mean a slower progression, that then can be more controlled, that then can lead to a lower mortality rate.

Thats (indicative of) good news. 

(Info from Anne Will (referencing WHO taskforce numbers, and official german numbers).)
src: https://daserste.ndr.de/annewill/index.html (german)

In terms of severeness. In Germany about 80% of people that have the virus, can be self quarantined, because of only minor symptoms. (That should give you an indication of how prevalent symptoms are, before they become critical. (Not meaning that 20% have critical symptoms - but then are more closely tracked. In germany only about 1% of cases so far have become critical cases - while in italy the rate was much higher, we dont know why yet.))


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## Plasmaster09 (Mar 11, 2020)

as someone whose school has temporarily closed because of all this until at least the 20th, I... have realized that around 80% of the actual problem here is everyone freaking out, the US practically becoming a PVP server and people hoarding (and even sometimes SCALPING, the heartless f*cks) hygiene supplies that have become precious resources.
The actual virus is less of a problem than everyone going batshit insane over it. Not to say the virus isn't a problem, but the reactions are WORSE.


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## notimp (Mar 11, 2020)

Human behavior, cant do much about it. 

The good news is, that - if the contagion path is also active from airborn infection its really almost exclusively about slowing down rate of infection, and not so much "infection in general" (numbers).

And if its mostly mukus related, washing your hands with soap for 20 seconds should be about as affective as using disinfectants. (Do it multiple times a day.)

Also - the main issue (while people also might be hoarding) is demand spike and small storage facilities. So it should be more of an issue of aggregate behavior change. 

That people are skalping, is normal. But again - none of 'one specific good' should be so important, that you absolutely need it. Its more that people perceive them as very valuable currently.


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## Plasmaster09 (Mar 11, 2020)

notimp said:


> Human behavior, cant do much about it.
> 
> The good news is, that - if the contagion path is also active from airborn infection its really almost exclusively about slowing down rate of infection, and not so much "infection in general" (numbers).
> 
> ...


Still not really an excuse- it may be "normal", but it's still horrible, and in a time like this it borders on downright EVIL.


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## notimp (Mar 11, 2020)

Ah, but most humans are capable of behaving "evil" if surrounding conditions change. Not an excuse, just is.  (*joyfullresignation* in tone ) Still sorry, that you had to witness it.


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## Plasmaster09 (Mar 11, 2020)

notimp said:


> Ah, but most humans are capable of behaving "evil" if surrounding conditions change. Not an excuse, just is.  (*joyfullresignation* in tone ) Still sorry, that you had to witness it.


yeah
they should still stop though


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## mattytrog (Mar 11, 2020)

Mattytrogs official advice...

If anyone has Coronavirus, they are to self-isolate at Greta Thunbergs house.


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## Plasmaster09 (Mar 11, 2020)

mattytrog said:


> Mattytrogs official advice...
> 
> If anyone has Coronavirus, they are to self-isolate at Greta Thunbergs house.


I see someone doesn't like activism much


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## Flame (Mar 11, 2020)

people are dying left and right. but its hysteria...


has no treatment
has no vaccine
Spreads very efficiently
Has already caused medical capacity to be exceeded in places like China and Italy

normally i would say don't leave your house cause of the coronavirus. but in some of your cases you should. video games have made you robot. Life is just a game.


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## notimp (Mar 11, 2020)

In italy the official line is "has not lead to us having had to made those tough decisions yet" (in terms of when to turn people away from life sustaining measures.). But there are reports out there, where in the most affected regions, personal has worked day and night and the whole hospital has turned over to "corona center" ("everyone was working on this"), and then you look at mortality numbers, and... the rest is interpretation.

China helped out italy as well, sent over 1000 respiratory devices, so again - its likely that they where overwhelmed (in some regions).

But it seems - if you can handle the influx, the mortality might not be that high. If you cant it is (that 3-5% number).

And all indications for the US (in terms of what it can do to slow it down) arent "excellent".

The rest of the world can send people on a coordinated two week break, and have people go on sick leave (self isolate, once they have it) - while the US has very limited ways of trying to extend the early doubling period in that growth curve, comparatively. (Everyone is canceling huge stadion events and exhibitions f.e.).

Earliest time for a vaccine is probably two years from now (one if we get very lucky). And there is no known treatment currently. (The way the virus can enter the lungs is known, and maybe adressed by a medicament licensed in Japan, clinical tests are on the way.)

But all of what you currently hear as media and political action is "trying to curb the transmission curve", so that exponential dispersion is curbed. If in two years, there is a vaccine and a treatment we will probably not talk about it so much anymore. But the way different countries will come to that point is - different.

In terms of infection rate I've now heard 3 infections instead of 2.5 (as with flu) per infected person on average, but its still difficult do gage this stuff, while you are in the middle of a potentially exponential growth curve (many outside factors).

Also, no country can just set out economically for much longer than those two aformentioned two weeks, without the needs for massive subsidies. So there is a point where everything will go back to normal, with the virus still not 'fully conquered' (see china).

And apparently epidemiologists and virologists are discussing best points when you order a country to go 'on leave' (schools are closed...). To curb early period doubling in the transmission curve. For that point you also look at economic factors.

In Austria (neighbor country to italy) our students are on home schooling now, museum are closed, and schools get closed on monday afair. All that to curb doubling of case numbers early.

edit: Also we dont know how long Immunization lasts, once you had it. There is probably some residual immunization hanging around for quite a while though..  (Until there is some mutation..  )


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## Chary (Mar 11, 2020)

Why, why are you all buying water, people watching the news? I don't get it. It's not a hurricane. Why.


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## notimp (Mar 11, 2020)

I refer you to the 'people are dumb' rant of mine..


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## ghjfdtg (Mar 11, 2020)

In a few supermarkets here there is a shortage of toilet paper and water. Like seriously? If you are in quarantine wiping your ass is your first priority?


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## notimp (Mar 11, 2020)

Virus (COVID-19) is killed by going through peoples digestive systems, so no need for more toilet paper, scientifically speaking. (Not a joke, thats actually the case.  )


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## MikaDubbz (Mar 11, 2020)

I get the point that people are over-reacting.  But all the same, this is absolutely something to be informed of.  By it's very nature, any amount of hysteria is inevitable when spreading the word on this kind of situation.  I'm not so sure we should blame the media on that, so much as we should simply blame those that pay attention to nothing but the media.  There are far too many people like that out there, and unfortunately they're the kinds of people to be fixated and obsess.  In other words, it is what it is.  Just do your best to not be a part of the hysteria and try to calm your friends and family that are concerned, but also understand that they do have a right to be at least somewhat concerned all the same.


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## WD_GASTER2 (Mar 12, 2020)

people are over reacting but the situation is actually kind of serious. Can not go into specifics for privacy concerns but its been a doozy to be aware of what is going to reported in the news days before it gets reported. (in case anybody wonders, i provide first hand support to those in the frontlines)
In reality the ones that deserve so much more credit in all of this are the healthcare workers in the front lines of what is happening.

my biggest concern with this shit is that in the US we have all been conditioned to go to work and tough it out through cold and flu's. This is extremely ill advised with this thing. hope people practice common sense (yeah i know, im dreaming)

if there is a nurse or doctor in your life take this time as a reminder to show them some love.


that being said tho
as a great president once said

"The only thing to fear, is fear itself" here is to hoping this thing goes under control soon enough


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## Viri (Mar 12, 2020)

I actually bought 3 bags of toilet paper(4 rolls in each), not because I'm worried about the virus, and getting quarantined, but because I'm worried people are going to buy them all out, and there won't be any left for me to buy any. I didn't buy out the whole store like some people.

I guess I'll have to track down some hand sanitizer next, because I like to use it a lot, and enjoy the smell, and like to keep my hands cl- wait, am I explaining why I like hand sanitizer ? looool

I fear the crazy people buying out the stores more than the actual virus it self, lol.

And Jesus, fucking China. I swear if it turns out they made this virus them self, I hope the whole world sanctions them. But companies won't fucking leave the country, and go to other cheap labor countries.


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## notimp (Mar 12, 2020)

Here are a few new news items for US citizens:

- Republicans just blocked a motion for payed sick leave (for 14 days) during health emergencies. (As predicted..  ) But talks are ongoing.

- Schools are closing in the US (fun?) over 1500 to date (affecting over 1mio students)

- If you want to get tested, call a hotline, dont walz into your doctors office

- Tests are available for free - but doctors will decide based on your risk profile of being infected already (meaning, have you traveled recently to highly effected countries, or been in contact with someone who was effected), if you get tested or not.

Same procedure as everywhere in europe. Labors to process the tests have limited capacity. So you restrict it that way.

Remember all of that stuff is there to interrupt a faster spread (early doubling of cases in the growth curve).

Thats it. 

src: h**ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ackNue2MmV0


edit: Oh, and Tom Hanks and his wife have tested positive for COVID-19.
So don't go over to Toms house.


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## subcon959 (Mar 12, 2020)

I really recommend people to watch the JRE podcast with Michael Osterholm. Especially if you are not sure what information to believe or not, as he is pretty much one of the world's leading experts on infectious diseases and epidemiology.


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## DBlaze (Mar 12, 2020)

i just want to know why tf people here in my town are mass buying flour, did everyone become a baker now?


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## notimp (Mar 12, 2020)

subcon959 said:


> I really recommend people to watch the JRE podcast with Michael Osterholm. Especially if you are not sure what information to believe or not, as he is pretty much one of the world's leading experts on infectious diseases and epidemiology.



I'll link it again h**ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw

Although not so sure about 'one of the worlds leading experts'.  Not trying to put him down, I'm just unsure about that statement.


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## subcon959 (Mar 12, 2020)

notimp said:


> I'll link it again h**ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw
> 
> Although not so sure about 'one of the worlds leading experts'.  Not trying to put him down, I'm just unsure about that statement.


That's fair enough, I could've probably said 'one of the world's most experienced experts' instead.


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## seany1990 (Mar 12, 2020)

It really angers me that people fell for the "It'll be gone when the weather warms" rhetoric.


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## Deleted member 397813 (Mar 12, 2020)

Our church was making us bow instead of shaking hands lol


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## notimp (Mar 12, 2020)

seany1990 said:


> It really angers me that people fell for the "It'll be gone when the weather warms" rhetoric.


Dont, its for their benefit.  (Nerves..  )

There is nothing (not much except washing hands) that they could do differently based on that perception. And it will help the economy to start back up, once 'normalcy' is rolled back in.  (Which will be before the virus is gone/a vaccine is widely available.)


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## tomberyx (Mar 12, 2020)

Toilet paper helps to prevent  corona virus but water doesnt help in this case.
My question now, how can it be?


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## FAST6191 (Mar 12, 2020)

DBlaze said:


> i just want to know why tf people here in my town are mass buying flour, did everyone become a baker now?


That is a new one, and an odd one.

I could see soup packets in Germany someone mentioned earlier, and some bulk buying rice when I was at Costco the other day but flour is an odd one. Certainly more nutritious than water and bog roll (while you can make vodka out of it the process is likely a bit beyond most people) but most things anybody would make with flour also use dairy (eggs, milk, butter...), supplies of which presumably would be troubled if doing the more long term thing. I guess you can mix flour and water but that is going to be dire times, maybe they all have stocks of olive oil and are going to do flatbreads.

That said if people are that stupid and not buying canned goods or dehydrated powders (said soup mixes aside) and other such things that taste good and provide some nutrition beyond simple calories then I would not complain too hard.


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## Veho (Mar 12, 2020)

Chary said:


> Why, why are you all buying water, people watching the news? I don't get it. It's not a hurricane. Why.





DBlaze said:


> i just want to know why tf people here in my town are mass buying flour, did everyone become a baker now?


So people are buying flour, toilet paper and water in bulk... Looks like everyone is really into papier-mâché all of a sudden   


This is an example of a positive feedback loop in action, in this case everyone is buying some articles simply because everyone else is. Rationally, no real shortages are expected, even with the pandemic. But people aren't thinking rationally. And it's really easy to trigger.  It's enough for a tiny group of people to stock up on, say, toilet paper, to make some store shelves appear empty, so other people believe there's a shortage so they start stocking up, and it all balloons from there into a mass panic and actual shortages. 

This is why stock exchanges have trading curbs, to prevent a death wobble or complete crash when a similar situation happens to a company's shares. One person sells too many shares, everyone else starts panic selling because they think the first guy knows something they don't, and boom, panic, hysteria, crash. 




notimp said:


> edit: Oh, and Tom Hanks and his wife have tested positive for COVID-19.
> So don't go over to Toms house.


They're currently quarantined in Australia, so arguably now is the best time to go over to his house


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## FAST6191 (Mar 12, 2020)

Veho said:


> So people are buying flour, toilet paper and water in bulk... Looks like everyone is really into papier-mâché all of a sudden


That or Halloween this year is going to be epic.


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## Veho (Mar 12, 2020)

FAST6191 said:


> That or Halloween this year is going to be epic.


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## scroeffie1984 (Mar 12, 2020)

and nobody talks about why now ! dean koontz 1981 / sylvia browne end of days
and nobody talks about why china ? nobody talks about those lines in the sky so called plane smoke 
24/7  365 days a year . we all share this planet with each other its time for the mass to wake up


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## ChibiMofo (Mar 12, 2020)

Businesses and schools are closing, the markets are down as much as 30%, the idiot in the White House is clearly panicking, but oh the "media" is creating mass hysteria. I guess you'd prefer the media in China, where they don't report anything but good news about the virus? Blaming the "media", which is so massive a category in 2020 that includes voices from all sides of every issue, is the most lazy form of generic criticism possible. Get a grip. And stop trying to prop up Traitor Trump by repeating what FauxNews tells you to believe.


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## FAST6191 (Mar 12, 2020)

Ooh a chemtrails type. How novel.

"24/7 365 days a year"
Psst the year is longer than that.



ChibiMofo said:


> Businesses and schools are closing, the markets are down as much as 30%, the idiot in the White House is clearly panicking, but oh the "media" is creating mass hysteria. I guess you'd prefer the media in China, where they don't report anything but good news about the virus? Blaming the "media", which is so massive a category in 2020 that includes voices from all sides of every issue, is the most lazy form of generic criticism possible.



There is a rather large difference between blathering endlessly despite being clueless and leaping upon random speculation (something which all of the, sadly partisan, news sources seem to going in for) without properly vetting it and declaring those that survive will live to be 200 or whatever and you should be lucky to catch it.


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## notimp (Mar 13, 2020)

Some of it is also just people being people.  Most of the media was good with it in my vicinity, but you should have seen some of the media responses, when Merkel announced, that statistically the virus might only stop spreading once 60-70% of germans had caught it, went through it and therefore had immunity. People not understanding how to interpret statistics is also part of the issue.

The message you want out there is, calm down, but at the same time dont take stupid risks, and know what you are dealing with.

But that also entails to tell some people just "hey it will be ok" because they want to hear that at the time. But not all of them. (Another person might freak, especially because you told them 'just that'.)

Which is a reason for why it is important for media to be both independant, and representative of demographics.
(Helps trust forming.)

And yes, thats just a different way to say "maybe some people need to hear it differently". (This concept:
 )


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## kumikochan (Mar 13, 2020)

The media is not creating mass hysteria. I know a couple of people who have it and believe me it ain't pretty. The people commenting and constantly bringing up other diseases and such all live in an area where they have not seen people coughing up blood in the middle of the street and not experienced first hand what it is. They're still in damage control mode induced by the goverment and are just repeating the same bullshit things a goverment says before it broke out to keep the bullshit economy going and don't even realize how they're just saying the exact same thing.


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## WD_GASTER2 (Mar 13, 2020)

its not a pleasant thing for sure.
however people dont realize that there is a different between panicking and staying vigilant.
the media is only saying people should be cautious.
people: acting like its the apocalypse.


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## Hanafuda (Mar 13, 2020)

I guess for those of us old enough to remember 2009 and the swine flu, it's pretty obvious that the news sources now, in 2020, in the USA are overhyping the fear and focusing all they can on any governmental missteps. Compared to 2009 anyway, when the swine flu was rampant worldwide, and the USA death toll from it eventually reached 12,000, and yet CNN and other outlets downplayed the threat daily. Everything was under control then, remain calm, the government's doing a great job. Now all we hear from 'the news' is that it's an absolute clusterfuck operation, even though we seem to be handling it better and more decisively than any other developed country. 

There's plenty of reason to take this virus seriously. But I haven't taken CNN, CBS, ABC, NBC, or FOX seriously as sources of FACT or OBJECTIVITY for a long time.


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## kumikochan (Mar 13, 2020)

Hanafuda said:


> I guess for those of us old enough to remember 2009 and the swine flu, it's pretty obvious that the news sources now, in 2020, in the USA are overhyping the fear and focusing all they can on any governmental missteps. Compared to 2009 anyway, when the swine flu was rampant worldwide, and the USA death toll from it eventually reached 12,000, and yet CNN and other outlets downplayed the threat daily. Everything was under control then, remain calm, the government's doing a great job. Now all we hear from 'the news' is that it's an absolute clusterfuck operation, even though we seem to be handling it better and more decisively than any other developed country.
> 
> There's plenty of reason to take this virus seriously. But I haven't taken CNN, CBS, ABC, NBC, or FOX seriously as sources of FACT or OBJECTIVITY for a long time.


You're at almost 2000 known infections and still have to test a couple thousands who applied according to news so please explain how you're at it better than other developed countries like you claim ? That's some elitist claim


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## Deleted User (Mar 13, 2020)

The news (well, "news") of Coronavirus in Portugal have been more of an annoyance than anything relevant.

Hell, the media (specifically, Correio da Manhã) even made this list that made me laugh.







Cyprus is located in the Middle East (Asia), but the population is mostly European, and the language is also European (Cypriot Greek), plus the EU has their claws around the island. Except, the portion that's controlled by the Turkish. So.. even though Cyprus is nearly all European, it's not in Europe which makes that list wrong. It's also incorrect to say "América" as a continent, should be "As Américas" or "Américas", but meh.. I don't care that much whoever wrote screwed it up. It's just kinda fun to point it out.


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## KingVamp (Mar 13, 2020)

People might be overreacting, but I think, in this case, underacting is as bad,if not worse.


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## VinsCool (Mar 13, 2020)

The mass hysteria honestly made me wish I was allowed to tell people to go fuck themselves today.
It's NOT my fucking fault if we are sold out of everything, you all take the stocks for granted, so much for spending all day watching TV rather than having a job >.>


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## Lostbhoy (Mar 13, 2020)

I heard if you say it 3 times into a mirror..... It gets you!


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## Hanafuda (Mar 13, 2020)

kumikochan said:


> You're at almost 2000 known infections and still have to test a couple thousands who applied according to news so please explain how you're at it better than other developed countries like you claim ? That's some elitist claim




The 2019 Global Health Security Index (over a year after those people were fired) found the United States to be the most prepared nation on the planet, across 6 categories of consideration. And by a decent margin over the #2 country.

View attachment 199330

ghsindex.org

View attachment 199331


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## kumikochan (Mar 13, 2020)

Update. Belgian researchers just told they've found a cure and that first tests have shown it works. Further tests will have to be done but we probably have a cure

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------



Hanafuda said:


> The 2019 Global Health Security Index (over a year after those people were fired) found the United States to be the most prepared nation on the planet, across 6 categories of consideration. And by a decent margin over the #2 country.
> 
> View attachment 199330
> 
> ...


Seems those numbers aren't as correct anymore eh now that other nations who aren't even on that list have less infections and are better at controlling it


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## chrisrlink (Mar 13, 2020)

geeze went to food lion no soap paper towels bleach very few cleaning supplys (mostly off brand) no ib pophen advil tylenol etc even cough syrup is out


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## ghjfdtg (Mar 13, 2020)

People are going crazy here now. They buy entire pallets of noodles, rice and other stuff.


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## Hanafuda (Mar 13, 2020)

kumikochan said:


> Update. Belgian researchers just told they've found a cure and that first tests have shown it works. Further tests will have to be done but we probably have a cure
> 
> *Seems those numbers aren't as correct anymore eh now that other nations who aren't even on that list have less infections and are better at controlling it*




You do understand that frequently travelled/visited 1st world nations are naturally going to have more exposure, right?? The US is "exposed" to international flow people and goods on an extraordinary scale compared to 'nations who aren't even on that list.' You have to actually be hit with the pandemic first, for your level of preparedness to matter.

I liked your post though, because of the news re: possible cure. That's awesome!


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## SG854 (Mar 14, 2020)

Trump's wall will keep the corona virus out


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## notimp (Mar 14, 2020)

For diabetes and high blood preassure patients.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ure-diabetes-worsen-coronavirus-symptoms.html

Read the article through to the end and dont take irrational decisions. Further studies are needed and under way.

Currently its just a published hypothesis (a call for people to research this), and not proven.

Also - this is what you are trying to prevent:


> 'If a patient stops their medication and worsens to the point of requiring admission to hospital at the same time as we are dealing with an increase in COVID-19 cases, that would pose the patient a considerable risk and put further strain on the healthcare services.'



Also, effects of stopping to take those on the progress of COVID-19 cases are not yet known.


> People who are prescribed these medications should not stop taking them.


Is the current advice, and if that changes, I'm positively sure, that you will hear it in the news. 

edit: replaced link with a better source


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## subcon959 (Mar 14, 2020)

Yeah, I was reasonably calm about the whole thing until I read about the possible ACE inhibitor issue. A few people in my family have been on Lisinopril for a long time, including me, but concerned for the elderly ones more than ever now.


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## notimp (Mar 14, 2020)

Le Monde diplomatique compares the Coronavirus financial crash to "War or the worlds" (radio play). *lol*

https://blog.mondediplo.net/coronakrach (french)

edit: Reason for posting not related to the thread title


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## notimp (Mar 14, 2020)

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/13/jared-kushner-combat-coronavirus-facebook-127941

Jared has great idea. Lets ask social media for solution.

(This is very likely NOT the entirety of US institutions efforts on information gathering.  There are other channels. There is international information exchange. This is just - cute.  ) (via fefe)


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## WD_GASTER2 (Mar 14, 2020)

people should not panic about this, but it is something to be taken serious. Again cant speak much due to privacy concerns but those numbers are unfortunately gonna go up exponentially in the next couple of days. Then again I can only speak by being nearby one of the epicenters in the US where this is occuring.


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## notimp (Mar 14, 2020)

Airborn non airborn controversy breaks down to the following.

Virus itself is too heavy to stay airborn, but due to warm mukus attached to it (coughing, sneezing) stays around in the air for a while. Concentration of airborn particles very much is lower than particles in mucus, so transmission through particles that stay in the air is much less likely.

When wearing masks though most people tend to touch them quite often which might in return actually put more virus material on their hands. Also with masks they usually touch the areas around their eyes more often, which has pores, that are big enough for the virus to enter.

When dealing with f.e. confirmed sick family member, a mask - used correctly - would lower infection risk (even ones that arent N95 respirators), if handled correctly, otherwise please dont consider using them, because of the shortage (medical personal needs them first).

If you are in danger of having the virus (usually traveled in the past 14 days to a country considered one of the epicenters currently (list changes)), you are usually encouraged to self isolate, if you can (work, ..), and call a hotline. Flue symptoms should show within that 14 day period.

So mishandling masks increases risk. Also they are needed for medical personal and and production currently can not saturate demand.

Ars Technica has a comprehensive writeup that covers most areas of questions, if you are one of the people obsessing about technicalities. 
https://arstechnica.com/science/202...ensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/

(And is also the src for part of this posting.)


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## WD_GASTER2 (Mar 14, 2020)

notimp said:


> Airborn non airborn controversy breaks down to the following.
> 
> If you are in danger of having the virus (usually traveled in the past 14 days to a country considered one of the epicenters currently (list changes)), you are usually encouraged to self isolate, if you can (work, ..), and call a hotline. Flue symptoms should show within that 14 tay period.
> (And is also the src for part of this posting.)



let me tell you what is truly shit. as of right now... testing is nearly non-existent for front line caregivers (here in the states)... and these folks take care of more than one patient at a time. we are ill equipped for this shit. I saw a caregiver be mortified today not because of the risk to herself but to the risk she can pose to others without proper testing

This should be the first damn thing to fix, otherwise this whole situation can backfire spectacularly


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## notimp (Mar 14, 2020)

WD_GASTER2 said:


> people should not panic about this, but it is something to be taken serious. Again cant speak much due to privacy concerns but those numbers are unfortunately gonna go up exponentially in the next couple of days. Then again I can only speak by being nearby one of the epicenters in the US where this is occuring.


US testing capacity is still ramping up.


> While South Korea is testing 10,000 people a day, overall U.S. state and federal testing has yet to log even 15,000, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
> 
> Speaker Nancy Pelosi highlighted the urgency on Friday, while discussing an emergency spending package she said the House would pass later in the day, saying, “The three most important parts of this bill are testing, testing, testing.”
> 
> On Friday, the federal government said that it would allow New York State’s public health department to authorize local labs to perform coronavirus tests.





> By next week, New York could be conducting 6,000 tests a day, the governor said. On Friday, the state opened a “drive through” testing facility in New Rochelle, a city north of New York City that has been at the center of the state’s epidemic.


src: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/world/coronavirus-news-live-updates.html

Again, you probably wont get tested, if you havent been in one of the epicenters around the world recently, or have been in contact with a person tested positively before. Call hotlines, if you have - but not otherwise. 

(This is mostly for tracking numbers throughout the country, once capacity is there. edit: And obviously for medical personal.)


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## WD_GASTER2 (Mar 14, 2020)

notimp said:


> US testing capacity is still ramping up.
> 
> 
> Again, you probably wont get tested, if you havent been in one of the epicenters around the world recently, or have been in contact with a person tested positively before. Call hotlines, if you have - but not otherwise.
> ...



maybe you dont understand what i just said. People with direct contact with patients are not eleigible for tests as of right now. Literally you have to be coughing your ass out in order to get tested at the moment. 
also not to freak anybody out, you can be an asymptomatic carrier. let that sit for a second. 
also that stupid bill cant be passed soon enough. The cost of that fucking test is nearly 4000 dollars.


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## notimp (Mar 14, 2020)

Put up my post independently.  In germany people in direct contact with other patients are elegible for testing (might change over time as the number goes up.  )). But they currently arent having the best hotline experience.  (Concerned people are flooding them.) And follow up testing might not be distributed as necessary.

You'd need at least two of them (at least three of them earlier in Berlin, where they were still trying to understand the strand (two negative test, before they let you out of the hospital, if you tested positively before)).

Also that cost seems outrageous (I can now see, why several municipalities decided to develop their own testkits).

For medical personal they are essential (might make sense to limit it to mostly them first, if you need the capacity), because again, the virus is contageous before you are showing symptoms (but can be caught by tests, before you get contageous), so hospital work during the crisis relies on personal being tested over the day, and then getting a result every night.


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## notimp (Mar 14, 2020)

Here you see infection curves plotted:

US Numbers currently are probably valueless, because of the number of tests that were available having a higher influence on the jump than anything else.

Numbers are absolute, so you can not, I repeat - can not, compare one state to another in relative terms (population size not calculated out).

Dotted line is a daily increase of cases by 33%.

Hong Kong is currently championed as an example for "its possible to handle this using 'free world' tools".
Early and longterm quarantine measures, minimization of social contacts, travel bans (entry)

South Korea has nationwide comprehensive testing and therefore the best database, and also (only) voluntary citizen support.

Singapore has a surveillance infrastructure and has put up high levels of fees for neglecting measures.







src is the Financial Times, via a german secondary source, cant find the primary source: https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000115722463/erste-erfolge-im-kampf-gegen-coronavirus-in-asien (german)


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## FAST6191 (Mar 14, 2020)

So I saddled up the pony and made the trek into the big town (35K people, actually big enough to have a Sainsburys). Saw an amusing sight. One guy walking around in a spanking new... not sure if it was technically a machinist face shield (adjustment was what I expect from such things) or gardener face shield and vinyl gloves.
Now in case you have never seen a face shield then they have a gigantic hole in the mouth area (as in fit your fist and then some) and around the neck. They are great when chips are flying and medics do use something similar when things are spurting but useless for any kind of particulates.

I was seriously tempted to go near him, cough and mutter "Italy/Hong Kong was a mistake" but knowing my luck there is a stupid law against it (or possibly could count as incitement of a riot) and opted not to.


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## UltraDolphinRevolution (Mar 14, 2020)

Let me drop two thruth bombs.
Climate change is child´s play. The real problem is running out of oil.
Stacking up on food is smart, not because of Corona but because Trump´s fantastic economy is just a mega bubble. Nothing about 2008 has been solved. We will see hyperinflation, so buy your cans while you can.


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## subcon959 (Mar 14, 2020)

Can someone explain to me what exactly this science is that UK politicians keep going on about when you ask them why they aren't closing schools? Are they confused between science and economics?


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## notimp (Mar 14, 2020)

UltraDolphinRevolution said:


> Let me drop two thruth bombs.
> Climate change is child´s play. The real problem is running out of oil.
> Stacking up on food is smart, not because of Corona but because Trump´s fantastic economy is just a mega bubble. Nothing about 2008 has been solved. We will see hyperinflation, so buy your cans while you can.


Oil is good for 40-50+ years for sure. Part of it is due to the US fracking boom. Currently Saudi arabia just flooded the market with that stuff to get liquidity, after failed talks with OPEC and russia to limit extraction for price stability. The tough part also isn't 'oil is out' but transitioning, and currently no one can be bothered to even transition more quickly. None of the energy companies want to invest in renewables, because margins are still significantly lower (and once they do - it also signals to everyone 'oil is not so profitable anymore' and their stock price tanks..  so they will do it as late as possible, but still - currently there is no movement there), and they see no need.

The entire climate debate - although very much merritted on its own, also was an attempt to move on to transitioning faster - and although everyone was very concerned - no one quite 'bit' in regard to providing financing for it, other then the usual players (insurance companies, some state fonds, some religious groups (ultra long term investors), and some ideologists). To move it along, people are now trying to mobilize public investments. And we dont know, how investors will react after the "corona crash". Everyone pretty much told them (PR) for more than a year, that climate investing is the sensible option (lose less), and very few investors cared.

This is all not indicative of oil running out - yet. It is eventually, so transitioning is necessary, but not so soon, that you should have to care about it now. (This is an estimate based on behavior patterns, the large oilfields dont publish their estimates of remaining crude, so no one is quite sure, when it will happen - which helps price stability), but the way everyone is acting currently - no one is scared about this at the present moment.

Climate change is a real problem, especially for economic stability (free flow of goods), for ensurance companies (that can not deal with that added risk easily or at all), and countries. Because if ensurance companies can not take risk - one bad crop harvest can mean a less well off country going into famin, which then produces political unrest, which produces migration and wars. This increases cost (military and other), for everyone whose economy is largely dependent on trade. The US' economy is not. So industrialized countries (in Europe, China), very much have an interest in keeping all those costs low, by having everyone pitch in. But if all the signals from the US always are -- nope, never, forget it - they cant quite do it with too much state investment/money printing, because they lose relative competitiveness towards other countries that just stay out of it.

So everyone is trying to get private investors in, to kickstart a trend. And of course everyone has increased R&D spending.

New industry that will come out of that, revenue wise will be smaller than the current energy industry - which is part of the problem. (Europe might profit though, because we are good at high tech manufacturing, and china will profit, because they have cornered the resources market for solar.)

Its still going to happen. At some point.

Trumps economy should (edit: should say would have been (before the corona crash..  )) be "good" for pretty much exactly two years, when consumption based spending (millenials) in the US starts to drop off, and trade deals with mexico and india, are there to 'catch that'. The issue in the US is rather, that 'no one wants to invest' in your country to produce much of anything new. So 'same as it ever was' is actually the tag line of both dems and reps. Nothing too exciting. More energy sector research (gas), maybe some advancements in software or AI, thats pretty much it. The new markets (india and mexico) that will be open to you have much lower labor costs, so while they are good as consumption based demand (consumers), thats mostly good for established companies, and not so much for upstarts. (Working conditions in the US would have to be lowered currently, while you wait for india and mexico to catch up in per capita GDP). Also you will sell them military protection, but all in all will retract in millitary involvement.

That Trump pumped money into the stock market after he got elected shouldnt have changed much in the real world economy, but made a few dudes richer. (From todays viewpoint.)

Some of it will vaporize in the current bust.

US will not see a hyper inflation (everyone has too much investment capital to spend), because "cheap credit" will start to dry up, when boomers start to go into retirement (and stop trying to maximize investment). The US Fed had to create cheap credit just now, by lowering the interest rate, so there is liquidity in the market for your small and medium size companies, to survive, when people start to consume less, because of the corona scare (less activity in public), and to 'catch' the stock market from collapsing. But so had everyone else in the world.

Nothing about 2008 has been solved structurally. But more safeguards have been put into place to prevent banks from outright defaulting. If they hold, we will see.

The Stock market crises currently is what you call a 'multifactor' crisis (demand retracts, supply (world wide shipping) retracts, healthcare costs explode, ...), so not something where people would project any irrational fears that could result in high market volatility. So there is a definite bottom to losses. Where it is, we'll see, when the Corona outbreak hits the US for real.

US will likely not run into a liquidity problem soon, so everything should remain somewhat operational. Economy will tank (recession probably, maybe), people will lose jobs, but those should not be big structural problems.

So basically the opposite of what you said, in basically every point. But still no fun for normal people to hang around in.. 

edit2: Also, fun fact - whenever the US has a financial problem, it just export larger parts of it to its 'satellite states' (Europe, japan, ...), so it becomes more stable again. If the US would default, so would pretty much the world economy.  (In the future maybe less so, but still currently.)

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------



subcon959 said:


> Can someone explain to me what exactly this science is that UK politicians keep going on about when you ask them why they aren't closing schools? Are they confused between science and economics?


Should be economics mainly, yes.

There is a good reason not to close schools, so parents dont drop off their kinds at their grandparents - which are at high risk, but that doesn't seem to have been the operational logic for pretty much anybody. 

You close schools, selectively - in regions that have a very fast spread and high numbers, but try not to in regions where spread rates or numbers are not that high. You also can only do that 'for so long' so its a time limited measure you employ when - "many people in your region got sick", so spread can slow, while they get better, so you interrupt "fast doubling" of infection rates.

There are a few of those measures, and when you employ them is a cost benefit calculation, yes.

But also you cant do it 'all the time' so you usually do it in regions where you most want to stop the infection rate from (early) doubling. Meaning, timing is important. And someone should calculate, when and if the proper time for that is.

Everyone of those measure is like 'slowing down a reaction' and every one of them costs money. 

If you hear in europe, that entire countries are closing their schools, also remember, that some countries are comparatively small.

In germany nation wide school closures arent in play yet either, they will decide on that on friday.

edit: Corrected a logic error in the Fed lowered interest rates sentence.


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## notimp (Mar 15, 2020)

US is (allegedly) trying to take over a german laboratory trying to develop a vaccine.

Germany is trying to prevent it.

https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtsch...chen-impfstoffhersteller-kaufen-16679769.html
(german)

Fun.

edit: They are allegedly trying to buy out the company, also allegedly, to make a potential vaccine US exclusive. (Thats the spirit.)
Sources on this are from within the german government that tries to keep the company with financial counter offers.

Free market, ey?

America the beautiful.

Company is called CureVac (headquatered in Thüringen, Germany) if you need a search term.

Nice hat, btw.





Also - nice lipgloss.


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## notimp (Mar 15, 2020)

Now Germany closed its borders to France and Austria (which it has  (US hasnt got one with China..  )), so whoever I was in an argument with about you 'not doing that, because you are then "going dark"' - I was wrong, and apparently you do. 

(Public isnt demanding that in germany, so its not for PRs sake.)


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## romanaOne (Mar 15, 2020)

It seems like governments around the world like to close barn doors after the horse has escaped.  Look at flightradar24: huge numbers of domestic flights are right now (March 15th) still ferrying huge numbers of people between places like NY, FL, WA, CA.  There is also still plenty of air travel between most of the cities in western Europe.  NA and EU each have plenty of of sick people who are no longer permitted to cross the pond. Mission accomplished.

If a handful of men kill thousands quickly by flying planes into buildings, the planes stop. If COVID-19 wants to fly the friendly skies to slowly kill twice as many thousands as 9-11 --- so far, with no end in sight to the body count as of Mar 15th--- airlines and governments say "meh, can't stop trade."

The US does not have a unified public health system: it is organized at the county level by local-yokal morons who can't even spell "village fete," let alone organize one. See the NY Times below on the US "resists" public health:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/us/united-states-coronavirus-response.html

Even if the president were not a corrupt, gibbering idiot with multiple speech defects, Washington's response would probably still be a fucking shambles or nothing at all.


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## UltraDolphinRevolution (Mar 16, 2020)

notimp said:


> Oil is good for 40-50+ years for sure.


It is not going to happen in our life time, but it WILL run out. And then humanity is f*cked if we can´t come up with a solution. It is a fact and should worry us much more than the nebulous climate change.
And about the financial system: We have termites in our wall and instead of fixing the wall we just hang bigger and bigger pictures on the wall to cover it. Until the wall collapses.


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## morvoran (Mar 16, 2020)

romanaOne said:


> Even if the president were not a corrupt, gibbering idiot with multiple speech defects, Washington's response would probably still be a fucking shambles or nothing at all.


 You might be confused by all the primary nonsense going on, but Biden is not the president ( and never will be).  Trump is the president still and has done a better job than any other president has or would do with any pandemic.

On another note, good thing we don't have a single payer health system, otherwise we might be like Italy and let death panels decide our elderly shouldn't be helped even though they are the ones affected most by the Corona virus.  The lame stream media would never reveal this fact to the masses.


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## Thesolcity (Mar 16, 2020)

i am not allowed to leave my house


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## supershadow64ds (Mar 16, 2020)

I've pretty much abandoned all hope.


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## WD_GASTER2 (Mar 16, 2020)

supershadow64ds said:


> I've pretty much abandoned all hope.


pfft relax. ive seen brave nurses putting on the isolation outfit without batting an eyelash. just remain calm and do common sense stuff to avoid making the work of nurses and doctors harder in the long run.
I have already been in a unit filled with patients that have been diagnosed with it. its serious, but common sense goes a long way.


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## kumikochan (Mar 16, 2020)

Lmao, Everywhere in the world people are stocking up on toiletpaper due to the virus but in the US people are stocking up on guns and ammo. Who would have thought otherwise
https://twitter.com/AmeliaAdams9/status/1239245995952631808?s=20


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## FAST6191 (Mar 16, 2020)

Apparently chicken as well. I was speaking to someone there and it seems it is rather hard to come by, and pricey when you do. However they said they looked over 2m and there was a whole load of beef just sitting there.


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## linuxares (Mar 16, 2020)

"Monkey see, monkey do"


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## subcon959 (Mar 16, 2020)

Yeah, I went to Tesco earlier and there was no chicken or eggs... there's a joke in there somewhere.


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## Dartz150 (Mar 16, 2020)

In my city the only shortages and price rises are happening to vegetables, soap and canned tuna, quite logical if you try to prepare for a possible quarantine or just in case you are doing a self-quarantine. Personally I'm thinking into taking the second option, since at my work they already allowed us to stay working as home-offices, and my mom is part of the vulnerable sector and I wouldn't want to get Covid then pass it to her.


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## notimp (Mar 16, 2020)

subcon959 said:


> Yeah, I went to Tesco earlier and there was no chicken or eggs... there's a joke in there somewhere.


Why did the chicken cross the road? To self quarantine. Her eggs.

Here is something interesting, Austria currently has almost all thinkable measures going to get the daily additional infection rate down from +35%. Health minister was just out there saying that end of the week the government will be evaluating if those are 'enough'. Issue, I pretty much cant think of any additional measures. Shops are closed, people are only permitted to go out for work, and to buy food, schools are partly closed, self-quarantining is suggested..

In the capital city energy use (overall) is down by a fifth.

So... Ill be curious to see what else they could announce coming the end of the week. 

edit: People from italy might know..


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## subcon959 (Mar 16, 2020)

I feel sorry for new parents as the mob has now bought up all the baby wipes too. I guess it was only a matter of time before people realised that toilet paper wasn't the only option.


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## Deleted User (Mar 17, 2020)

https://heavy.com/news/2020/03/jennifer-haller/

The first trials on human volunteers for a experimental vaccine have started on March 16.

Quote:
Jennifer Haller is the Seattle woman who volunteered to be the first person to test an experimental vaccine that was developed to potentially help guard against the coronavirus.

Haller received the first of two injections on March 16. The medical trial is taking place at the Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute in Seattle. Researchers recruited 45 healthy individuals to participate in phase one of the trial, which has been funded by the National Institutes of Health.

The biotechnology company Moderna created the vaccine called mRNA-1273. As researchers explained in a news release, the team first needs to determine the “safety of various doses and whether these doses produce an immune response. Phase I trials are not designed to determine whether the vaccine is effective in preventing coronavirus infection. That work comes at a later phase of the vaccine research.”

Haller told the Associated Press her two teenage children think it’s “cool” that she is part of this first trial. “We all feel so helpless. This is an amazing opportunity for me to do something.”


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## FAST6191 (Mar 17, 2020)

Yay rushed responses to things.


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## validator111 (Mar 18, 2020)

Looks like paranoia would bring more harm for the society than the virus.


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## notimp (Mar 18, 2020)

validator111 said:


> Looks like paranoia would bring more harm for the society than the virus.


*weighs moments of medium distress against potential of death**comes to conclusion*

No.


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## notimp (Mar 18, 2020)

FAST6191 said:


> Yay rushed responses to things.


According to statements from the Curavec Pharma joint mentioned before, they may start clinical trials in the beginning summer months, with a possible vaccine in fall.

(Second datapoint on rushed vaccine development.  )


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## Brizas99 (Mar 18, 2020)

It's better to stay away from the media during this period of time. The "information" they're presenting is a way to create panic, so be aware of the articles you're reading


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## notimp (Mar 18, 2020)

Brizas99 said:


> It's better to stay away from the media during this period of time. The "information" they're presenting is a way to create panic, so be aware of the articles you're reading


Monkey no see, monkey no hear, monkey no talk.







Hey, they've mixed up the order of those statues!


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## ghjfdtg (Mar 18, 2020)

Going all the way "i can't hear you! lalalala" doesn't help anyone. At least listen to what your govement says to protect yourself and others. And to prevent expensive fines or prison if you break the rules.


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## notimp (Mar 18, 2020)

Airborn and contagious that way for up to three hours.
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200318_23/
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/health/coronavirus-surfaces-aerosols.html

Heisa. 

edit: In certain conditions. Read source.


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## slaphappygamer (Mar 18, 2020)

But if Coronas infect water, then when we all get runs, you’ll want that toilet paper since you can’t shower, because it feels like acid rain. Then when lightning strikes, and it’ll be soon, you get electric. That is when the sky falls. Oh wait, this is an EoF?


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## notimp (Mar 18, 2020)

End of Forum?  (edit: Edge of forum.   got it.)

Corona cant infect water.  For high concentrations it needs 'humans in proximity' (because it replicates in people). Thats why in Germany people now learn the 3 feet (hold your distance) rule in social interaction. 

Also you cant get the runs from it.

(Just making sure people dont pick that up as information.  )

Still dont know why people buy toiletpaper.  

I'm just surfacing new info. New Study from the New England journal of medicine.  See src.


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## notimp (Mar 18, 2020)

New Study from the Imperial College in London (model (calculations)) asserts that 25% of all 60+ year old patients might need intensive medical care in the future).

If no countermeasures were taken, according to their model 500.000 people in the UK would die, and 2,2 million in the US.
src: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196234/covid19-imperial-researchers-model-likely-impact/

Countermessures to slow down spread ARE taken though.  If people can slow down spread to 60-70% of people worldwide, to two years, everything goes over well. 1 year already is somewhat of an issue (but should be leveled off by rushing vaccine development (for some risk groups) - if you do that, states would have to cover risk).
src: Coronavirus-Update #16: "Wir brauchen Abkürzungen bei der Impfstoffzulassung" | NDR Podcast (german)


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## Pleng (Mar 19, 2020)

I'm no scientist so I may be talking a load or arse, but to me smartphones seems like perfect receptacles for catching yourself a nice portion of take-home Corona. Every day I get on a train full of people all wearing masks, and 90+% of them holding their phones in their hands. Surely these are ideal landing pads for any little virus particles floating around in the air? If so then all the hand sanitizers at stations and face masks seem pretty much redundant if the virus can just attach itself to your third arm and have a free ride into your personal living space.

Anybody more scientific than me care to analyse this theory?


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## notimp (Mar 19, 2020)

Not so much landing pads (but still, also correct), because most of the 'distribution' is still done by hand (hand, face, world), but as hands are touching smartphones - yes.  Dont share your smartphones for a (maybe long) while, wash hands often, limit certain activities on your smartphone, thereby limiting how often you touch it. Cleaning it more often (with something that removes an oily surface film (same way washing hands works), then washing your hands) would all be good ideas.

All those are about limiting chance of infection (Concentration of virus also plays a role, when or if you first get infected (also virus hanging around in the air is far less concentrated, so also lower chance of infection, so washing hands, still a very good idea)).

There you get into 'hacking your behavior patterns' (how you use smartphone, when you wash hands, ...).

For that, if you want to, you can watch that (best practices for that are talked about in there):


Its usually hard, so society gets recommended only the most promising one of those (wash hands often). 

Also, don't get too OCD..


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## morvoran (Mar 19, 2020)

No only is the virus causing mass hysteria, it's also turned the US into a socialist country.  Now, we have people standing in lines for essentials at markets, the government taking control of our daily lives/movements, giving people $1000 (or UBI), etc.  SMH!!!

I can't believe that a virus that kills less people than the flu or common cold (why don't we take caution every year when any one is susceptible of dying from these diseases?) has caused us to give up our rights/liberties and allowed ourselves to be controlled by fear.  We should all be ashamed of the governments and fellow citizens.


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## notimp (Mar 19, 2020)

morvoran said:


> No only is the virus causing mass hysteria, it's also turned the US into a socialist country. Now, we have people standing in lines for essentials at markets, the government taking control of our daily lives/movements, giving people $1000 (or UBI), etc. SMH!!!


No lines for food here yet (in a democratic socialist country close to one of the epicenters of the outbreak).

1000 USD for everyone (concept) is preparation for telling people not to come to work for stints of up to one month. (This is how you flatten the curve more harshly. (This is also why you would close schools, same concept.). And in the US you have to do it that way, because you dont have many other (social) security nets.) Mixed with a concept called "helicopter money" to help the stock market recovering.

I'm absolutely sure it will go away, once something to alleviate dealing with the actual sickness is found (remedy, vaccine..). 

If it comes to it it will come with instructions to mostly stay home though, and most bars and restaurants being closed. So dang it, no shouting at people (conceptually) for drinking it away. 

Also that Jesse Lee Peterson Show, you draw your avatar from. Pretty coo-coo ... Just saying. If you are not him, maybe watch him less. Worth a mention..


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## Pleng (Mar 19, 2020)

notimp said:


> Not so much landing pads (but still, also correct), because most of the 'distribution' is still done by hand (hand, face, world), but as hands are touching smartphones - yes.



It's my understanding that it can last in the air for a certain amount of time, and then on surfaces for a while longer? And it that is indeed the case then surely it can last long enough from exiting somebody's body in a crowded train or supermarket or wherever to latch on to a smattering of phones?



> Also, don't get too OCD..



I can barely stand up straight on a moving train let alone hold a phone still at the same time, so it's not really something to concern me personally.


----------



## Xzi (Mar 19, 2020)

morvoran said:


> No only is the virus causing mass hysteria, it's also turned the US into a socialist country.


Rofl, I wish.  The virus is doing a good job of exposing capitalism's many flaws, though.



morvoran said:


> Now, we have people standing in lines for essentials at markets


Which we...always...had?  There aren't really shortages of anything, people are just hoarding more than they need which makes essentials look scarce.



morvoran said:


> the government taking control of our daily lives/movements


I must've missed the phone call in which Jared Kushner was supposed to relay my daily schedule to me. 



morvoran said:


> giving people $1000 (or UBI)


Okay, the irony in that one is pretty funny.  But it's also a necessity given that a lot of people will be losing their jobs over this, and like half of America would fall below the poverty line if forced to foot the entire bill for two months of self-isolation.  Turns out our "great economy" was hanging by a thread this entire time.



morvoran said:


> why don't we take caution every year when any one is susceptible of dying from these diseases?


We do.  There's a vaccine for the flu available yearly.  Also, the mortality rate of the flu is about 0.1%, with the common cold being considerably lower than that.  The numbers for COVID-19 aren't solidified yet, but it's somewhere between a 1% and 3% mortality rate, anywhere from 10x to 30x as bad as the flu.  With no vaccine available.



morvoran said:


> We should all be ashamed of the governments and fellow citizens.


Oh I am definitely ashamed of our government and their slow, half-assed reaction to the start of this pandemic.  With the exception of the hoarders, most citizens reacted appropriately and with common sense, well before the government told them to.


----------



## notimp (Mar 19, 2020)

Pleng said:


> It's my understanding that it can last in the air for a certain amount of time, and then on surfaces for a while longer? And it that is indeed the case then surely it can last long enough from exiting somebody's body in a crowded train or supermarket or wherever to latch on to a smattering of phones?


Yes.

But.  Sneezing usually goes downward (and people are currently trained by TV (in my country) to use tissues or their elbow), and after sneezing or coughing most of the virus falls out of the air immediately (too heavy) only particles mixed with warm air/mukus can remain in the air for longer (read source of one of the last links I posted  ).

See it that way. President stood very close too a guy in the brasillian delegation at Mar-a-Lago who confirmed has it, and didnt get infected. And Subway trains now get disinfected more often than Mar-a-Lago. 

Also, if you are not in the risk group for complications (older, preexisting condition), only 4% of people who got it currently are estimated to visit a hospital. Because the progression of the illness in most people is the opposite of problematic. All the things we do, we do for half, of those four percent (the ones wo eventually need intensive care). edit: And all the other people in hospital at the same time.

And the way you stop all those new things (plans being put into action) around us from happening is by 60-70 percent of the population getting it, or getting vaccinated. Vaccines in the first year (when they'll come into existance) will be limited to people in the risk groups mostly - because it is likely that calculated risk is taken to skip some of the side effect studies.

What people are doing is try to limit the quickness of how it progresses. So less people are catching it as quickly. Thats why people are doing all those strange new things. Not because we would be especially worried about most people - its just that as it spreads too quickly, the people with a high risk profile become so many quickly - that we want to prevent hospitals from having to turn away people.

So we are doing that stuff not so much because we in aggregate are very worried about the sickness, but about hospitals being overwhelmed in a short time.

(Difference between death rate of 0.8% and 5% of all infected.)

Probably shouldnt end on death rate ey?  Oh well..


----------



## morvoran (Mar 19, 2020)

Xzi said:


> Rofl, I wish. The virus is doing a good job of exposing capitalism's many flaws, though.


 Not the flaw in capitalism, the flaw in humanity as a whole.  Businesses are not responsible for people not washing their hands and spreading diseases.



Xzi said:


> Which we...always...had? There aren't really shortages of anything, people are just hoarding more than they need which makes essentials look scarce.


 Sorry but standing in line for the latest iPhone revision is not a necessity, so that doesn't count in this case.  When people hoard something, that causes a shortage for others.



Xzi said:


> I must've missed the phone call in which Jared Kushner was supposed to relay my daily schedule to me.


 You must not have a job or small business that was affected by the government calling on these businesses to either close or cut their hours.  Oh, xzi wasn't affected by a crisis, so no one else should panic.  Move along, folks.



Xzi said:


> Turns out our "great economy" was hanging by a thread this entire time


 No,the economy is still strong.  We just have the lame stream media blowing everything out of proportion and causing everybody to fear the worst when the problem isn't that bad.



Xzi said:


> We do. There's a vaccine for the flu available yearly. Also, the mortality rate of the flu is about 0.1%, with the common cold being considerably lower than that. The numbers for COVID-19 aren't solidified yet, but it's somewhere between a 1% and 3% mortality rate, anywhere from 10x to 30x as bad as the flu. With no vaccine available.


 As much bullshit you pull out of your ass, I bet you never worry about getting an impacted colon.  Wow.  I guess MSDNC has really got you convinced with their lies.



Xzi said:


> Oh I am definitely ashamed of our government and their slow, half-assed reaction to the start of this pandemic.


. Yeah, those damn democrats were too busy looking for a new way to impeach Trump and calling him a xenophobic racist, that they really dropped the ball on this one.  Maybe they'll learn to work with the president instead of their personal agendas in the future and this won't happen again.


On another issue, sorry (not really) to hear about Bernie losing the nomination (again).  I guess you won't get your Socialist in Chief this time around either.  Maybe next time.


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## JoeBloggs777 (Mar 19, 2020)

notimp said:


> (Difference between death rate of 0.8% and 5+% of all infected.)



talking about rates, any idea why Japans rate of infections and death are so low, say compared to the UK, Japan has less than 1,000 recorded cases of the Coronavirus with only 33 deaths. Japan was one of the first countries outside China to become infected, compare that  to the  UK, who have nearly 3 times the cases and number of deaths, yet the UK's first case was much later and have half the population size of Japan.

What are Japan doing differently to anyone else ?


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## KingVamp (Mar 19, 2020)

Xzi said:


> Okay, the irony in that one is pretty funny.  But it's also a necessity given that a lot of people will be losing their jobs over this, and like half of America would fall below the poverty line if forced to foot the entire bill for two months of self-isolation.  Turns out our "great economy" was hanging by a thread this entire time.


You mean people living paycheck to paycheck, or even worse, isn't a great economy?


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## notimp (Mar 19, 2020)

JoeBloggs777 said:


> talking about rates, any idea why Japans rate of infections and death are so low, say compared to the UK, Japan has less than 1,000 recorded cases of the Coronavirus with only 33 deaths. Japan was one of the first countries outside China to become infected, compare that  to the  UK, who have nearly 3 times the cases and number of deaths, yet the UK's first case was much later and have half the population size of Japan.
> 
> What are Japan doing differently to anyone else ?


There was no question, that the virus would cross over, so 'harsh' measures (the ones we are seeing in europe currently) were taken more quickly, flattening current progression rate earlier.

Same as with singapore, f.e.

We (rest of the world that isnt close to china) were less 'attune' to the problematic nature of it for a while, so it could spread freely for a little longer (also meaning multiple vectors (so multiple groups of people spreading it (a wintersport resort in austria currently has gotten very bad press for partying until the end of season, and then sending all those people back home... )).

Basically it doesnt spread uniformly.  Because of reasons. You see it in the US as well, you might have been affected later, because you had asia engaging in all those protective measures.

Also people in japan are culturally accustom to wearing facemasks, when having caught a flu. Maybe that plays into it as well, I dont know. Thats speculation. Actually, most of what I've just written would be..  (Testing doesnt allow us to see everything very clearly. As we are testing only a limited amount of people. Thats also a thing, low infection numbers because of limited test availability.)

If you are into modeling that stuff, look at the Imperial College London study, maybe. For some parameters, they just asked experts.  (So there is uncertainty on some factors. That also plays a large role on outcome. But then we saw what happend in italy (hospitals overflown), and politics is setting actions into place, based on that.)


edit: edited.

edit2:

"Early" would explain low case numbers, but not lower percentage based growth rate.
So relative growth rate decrease would have to be societal factors (like not shaking hands, self isolation... ).


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## Xzi (Mar 19, 2020)

morvoran said:


> Sorry but standing in line for the latest iPhone revision is not a necessity, so that doesn't count in this case.


I meant that people always stood in line at grocery stores to buy necessities.  The lines being longer isn't much of a change.



morvoran said:


> You must not have a job or small business that was affected by the government calling on these businesses to either close or cut their hours.


That's not the same as the government taking control of our daily lives, as you first claimed.



morvoran said:


> No,the economy is still strong.


Rofl, it's already a foregone conclusion that we're going into recession.  Now it's just a matter of waiting to see if it turns in to a full-on depression.



morvoran said:


> As much bullshit you pull out of your ass, I bet you never worry about getting an impacted colon. Wow.


I can pull a source for absolutely everything I wrote there, so what exactly are you contesting?  Or are you just being a douche for the hell of it again?



morvoran said:


> Yeah, those damn democrats were too busy looking for a new way to impeach Trump


Dems passed a bill immediately while Trump was still calling the virus a "hoax," but okay.



KingVamp said:


> You mean people living paycheck to paycheck, or even worse, isn't a great economy?


Big shocker that, I know.


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## Pleng (Mar 19, 2020)

morvoran said:


> You must not have a job or small business that was affected by the government calling on these businesses to either close or cut their hours. Oh, xzi wasn't affected by a crisis, so no one else should panic. Move along, folks.



And that's the crux of it. Mostly the people who are crying "this is all hysteria we need to go on as usual" are (a subset) of those who are directly being affected by it. Well, shit, you got dealt a bad blow. That's life and nobody said life was going to be fair. In a situation like this there's always going to be some people who come out of it a lot worse than others. There's no winners, just different levels of losers.


----------



## morvoran (Mar 19, 2020)

KingVamp said:


> You mean people living paycheck to paycheck, or even worse, isn't a great economy?


  People have always lived paycheck to paycheck in bad and good economies due to the fact that grown adults think servicing coffee or flipping burgers as careers.  Not a good example for what's going on right now.



Xzi said:


> I meant that people always stood in line at grocery stores to buy necessities. The lines being longer isn't much of a change.


  I don't know if you ever been in a grocery store before or your mom still does your shopping for you, but people have been standing in a separate line just to get toilet paper/bread/milk/etc.  I'm not talking about standing in line to check out.



Xzi said:


> That's not the same as the government taking control of our daily lives, as you first claimed.


 I was referring more to curfews and banning social events, but whatever, I guess you see that as a good thing since that's the kind of country you want to live in.



Xzi said:


> Rofl, it's already a foregone conclusion that we're going into recession. Now it's just a matter of waiting to see if it turns in to a full-on depression.I can pull a source for absolutely everything I wrote there, so what exactly are you contesting? Or are you just being a douche for the hell of it again?





Xzi said:


> I can pull a source for absolutely everything I wrote there, so what exactly are you contesting? Or are you just being a douche for the hell of it again?


 I'm contesting the fact that you get your "info" from the same fake news orgs that started this whole mass hysteria fiasco.  Here's an example of your sources - 
I don't know why you would claim that I fill myself with water and vinegar and clean the inside of a female body part.  That's a little off topic.



Xzi said:


> Dems passed a bill immediately while Trump was still calling the virus a "hoax," but okay.


  Trump never called the virus a "hoax".  He said that the Dumbocrats and lame stream media attacking him about not doing anything about the virus and causing mass hysteria was the hoax.  I guess you wouldn't know that since you only listen to Fredo Cuomo for your news.  Trump started handing the virus with all the travel bans he put in place that they demonrats called xenophobic and racist.  The demonrats were the ones who were slow to start taking this matter seriously.

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------



Pleng said:


> And that's the crux of it. Mostly the people who are crying "this is all hysteria we need to go on as usual" are (a subset) of those who are directly being affected by it. Well, shit, you got dealt a bad blow. That's life and nobody said life was going to be fair. In a situation like this there's always going to be some people who come out of it a lot worse than others. There's no winners, just different levels of losers.


  The same could be said about the people who get sick.  I haven't had the flu in decades and never get a flu shot, but I don't demand the world stop moving every flu season in order to prevent any chances that I might get sick.  In fact, people should be doing things to prevent spreading diseases all year round such as washing hands, sanitizing schools, wiping down surfaces with disinfectants, etc.  
We need to stop taking every little thing the lame stream media says and creating mass hysteria with every new disease that comes out.  When there is a disease that spreads through the air that causes us to shit blood and die within hours and is incurable, I will start to freak out.  Until then, we shouldn't be shutting down our economies and societies over something that is being blown out of proportion.


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## Pleng (Mar 19, 2020)

morvoran said:


> Dumbocrats



Ah... I see. I think I'll stop engaging there.


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## Xzi (Mar 19, 2020)

morvoran said:


> people have been standing in a separate line just to get toilet paper/bread/milk/etc.


Oh no, multiple lines!  What ever shall we do, can your little virgin heart handle that kind of stress?



morvoran said:


> I was referring more to curfews and banning social events, but whatever, I guess you see that as a good thing since that's the kind of country you want to live in.


The kind of country where the health and well-being of citizens is prioritized over corporate greed?  Yeah, that is the kind of country I'd like to live in.



morvoran said:


> I'm contesting the fact that you get your "info" from the same fake news orgs


Okay, I'll go ahead and mark that down as general douchebaggery and ignorance then.  You don't have to go to MSNBC or CNN to look into microbiology or infectious diseases, Christ you're dumb.  



morvoran said:


> Trump never called the virus a "hoax".


He did, and that was like ten dumbshit statements ago.  He's a big part of the reason the stock market is tanking so hard despite every attempt to cushion it...the big money investors have zero confidence in the federal government right now.


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## morvoran (Mar 19, 2020)

Xzi said:


> Oh no, multiple lines! What ever shall we do, can your little virgin heart handle that kind of stress?


 Oh, just because you don't have to stand in those extra lines don't mean they're not inconvenient to others.  Ask your roommate (aka mommy) how inconvenient it is since she does all the chores for you.  
The fact that we have to queue up in a line and hope there is enough to go around is a major issue with the mass hysteria going on now (and socialism in general).



Xzi said:


> The kind of country where the health and well-being of citizens is prioritized over corporate greed? Yeah, that is the kind of country I'd like to live


 Oh, the kind of corporate greed that you contribute to on a daily basis? How hypocritical of you!  
Maybe, if you didn't blindly listen to your media, you'd see just how ungreedy some corporations are being during this mass hysteria.
I'd prefer to live in a country where a left leaning political party didn't politicize the fears of the citizens to attack a sitting president and put the health and economy over their own desires.



Xzi said:


> Okay, I'll go ahead and mark that down as general douchebaggery and ignorance then. You don't have to go to MSNBC or CNN to look into microbiology or infectious diseases, Christ you're dumb.


 Then why don't you look into those other places instead of trusting and spewing the lies of your leaders?  Mother Mary, you're so ignorantly blinded by your faith in the left.



Xzi said:


> He did,


Wrong! He didn't.  Never said the virus was a hoax.  Go watch the entire video and listen carefully and take your liberal earplugs out.


Xzi said:


> He's a big part of the reason the stock market is tanking so hard despite every attempt to cushion it...the big money investors have zero confidence in the federal government right now.


 Wow, and you have the audacity to call me dumb?  
Did you ever consider that maybe the stocks are falling because most of our stuff(including medicine) is made in china?  Since the Chinese people are being forced to stay home and not make the things our economy needs, our corporations are not making profits now causing their value to drop and people to sell off their stocks.  That on top of the mass hysteria caused by the left wing media.  Maybe try looking into economics instead of the lies of your leaders.

By the way, Democrat policies are the reason china makes most of our goods.  Maybe, you could thank your leaders for that when you are licking their boots.


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## Xzi (Mar 19, 2020)

morvoran said:


> The fact that we have to queue up in a line and hope there is enough to go around is a major issue with the mass hysteria going on now (and socialism in general).


If you want to complain about the practice of hoarding, be my guest.  The only issue being that it's practice which is a direct result of capitalism and wealth inequality.  Suggesting that America is suddenly a socialist country, and only in this one instance, is beyond moronic.



morvoran said:


> Oh, the kind of corporate greed that you contribute to on a daily basis? How hypocritical of you!


"You criticize society yet you also participate in it...how curious."



morvoran said:


> Then why don't you look into those other places instead of trusting and spewing the lies of your leaders?


You didn't ask for any sources you dipshit.  None of what I was going to post was going to be from news sites.



morvoran said:


> Did you ever consider that maybe the stocks are falling because most of our stuff(including medicine) is made in china?


Every country is dealing with this, and every country's economy/manufacturing is going to be negatively affected to varying degrees of severity.  That doesn't mean competent leadership isn't capable of cushioning the blow, and it doesn't mean that incompetent leadership can't continue to make things worse than they would have been otherwise.


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## ghjfdtg (Mar 19, 2020)

How did this turn into a left vs. right poo fight?

A week ago i thought it was mostly panic/hysteria too but this is now reaching dangerous levels in some countries. High enough to overwhelm healthcare and people die because there is not enough personnel in hospitals to handle all the cases.

If people would not be so selfish and hoard tons of food (or toilet paper) everyone would get what he needs.


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## Xzi (Mar 19, 2020)

ghjfdtg said:


> How did this turn into a left vs. right poo fight?


The right-wing in America doesn't believe in science, so getting them to accept basic facts is always a struggle, even when it's potentially a matter of life and death.  The anti-intellectualism movement is a plague much worse than COVID-19 could ever hope to be.



ghjfdtg said:


> A week ago i thought it was mostly panic/hysteria too but this is now reaching dangerous levels in some countries. High enough to overwhelm healthcare and people die because there is not enough personnel in hospitals to handle all the cases.


Yes, and it's still going to get worse before it gets better.  If Americans don't take this seriously and take all necessary preventative actions now, Italy is going to start looking like paradise by comparison.


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## Viri (Mar 19, 2020)

Remember the media loves bad news, and loves to make people panic, as it causes them to get more eye balls! The media is eating this up, they're making so much money off ads. Good news doesn't get them as many viewers.


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## Deleted User (Mar 19, 2020)

Pleng said:


> I'm no scientist so I may be talking a load or arse, but to me smartphones seems like perfect receptacles for catching yourself a nice portion of take-home Corona. Every day I get on a train full of people all wearing masks, and 90+% of them holding their phones in their hands. Surely these are ideal landing pads for any little virus particles floating around in the air? If so then all the hand sanitizers at stations and face masks seem pretty much redundant if the virus can just attach itself to your third arm and have a free ride into your personal living space.
> 
> Anybody more scientific than me care to analyse this theory?


https://www.ijcmas.com/vol-3-4/Kausar Malik and Nabiha Naeem.pdf
There are actually more Escherichia coli bacteria on Smartphone, PC Tablet than in the toilet.


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## notimp (Mar 19, 2020)

Viri said:


> Remember the media loves bad news, and loves to make people panic, as it causes them to get more eye balls! The media is eating this up, they're making so much money off ads. Good news doesn't get them as many viewers.


Now replace media with "(authors of) crime novels". And read the sentence again. 

Also advertisers actually dont like that stuff, because they deem it controversial. But that actually was operational logic from a time, when users still payed for media mostly. So media could and would pick which advertisers to go with.

Advanced lesson:

Find the "Murder, sex and crime" in domesitc politics, foreign politics, economics, culture and sport. Because aside from 'local' those are the main news categories in any paper youd buy.

Of course you are skipping those (looked at the Dow Jones lately?) and go exactly to Human interest stories, personal interest and people died - to characterize media, because?

The media forced you to?

Still the first lesson. Its about highjacking your attention span. Same thing every youtuber does with duckface and wide eyed played emotion on every popular youtube video ever. Fontsetting and title crafting they both have figured out. And to be honest, I personally like to read my media with 'murder mysteries' over 'duckface fake emotion mugshots' all the time. If I had to pick. Luckily I dont have to (I dont read yellow press, if I have the choice.).


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## D34DL1N3R (Mar 19, 2020)




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## LumInvader (Mar 21, 2020)

Updated Covid-19 mortality rate among closed cases:

11%

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


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## FAST6191 (Mar 21, 2020)

LumInvader said:


> Updated Covid-19 mortality rate among closed cases:
> 
> 11%
> 
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


Going for the lies, damn lies and statistics approach are we?

On the site I clicked on the country graph and grabbed the numbers. Nice new column for Total deaths / Total cases * 100 because they care to tell me how many are still critical but not that. Nothing among the big numbers of cases seems close to that, Italy being the worst (assuming China is accurate of course, which I think we are doubting) at any major rate at 8.57489206950086%, Indonesia just edging it out for enough cases to count (Sudan had 2 cases, 1 dead, anybody else has not clocked 100 cases -- though San Marino is pretty high for what it is mind you). Most others barely clear 1% and only Spain in the developed countries that are not Italy to go over 5% (the UK might end up there if this drags on for too much longer, and France still seems to have enough in the serious/critical column to tip it over). 11.7021276595745 does seem to be Algeria's percentage though with that from 94 cases).
None of that says how many were elderly and/or infirm either.


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## LumInvader (Mar 21, 2020)

FAST6191 said:


> Going for the lies, damn lies and statistics approach are we?
> 
> On the site I clicked on the country graph and grabbed the numbers. Nice new column for Total deaths / Total cases * 100 because they care to tell me how many are still critical but not that. Nothing among the big numbers of cases seems close to that, Italy being the worst (assuming China is accurate of course, which I think we are doubting) at any major rate at 8.57489206950086%, Indonesia just edging it out for enough cases to count (Sudan had 2 cases, 1 dead, anybody else has not clocked 100 cases -- though San Marino is pretty high for what it is mind you). Most others barely clear 1% and only Spain in the developed countries that are not Italy to go over 5% (the UK might end up there if this drags on for too much longer, and France still seems to have enough in the serious/critical column to tip it over). 11.7021276595745 does seem to be Algeria's percentage though with that from 94 cases).
> None of that says how many were elderly and/or infirm either.


While few people here have ever heard of Worldmeters, I'm fairly certain most have heard of Reuters.  Their data that is slightly lagging behind, but is _identical_ to where Worldmeters numbers were at earlier in the day, including the overall mortality rate among closed cases:

10%

https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-MAP/0100B59S39E/index.html


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## FAST6191 (Mar 21, 2020)

LumInvader said:


> While few people here have ever heard of Worldmeters, I'm fairly certain most have heard of Reuters.  Their data that is slightly lagging behind, but is _identical_ to where Worldmeters numbers were at earlier in the day, including the overall mortality rate among closed cases:
> 
> 10%
> 
> https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-MAP/0100B59S39E/index.html


I was not doubting worldmeters (was prepared to but assumed it was good for the purposes of that).

Still if we are using Reuters then going from their totals graph (can't be bothered to play with the spreadsheet right now)
Worldwide
254,762(+9,713)	89,945(+1,457)	10,451(+423)

10451/254762

That is 
4.10226014869%

Again that is worldwide too. Pick various countries with decent healthcare and it is even better, though many cases are still active in a lot of those (Japan seems to be on the downswing and doing pretty well).


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## LumInvader (Mar 21, 2020)

FAST6191 said:


> I was not doubting worldmeters (was prepared to but assumed it was good for the purposes of that).
> 
> Still if we are using Reuters then going from their totals graph (can't be bothered to play with the spreadsheet right now)
> Worldwide
> ...


If you scroll up, you'll notice I'm citing data from "closed cases" since those are the true measure of success or failure toward fighting this illness.  Adding in patients who were just diagnosed today or yesterday shouldn't count as a success or failure.  These new cases count toward the total figure, which is important for other reasons such as measuring the curve of the spread.


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## subcon959 (Mar 21, 2020)

The difference between those numbers is also important as it will show how well healthcare is coping. This is why it's so important for people to follow the social distancing advice (even if they still think it's nonsense) as that percentage for cases with an outcome will continue to jump ahead of the overall deathrate as people start to die due to lack of resources.


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## FAST6191 (Mar 21, 2020)

LumInvader said:


> If you scroll up, you'll notice I'm citing data from "closed cases" since those are the true measure of success or failure toward fighting this illness.  Adding in patients who were just diagnosed today or yesterday shouldn't count as a success or failure.  These new cases count toward the total figure, which is important for other reasons such as measuring the curve of the spread.


When all is said and done then OK, most places that are not China (apparently) and maybe Japan with Iran maybe heading there as well seem to still be well the predominantly active/spread phase (don't know if we will see the second and third waves common in this sort of thing). Going back to the other source then there are a few places with a lot of critical cases (France for example) that could see it go higher.


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## LumInvader (Mar 21, 2020)

subcon959 said:


> The difference between those numbers is also important as it will show how well healthcare is coping. This is why it's so important for people to follow the social distancing advice (even if they still think it's nonsense) as that percentage for cases with an outcome will continue to jump ahead of the overall deathrate as people start to die due to lack of resources.


Agreed.  I do believe the current mortality rate (11%) will eventually come down since that number is being driven by a daily increase in total cases.  It takes 2-3 weeks to get over Covid-19, but sadly, many of those who don't make it probably didn't make it that far.  I also believe once the curve flattens and the mortality rate normalizes it'll be easier for scientists to make an estimation based on the rate of spread (r0) and applying it to existing data sets.  Which means that the 11% figure we're seeing right now will likely go down, but may remain higher than the Spanish Flu (H1N1) figure from 1918.

Also of concern are the interviews I'm seeing from medical professionals claiming that the data out of China didn't accurately reflect the severity of the illness or the ages of those with serious infections.  IIRC, China cited that 80% of their cases were mild, while in the US we're seeing half of those patients developing pneumonia which takes much longer than 14 days to recover from.  Also, I've been hearing that half of those in US ICU are ages 65 and below, which suggests that this bug doesn't just prey on the old and sick.


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## subcon959 (Mar 21, 2020)

LumInvader said:


> Also of concern are the interviews I'm seeing from medical professionals claiming that the data out of China didn't accurately reflect the severity of the illness or the ages of those with serious infections.  IIRC, China cited that 80% of their cases were mild, while in the US we're seeing half of those patients developing pneumonia which takes much longer than 14 days to recover from.  Also, I've been hearing that half of those in US ICU are ages 65 and below, which suggests that this bug doesn't just prey on the old and sick.


Yes. I saw an interview with a doctor in Holland who said that it was 50% below 70 in his hospital. He made it clear though that the outcomes were usually much better for the younger 50%. However, I'm not sure enough people realise that they are not magically immune because they're teenagers, and it's very easy for anyone of any age to end up hospitalised and if the service is struggling at that time it's going to be a bad experience.


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## nolimits59 (Mar 21, 2020)

subcon959 said:


> Yes. I saw an interview with a doctor in Holland who said that it was 50% below 70 in his hospital. He made it clear though that the outcomes were usually much better for the younger 50%. However, I'm not sure enough people realise that they are not magically immune because they're teenagers, and it's very easy for anyone of any age to end up hospitalised and if the service is struggling at that time it's going to be a bad experience.



6% of young infected (including young kids) are suffering of grave symptoms from the virus, yes, youngs a more likely to not get symptoms or die, but 6% of them do, and eventually, die.

Theses scary numbers are provided by one of the most hit country, Italia.

They're taking a big hit but their numbers and analysis are crucial informations that we get.


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## notimp (Mar 22, 2020)

Mortality rate of young people (<16-35) that I've seen in western countries is 0.2%. Number for people suffering from grave symptoms is about 2%. With a hospitalization rate of about 4% (only estimated 4% of people infected need hospitalization).

Thats in a 'working system' (so not too stressed, not overflown).

In my estimation 'young people also are affected' is a truism, to get idiots off the streets, when you try to curb the curve through curfews.

All those measures are only really effective if you can coordinate them. If you have a group of people playing 'invincible' on the beach, they still are very good carriers for infection.

I say 'young people are not immune' is mostly PR. But, also remember that young people get all the respirators. (In Italy situation has now escalated so far, that people above 60 dont get them at all (too few available).) So at least feel uneasy knowing, that you'll probably be fine. 

Sick vs. cured percentages probably can't be sensibly used, because the estimated number of unreported cases is so high, and at the same time a higher percentage of people with preexisting conditions might die earlier, but then not be available to die later on. And once you are dying, you are more likely to get tested.. 

Mortality rate will fluctuate though, because of the exponential nature of the distribution. Its very hard to know 'where in the curve' you are at any given point. F.e. lets say curfews bring down new infections, while death rate still stays stable for a while (people already infected), that also would hike up relative deathrate (delay). So extrapolating from percentages at any given point to "the risk for the entire population" is very hard.

Basically you cant just look at one or two statistics, you need models. So look those up if you are interested.

edit: Some stats: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18...of-risk-confirms-young-adults-not-invincible/
(Really just one of the first articles sourced via google search for corona deathrate by age.)


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## notimp (Mar 22, 2020)

Upon trying to wrap my head around this again-
- Number of people cured (measured) in the same timeframe should be by a disproportionate factor lower than people getting over it in the general public.
- Low test availability plays a significant role in this as well.

Structurally so, because lets say test capabilities increase roughly linearly, but the virus spreads on an exponential curve, at some trajectory of the exponential curve you can only test linearly more people every day, but the death toll still rises exponentially. Hence 'measured' deathrate rises, over people testedly getting over it (People more likely to get tested, when they show, heavier symptoms/are in danger of dying). But actual one doesnt (if hospitals f.e. still are operational).

Basically the "people getting better" number is useless, and only part of statistics, to give people an easy emotional thing thats bigger, to latch on.

Any statistic using that as a reference should be pretty useless.

Instead you probably are operating with "compared to previous quarters" numbers of increases of deaths vs. overall population, look at the current estimated case number and progression rate in your country, and extrapolate from there.

Why do I have to be math guy. I'm bad at math. Someone else be math guy.


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## emigre (Mar 22, 2020)

Nearly 15k people have died of this disease. We're still in the early phase. The next few months are going to be shut.


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## notimp (Mar 23, 2020)

Vatican just indicated that there will/can be a general absolution for corona.

So you know, that you only can go to heaven if your sins are forgiven by a priest in confession?

For corona priests now get the option to forgive your sins, without confession. They have to ask their bishop though. "Before, or shortly after". 



> To get complete absolution in the face of Corona Virus, it is sufficient if the people being infected by it, their caretakers and their relatives, as well as people in quarantine speak out the catholic statements of belief (creed), one Lords Prayer (Our Father) and one Virgin Mary prayer.


Always good to know the logistics..  (Shortage of priests in italy.  )

src: https://www.vaticannews.va/de/vatik...prechung-poenitentiarie-vollkommen-dekre.html (German) via fefe


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## phalk (Mar 23, 2020)

emigre said:


> Nearly 15k people have died of this disease. We're still in the early phase. The next few months are going to be shut.



If you count in people who die because of other reasons since you can't get a hospital bed and care in Italy for instance the number will be way bigger than that.

And there are people still defending it's 'hysteria'.


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## notimp (Mar 23, 2020)

Here you see the issue with projected deathrate meeting linear testing availability:





src: https://www.trackcorona.live/
(line graph)

If you see the recovered curve always progress linearly, you know that something is up.  (too few tests available and unequally distributed)

Otherwise 'recovered' curve is just lagging in exponentiality by about 10+ days. 

I've seen many versions of that graph, where people recovered are just added on top of the confirmed infection line for whatever reason.


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## notimp (Mar 23, 2020)

On average: Six days until first symptoms, another five days until first test, and and additional five days to death (if you die from it). Mean time infected people stayed at hospitals in China was around 10 days.

So the recovered curve shouldnt lag by more than 5 days. Tripple that for good measure. 15 days. If you see the curves diverging in exponentiality for more than that - something else is up.  (Unequal test distribution,..).
--

Also Poland and the Czech Republic went the nationalistic route and confiscated 700.000 masks that china sent for usage in Italy, as well as thousands of intubation/respirator devices.

May your children live a long and prosper life.

Those where their institutions in action.

edit: This article has confirmation, that in italy currently only people with severe symptoms are tested for the virus ( https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000116034673/italien-erhoeht-den-druck-um-trendumkehr-zu-erreichen ) (German). Means unequal distribution of tests.


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## hugofthunder (Mar 23, 2020)

My country is currently in the midst of this. There is no conspiracy to stir up hysteria, it's all real. Take care, everyone!


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## LumInvader (Mar 23, 2020)

Good points, notimp.

Covid-19's mortality rate is indeed inflated due to the reasons stated (I did make the same point earlier), although I'd argue that the raw data, which includes recovered patients, isn't useless and shows how much stress the healthcare systems are under and the success rate of said healthcare systems within a range of stress factors.  This data will prove especially useful during the next wave, which should underscore improvements due to the increased availability of test kits, improved treatments, and improved preparedness of both the hospitals and governments.

I'd also add that this topic originally appeared aimed at downplaying the risk; the raw data serves it's purpose as a counterpoint highlighting the danger of covid-19 to both individuals and society as a whole.  It's definitely not another flu -- it's a pandemic and should be treated as such.


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## subcon959 (Mar 23, 2020)

@Boesy it's been about 2 weeks since you created the topic, just wondering if you have changed your opinion and think it's something to take serious now? I'm finding it hard to find too much fault in the media for this one, if anything they are the only ones holding the governments accountable and asking the tough questions (at least from what I've seen in UK/US broadcasts). I'd like to see them push even harder since in my opinion the so called leaders have been caught with their pants down and have a lot to answer for.


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## spotanjo3 (Mar 23, 2020)

harvey weinstein tests positive and how did he get it ? He was in prison.


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## emigre (Mar 23, 2020)

UK now in lockdown for three weeks. Next few weeks are going to be shit but hopefully this will flatten the curve.


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## Taleweaver (Mar 23, 2020)

azoreseuropa said:


> harvey weinstein tests positive and how did he get it ? He was in prison.


It's certainly a weird case, but not an impossible one. He got sentenced the 11th; incubation time is up to 14 days (though it averages at around five). So he might have gotten it just before.

It's more likely that he got it from within the prison, though. Meaning: just exactly whom is tested in that place?


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## hugofthunder (Mar 24, 2020)

New York has 5% of the total worldwide cases now, there you go.


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## Attacker3 (Mar 24, 2020)

The biggest issue with all of this is that The Fed ran out of ways to deal with the economic impacts really quick. There is nothing the federal reserve can do now to offset the current state of the markets. The reason why a stimulus package is needed now is because interest rates have been set to 0% by the fed. That is how they to manipulate the economy, by lowering interest rates on short term loans. It's at 0%, they can't do anything now.


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## Tac 21 (Mar 24, 2020)

Attacker3 said:


> The biggest issue with all of this is that The Fed ran out of ways to deal with the economic impacts really quick. There is nothing the federal reserve can do now to offset the current state of the markets. The reason why a stimulus package is needed now is because interest rates have been set to 0% by the fed. That is how they to manipulate the economy, by lowering interest rates on short term loans. It's at 0%, they can't do anything now.




one wonders if this was part of a ploy by the Chinese or an outside force...

and to think, HEALTHCARE was USAs number 1 pressing issue.

well I'd take it seriously, I also think the media isn't helping by reporting only shocking bad news. Media is just eating this shit up when the entire WORLD has NEVER come together like this before via science community to work on understanding Covid and brining a vaccine/anti body we can all use


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## notimp (Mar 24, 2020)

Someone asked in here why case numbers in Japan where so low. Turns out they didnt enact harsh measures early, they just very good at mask usage (societally), following rules (social distancing, self isolating - when symptoms show), and not shaking hands.

Also testing there also is mostly done on people with harsh symptoms, so also not equally distributed.

(News article in a local paper.)


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## notimp (Mar 24, 2020)

Tac 21 said:


> one wonders if this was part of a ploy by the Chinese or an outside force...
> 
> and to think, HEALTHCARE was USAs number 1 pressing issue.
> 
> well I'd take it seriously, I also think the media isn't helping by reporting only shocking bad news. Media is just eating this shit up when the entire WORLD has NEVER come together like this before via science community to work on understanding Covid and brining a vaccine/anti body we can all use


If media was only reporting fluffy cloud news mostly you would ignore and not read it. Media bashing is the new "I'm with stupid" tshirt with an arrow pointing at yourself. It basically is you shouting very loud "I dont know how news works, I dont know how to select 'quality' sources, I havent read a newspaper in my life, and I am unable to reduce sensationalism by a flat factor of 30%, so they can attract other users via sensationalism, while still keeping me informed". Also "I have had no higher education, whatsoever."

Its basically you surrendering to yourself, telling everyone - its so hard reading this stuff, I'm so glad the far right gave me an excuse to still be uninformed and only fall for sensationalism, but now hate media and not me for not getting better educated. I'm Billy Bob.

And everyone that tells you you are an idiot, now automatically is a 'political opponent' so you dont have to change behavior or believes.

Its a trap. Its a scam. But because consuming media that isnt TV news to most people sounds like work, so they love to hate on media.

You could bash it all day - if you'd come up with something better. But to only pronounce, they are so bad - make them go away, and thereby hurting your own education and knowledgebase , takes a very special kind of person.

*You are so dumb uttered 20 times in a row.*

Now to address your other questions.

US while having the lousiest health care system for ordinary citizens in any country in the developed world - is not so much worried about epidemic outbreaks because of population density. If you are a very densly populated country you need to afford a better healthcare system for the entire public, the US does not. I'll make sure, that we take a look at the death numbers to overall population at the end of the year, witch should show the US only as minorly affected. As you also can see currently - your statewide measures are 'jack sh*t' because of that very (or at least similar) logic. In big cities in the US - an entire different logic is applied (much harsher measures.).

The US are basically in an almost unique position to be able to afford lousy healthcare - even with ongoing pandemics, because - ha ha, they dont spread so fast there. Otherwise you'd already have a better health care system. (How do you think, that this came to be historically?)

Also following your logic, of everyone that tells me to read is my enemy and in the wrong political party, you can be very proud, because mostly regions with an inbuilt strong democratic base (large cities) are most effected. Billy Bob in the backswamps doesnt get nearly as high odds of getting it fast. (Measures are employed so people get it slower).

So I have to conclude, if you are evil genius that wants to f*ck over the US by virus outbreak, because its too nationalistic, please start releasing the virus in the US next time (currently its one of the countries thats affected last, which should also help because of summer slowing down virus progression (more people outdoors), thereby also affected least).

As far as "the world never having come together like this" in developing a cure goes - thats entirely bullshit. The science community always was international, there hasnt been one additional international large scale project being founded short term because of this, and vaccine development goes on in many disperate places around the world, with everyone just sharing basic data (as science does). For all you care, china only shared RNA sequencing. You dont want their masks, you dont want their incubators, you dont even want the WHO tests, you developed those yourself (cost saving measures).

So maybe, in a future life - stop being such a dumbbell. Maybe try picking up media you pay for first - before complaining about what shows up in your facebook feeds and try to better that by extinguishing media entirely.

Idiot.

Of course it is entirely impossible to tell you something like this on facebook, the tik tok, or insta - because a post like this has now staying power there. In three hours its gone. As where in a forum (of a smaller size), we can all marvel for days about people like you self harming, putting crude theories on display (I'd have to lie if I'd say that I havent thought about this on my own before - because knowing 'the enemy' gives humans such a great sense of understanding (having mastery over) the world they live in ("Daddy, why does god exist?")), and then not wanting to be confronted with it a week down the road.

So this is your friendly reminder, that on forums - we can have public noticeboards with 'Billy Bob is a moron' stories on it, that last for weeks. (If people like morvorvan dont come a long an make this place a living nightmare, by so much compacted idiocy trolling, that self correction measures collaps, because no one wants to deal with it anymore.).

edit: To your defense. There is a way for you to still be 'somewhat correct'. If - at the end of all of this (lets say by summer of next year), death toll has still not exceeded lets say 200.000 people. News coverage would have been 'way out of proportion', and 'psychologic effects' would maybe have been what you could pronounce the 'most impactful outcome'. What may result because of them, you might not like politically. I dont know, speculation. Which also means, there is no 'obvious' direct path to any projected political outcome, because of this.

This logic has another problem. We might have gotten to that point, by employing behavior changes (curfews, self isolation, washing hands...) so to get there, we would have needed media sensationalism so people would start to learn about it.

Thats of course if you don't think the entire thing is a hoax. Which - newsflash - it isnt. (Or the virus would have an in built expiration date, which if I would design such a thing as an evil genius..  )

Btw by all expert opinions that I have heard, this thing really crossed over from a bat (you can see that in its RNA (think DNA) structure). Bats being such an ideal place for viruses to mutate and become 'stronger' because they have an almost uniquely strong immune system.
(see: https://www.sciencenews.org/article/bats-immune-system-viruses-ebola-marburg-people )

Conspiracy theory is more fun though.


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## Tac 21 (Mar 24, 2020)

TLR?


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## notimp (Mar 24, 2020)

Exactly. 

I put in a part at the end, where you could still be somewhat correct. 

Just to prevent that response..  (Learn something for once in your life, for Joshs (what?) sake.).

edit:

May have misrepresented one set of figures in here before.

Hospitalization rate is at around 13%.
Critical case rate (need for intensive care) is at around 5 %.

I think I might have conflated those two in here before.


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## notimp (Mar 24, 2020)

New Paradigm.

This stuff will change in the future (according to a center right german economics talking piece..  )

- more money will be invested to get strategically important pharma industry nationalized
- everyone will earn less (lower working hours work arrangements, so more people can be kept in work) for a while, so current middle class will pay for it, in the US this is harder to implement (state is basically guaranteeing job security by making payments to industry - is paying social security, but people are not 'officially' out of work, money for that comes from the middle classes/future generations (credit)) More home office in industries that can use it (*blahba*).

For our climate change friends:
- international personal travel (not wares) will be heavily reduced/minimized ("this is what spread it so fast!")
- Most concepts that banked on 'mass transport infrastructures' might be downranked in importance (future of mobility)

- PR is needed to tell people, that rural is beautiful, and we'd like to move our citizens back to farms again, and have them plant subsidized trees for living.

Hate almost all of that. But - oh well...

edit: Industries least (edit: negatively) affected by the corona outbreak are interesting as well:
- Property and real estate
- Energy, water, sewage and garbage/recycling
- Pharma
- Woodcraft, ceramics, plastics
- Information & Communication

Welcome to your future world. 

edit: Also interestingly the public sector might become less important (less tax income to use on the sector for a while).


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## subcon959 (Mar 24, 2020)

Actually, sewage is complaining of blockages due to people flushing more wet wipes with toilet paper shortage.


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## notimp (Mar 24, 2020)

subcon959 said:


> Actually, sewage is complaining of blockages due to people flushing more wet wipes with toilet paper shortage.


Yeah, we dont have that problem in germany.. 

(Also - great, more work (need) for them. You wont give up sewage as a result, wont you?  )


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## spotanjo3 (Mar 24, 2020)

Taleweaver said:


> It's certainly a weird case, but not an impossible one. He got sentenced the 11th; incubation time is up to 14 days (though it averages at around five). So he might have gotten it just before.
> 
> It's more likely that he got it from within the prison, though. Meaning: just exactly whom is tested in that place?



That's likely possible.

Yeah, good question.


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## Hanafuda (Mar 24, 2020)




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## notimp (Mar 25, 2020)

The 50% figure come out of that guys mind, or..?


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## notimp (Mar 25, 2020)

Summer not likely to slow down spread by much, according to ECDC.
src: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...o-halt-coronavirus-eu-body-says-idUSKBN21C246


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## notimp (Mar 26, 2020)

More philosophical commentary nonsense about 'using the crisis as a chance for behavioral change" ("war of the worlds" style angle), for a more climatefriendly future:

src: https://www.derstandard.at/story/20...aendnis-von-einem-guten-leben-wird-sich-durch (german)

Sh*t, so for 4% less deaths amongst our elderly, we shoehorned in the fourth life crisis for millenials (recession), and then should go with what Nanny and Granddad like in terms of "after a life of sustained personal stability and not giving a fuck about sustaining society - we honor thee by moving to the country, getting dumb and politically ineffective (no one cares about people in the country), planting trees, and pampering the fuckers that got us into this position, by not talking about this as a generational conflict".

Boomer cant loose. Even after corona they want their hero medal for not dying. And ruining the economy. And more attention because of it.

Look, they even have covinced their grandchildren, that climate is most importat. So stop your ambitions.

STOP YOUR AMBITIONS!

- 60% of all the irrational hate.

But thats a political doctrine.

And the fun part is, you cant even vote against it, because politics in most of western europe is an old folks bingo show.


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## notimp (Mar 26, 2020)

Jeffrey D. Sachs on the current status quo in the US:


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## notimp (Mar 27, 2020)

Donald Trump  (voice snippet) believes that the US will not need 40.000 ventilators, and hospitals will be fine with one or two.


Never laughed so hysterically in my life.


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## Hanafuda (Mar 27, 2020)

notimp said:


> Donald Trump  (voice snippet) believes that the US will not need 40.000 ventilators, and hospitals will be fine with one or two.
> 
> 
> Never laughed so hysterically in my life.





That video's like the Alex Jones of the left. I wonder how many cats she has at home?

Also as for the whole "the US has overtaken China to lead the world in cases in Covid-19" thing ...


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## notimp (Mar 27, 2020)

It is not. (You moron.)

Democracy now is well researched, and staffed, although with a focus on far left topics and pundits.

The format is my go to for a left to (/of) center left 'voice'.

I can tell you from how I use it for years now, that all I did to get 'relevant stuff' is to employ a filter for south american and activist topics (try to mostly listen over those), and it works wonderfully.

(Amy Goodman is so empathic to every interest on air (from "Thunberry" to native american interests, when pipelines are built) - that I couldnt endure watching without filtering at least some of that.)


Democracy now FREQUENTLY gets (interview) exclusives from the Washington Post to the NYT, interview guests like Jeffry D. Sachs (serves as special adviser to the United Nations (UN) Secretary-General António Guterres on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)), has all the relevant guests and analyses on individual and human rights causes...

Its basically THE place to look for stuff, that the NYT cant bring on the first page, because the public would freak.

And its used as such even by US institutions (interview guests), although about once every decade.


If you have no idea, shut the f*ck up. (Alex Jones my *ss)


On your china question. After you have those curfews, you have to get your populations working again ('play acting normality') without the virus gone yet.

Curfews are not there to 'beat corona virus' but to slow down rate of progression, so spread has to move on, and once you see it spiking again, you think about curfewing again.

But since those methods have such a high impact on economy. as a state - china or not, you lie your ass off - going out of a curfew. Will be similar in any other state on earth. China is just first.

Also, as you cant have the public freaking, when you do - you dont report numbers. What is there not to understand.


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## notimp (Mar 27, 2020)

Just to drive the point home - Interview with US Congress member Rep. Omar, from about an hour ago:


You go there and watch for the 'original commentary' (interviews with people that want to go on the record). Thats also, why you screen smaller outlets. Because you dont find those at the biggest ones. (Because it would be the 'talk of the town' if everyone did it in the NYT, or the WP, or... You dont want that on every issue. Not in this case (Rep. couldnt get a spot in the NYT for what little she was adding to the public discourse), but in others.).


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## notimp (Mar 27, 2020)

Why germany doesnt have a toilet paper shortage problem:


(We trust in intelligent people.  )


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## Ev1l0rd (Mar 27, 2020)

wrt Democracy Now: https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/democracy-now/

MBF considers them firmly left, mainly based on their choice of coverage and their choice of headlines. Factually however, their reporting is sound.


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## Hanafuda (Mar 28, 2020)

@DinohScene, why the censoring? Nothing I said was directed at anyone here on gbatemp, only expressing my (admittedly, very strong) feelings about Ilhan Omar. But people say those kind of things about President Trump here every day. Someone further up this same page called me a moron ... you didn't censor that.

Never mind, you don't have to answer.


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## notimp (Mar 28, 2020)

That was a literal quote of what came out of his mouth on FOX.

No commentary made, by the news source. In fact they just added silence. The point of me adding *hysterical laughter* was not to influence anyones behavior in the next election (I dont even live in the US), but to break that god darn spell over some of you - that president can do no wrong (in Steve Jobs popular parlance: 'reality distortion field').

The guy is an absolute idiot. I didnt know 5% of it until I started looking. There is no general media reporting around the world on that recent stinger of his. If you have more reach than 'one guy on gbatemp' you tend to want to not to worry people in a situation like this.

Republicans are still fine. No one that didnt look closely saw it.


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## notimp (Mar 28, 2020)

2 Trillion USD? Did you mean 6 Trillion USD?
https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/coronavirus-stimulus-package-to-exceed-6t-larry-kudlow-says/

This is the activist angle on it:
h**ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxJPFwo4fQI


----------



## notimp (Mar 28, 2020)

Messaging for the US and Germany is very different. I'm confused.


According to Billy Boy - infection rate may be significantly lower, when people are infected, and show no symptoms (thats news to me), so using quarantine you may be able to limit contagion to only one percent of US population.

For how long? (Behavior modifications on people dont work so well over the long term. Also there is an end to summer eventually.)

According to this deathfigures from models vary quite extremely.

Conservative estimations of the entire death toll in the US currently range in the region of just 200.000 while 'we do nothing' leads to about 6mio dead. Imperial College London model with 2 mio dead is not taken too seriously currently by Gates.

What makes sense regardless is to have widespread testing capability, before you can decide if you go out of a quarantine phase.


----------



## notimp (Mar 28, 2020)

Bodylanguage at 36:15 on prefabbed question of "how important is it for the worlds nations to collaborate right now" is FREAKY. Count me in with the conspiracy folks for a rough hour or so - but ok, on the left you see almost religious devotion, and on the right in Bills Face genuine happyness - almost giddiness, masked within a second?! *uh, let me take a sip*

What?

































*sip*





Guys? Everything else ok?


----------



## notimp (Mar 28, 2020)

Analogue to Climate change is opened up at 48 min into the video. (As of course it is, this is TED.)

Answer at least is differentiated. But then there is an edit point rather soon after.

edit: Short recap to follow.

Gates view on the situation in the US is as follows.

Measures should be able to contain the virus to only 1% of population being infected, at least if propagation slows down in the northern hemisphere due to warmer weather in summer. For a second wave in winter - Gates remains optimistic, that several treatment options are found for an effective combined treatment (different stages of infection), as vaccine development should still take about an additional year, resulting in the medical system in the US not getting overextended broadly (mostly big cities), and therefore mortality rates overall still falling below 1% in the US.

The entire thing will be over within 2-3 years (as more than half of the population gets infected).

Basically he is very optimistic on the capability to contain spread going out of curfews (because of low infaction rates when people arent showing symptoms(!)), if widespread testing is available to judge the correct timing. Very positive on the capability to find remedies quite soon, that would alleviate needs for respirator use, soon. And as a result very positive on expected outcome.

Southern hemisphere doesnt get a 'seasonal break', but has fewer elderly people demographics wise. *cringe*

So in his minds model US sticks at below 1% infection rate over the summer - after which other treatment options become available.

edit:

Yeah, Gates banks on a fact, that isnt a fact yet.


> Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from asymptomatic individuals (or individuals within the incubation period) has also been described [23-27]. However, the extent to which this occurs remains unknown. Large-scale serologic screening may be able to provide a better sense of the scope of asymptomatic infections and inform epidemiologic analysis; several serologic tests for SARS-CoV-2 are under development [28].


https://www.uptodate.com/contents/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19?source=history_widget


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## notimp (Mar 28, 2020)

Ok, this is kind of important...!



> Chinese researchers had previously suggested asymptomatic people might transmit the virus but had not presented clear-cut evidence. “There’s no doubt after reading [the NEJM] paper that asymptomatic transmission is occurring,” Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told journalists. “This study lays the question to rest.”
> 
> But now, it turns out that information was wrong. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the German government’s public health agency, has written a letter to NEJM to set the record straight, even though it was not involved in the paper.






> The letter in _NEJM_ described a cluster of infections that began after a businesswoman from Shanghai visited a company near Munich on 20 and 21 January, where she had a meeting with the first of four people who later fell ill. Crucially, she wasn’t sick at the time: “During her stay, she had been well with no sign or symptoms of infection but had become ill on her flight back to China,” the authors wrote. “The fact that asymptomatic persons are potential sources of 2019-nCoV infection may warrant a reassessment of transmission dynamics of the current outbreak.”
> 
> But the researchers didn’t actually speak to the woman before they published the paper. The last author, Michael Hoelscher of the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich Medical Center, says the paper relied on information from the four other patients: “They told us that the patient from China did not appear to have any symptoms.” Afterward, however, RKI and the Health and Food Safety Authority of the state of Bavaria did talk to the Shanghai patient on the phone, and it turned out she did have symptoms while in Germany. According to people familiar with the call, she felt tired, suffered from muscle pain, and took paracetamol, a fever-lowering medication. (An RKI spokesperson would only confirm to Science that the woman had symptoms.)


src: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomatic-patient-transmitting-coronavirus-wrong

This, if true, is a deal breaker.

Makes telling people to self isolate much more viable.

Messaging in my local newspapers is still entirely different. As in not corrected.


> Hoelscher was not on the call, he says. “I asked the Bavarian Health and Food Safety Authority whether the information from that phone conversation called for a correction and I was told that is not the case,” he says. (The Bavarian ministry of health, of which the agency is part, has not responded to a request for information from ScienceInsider.) But RKI disagreed. The agency’s spokesperson confirms that a letter about the error has been submitted to NEJM. RKI also informed the World Health Organization (WHO) and European partner agencies about the new information.
> 
> “I feel bad about how this went, but I don’t think anybody is at fault here,” says virologist Christian Drosten of the Charité University Hospital in Berlin, who did the lab work for the study and is one of its authors. “Apparently the woman could not be reached at first and people felt this had to be communicated quickly.”





> The Public Health Agency of Sweden reacted less charitably. “The sources that claimed that the coronavirus would infect during the incubation period lack scientific support for this analysis in their articles,” says a document with frequently asked questions the agency posted on its website yesterday. “This applies, among other things, to an article in [NEJM] that has subsequently proven to contain major flaws and errors.” Even if the patient’s symptoms were unspecific, it wasn’t an asymptomatic infection, says Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Toronto. “Asymptomatic means no symptoms, zero. It means you feel fine. We have to be careful with our words.”
> 
> Hoelscher agrees that the paper should have been clearer about the origin of the information about the woman’s health. “If I was writing this today, I would phrase that differently,” he says. The need to share information as fast as possible, along with NEJM’s push to publish early, created a lot of pressure, he says.





> The fact that the paper got it wrong doesn’t mean transmission from asymptomatic people doesn’t occur.  Fauci, for one, still believes it does. "This evening I telephoned one of my colleagues in China who is a highly respected infectious diseases scientist and health official," he says. "He said that he is convinced that there is asymptomatic infection and that some asymptomatic people are transmitting infection." But even if they do, asymptomatic transmission likely plays a minor role in the epidemic overall, WHO says. People who cough or sneeze are more likely to spread the virus, the agency wrote in a situation report on Saturday. “More data may come out soon. We will just have to wait,” Lipsitch says.




edit: ECDC still disagrees on march 12th and states that fast pre-symptomatic spread was also inferred through modelling.


> Transmission in pre-symptomatic stage of infection: In addition to case reports, pre-symptomatic transmission has been inferred through modelling, and the proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission was estimated to be around 48% and 62% [41]. Pre-symptomatic transmission was deemed likely based on a shorter serial interval of COVID-19 (4.0 to 4.6 days) than the mean incubation period (five days) with the authors indicating that many secondary transmissions would have already occurred at the time when symptomatic cases are detected and isolated [42]. Major uncertainties remain in assessing the influence of pre-symptomatic transmission on the overall transmission dynamics of the pandemic.


src: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/de...f-novel-coronavirus-disease-2019-COVID-19.pdf

Original source:
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30119-3/fulltext


> In conclusion, we have estimated the median serial interval of COVID-19 at 4.0 days, which is close to or shorter than the disease’s median incubation period indicating that rapid cycles of transmission and substantial pre-symptomatic transmissions are occurring. Thus, containment via case isolation alone is likely to be very challenging.




Bill Gates might be out of his depth here..  edit: Or its political.


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## matias3ds (Mar 28, 2020)

Here Air tv channels bomb with news 24/7 its the only they talked in tv .


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## notimp (Mar 28, 2020)

Then dont watch TV.


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## notimp (Mar 31, 2020)

Slowdown in transmission of COVID19 in summer only with an average temperature of above 25°C or maybe above 10g/m3 of humidity. (Not in the US, not in Europe.)

So effects would only show because of 'less people working indoors' but apparently are not significant (if not combined with other (social distancing) measures).

src:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3556998
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022467v1


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## notimp (Apr 1, 2020)

US prison population is now payed to dig mass graves (with protection equipment).
src: h**ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVxkIOLhTf4

I think we should take the time to reflect the thread title at moments like these.
-

Death figure of 100-240.000 for the entirety of the US is the prediction for 'if all social distancing measures are employed long term'.

Death figure of 2.2 million (Imperial College London models) is "if no significant action is taken" (apparently ?, because thats news to me - 0.8% deathrate on US population is still 2.6 million... Just saying.).

Just for reference.


edit: In the video above a 'viral video' is referenced ("one nurse in madrid") in context of 'they are not testing [dead] people'. To put that somewhat into perspective - all deaths in hospital wards that have switched to attending to Covid patients structurally (as in overwhelmingly) currently are statistically counted as 'died of Covid19', in some regions of the world (I know of cases in italy and germany). So testing is not necessary there - for cases to show up in death numbers.
Just know that before going for the conspiracy angle..


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## notimp (Apr 3, 2020)

> Populations might have to endure lockdowns or stay-at-home orders of more than six weeks before the coronavirus pandemic can be brought under control in their area, researchers in the United States have said.
> 
> According to the study published this week on _SSRN_, an open-source journal for early-stage research, countries adopting aggressive interventions might see moderation of an outbreak after almost three weeks, control of the spread after one month, and containment after 45 days.
> 
> ...



src: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...st-six-weeks-bring-coronavirus-pandemic-under

edit: Better writeup:
https://www.universityofcalifornia....wns-need-last-more-six-weeks-contain-covid-19


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## subcon959 (Apr 3, 2020)

Speaking of conspiracy angle, why the f is the '5g is the real cause' nonsense appear to be gaining so much traction? Are people really that dumb when they have nothing better to do.


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## Veho (Apr 3, 2020)

subcon959 said:


> Speaking of conspiracy angle, why the f is the '5g is the real cause' nonsense appear to be gaining so much traction? Are people really that dumb when they have nothing better to do.


In a word: Yes.


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## ChibiMofo (Apr 6, 2020)

Boesy said:


> In some countries, the situation has become really bad as the virus is technologically advanced...



What med school did you drop out of?

And I'll bet you regret your idiotic title now. And not just because blaming "the media" (as if it is one thing with one agenda) is lazy and ignorant. The sort of thing FauxNews viewers do (apparently blissfully unaware that FauxNews IS their media).


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## notimp (Apr 6, 2020)

Case fatality rate per age-group (in Italy and China):






src: https://www.vox.com/2020/4/1/21203198/coronavirus-deaths-us-italy-china-south-korea

Case fatality rate of a normal flu is 0.1% btw.


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## th3joker (Apr 6, 2020)

This is a false flag yall though the patriot act was some bullshit just wait


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## Xzi (Apr 6, 2020)

th3joker said:


> This is a false flag yall though the patriot act was some bullshit just wait


There are already mass graves in certain countries which can be seen from space.  It's not a false flag, but that doesn't mean authoritarians won't use the cover of a pandemic to consolidate power and/or profit from death.  This includes the US, where a bill called "EARN IT" is currently making its way through congress.  I recommend researching it yourself, but the gist of its purpose is to eliminate all end-to-end encryption on the internet, leaving everyone's info exposed to governments and hackers worldwide.


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## notimp (Apr 6, 2020)

I just averaged the percentage rates above (add them up devide by two  ) and then plotted a graph.






Sure pays to be young..


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## BORTZ (Apr 6, 2020)

subcon959 said:


> Speaking of conspiracy angle, why the f is the '5g is the real cause' nonsense appear to be gaining so much traction? Are people really that dumb when they have nothing better to do.


I would be much more willing to believe its a prematurely escaped bio-weapon from Wuhan rather than bat soup. All of that for sure over "5G" towers.


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## notimp (Apr 6, 2020)

Same. 

But only for bat soup in specific.  (As in cooked.  )

Here is the disclaimer for 'why bats'. You basically can see it in the virus RNA, where it originated from. Viruses mutate, and if certain mutations made it more 'adaptive' to a certain genome over generations (of mutations), or organism apparently it is visible in the virus' RNA.

Why bats advanced part. They have high 'anti inflammatory' something (forgot  ), which make their immune systems highly effective - as far as them not dying from virus infections. Which means they can host all sorts of viruses and transmit them longterm - without them dying.

Why bats economic part. As human populations grow they depend on a variety of food sources to sustain populations. Bush meat (bats 'n stuff) is one of them. Sure - also depends on taste, but if you've nothing else you can afford... You'll eat that as well.


So 'it jumped (mutated into transmittable to humans) from a bat' is not that far of a stretch. With Sars it jumped from cats and ferrets ( https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3323218/ ). You have to remember that 60% of the genome between a human and a fruit fly are actually the same ( https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2004/03feb_fruitfly ). There is another important part to this and that is - transmitable from a carrier animal to humans, is not the same as transmittable from human to human. If it needs an animal as a carrier - spread is much less problematic - as with other Sars viruses in the past. So this one originated from an animal - but then also was human to human transmittable - which was tough luck.

In an odd turn of events, making it originate from bats - first is not unlikely and second even acts as a counter to "manufactured in a lab" - because it would be very hard to get the 'false flag, evolved in bats mostly' stuff into the viruses RNA. (Not sure if you theoretically could.  )

Lastly, and this is an odd thing about how our logic systems work. Past Sars infection paths originated in cats. Oddly - just by feel, people should find it more palpable that it would, just because they can imagine themselves interacting with cats. So whoever would think of designing the virus on purpose - would have had a free pick of original host animal - and decided to pick bat - in our theoretical example (Is it you Batman!?). So the logic path 'bat seems unlikely > therefore it had to be designed' doesnt work. Its failed procedural logic.

Yet it feels so - intuitively correct..  (Because its hard for us to imagine interactions with bats.)


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## subcon959 (Apr 6, 2020)

I just heard David Icke say that they are using 5G to suck oxygen out of old peoples houses to say they died of coronavirus..


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## notimp (Apr 6, 2020)

Hey, that Icke guy's still at it, ey.  Reptilians in our government was a boon. 

edit: Just heard on Democracy Now, that black people are reportedly twice as likely to die from Covid 19 in the US than white folks....  (The virus (likely) doesnt discriminate... (Social conditions do ('projects'). )

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------

Japan is about to declare a national emergency. (Highest death rate since the begining of the crisis.) Their testing so far wasnt extensive. So whatever they did (not so strict social distancing.) - alone, didnt help.


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## subcon959 (Apr 6, 2020)

Huh.. why even mention black then if there is no genetic link?


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## Veho (Apr 6, 2020)

subcon959 said:


> Huh.. why even mention black then if there is no genetic link?



Black Americans are prone to hypertension and heart problems: 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4108512/

Possible genetic component. 

COVID-19 mortality is higher for people with heart conditions and hypertension: 

https://www.webmd.com/lung/coronavirus-high-blood-pressure#1
https://www.businessinsider.com/cor...isting-conditions-heart-disease-cancer-2020-2







So black Americans have a higher percentage of hypertension, patients with hypertension have a higher risk of dying from COVID-9, meaning they are at a higher risk.


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## notimp (Apr 6, 2020)

subcon959 said:


> Huh.. why even mention black then if there is no genetic link?


To document, that there still is a societal issue. Because Covid 19 doesnt discriminate (presumably), its a good measure of 'inequality' thats - still - in the system.

So in short, because its 'quite interesting'.


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## emigre (Apr 6, 2020)

BoJo is in intensive care now. I think the guy is a dishonest cunt but I wouldn't wish this on him. Hopefully he recovers.


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## notimp (Apr 6, 2020)

Ok, massive new info dump from Karl Lauterbach (health political spokesperson of the german SPD (party on the center left)).

Current strategy is not just mitigation but suppression. Mitigation would be possible if we could bank on a vaccine / very viable treatment option within this year - we probably cant - vaccine development and production will take 18+ months, and thats already a very ambitious goal.

Target of suppression is to keep infection rate in the overall population - sustained (so for a long time) - well below 10%. In germany with case numbers of about 100 new infections every day - and thats sustained (you need social control meassures (distancing, chirurgical style masks, ..) to keep that sustained - and not breaking out into exponentiality again), you would then do individual follow ups. So isolate the people, talk to them, ask them which people they were in contact with and insist on them self isolating as well.

If you cant reach that low number for new infections (about 100 a day in germany), with sustained low growth rates, you cant do individual follow ups, which means much higher risks of new infection herds (groups of people) being undetected, and a far higher risk, of the epidemic breaking out large scale in fall once more.

If you dont manage to curb rate of new infections to that point, you are talking about massive societal fallout.

Two important points - by fall you will have overworked your clinic personal to a point where they basically clink out - and -

it isnt only death rate. Of the people with serious (as in heavy) progression of the illness - death figures arent the only important aspect to look at. Even with survivors you are talking about scar tissue in the lungs, reduced lung functions, higher risk of dementia, lower life expectancy - and much increased longterm costs.

edit: The factor here is about 5x that of every person dying from Covid 19.

About populations under risk.

In germany - if you go through all risk factors, about a third of the population is 'at risk'. Thats too many to isolate them as a group.

In the US up to 60% of your population.

(Thats people who smoked, are in treatment for high bloodbreassure and are over 60, people with asthma, preexisting conditions, and so on and so forth.)
-

He is in contact with health experts at Harvard, and they tell him, that the epidemic in the US is entirely uncontrolled at this point even in rural regions. Which means, high risk of it coming back stronger in the fall.
-

His comment on Sweden is, that they can maintain the current strategy of limited social isolation mostly because of population density (not very dense - especially in the north), and that they have low case numbers in cities as well - for now. Once their situation changes, they will/would change measures as well.

So short summery. Its dire. 

src: h**ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-73gTjn-TVM (german)

A strategy of supression is what sourth korea operated on, btw.
And for the US, at this point thats already outside of the realm of possibility. (So all thats left is curbing the curve so it moves below health system capacity.)


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## SonowRaevius (Apr 6, 2020)

All I can say is I am happy that people in my state aren't hoarding as bad as other and actually taking the virus seriously. 

We've only got about 500 cases and only 10 deaths. 

I genuinely feel for all those that have either lost a loved one or their jobs to this and I hope like hell things improve quickly.


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## notimp (Apr 7, 2020)

SonowRaevius said:


> We've only got about 500 cases and only 10 deaths.


You need testing capability of several tens of thousand tests a day just for medical personal and people with more serious progressions of the virus. People in the medical sector have to be tested repeatedly and have to be put in shortlists for that.

From a political perspective case rates can be extrapolated from death rates, so people with more serious progressions also are on shortlists to be tested first.
(You basically can ignore infected numbers by now - tests were not statistically normally distributed.)

Even the antibody tests you want to get set up to see actual case rate will not show you that 30% of people already have had it and are now fine, but are needed for better projections.

According to Karl Lauterbach.

What I'm saying is the following. Test numbers are heavily scewed right now by availability. Death numbers are the ones (in terms of absolute numbers) to go by (extrapolate from there). If you want to aim for a supression strategy (south korea), you need testing availability thats manyfold of what many countries currently have.

Meaning - higher total fatality rate than south korea.

100.000-240.000 deaths, which is the current official projection in the US only make sense in any capacity, if spread can be limited to a small subset of populations for at least 18 months (until mass availability of vaccines).

Even if you take the 240.000 number, say its the result from a death rate of 1%, that means that 24 million people would be infected, which would only be 7% of US population. So that would still be in line with a suppression strategy. But - from what I've heard yesterday, the US is well past that being viable - which means, reported projected death numbers are wrong. Imperial college London projected deathrate for the US is 2 million, which - extrapolating with a 1% death rate would mean 60% of the US being infected before the virus can be stopped.

Thats closer to reality. If I'm not missing anything of a magnitude of actual deathrate would be 0.1% (normal flu levels), which is unlikely.
--

People hoarding stuff is not a real problem (if they arent hoarding medical equipment), because for daily need items (food 'n stuff) you dont have a supply side problem. So people can only buy that much - storage was full during the store runs, its just that people couldnt put stuff onto the shelves fast enough. With the exception of maybe hand sanitizers - which arent crucial (soap works as well). So thats mostly a perception issue (people talking about what the crisis means to them).

edit: Here is a source for Imperial College London models:
https://www.theatlantic.com/technol...avirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/


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## notimp (Apr 7, 2020)

Ah, I think I've got my logic error.

Death rate of of normal flu should be 0.1% of people showing symptoms. Which with herd immunity built up would not be close to actual population numbers.

That would account for a factor of 10 or 20x 

Meaning, if you can curb the curve - 100.000-240.000 deaths still sound like a possibility.  Maybe. (Exponential stuff = wrecks me brains in)

edit:

What still gets me is a projected fatality rate of 100.000 - because still in the ballpark of a bad flu year for the US:
(Take this number and multiply by edit: 1.5 (because it projects only half a year))
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

Forbes to the rescue:
(read this)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshua...eaths-hinges-on-key-assumptions/#4fd291b8144e

There we go, this makes more sense:


> Imperial College London published a model which indicated that if nothing was done to mitigate the spread of the novel coronavirus - and the contagion is allowed to move unimpeded through the population - this would lead to 81% of the U.S. population, about 264 million people, contracting the virus. And, the model estimated that 2.2 million would die. The Imperial College London model suggested that three months of social distancing measures - including household quarantines, school and university closures, and the isolation and contact tracing of infected patients - could reduce numbers of U.S. deaths by 50%.


So 1.1 million deaths then.  In an optimal scenario. 

There you have it - this is what the US is heading for. 

Example calculations:
70% (where pandemic stops naturally) of entire US population is 228 mio

0.04% of that is 100.000
0.1% of that is 240.000
0.5% is 1.1 million
and
1% are 2.2 million

Also 100.000 dead is a (a bit higher than) normal flu years worth of deaths for the US, so make of that information what you will.


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## subcon959 (Apr 7, 2020)

Or.. they can just turn 5g off to halt the deaths whenever they want.

Seriously though, why isnt there an easy way to 'sanitise' your youtube feed after you watch a couple of dumb conspiracy videos?


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## FAST6191 (Apr 7, 2020)

subcon959 said:


> Or.. they can just turn 5g off to halt the deaths whenever they want.
> 
> Seriously though, why isnt there an easy way to 'sanitise' your youtube feed after you watch a couple of dumb conspiracy videos?


You have been doing this internet lark long enough to know never to load random links in anything other than porn mode.

That or go on bitchute instead. You get some good ones there if you go looking.


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## Kurt91 (Apr 7, 2020)

It does take a while, but I've had some luck with clicking "Not Interested" on the videos in the feed. I have a little brother who watches the most annoying crap, and he doesn't pay attention to whose profile is active on whatever he's using. I occasionally have to take two or three days to scrub out all of the screaming "Let's Players" (I don't consider it a Let's Play if the whole video is just shrieking and cutting away from the actual game. I want to see the game, and the person's experience with said game. That's why I'll watch something like BrainScratchComms over Game Grumps any day, let alone the crap my brother picks out.)


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## notimp (Apr 8, 2020)

I've my environment set up so that I'm never logged into youtube at all. I can push stuff to youtube leanback on android (uses a unique id - that you can delete in the apps settings folder to clean slate), and to Kodi (doesnt have that problem at all) and on the browser a clean slate is always just a cookie clear away.

For stuff I 'subscribe' to, I use a Kodi plugin that can browse channels you've added, and thats it.

I have to say though, I feel you - the amount of Steve Bannon and Jordan Peterson videos I had to skip by, just because I screened some of the videos posted in here and threw them at the youtube app on android, because I was too lazy to reset its unique ID was really, really bothersome.

Also the youtube app insists that I have split personality currently and wants me to be informed about the latest releases of FOX news and Democracy Now at the same time - because I watched a Trump debate on Fox once.

And after a reset, even just watching some none descript video game videos, and then anything political - seemingly throws you into the alt right recommendation deepend.

I've reproduced this twice after an ID reset, the bias is seemingly real.

Also - you watched videos on hacking cheap retro consoles - you must be interested in Junkyard fixer upper projects... (actually I liked some of those videos , but - come on...) oh, and budget smartphones!


----------



## Pleng (Apr 8, 2020)

Kurt91 said:


> It does take a while, but I've had some luck with clicking "Not Interested" on the videos in the feed



Lucky you. I've had zero luck with that. YouTube always goes through phases of offering me videos in the language of whatever country I'm in but no matter how many times I click "not interested" or "don't recommend this channel" it doesn't stop. When YouTube gets in that mood there's nothing to do other than leave her alone, do something else, and hope she's calmed down by tomorrow (or actually search for something specific, I guess).

Then there's the times when my feed is full of videos I watched before. I used to go through the process of "Not interested. Tell us why. I've already seen this" thinking that YouTube would eventually stop recommending videos I've already seen. But, nope, they just took the novel approach of removing the "watched" status from a bunch of videos so they could re-recommend them...


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## FAST6191 (Apr 8, 2020)

Never had a youtube account, set mine to somewhere else to dodge European censorship (seriously they decided plain old alternate history was too much and stopped them from being visible, but not enough to need me to fire up the VPN).
At this point I am back to just using bookmarks all the time (never really stopped but for a hot moment the suggestions were not bad), looking at crossovers/collaborations, and using bitchute for some others.


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## Pipistrele (Apr 8, 2020)

Just returning into the thread a couple weeks later to point out that I called it


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## Pleng (Apr 8, 2020)

FAST6191 said:


> Never had a youtube account, set mine to somewhere else to dodge European censorship



How did you set your account to somewhere else if you never had one?


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## FAST6191 (Apr 8, 2020)

Pleng said:


> How did you set your account to somewhere else if you never had one?


Probably not so great phrasing there but you can set things.
Three dots on the top right and then location. There are probably some others as well, if not options to do it via cookie editing.


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## notimp (Apr 8, 2020)

TED is explaining concepts again:
h**ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4xu7w6Vf0U

Here is a short writeup.

More info on contact tracing.

Contact tracing in principal is a way to massively reduce need for universal testing - basically everyone - every two (or so) days, by making it 'smart'.

Which is needed, because testing everyone every two (or so) days is a magnitude over what will be available in testing capacity.

So the idea is, once someone is tested because of symptoms, or harsh progression, you can follow up on them, and then have people they were in direct contact with also test (or self quarantine on the spot.  ).

If you are at a low enough daily growth rate, and following up on individual cases is possible, what you are planning to do is massively increasing testing capability - doing those "smart ("one degree of Kevin Bacon") tests", and thereby being able to get by with individual quarantines. Instead of nation or region wide ones.

There also is a statistics angle to it that makes it interesting to look at spread rates and so forth - which favors the app approach.

Currently voluntary or not is still discussed, states usually would like to force it on people, because economic fallout (need for bigger quarantines) can be reduced, but at the same time - they get told, that acceptance might be higher if they don't. 

Also you dont have to do it via an app, you could also do it via patient interviews - but it would be less thorough (earlier growth rate increases would be expected).

The idea is, that you combine it with a massively increased testing capability (for which you need different tests that the earlier ones) - so as a result you can now quarantine infected people individually - instead of entire populations.

Also - what you do aside from that are randomized tests on representative populations, so you can keep track of growth rate in the general population. If growthrate starts to get close to 'doubling every three days' again - you have to do national or regional quarantines again.
--

Target is either to hit the 12-18 months mark doing that (when a vaccine becomes available to the public at large (not just risk groups)), or until you hit 60%-70% of you populations having been infected (herd immunity).

For reference, in italy infection rate in the general public is (only) at about 15% currently. So you'd have to repeat what happened there four times until you reach goal. Obviously you cant - in the same timeframe of a couple of months (repeat the same crisis there four more times) - so you try to stretch it out.

Interestingly they are talking about testing people who you have contact traced for a tracing duration of two weeks to every infected person, while the 'app' promoted to do that in Austria would only do that for a period of three days. Thats still a pretty stark variability between approaches.. 
--

There seem to be some estimates on deaths being underreported in italy floating arround that talk about probably twice the number of deaths than reported. If we take that number and the 15% infection rate estimated, we end up with a case fatality rate of 0.4% - which would mean roughly a million people dying in the US (if your progresion is similarly as in itally and it only stops 'naturally' at 70% of the population infected). All of that is ballpark math.


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## notimp (Apr 9, 2020)

What does a 'free market solution' to the corona crisis look like?

US ordered 10.000 ventilators from Philips (european company (Netherlands)) for 3280 dollars a piece. Philips didn't deliver them. (Thank you for your interest, you'll get the product, when its back in stock.)

Then US ordered 43.000 ventilators from Philips for 15.000 USD a piece.

(What, you dont want to fasttrack our orders? How about we sh*t money all over you? (650mio USD btw.))

That is the free market solution to the corona crisis in the US.
src: https://www.propublica.org/article/...charging-quadruple-the-price-for-the-new-ones

Hope you now understand, why even republican governors are saying, that this is not the right thing to do, and that the president should force companies to produce medical goods in times like these - for ... less markup, in country.

edit: In the same vane:
The US is also very good at stealing masks at airports:
https://www.thelocal.de/20200403/ge...ooped-on-masks-at-bangkok-airport-coronavirus

And of course at buying up european biotech companies (CuraVec), so they don't have to try themselves (edit they do try themselves, this is me being facetious):
Google translate this: https://www.mimikama.at/allgemein/dementi-curevac-hat-kein-angebot-von-der-us-regierung-erhalten/


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## FAST6191 (Apr 9, 2020)

I would like to understand more of the picture there.

Rates of production are often rate limited or have bottlenecks -- the strong as the weakest link tends to be rephrased as fast as your slowest process. Good design can mitigate that but that tends to just shift it to a new place. Quite often you get business types think can we just throw more money at it but if it means spinning up new gear (usually millions to commission and install) it cuts into your margins (a word they understand), dropping quality (hard to do for life or death medical gear -- even ignoring tolerances then medical testing seriously is a nightmare compared to normal consumer stuff*), or retasking other production (contract bonuses, interrupting other cash flows, other concepts that are well understood, not to mention does not always happen for free either) and things stop there. Here it would be is private enterprise obligated to bankrupt or seriously trouble themselves?
On rare occasion though you get "I don't fucking care, get it done, here is my lackey** with the big boy credit card who will be your shadow". I like those jobs.

It might also be that they genuinely joined the back of the line but that was just a piss off price to bump them to the front. Or it could be a variation on the old tradesman's notion of "never refuse a job you don't want, just price it high enough that if you have do it then it is enough to keep you happy".

It could however be good old fashioned price gouging, which is apparently against some kind of law (even in the US).

*average consumer device might have panel testing and maybe bed of nails, and then batch sample maybe random 3 in a 100. Medical is usually every one fairly extensively; last one I saw in a factory had a medical device power supply/controller that had to be properly tested at every orientation rather than just quick and easy when sat normally on a bench for the consumer device the row over.

**sometimes them. One particularly amusing time, albeit in a repair scenario, saw big boss man buying the customers in front of them in a line out to get a part quicker but story for a different day.


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## notimp (Apr 9, 2020)

As it is a european company, I doubt that this is to get more incentives for better production-flows in place - and I would presume, that this is mostly getting bumped up in delivery schedules - money.

But the point is valid. I dont know. Production chains are international at this point and maybe some key components production can only be ramped up by some companies - you'd now want to give 5x the funding to via paid price increases.

I presume though, that this really is just supply/demand at work - since there is a shortage of ventilators in the first place - if the money then is reinvested to produce more (or if thats indeed possible at all) - the management of that (european) company decides (paid is paid).


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## Captain_N (Apr 9, 2020)

As soon as this virus was known, the ventilators should have been mass produced. They should have started in December. Its not like any of those machines will go to waste if there was no pandemic. They would have been used eventually.


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## notimp (Apr 9, 2020)

January, (edit: actually february  ) maybe. (Even the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) failed to see this as a pandemic, which makes for the best conspiracy theories.  )

And following that you have supply chain issues (if factories all over the world get shut down), pretty quickly. German car manufacturers have all but stopped making cars - because they could not get components. (BMW lasted longest afair, because their storage warehouses were the biggest.  ) Which also means that all showrooms are closed, and most dealers workshops, not just because of nationwide curfews, but out of necessity.

And everyone who can is producing ventilators right now anyhow - because of the markup and because it sells currently (while many other goods that arent essential dont). But what a markup..


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## FAST6191 (Apr 9, 2020)

notimp said:


> As it is a european company, I doubt that this is to get more incentives for better production-flows in place - and I would presume, that this is mostly getting bumped up in delivery schedules - money.
> 
> But the point is valid. I dont know. Production chains are international at this point and maybe some key components production can only be ramped up by some companies - you'd now want to give 5x the funding to via paid price increases.
> 
> I presume though, that this really is just supply/demand at work - since there is a shortage of ventilators in the first place - if the money then is reinvested to produce more (or if thats indeed possible at all) - the management of that (european) company decides (paid is paid).



I really can't be bothered to look up the company structure right now but I can't imagine they lack a US subsidiary that turns a reasonable profit that the US can't in turn put the screws to, or otherwise make their importing life harder (sir you have been selected for random additional screening and all that).



Captain_N said:


> As soon as this virus was known, the ventilators should have been mass produced. They should have started in December. Its not like any of those machines will go to waste if there was no pandemic. They would have been used eventually.


What you pay out of one pot is not there for something else, and it is not like pots (be they governmental nor private) are particularly large such that you can spunk away money.

Equally while shortages in general are known (usually in flu seasons or major accidents) they are not usually so hard to come by do have perishable and replaceable parts (see the various stories of people making things on 3d printers), and would invest you in a supply chain/future support contracts and the like. If you reckon there should be some government design and tooling design (everybody almost always forgets tooling in these discussions, and that is just as much of a problem as the item itself) they can trot out that is a different discussion entirely. I am all for preparedness and it is not like we don't know the perils of just in time and highly localised but still worldwide supply chains (for around here see any number of "flood so [ram/hard drive/screen] will be costly and hard to come by this year" over the last... decades that I have been following IT supply) but again different discussion.

Likewise December? I will give that some forward thinking country might have done it as soon as it became apparent that China had fluffed containment and their health intelligence people had a reasonable idea of rates of infection and symptoms (though again reliable data is a harder one there -- Italy being where hard numbers mostly appeared from). December would have been really early to pick up on that though.


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## notimp (Apr 9, 2020)

FAST6191 said:


> I really can't be bothered to look up the company structure right now but I can't imagine they lack a US subsidiary that turns a reasonable profit that the US can't in turn put the screws to, or otherwise make their importing life harder (sir you have been selected for random additional screening and all that).


Yes, but that would be an international trade dispute.  In fact even that they now pay 5x (or a little less) of list, could be seen as an afront. 

Stuffs not that easy.  If you want to increase production, you would start with mainly US affiliated companies first, no?  But all of this is speculation. 

Germany shielded that one biotech company by giving it access to 80mio in grants, btw.  Then their board structure changed twice within a week or so, an then the company said - there were never any buyout offers from the US, we promise. Not ones that would have lead to exclusivity deals, and none that were directly related to Trump and team (White House).


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## FAST6191 (Apr 9, 2020)

notimp said:


> Yes, but that would be an international trade dispute.  In fact even that they now pay 5x (or a little less) of list, could be seen as an afront.
> 
> Stuffs not that easy.  If you want to increase production, you would start with mainly US affiliated companies first, no?  But all of this is speculation.
> 
> Germany shielded that one biotech company by giving it access to 80mio in funds, btw.



If they out and out said it like that then there might be a dispute. Things can get awfully subtle though.


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## notimp (Apr 13, 2020)

Statistical variance on the mortality of Covid 19 differs by 80x for as long as statistically representative testing is not available (should become available once antibody tests are reliable and available).

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

Thats the difference between death rates of 0.04% and 3% in entire populations.

So - wait and see.


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## notimp (Apr 14, 2020)

w00t?

State Department cables warned of safety issues at Wuhan lab studying bat coronaviruses
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/



> The cables warned about safety and management weaknesses at the WIV lab and proposed more attention and help. The first cable, which I obtained, also warns that the lab’s work on bat coronaviruses and their potential human transmission represented a risk of a new SARS-like pandemic.
> 
> “During interactions with scientists at the WIV laboratory, they noted the new lab has a serious shortage of appropriately trained technicians and investigators needed to safely operate this high-containment laboratory,” states the Jan. 19, 2018, cable, which was drafted by two officials from the embassy’s environment, science and health sections who met with the WIV scientists. (The State Department declined to comment on this and other details of the story.)



Now thats some good s--stuff. 

Remember correlation is not causation, next tradewar is immanent, etc, etc.


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## notimp (Apr 15, 2020)

New tool to play with:
https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility

How much better is your country compared to your neighboring countries in terms of adhering to quarantine measures?

Also works with cities. 

Also - thats an optimal value, because we all know iPhone users are the better people. 

edit: Wow, New Yorkers are hardcore!


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## notimp (Apr 15, 2020)

Oxfam predicts 14 mio deaths worldwide.
src: h**ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdlnyvM8N8g


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## Subtle Demise (Apr 17, 2020)

Governor of Michigan closed all the schools last month. Ok good, you're well within your rights to do that lady, thanks fro trying to help us! You're not as bad as people say! Oh, now you want to close all Secretary of State (our equivalent of the DMV)? Ok, well I hope the cops stop ticketing for expired plates and licenses then. I guess that closure makes sense, but what are you doing about all the idiots crowding the grocery stores and panic buying everything? Oh, now you're deeming certain businesses as "non-essential" so people rush to the stores even more and panic buy and create even more artificial shortages? So, are you going to do something about that? Oh, you are? Wait...wouldn't forcing stores to close entire departments and institute one-way aisles actually bring people closer together? Yeah...I'm out, sorry. I can't believe I'm saying this, but I stand with the Lansing protest people now, despite the majority of them being Trump cultists.


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## WarioWaffles (Apr 18, 2020)

I'm not sure every state should be as extreme as NY but this virus overwhelms the healthcare system at incredible speeds and, irony of ironies, some hospitals are shutting down because they don't have enough patients. If the supply chain burns down we won't have any healthcare and if we do nothing the hospitals will be overwhelmed with covid patients.


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## subcon959 (Apr 19, 2020)

How exactly do we introduce an exit strategy after numbers sufficiently decline without an almost inevitable relapse once immigration ramps up?


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## FAST6191 (Apr 19, 2020)

Personally I am shocked we have not seen any "OMG the terrorists might get hold of it*" stories yet.

*so for the age range in question of the average cell a tiny death chance, not that many care so much normally if doing the flying mince tactic, fiddling with fertiliser or expected ending to stabby time/truck of peace. Even if you are too dumb (after all you tend not to be one if you are smart) to pick up a high school biology book to do impure containment you can stretch incubate it in your cell well enough for a while. Most containment levels are estimated to be about 500 cases (bit less if you are China or South Korea with serious tech/surveillance, more if you lack skills or willingness to use them) so if "stay in your home citizen" ends in "mission success" you send yours to the four corners before retreating so as not to be immediately seen as patient zero for round 2 (assuming no holding back because being accused of being racist is the worst thing in the world). As people have already been primed to be afraid and likely won't reach banal and boring for a few months (might even take the full 18 for the vaccine if you are lucky, assuming it is managed in that timeframe) you get yourself a nice effective thing. There are a few more things you could do to augment it from the more traditional approaches (resources stretched thin, but could be thinner) but let's not get too high up on the watchlist.

Version 2. If we do a follow the money thing (be it nation state, international pharma or local actor) and assume an amoral type there.


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## notimp (Apr 20, 2020)

The moment you realize that your (young) head of states english is still worse than yours, even though you were lazy in school.. 

All joking aside, we had several postings in here highlighting the austrian situation and way out of the crisis (mostly in a different thread). CNN is now interviewing the chancellor of that country to get a glimpse into how other countries are reopening their societies (and economy) after a curfew.

Could be more informative, if our chancellors english were better, but still... 



Further explanation of their talking points.

There will most likely not be an insurance given, that staff in a restaurant has been tested, this would explode costs for almost no reason. Mitigation works, by first having your daily new infection rate as low as possible (through curfews (= containment)), which austria managed, to then be able to follow up on each of those cases individually. You can do that starting with people that actually get to your hospitals, get tested and turn out positive - with follow ups on their interactions in the past two weeks. (You basically ask them who they were in contact with (which is why you need a low number of new infections per day - so you can manage that part), then contact and test them as well). And through an app based containment strategy (contact tracing) potentially, which also would serve the same purpose (once one person gets tested positive - all/more people in their contact path also get tested, and curfewed if positive.).

For that to even be a possibility you need to ramp up your testing capacity, because currently the available 10.000+ tests per day (in austria) are mostly needed for people that turn up at hospitals and show symptoms and hospital staff that has to be tested daily, not become a potent propagation vector on their own.

The way you ramp up testing capacity to far higher numbers is by developing antibody tests (different kind of tests) that work (reliability currently is a problem on those). Those are very much faster and cheaper to get results from and can be scaled up in numbers more flexibly.

Social distancing and compulsory mask usage in public are measures to keep the new infection rate per case low (if its linear and not exponential, you can go a longer time without state or nationwide curfews), and opening up additional sectors of society, every two weeks is just a way to gage, what level of openness of a society under social distancing and mandatory mask usage you can have in your society specifically, before the daily new infection rate becomes unmanageable again.

The 'we can have tourism with select countries' line follows the logic of - if the daily new infection rate, as well as relative case rate in one of your neighboring countries is roughly the same as in yours, you dont need to keep borders closed, because the situation would be no different to what it is in your country anyhow. But then - enact restrictions on movement (numbers of people they can come in contact with each day), so one tourist group on a tight schedule with a few positive cases in it, can not infect a large number of other people in a very short timespan.

Easy. 

edit: Oh, and should you be interested, schools should be reopened by maybe mid may (hasnt been decided yet) - on that countries schedule. Tentative reopening of parts of the stores started roughly a week ago. But all of that is dependent on how low you can get your daily new infection rate anyhow.

Ah, and of course at some point even doing all of that might lead to daily new infection rates becoming too high again, in which case you have to impose curfews again (for that you can look at how japan handled the situation (had to impose curfews much later - because a mitigation strategy (masks) was in place earlier already).


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## notimp (Apr 20, 2020)

To see all of that in graphs:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/austria/

f.e.:





--

I personally also like https://ncov2019.live/ as a resource to compare different countries.

edit:

Daily new infection rates for the US would have to be around 3500 (roughly) to be able to do the same (followup testing and contact tracing) mitigation, while opening up stores again. (Austria is 36x smaller in population numbers.  )

Currently - it is not:






The good news is, doing what they were doing (state actions), the US also stopped (halted) the exponential growth rate of new infections. (edit: Or not, see end of this posting..  )

And comparing those graphs only makes sense, if you know how large the percentage of your population is thats not caught by your testing regiment (dark figure).  And if you are testing trends, that are roughly comparable to Covid19 propagation trends in your general population.  This is the second reason why you need widely available testing capability.
--

edit: Another way to look at this, for the US would be:
30000*365*1.5 = 16.4 million

Which means, that if you can keep the daily rate of new infections roughly constant, at most 16.4 million people in the US (thats roughly 5% of US population) would be infected 18 months from now, when a vaccine would likely become available.

On known infection numbers, death rate even in germany is 3%, so that would mean roughly 500.000 Covid deaths in the US.

At the current US fatality rate of 5.3% that would mean 870.000 deaths.

This is to illustrate - what if Austria just was too harsh too early in their strategy - and the US approach would consist of only leveling out daily new infection rates at 30.000 cases.

Of course - to all of that you add cases that dont show up in your testing as well.

And of course 'constant' and 'linear' is far from certain (or likely).  (In both directions. (Could be better (harsh curfews, lower population density (also, on that a metric thats currently used more is 'effective range of movement of a person on average'), with curfews in austria that was more than halved), could be worse (not enough testing available, no nationwide curfews)(And for both simply being at the correct point in time to calculate averages.  ).))
-

edit2: Oh - and US daily new infection rate plateauing at 30k new cases a day constantly - much more likely is a factor of you having reached testing capacity on any of those days - than, for some reason, new infections actually constantly having plateaued at that level for several days, for some reason. 

edit3: Ah, yes, yes... 
America’s COVID-19 testing has stalled, and that’s a big problem
[news from 2 weeks ago]
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy...-testing-has-stalled-and-thats-a-big-problem/


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## notimp (Apr 20, 2020)

Yay! We have a lethality percentage from the german RKI and it is 0.375%. If your health system doesnt get overtaxed.

So lets do a few calculations here.

For the US - at 70% of people infected, that means 850.000 deaths.

But the question is how fast a cure can be developed.

So if the official death estimate in the US is 240.000, thats a factor of 2.5. Which means the US expects 1/3 of the that population to become infected within the next 18 months. And thats 25% of the overall population. 

Yay, math is fun. 

And thats conservatively calculated, because we are talking germanys fatality levels.

(Could be less though, if their fatality rate is higher (higher than the native one of the virus with a working medical system), then their rate of spread would be lower when the vaccine hits.  )

And germany handled the crisis without running out of testing, or clinic space (so far, second wave still possible).





See - that is how a daily new cases graph looks for another big country that didnt run out of testing capacity. 

Also - if your medical system becomes overtaxed - death rate (/all people) becomes much higher overall of course.
---


Lets do that calculation with new infection numbers at a constant rate of +30.000 a day. so the 16.4 million value above, that would mean: 61500 people dying (at 0.375%), which again means, that the US ran out of their testing capacity.  (Because official state estimates already are at 120.000-240.000 deaths.)


Also we can do something else now. Average number of people dying from influenza in a 'heavy outbreak' year in germany is 20.000 which comes down to 0.024% - which means that Covid-19 is 15x worse than a problematic flu year. If your health system doesnt become overtaxed. If it does, its worse. How much worse?

If you just take italys and germanys death numbers currently, and factor out populations - italy (which also was hit earlier) currently was hit 7x harder. So thats the absolute highest factor you'd have to multiply with additionally.  Real factor of how much harder if your medical system fails to be able to handle capacity is likely much lower - italy is only now starting to be able to manage the crisis, so a high death number up to this point, but a much lower one for the next 18 months until a vaccine should become available...  )


edit: Also should you have the idea to simply multiply yearly US flu deaths by 15x and look at that number - good luck:
https://aspe.hhs.gov/cdc-—-influenza-deaths-request-correction-rfc


edit2: Also interesting, if you take that 0.375% percentage and throw it at the imperial college number of 2mio people in the US dying if no measures were taken, you end up with an effective population percentage of people being effected of 60% - which is roughly (60%-70%) what you'd need for the epidemic to end through herd immunity. (Considering only population numbers.) Which means - rate of spread in the US played almost no role in that model? (Not much lower or higher than germany.)

And just for giggles - 15x higher death rate than a bad flu year (on a questionable data basis) in the US roughly would mean 600.000 people dying.

So only 1.4 million people in the US would be saved by engaging in mitigation strategies at all?  Now you can start to do worth of life and impact on the functioning of the economy calculations.. 

edit: Medium lifetime worth (9/11 compensations, wrongful death sentence compensations) of a human life in the us is 2 million USD so this comes out at 2.8 trillion.  And US already signed a fiscal stimulus package worth between 2.4, and 6 trillion USD package (high number source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/15/coronavirus-economy-6-trillion/ ) - so.. well - thats at least a comparison..


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## notimp (Apr 20, 2020)

Official deathrate estimate of the WHO for africa also is about 0.375%. God - I want to have their job.

Google population number of africa, substract 30%, multiply by 0.375% (Covid-19 fatality rate)

(1200000000-30%)*0.375% = 3 million

Send out press release. Get featured in the news all over the world.  *jk*

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/science...EE-MILLION-people-die-coronavirus-Africa.html


edit:
So lets do the WHO thing (thats a joke, their models probably are more complex  ) and go big. 

World population.

(7800000000-30%)*0.375% = 20 mio people

Medium estimate of people dying in the world of influenza every year is 390.000 ( src: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/ ) that opens up a difference of 51x (not 15x as expected). God, estimation math sucks..


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## kalelenit (Apr 21, 2020)

At this time, we all need to be very careful. In general, if possible, then sit at home.


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## notimp (Apr 22, 2020)

BORTZ said:


> I would be much more willing to believe its a prematurely escaped bio-weapon from Wuhan rather than bat soup. All of that for sure over "5G" towers.





notimp said:


> But only for bat soup in specific.  (As in cooked.  )
> 
> Here is the disclaimer for 'why bats'.


Here is a better disclaimer for 'why bats' (and not engineered f.e.). 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30418-9/fulltext

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/27/coronavirus-covid19-dont-blame-bat-soup-for-the-virus/

You have to read them though..


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## WarioWaffles (Apr 24, 2020)

notimp said:


> So only 1.4 million people in the US would be saved by engaging in mitigation strategies at all?  Now you can start to do worth of life and impact on the functioning of the economy calculations..


That's assuming a functional vaccine can be found and that it doesn't become a new influenza and bring down the average life expectancy. Of course it could just disappear like the last sars but making assumptions based on the disappearance of the virus in an arbitrary period is bold "eh we're gonna cure this in 2 years max so how many people would we lose by then?".

Not to mention doctors skew older so medical fatalities hit medical capacity and efficiency twice.


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## 30yoDoomer (Apr 25, 2020)

WarioWaffles said:


> I'm not sure every state should be as extreme as NY but this virus overwhelms the healthcare system at incredible speeds and, irony of ironies, some hospitals are shutting down because they don't have enough patients. If the supply chain burns down we won't have any healthcare and if we do nothing the hospitals will be overwhelmed with covid patients.


It is a very weird phenomenon to see. If I remember correctly, OG SARS had almost half of the infections occur in a medical setting so it gives people incentive to avoid spurious trips to the ER (unfortunately even necessary trips too - "that chest pain is probably just heart burn. I don't want to risk going to the hospital during a pandemic"). 
My local ambulance service said their calls were down 60%, which is probably a good thing because they still don't have enough PPE.


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## notimp (Apr 27, 2020)

Yale study, (current) US corona death figure probably underrepresented by 50-100%. For once thats not a slant against the US, because it should be somewhat similar in the rest of the world. 






https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/04/27/covid-19-death-toll-undercounted/


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## FAST6191 (Apr 27, 2020)

Barring second wave (or maybe third or it becoming annual) happening next year I am curious to see what will go. Whether it picked off the "95% of the way there this year" set so there will be a drop then. Not to mention what happened for flu season this year, and possibly an age breakdown of all the numbers (comorbidities either presumed or noted/made apparent if they are good).

People seem to be focused on deaths as well and I am curious about longer term too; it will presumably be decades before we see the really interesting stuff like the people that go polio routinely getting certain types of cancers but as and when for that one, unless they do have some nice accelerated testing data somehow. Any disparities between approaches taken (or whether this kung flu diet will see the fat bastard supply topped up), and resources available (did delays in PPE see a spike sort of thing) will also be good to see.

More data, more fun, especially when it sourced from interesting methods. I should be especially interested to see what goes for China and how badly they lied, or maybe didn't (if airlines are going pop at an even greater rate now I imagine next new year is going to see a little taken off the top there inside China).

... actually curious about biology and stats now which is a rarity, though to be fair bioinformatics is probably where I would gravitate were I to go play such things. Might have to find some decent sources for some of this and do some number crunching, or cook up some expected metrics to play with.


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## notimp (May 2, 2020)

More data points.

With app contact tracing, germany would need a capacity of around 2mio tests a week to do the follow up. (Underlying infection rate not mentioned.) (US has a population thats 4x higher.)


Second wave would/will be more problematic all around the world. Many countries (germany as an example) had their population react (change behavior) early, so in many countries infestation rate in the population is still low, which meant that you could still pinpoint infection vectors and isolate them.

On a second wave, many people believe, that public reaction would be different, while potential infection vectors would have multiplied by then, which means a harsher progression would be more likely.


Time until vaccine is still speculated to be in the 18-24 months range, and when the vaccine hits, it will take time for it to be widely available (will be available for risk groups first, also - maybe less well tested) - 2023 was named (speculated) as the date when most western societies would have it widely available.

src: Karl Lauterbach via Aufwachen (Tilo Jung) (german source, epidemiologist thats a member of the german Bundestag, and also is in contact with the important Harvard and London working groups)


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## notimp (May 4, 2020)

According to Last Week Tonight with John Oliver ( ), US is currently at 200.000 tests a day. Which is a factor of 5.5 too low, if you take that german number (for testing capacity needed for contact tracing) seriously. (Adjusted for population size.)

Also in Germany, judging by the fatality rate, the number of people infected in the population is probably lower, which means, that 5.5x is a low balled value.

Fun with math...


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## notimp (May 4, 2020)

More datapoints.

Worldwide fund to finance vaccine development is estimated to get 7.5 billion Eur in funding. EU funding for economic reconstruction will be 1.5 trillion Eur (at least).


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## notimp (Jun 9, 2020)

notimp said:


> Yay! We have a lethality percentage from the german RKI and it is 0.375%. If your health system doesnt get overtaxed.



We have an estimation on what the european deathtoll would have been without a lockdown. (But assuming, that hospitals still would have remained operational.)

Again from the Imperial College London:
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52968523

If I correlate that with european population figures, it comes down to a fatalityrate  of 0.65%

(100/518)*3.385 = 0.65%

3.385 derived from 3.2 mio 'additional deaths' plus 185.000 actual deaths on record.

Meaning two things, deathrate would have been 17 times higher if no measures were taken. (Second wave potential not included.)

And that actual death rate (for european population, not 'infected populations') should be even well below 0.375% in europe, with the lockdown in place. (The real one, not the one derived from 'tested' figures.)

Or I made a logic error.. 

edit: Made and corrected one logic error, replaced 'population of europe' with 'population of europe minus 30%' (point of herd immunity).

edit: But still, the more interesting calculation to look at is probably:

(100/741)*3.385 = 0.45%

(Looking at it from the perspective of the entire european population and not 'potentially infected people'.)

Meaning, without a lockdown it is estimated that 0.45% of people in europe would have died. With the lockdown in place 0.024% of europeans died (You can double that number, if you want to add a margin for unreported cases.).

edit: Yearly flu deaths in europe are 72.000. So with the curfews in place (and presuming there is no second wave), Covid-19 was 2.5x worse than seasonal flue.

But without the curfews in place, it would have been 45 times worse than a seasonal flu.


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## notimp (Jun 10, 2020)

notimp said:


> We have an estimation on what the european deathtoll would have been without a lockdown. (But assuming, that hospitals still would have remained operational.)
> 
> Again from the Imperial College London:
> https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52968523
> ...


But thats also not the entire story either. 

So how likely would that 45x times the flu scenario have been - if some countries acted (like most of them did currently) but others did not.

Not very likely.

Here you see the 'worst' countries (in terms of how they handled the crisis), (Baseline (in all images) is a country that acted with some delay, but pretty well.):







What you see here is (edit: first and foremost, numbers of infected people  ), that either - lack of testing makes those graphs useless, because the curve always curbs well before 2/3s of population size (  ), or that peoples behavior had an impact that would have almost always reduced the fatality number well before 45x that of seasonal flu. 

45x in the Imperial College London case is the number, if peoples behavior wouldnt have changed. And hospitals still stayed operational.

(That masks where available, also helped.)

In the graphs, the y axis (where the curve lands in absolute terms) is almost entirely useless for a direct comparison (different population sizes), its the relative shape of the curve thats interesting.

So this posting is your 'control' as to how much of an impact your governments behavior actually had.

If you dont know, Brasil is 'geographically challenged, and economically challenged (gini coefficient)), United Kingdom, switched their stratefy too late, Sweden went for herd immunity (but the public voluntarily changed their behavior on their own), and Italy had a very high case count early on.


edit: On second thought - if you compare the baseline in all the graphs with the one in Sweden, it suggests that Sweden could have had about 9(- 45)x less fatalities, if they acted like everyone else did. When they did. (Or earlier.) High margin of error.  (Tried to get a feel for what 'no behavioral changes' means in the Imperial Colledge London model.)

So ultimately you just see how hard it is, to predict outcomes that are on an exponential growth curve, where you don't know when and how fast exponential growth can be stifled.


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## notimp (Jun 10, 2020)

Also interesting, if the US had acted 'better', they could have saved about 5000 people? (Only?) High margin of error.

(Looking at the shape of the curve, if the US had curbed it at the same rate as baseline country did, they presumably would have stayed at around 700.000 infections, so 1.260.000 less people infected, which at 0.375% fatality rate meanst 5000 people would have died less.

That said, baseline country (where 0.375% death rate is applicable) had good testing distribution. The US had not. (So 5000 maybe also needs to be scaled by at least a significant factor.  )

edit: Uh, we can guess that factor, by looking at US Covid death rate vs known infection rate. Stand by. 

edit2: 14x

So US could have potentially saved 70.000 people, by acting 'better' (not necessarily earlier). High margin of error.

(edit: For comparison, around 40.000 people are killed in car accidents in the US every year.

edit: And 0.375% couldnt be applied to the graph of baseline country either. But that has no impact on the guesses above.  )

End of napkin math. 

edit: Also, thats presuming, that the crisis (problematic growth) is almost over - which in europe it maybe is, but in the US it may be less so. 

See:




src: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

vs.




src: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


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## FAST6191 (Jun 10, 2020)

Interesting numbers.

Do we get to treat the US as a big block for this as there were rather disparate policies across the place there?

Car crashes are good stats but I am also interested in long term economics of this one. We could do decent estimations based on past data for that one, and if we are doing economics then while dead peeps produce no GDP I also wonder at how many were old people (pensioners contribute but not that much) or those likely to die anyway as a part of this.

We also get to play "what are acceptable numbers?".


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## UltraSUPRA (Jun 10, 2020)




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## notimp (Jun 13, 2020)

@Ultrasuper: sources pls? The picture doesnt even indicate if its Covid 19 related or not. You cant fail more obviously.

USA also has - by far a lower testing rate per capita than all the countries listed in the graph.

Meaning you are praising systemic failure, not an actual achievement, meaning you are a flipping drone.

Proof to follow.

edit:
Notice something?
(src: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us and similar)


































And finally - the US:





Notice something? The US is the only one of those countries that doesnt have enough testing and is lying about their absolute numbers.

That - or one other possible explanation, that doesnt explain the anomality in daily new cases in the US, namely that the US has a 'geographical' advantage (lower population density).

So if you post such a graph, please understand, that in the US only about a third (if at all) of all the people in those other countries are even tested. This also could extend to Covid-19 deaths.

We know, that the propagation in the US is far larger than in any of the european countries at this point. We know that the pandemic is uncontrolable (source control) in the US at this point, via conventional means (curfews still work, mask if populations wear them work as well - but in the US thats not working either). And we have absolutely no idea, what would explain the lower death rate per capita, if it werent for the factors I just talked about. (Either fake numbers, or abysmally low testing, or the country being able to handle it better in parts, because population density is far lower, and thereby spread is less fast (thats 'god on your side' if you so want, if thats the case, you lucked out).

Everything I've read indicates, that the third factor should not be very important as far as spread control is concerned. So its back to lies and missrepresentation.

And drones like you championing a graph where I can tell you right here and now, that it is wrong. Also without naming a source.


Also, what your graph does, is to take a value of something thats in high demand and not widely available, and then correlated that with the highest number possible (total population), which is a great way to increase statistical uncertainty. (Your initial number of tested cases was small, you extrapolated that to the largest possible number available for your nation, then you celebrated that your ratio was so best. (As a result of you being a big country.))

I bet, that the US in general has the lowest ratio of anything 'negative', to what was tested, because in the US science based decision making is optional, an apparently you have next to no testing facilities.

edit: To find out, you in the US have to watch 'excess mortality' numbers. (Meaning, how many more people have died during the Covid-19 pandemic, compared to the average (quarter of a) year.) You get your real numbers that way. If you cant distribute enough testing.

In my country (dealt with Covid-19 'well' (harsh measures)) there is no higher excess mortality in those periods. (Higher Covid-19 deaths would have f.e. been counted against lower numbers of mortality in car accidents.).

edit:

According to those numbers:
https://web.archive.org/web/2020061...ive/2020/06/10/world/coronavirus-history.html

Excess mortality rate in the US also is still 'pretty low', even relative to other countries - outside its cities. That still indicates, that some other factor like population density is in play here as well.

Maybe in the end the US did luck out. (Its harder to fudge mortality numbers over a period of time..  )

edit: this (see link above) is the important graph for the US (and versions of it going into the future).






Baseline (x axis) is (normalized) normal death rate over time. y axis is 'higher than normal deathrate' during the period.

Oh, and I forget, that the US was scheduled to have its peak outbreak right around june or july, so ideally you'd find that graph extended for the next two months as well. (Probably available two months from now..  )


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## notimp (Jun 13, 2020)

Oh, and I forgot to mention that @UltraSUPRA is a freaking double dip drone, because what he represented for the US was data "up to 43 days after the first Covid-19 death".

Which for the US was around early february. So all data in his graph, for the US ends in march. Which was when the US really hadn't had any extensive testing yet.

*horray*

So please, know what you are posting, and know what you are looking at.


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## UltraSUPRA (Jun 13, 2020)

notimp said:


> Oh, and I forgot to mention that @UltraSUPRA is a freaking double dip drone, because what he represented for the US was data "up to 43 days after the first Covid-19 death".
> 
> Which for the US was around early february. So all data in his graph, for the US ends in march. Which was when the US really hadn't had any extensive testing yet.
> 
> ...


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## notimp (Jun 13, 2020)

Thank you for the update. 

My response would be something like this, probably.. 


> [Compared to the other four largest countries] The number of deaths is rising faster in the US, but individual statistics don't tell the full story.
> 
> For comparisons to be useful, says Rowland Kao, professor of data science at the University of Edinburgh, there are two broad issues to consider.
> 
> "Does the underlying data mean the same thing? And does it make sense to compare two sets of numbers if the epidemiology [all the other factors surrounding the spread of the disease] is different?"


src: https://www.bbc.com/news/52311014

One such factor would be population density, f.e.


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## notimp (Jun 13, 2020)

Also - and this is why UltraSUPRA is a dumbell three times around - total population number in all the other 9 listed countries combined comes out at

(absolute death figures in brackets)

11,4 (9650)
47 (27136)
66 (41481)
60 (34223)
65 (29374)
10 (4874)
17,3 (6057)
6,6 (1705)
8,6 (1938)
=
292 mio people (156438 covid deaths combined)

which comes out to an average covid death rate per 100,000 of all the other 9 "highest effected" countries combined of 53.

Then you look at the current US death rate per capita of 100.000, and it is 35. Up from 30 a month ago.

(100/328000000)*117000 = 0.035
100000*0.035% = 35

Conclusion:

Lets just wait a little.. 


Picking out an entire list of smaller countries with populations mostly in cities (faster spread), again, heavily distorts the listing here, because the uncertainty factor with a larger population size in the US gets larger and larger (relative to testing capability), and if you are listing Switzerland, you could as well list New York, witch had about 5x the average US deathrate.  (at the peak).

Also you have a peak outbreak mismatch, which means, that the US is still picking up more deaths.  But the deathrate is declining in the US as well, so compared to all other 9 countries with the biggest outbreaks (as per cases tested, other countries may not be testing as much or not releasing the same numbers), the US - in the end may be 20% 'better'.

But per capita it has done about 1/3 of the tests of any european country. So what is the chance, that those 20% difference can be explained away by 'US underreporting covid death numbers'? 


Again - its best to wait for the excess mortality numbers here in any case - those will be more definite.  Then you can do good 'my country is better than yours' comparisons..


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## notimp (Jun 17, 2020)

New treatment option:
https://web.archive.org/web/2020061...d/europe/dexamethasone-coronavirus-covid.html

orig src: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/16/world/europe/dexamethasone-coronavirus-covid.html

Reduces deaths of heavy cases by a fifth to a third (if they need oxygen, in addition to receiving ventilation, deathrate is higher))


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## notimp (Jun 18, 2020)

Lets use this as a teaching moment.

Everyone who reads this, can never complain about media being sensationalistic again.

Any news that doesnt come with 'suspense, worry or outrage' could as well not have happened and Interests no one in todays social media economy.

Who cares that a partial cure is found that will save hundreds of thousands.

*crickets*

Its just not sexy enough.

Now you hopefully understand, why media crafts headlines the way it does.


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## notimp (Jun 21, 2020)

Better visualization of what (unrestricted) exponential growth does (and what restricting it does). Using the Covid-19 numbers.

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2562261/

You have to click through

Video version of it:
https://i.imgur.com/2HUoIcZ.mp4


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## UltraSUPRA (Jun 24, 2020)

It's ten days 'til the 4th of July.


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## UltraDolphinRevolution (Jun 27, 2020)

COVID19 could be much older than previously thought:
It was found in sewer samples in Barcelona which dates back to March 2019. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-science-idUSKBN23X2HQ
https://www.rt.com/news/493085-covid-spain-march-2019-sewage/


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## notimp (Jun 27, 2020)

Dont just layer in RT links, without comment, when not needed.  I presume people come for the pictures with the easy to read oneliners, and stay for the anti western propaganda.  (Mainstreaming RT in general isnt the smartest choice.  If they have an interesting factoid from time to time sure, but for a 'matter of fact' story like this...)

RT basically is the russian equivalent to what radio liberty was in eastern europe 70 years ago..


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## UltraDolphinRevolution (Jun 27, 2020)

That´s why I also provided the Reuters link. I can also look for Chinese or Arabic sources if people want to accuse Reuters of bias as well.


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## notimp (Jun 27, 2020)

UltraDolphinRevolution said:


> That´s why I also provided the Reuters link. I can also look for Chinese or Arabic sources if people want to accuse Reuters of bias as well.


I have no problem with you even providing the RT link, but give context. 

Otherwise people might just pick the one with the better pictures.  (Reuters has no pictures.  ) Not knowing what they are reading.


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## UltraDolphinRevolution (Jun 27, 2020)

Why do I need to provide context? I also don´t provide context about the ownership and ideological direction of other sources.

Ok, hear hear:
-RT is funded by the Russian Federation. RT reports from all over the world.
-Reuters is a news agency which operates world-wide as well. It used to receive funds by the United Kingdom and is named after its founder, a British gentleman of German-Jewish descent.

Do I need to do this every time?


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## notimp (Jun 27, 2020)

Only with RT (am I missing one..  ) imho, because its production qualities are just high enough, that it really has popular appeal.  And its still 'kind of new'?

The thing I'm after is, that if you read that primarily, you'd get a "everything I know is so different from what the government is telling my countries other media outlets - drift", which kind of puts you on the edge of society (discussions) by default.

If you are interested in a broad spectrum of news consuption, you might read and watch it as well (Allthough why? The only catch they got is Hedges..  Sometimes... ), but as your only news source - I wouldnt recommend. Especialy, because they are actively playing with a PR angle, not just taking the one from the respective government press releases..  (and then playing with that less actively  )

When looking at your links, I just thought to myself - Reuters has no pictures, but RT has - and somehow I didn't like that..  Thought of people new to 'reading the news'.

Discussing this in public also has an effect, so no - you dont have to do it all the time.

But using RT to underline a Covid Story? Why... Cant you just discriminate?  (Ok, thats bad - but I personally dont link sources that are known to have a pretty obvious PR drift on straight laced stories. I link them on stories, only they bring..  And yes this is bias.)


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## UltraDolphinRevolution (Jun 28, 2020)

notimp said:


> I personally dont link sources that are known to have a pretty obvious PR drift on straight laced stories.


Same is true for many western media sources, though I would exclude Reuters. They often mix reporting with propaganda, e.g. when they speak of "regimes" instead of governments. Therefore I now call their governments "regimes" as well. Just an example.


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## notimp (Jun 28, 2020)

UltraDolphinRevolution said:


> Same is true for many western media sources, though I would exclude Reuters. They often mix reporting with propaganda, e.g. when they speak of "regimes" instead of governments. Therefore I now call their governments "regimes" as well. Just an example.


To a certain and I'd even say lesser extent. In most cases. The default position of RT, or I'd say The Hill on youtube (to a lesser extent), or 'insert whatever pundit show you like', is to put an agitation spin on news items, if one is to be had.

The default position of (non yellow press) western news media outlets is not.

That said, when it comes to potentially controversial subjects, or subjects where there is a strong indication, that the governments line of thought (or the line of a financier of a paper) needs to be represented - read around, and maybe even screen some of the more controversial sources.

But whats not true is, that RT is just another news outlet, with a slightly different perspective. Same as with The Hill on youtube, they usually are agitating against 'the default position' any chance they get. They move more on what I'd call a PR spin, than conventional outlets.

Does it mean, that they are always wrong? No. But it means that they will represent a world view to you thats largely different from what everyone else gets, and largely for no reason.

I'll watch, or read them - when I'm in the mood, but you layered them in as a 'just another source' on a 'normal' (conventional, undisputed, matter of fact reporting) newsitem, and understanding their mode of operation, thats not ideal.


On certain news items, they even might be more 'to the point' than the majority of western outlets, but that is not because of diligent efforts in reporting. Thats usually because one governments line added more spin on an issue, than another one..  Also - I believe, that most people will be better off, if they dont take the 'devils advocate' position on newsitems in their own jurisdictions as fact.

And RT is a russian state financed media outlet, targeting western markets. Its not 'a russian newspaper' its a propaganda outlet. That said, sometimes there can be inklings of truth even in propaganda, or counter propaganda, so watching what they say can be a fun recreational activity. 

Until you start posting them as 'just another source' on the Covid outbreak. Looking at russia and the Covid outbreak specifically, they probably would be the last news media outlet I'd try to get my Covid-19 scoops from. But even then, the newsitem in itself wasnt problematic - what was, imho, was, to just allow for people to pick them up as 'just another news source' - without at least hinting at any of the things we just went through.

Because - from a PR view, Covid-19 and other largely neutral, but highly emotional, high profile news items are great for them to acquire new audiences. Which then might even just expect factual reporting on the rest of what they produce, when not looking too closely.

The video to usually link, when trying to explain what RT "is", is this one:
edit: It is this one h**ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GOaQA6uFacA but no subtitled version is to be found on youtube... I saw parts of that speech translated afair on an Arte documentary. Its a head of state gratulating them on their success (youtube clicknumbers), and what they had achieved, and praising their management, and... and they arent a news medium thats active (as in relevant) in russia. And when Putin is in that room, thats not a 'fluke' or a nice gesture, thats state protocol - and every one around knows, what the important speech that evening is..


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## notimp (Jul 16, 2020)

Just so you all know - US Covid-19 numbers will be doctored from now on.

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/15/8915...ls-to-bypass-cdc-send-covid-19-data-to-washin


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## notimp (Jul 16, 2020)

China censors reporting:
https://cpj.org/2020/07/hong-kong-denies-work-permit-to-new-york-times-correspondent-chris-buckley/


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## Veho (Jul 16, 2020)

notimp said:


> China censors reporting:
> https://cpj.org/2020/07/hong-kong-denies-work-permit-to-new-york-times-correspondent-chris-buckley/


China censors reporting but that's not what this article is about. China and the US have been expelling each others reporters for a while now, as part of the overall dick waving contest they've been having.


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## notimp (Jul 16, 2020)

Veho said:


> China censors reporting but that's not what this article is about. China and the US have been expelling each others reporters for a while now, as part of the overall dick waving contest they've been having.


The reporter thats named worked on the Covid-19 beat around the time this happened. And usually this doesnt happen. (First time, in a long time (talking about HK, and a NYT corespondent), afaik.)

edit: see f.e. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/covidcast-xi-jinping-and-covid-19


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## Hanafuda (Jul 16, 2020)

Note there's a difference between "case fatality rate" and "mortality risk" ... (https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid) a reliable mortality risk is hard to determine because we'll never know exactly how many 'positive' cases there are out there. The case fatality rate shown in the chart above is a the ratio of know cases vs. known deaths. So while not "dependable" in predicting the odds of dying from the virus in any given country, it's still a generally reliable measure based on objective data. Anyway, just thought I'd share this for some of the people who've been representing here that the USA is a killing field and all other nations are doing great.


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## TheRedfox (Jul 18, 2020)

Hanafuda said:


> Note there's a difference between "case fatality rate" and "mortality risk" ... (https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid) a reliable mortality risk is hard to determine because we'll never know exactly how many 'positive' cases there are out there. The case fatality rate shown in the chart above is a the ratio of know cases vs. known deaths. So while not "dependable" in predicting the odds of dying from the virus in any given country, it's still a generally reliable measure based on objective data. Anyway, just thought I'd share this for some of the people who've been representing here that the USA is a killing field and all other nations are doing great.



I like how even the banner of your own source says how poor of a measure it is in the middle of a pandemic. Your second wave only started like 3 weeks ago, people take time to die.
*You might be doing great now according to the CFR, but that can change quickly*

For florida for example the infections started rising one month ago, and only 2 weeks ago the deaths/day started following.
The problem is, you're lucky if the death count keeps being low. But if the death count suddenly rises exponentially then there's nothing you can do to stop it quickly. Even when everyone isolates now instantly the deaths/day might still incrase over the timespan over the next 3 weeks. And then the USA will be the killing field.


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## Hanafuda (Jul 18, 2020)

TheRedfox said:


> I like how even the banner of your own source says how poor of a measure it is in the middle of a pandemic. Your second wave only started like 3 weeks ago, people take time to die.
> *You might be doing great now according to the CFR, but that can change quickly*
> 
> For florida for example the infections started rising one month ago, and only 2 weeks ago the deaths/day started following.
> The problem is, you're lucky if the death count keeps being low. But if the death count suddenly rises exponentially then there's nothing you can do to stop it quickly. Even when everyone isolates now instantly the deaths/day might still incrase over the timespan over the next 3 weeks. And then the USA will be the killing field.



I included the explanation for why they say that in my post. "Case fatality rate" isn't a good indicator for actual mortality risk, because the total number of cases including undiagnosed/unidentified can't be known. To assess mortality risk, you'd need to compare total Covid positives against total Covid deaths. It's practically impossible. But what case fatality rate is a good measure for is how a nation handles care and treatment _after_ a person has been identified as a positive. 

Also, your second paragraph sounds slightly hopeful.


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## notimp (Jul 29, 2020)

notimp said:


> Just so you all know - US Covid-19 numbers will be doctored from now on.
> 
> https://www.npr.org/2020/07/15/8915...ls-to-bypass-cdc-send-covid-19-data-to-washin


There are now indicators, that US case numbers are now faked (i.e. falsely reported).


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## UltraSUPRA (Jul 29, 2020)

notimp said:


> There are now indicators, that US case numbers are now faked (i.e. falsely reported).


This is what's called "herd immunity".


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## notimp (Jul 29, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> This is what's called "herd immunity".


Only in Trump states?

At less than 10% of population infected?

(Herd immunity sets in at 60% of population having been infected.)

The issue with the graph is, that Covid-19 case numbers suddenly became 'political' after the HHS took over reporting them.

In fact, on the day the HHS took over reporting them. Took over for no stated reason btw. In a strongly contested political move. 

We are currently 110 days aways from the election.


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## omgcat (Jul 29, 2020)

this is not herd immunity. the skewed numbers are almost entirely republican run states. in the above video, the guy goes over why the numbers are "out of character".

the charts and data can bee seen here: http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

our government has literally started cooking the books on COVID cases. people should be scared, and ashamed, we bitched and yelled about china doing this exact thing. hell a Texan is dying once every 6.5 minutes to this disease. they can hide the numbers, but not the dead bodies.


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## PizzaBitez (Jul 29, 2020)

I had pneumonia in march and that stuff was no joke! I heard covid has simillar syntomps to that.


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## notimp (Aug 1, 2020)

Over mortality figures for the EU:

https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

(About double the mortality compared to an excessive flue year.)

And here per country in the 'worst week overall'


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## UltraSUPRA (Aug 2, 2020)




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## Xzi (Aug 2, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


>


A room full of people who have all had their temperature checked on the way in and are all wearing masks except the current speaker.  What is nuance for 500, Alex.

Meanwhile, Trump rails against mail-in voting but suggests everyone should use absentee ballots instead.  They're the same fucking thing.  You're a dumbass and so is he.


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## UltraSUPRA (Aug 2, 2020)

Xzi said:


> A room full of people who have all had their temperature checked on the way in and are all wearing masks except the current speaker.  What is nuance for 500, Alex.
> 
> Meanwhile, Trump rails against mail-in voting but suggests everyone should use absentee ballots instead.  They're the same fucking thing.  You're a dumbass and so is he.


The problem with mail-order votes is that they can easily be tampered with.


----------



## Xzi (Aug 2, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> The problem with mail-order votes is that they can easily be tampered with.


The problem with that statement is that several states have had mail-in ballots for decades with no tampering to speak of.  Voter fraud is basically non-existent in the US, there are between 2-5 cases per cycle.  _Election_ _fraud_, on the hand, which is to say fraud that comes from the top down, is becoming disturbingly common.


----------



## UltraSUPRA (Aug 2, 2020)

Xzi said:


> The problem with that statement is that several states have had mail-in ballots for decades with no tampering to speak of.  Voter fraud is basically non-existent in the US, there are between 2-5 cases per cycle.  _Election_ _fraud_, on the hand, which is to say fraud that comes from the top down, is becoming disturbingly common.



Don't respond until you've watched the video.


----------



## Xzi (Aug 2, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> Don't respond until you've watched the video.



You knew before you posted it that I wasn't gonna watch any bootlicking GOP propaganda from PragerU.


----------



## UltraSUPRA (Aug 2, 2020)

Xzi said:


> You knew before you posted it that I wasn't gonna watch any bootlicking GOP propaganda from PragerU.


You don't get to have an opinion if you only listen to one side.


----------



## eyeliner (Aug 2, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> Don't respond until you've watched the video.



About the bloated voter roles, might be the lists aren't updated frequently enough? I mean, people die, move state, country or whatever...


----------



## Xzi (Aug 2, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> You don't get to have an opinion if you only listen to one side.


There is only one "side" to the facts.  Stick with accredited institutions or non-profits for statistics.  The Brennan Center for Justice did a thorough investigation on this topic and found 31 cases of voter fraud per _billion_ votes cast since the year 2000.


----------



## UltraSUPRA (Aug 2, 2020)

eyeliner said:


> About the bloated voter roles, might be the lists aren't updated frequently enough? I mean, people die, move state, country or whatever...


It just so happens that dead people are voting.


----------



## eyeliner (Aug 2, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> It just so happens that dead people are voting.


Ah... Damned zombies.


----------



## notimp (Aug 2, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> The problem with mail-order votes is that they can easily be tampered with.


No - let me be the impartial voice on this one as well. 

In our country we have seals on mail order votes, so  once they are closed it is obvious if they've been reopened. If you dont trust the postal system, you can bring them to your voting bureau, over a period of about a month (instead of voting day only)..

Those issues have been solved.

What has not been solved is 'pressure'. You vote in a public place in private, so people can not be pressured by their employers, or by their husbands to vote in front of them, or to hand over votings slips.

This is a culture thing. So as long as your boss doesnt collect your voting ballets, or your spouse gets ideas, you are good. Usually pushing for one year of increased mail in voting should be fine. Problems arise if a large percentage of the country does it for a long time, so that voting/coercion culture can change. (F.e. you start collecting blank voteing ballots from elders in assisted living homes,.. but even this can be disabled by having people sign on the seal of an outer envelope (so vote still is secret, but outer envelope can be signature checked (were you ok with the voting process).))

Apart from that no problems whatsoever,

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------



UltraSUPRA said:


> It just so happens that dead people are voting.


Votes are not personal. If you do ballot stuffing, why would you first register dead people? (Do all of them then also have to come in with fake driving licenses? Or live at still registered addresses you would send ballets to? (Just check if they dont all go to warehouse nr. 7) Not economical.) You just lose a couple of the real votes, right?

Also the system that prevents ballot stuffing is how you set up the voting places - you have representatives of both parties overseeing the entire process  (counting, giving your vote).

This is why it is important that you dont do electronic voting shananigans, because the process has to be as simple as paperslip, and everone in the room understands what that means. As soon as you get programming into that... All of a sudden people stop understanding whats happening.
--

So why are republicans so afraid of vote per mail? They have the more dedicated electorate. So the more easy and convenient you make the process, the more moderate votes come in. US also is the only country I can think of that votes on a work day. Makes no sense - apart from keeping 'less dedicated and poorer peoples votes' out.


----------



## Xzi (Aug 2, 2020)

notimp said:


> So why are republicans so afraid of vote per mail?  Makes no sense - apart from keeping 'less dedicated and poorer peoples votes' out.


Bingo.  There hasn't been a single Republican presidential candidate that's won the popular vote in the last 30-something years (though I believe an incumbent won it once in that time).  If voting is made more accessible, they can't possibly win even the electoral college any more, regardless of how much gerrymandering they do.  Voter suppression has been their primary strategy for decades.


----------



## UltraSUPRA (Aug 2, 2020)

Xzi said:


> Bingo.  There hasn't been a single Republican presidential candidate that's won the popular vote in the last 30-something years (though I believe an incumbent won it once in that time).  If voting is made more accessible, they can't possibly win even the electoral college any more, regardless of how much gerrymandering they do.  Voter suppression has been their primary strategy for decades.


Republicans lost the popular vote because of fake votes.


----------



## notimp (Aug 2, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> Republicans lost the popular vote because of fake votes.


Give examples, show something that could be seen as proof or as more than just opinion.
--

Over mortality in the UK was 13x-40x (1 is the normalized normal, but 3 also is in 'expected range') higher than in normal years, but only for a few weeks (before measures were taken).







https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

edit: Excess mortality  in the US only was moderately higher so far:




(graph goes from january to july)

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

So (compared color coding with Sweden) about 4x-13x higher than normal during the spike.


----------



## Xzi (Aug 2, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> Republicans lost the popular vote because of fake votes.


They lost the popular vote because their platform is less popular.  You can simply look at voter registration data to verify that, you don't even need to look at specific elections.


----------



## notimp (Aug 2, 2020)

> Republican politicians across the country have for years railed against the threat of voter fraud. Some have made unproven claims about how rampant it has become in order to pass voter ID laws and open sweeping investigations. The sanctity of the vote, they have said, must be protected at all costs.
> 
> But when a hard-fought congressional election in North Carolina — in which a Republican candidate appeared to narrowly beat his Democratic opponent — was overturned this week because of election fraud by a Republican political operative, the party was measured, and largely muted, in its response.


src: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/22/us/republican-voter-fraud.html

Second part is anecdotal evidence, but first part again is structural. If you get more voter ID laws passed, more people have to register beforehand - which again keeps the less dedicated people out.

edit: Here, listen to Trump on this one.. 



> “The things they had in there were crazy. They had things, levels of voting that if you’d ever agreed to it, you’d never have a Republican elected in this country again,” Trump said during an appearance on Fox & Friends. “They had things in there about election days and what you do and all sorts of clawbacks. They had things that were just totally crazy and had nothing to do with workers that lost their jobs and companies that we have to save.”


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/30/trump-republican-party-voting-reform-coronavirus

Also:


> “I don’t want everybody to vote,” Paul Weyrich, an influential conservative activist, said in 1980. “As a matter of fact, our leverage in the elections quite candidly goes up as the voting populace goes down.”


(Same source as above.)


----------



## UltraSUPRA (Aug 2, 2020)

Xzi said:


> They lost the popular vote because their platform is less popular.  You can simply look at voter registration data to verify that, you don't even need to look at specific elections.


Now remove the illegal aliens...


----------



## Xzi (Aug 2, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> Now remove the illegal aliens...


Easy enough, since they can't register to vote in the first place rofl.


----------



## UltraSUPRA (Aug 2, 2020)

Xzi said:


> Easy enough, since they can't register to vote in the first place rofl.


Seems like you ignored the video. Fitting for a socialist.

Here's another photo.


----------



## Xzi (Aug 2, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> Seems like you ignored the video. Fitting for a socialist anyone with an ounce of common sense.


FTFY.



UltraSUPRA said:


>


And that has what do with illegal aliens supposedly voting, exactly?  You want to switch subjects now to how Portland protests were peaceful both before the feds showed up and after they left?


----------



## CactusMan (Aug 2, 2020)

There is a thirth wave comming. Social distance yourself. Don´t  comunicate with sisters, brothers ´n mothers. Epstain killed himself. And Bill Gates his vaccines are pretty fine https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/side-effects.htm . 

Social distancing is preventing expociure.


----------



## omgcat (Aug 2, 2020)

Xzi said:


> FTFY.
> 
> 
> And that has what do with illegal aliens supposedly voting, exactly?  You want to switch subjects now to how Portland protests were peaceful both before the feds showed up and after they left?



he's losing the argument so he uses the standard non-sequitur.


----------



## Xzi (Aug 2, 2020)

CactusMan said:


> There is a thirth wave comming. Social distance yourself. Don´t  comunicate with sisters, brothers ´n mothers. Epstain killed himself. And Bill Gates his vaccines are pretty fine https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/side-effects.htm .
> 
> Social distancing is preventing expociure.


I'm not confident that the US has even made it out of the first wave yet.


----------



## KingVamp (Aug 2, 2020)

Pro Tip: Just say socialism at some point and you win all the arguments.


----------



## UltraSUPRA (Aug 2, 2020)

Xzi said:


> FTFY.


Again, there's always more than one side to any argument.


Xzi said:


> And that has what do with illegal aliens supposedly voting, exactly?  You want to switch subjects now to how Portland protests were peaceful both before the feds showed up and after they left?


That wasn't about voting. That was about how there were hundreds of people outside, all very close to each other. Even if many of them were wearing masks, they only redirect the spread to the sides of your mouth and they don't protect the wearer. If these people can do these massive gatherings just because *one guy *killed *one guy* who mugged a pregnant woman at gunpoint, why can't I go to church? Why can't my parents vote in person? Why can't millions of people attend their grandparents' funerals?

Oh wait, right, paranoia.

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------



KingVamp said:


> Pro Tip: Just say socialism at some point and you win all the arguments.


I meant to say Soviet.


----------



## slimbizzy (Aug 2, 2020)

politics mothafucka.

you're answer is happened.


----------



## Xzi (Aug 2, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> Again, there's always more than one side to any argument.


And PragerU is always on the wrong side of any argument.  You might as well be citing Kanye West as a source.



UltraSUPRA said:


> If these people can do these massive gatherings just because *one guy *killed *one guy* who mugged a pregnant woman at gunpoint, why can't I go to church? Why can't my parents vote in person? Why can't millions of people attend their grandparents' funerals?
> 
> Oh wait, right, paranoia.


There are multiple factors at play here.  Yes, large gatherings of any sort put you at increased risk of exposure.  Being outdoors however is a mitigating factor to some degree, and anybody attending protests is deeming it worth the risk.  Churches being closed is on a state-by-state basis, and in many cases churches were closed because churchgoers failed to wear masks OR social distance, causing large outbreaks.  A lot of funeral services are held in churches, so the same applies there, though people who don't want to wait on that sort of thing have been doing outdoor funerals instead.

Lastly, in-person voting will also be on a state-by-state basis, but for the life of me I can't think of any good reason why anyone would _want_ to wait hours in line to vote during a pandemic when mail-in/drop-off ballots are so much more convenient and time-saving.



UltraSUPRA said:


> I meant to say Soviet.


The irony of that when it's obvious that Putin has Trump under his thumb...


----------



## ghostbit (Aug 2, 2020)

notimp said:


> RT basically is the russian equivalent to what radio liberty was in eastern europe 70 years ago..


Not even close. I'm not deeply familiar enough to try to claim that RT is totally objective, but it's a little more than a state propaganda venue. Jesse Ventura has a few good stories about his time with the station and how they never tried even slightly to slant or editorialize his content.


----------



## UltraSUPRA (Aug 2, 2020)

Xzi said:


> And PragerU is always on the wrong side of any argument.  You might as well be citing Kanye West as a source.


BIAS ALERT


Xzi said:


> There are multiple factors at play here.  Yes, large gatherings of any sort put you at increased risk of exposure.  Being outdoors however is a mitigating factor to some degree, and anybody attending protests is deeming it worth the risk.  Churches being closed is on a state-by-state basis, and in many cases churches were closed because churchgoers failed to wear masks OR social distance, causing large outbreaks.  A lot of funeral services are held in churches, so the same applies there, though people who don't want to wait on that sort of thing have been doing outdoor funerals instead.


First amendment.


Xzi said:


> Lastly, in-person voting will also be on a state-by-state basis, but for the life of me I can't think of any good reason why anyone would _want_ to wait hours in line to vote during a pandemic when mail-in/drop-off ballots are so much more convenient and time-saving.


What about "them there rushin' boots" tossing out the "bad" votes?


----------



## Xzi (Aug 2, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> BIAS ALERT


PragerU itself is extremely biased, but I'm sure you were already aware of that.  I'm fine with being biased against biased sources.



UltraSUPRA said:


> First amendment.


What about it?  The protestors in Michigan had no problem exercising their first (and second) amendment rights when they flooded the state capitol building while carrying guns.  The first amendment does NOT give people the right to spread a disease through willful or malicious action.



UltraSUPRA said:


> What about "them there rushin' boots" tossing out the "bad" votes?


Not sure what you're talking about here.  Vote manipulation is far easier with in-person electronic voting than it is with a paper trail.


----------



## UltraSUPRA (Aug 2, 2020)

Xzi said:


> What about it?  The protestors in Michigan had no problem exercising their first (and second) amendment rights when they flooded the state capitol building while carrying guns.  The first amendment does NOT give people the right to spread a disease through willful or malicious action.


The first amendment grants the right to freedom of religious expression.
Neither the first nor second amendments grants the right to arson.


Xzi said:


> Not sure what you're talking about here.  Vote manipulation is far easier with in-person electronic voting than it is with a paper trail.


It's easier to hack into the government than to throw a piece of paper away?


----------



## Xzi (Aug 2, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> The first amendment grants the right to freedom of religious expression.


And religious expression does not require churches to be open.  Services can just as easily be held outdoors or online.



UltraSUPRA said:


> It's easier to hack into the government than to throw a piece of paper away?


Electronic voting machines don't send their data to the government lol, it's stored locally until the votes are counted by the county clerk or local election authority, just like paper ballots are counted.  Hacking conferences have shown that fairly recent revisions of these machines can be hacked in roughly 10 minutes.


----------



## notimp (Aug 2, 2020)

ghostbit said:


> Not even close. I'm not deeply familiar enough to try to claim that RT is totally objective, but it's a little more than a state propaganda venue. Jesse Ventura has a few good stories about his time with the station and how they never tried even slightly to slant or editorialize his content.


I have a Chomsky video somewhere... 


Should be this or part one - here he spell it out more plainly (without much of the impact it has on society - which he usually talks about, when speaking on this topic).. 

Top down influence is seldomely seen in journalism directly.

I see it with Hedges currently.  He just gets this tinsy bit more 'animated' as a result of the environment, but still says what he 'wants'.
-

The not so round about response would be.

1. The assessment comes from this being a russian media outlet that exclusively addresses the western markets, having exactly no importance domestically. (Thats a media strategy thats more or less unseen since the radio liberty days. (Who would even found such a media outlet..  )

2. The leadership of the paper having been seen in close 'demonstrative' societal contact with Putin on anniversal events, and having defended Russian State PR on several occasions, while speaking to ARTE in Interviews. This indicates financing ties (otherwise you dont get Putin to speak at your parties).

That said, not even Radio Liberty did always tell falsehoods, its mostly about the construction of a common narrative - that is slightly off (not that of any western news outlet).
edit: In the video above Chomsky talks about it as "the framework media operates in". So it is the correct video (part2 ). 

I personally see, that much of RTs commentary has a slight of the beat angle. So if you can take the jab against something "wrong with the political system in the west" - you take it. Its as if you are constantly listening to an agent provocateur. Their reporting is mostly boulevard (there are exceptions), so I'm not coming in contact with that much either.

Also - if you look at Rising (Youtube News format of The Hill), they do exactly the same (always playing the agent provocateur angle) - just with less of a 'motivating people to go into even conspiratorial interpretations' (not saying that all of them are bad, but many of them are just an easy version to make sense of a more complex situation) slant. So its not an RT exclusive. Its just something you dont usually see in established news outlets. (And currently, most of them are dying - so mostly the bigger ones remain).

Also if Jesse Ventura (hosts a show on RT) should be somone you trust in as your pundit is out of my judgement.  In my book it always pays to hear different angles on a story.  So dont just pick one. Pick someone that comes at it from a different direction also. 


edit: Alleged RT/Kremlin Ties:
https://www.voanews.com/europe/lithuania-bans-russian-broadcaster-rt-over-kremlin-ties
(src: Reuters)


----------



## ghostbit (Aug 2, 2020)

notimp said:


> I personally see, that much of RTs commentary has a slight of the beat angle. So if you can take the jab against something "wrong with the political system in the west" - you take it. Its as if you are constantly listening to an agent provocateur.


This only logically applies if you give western media a free unbias pass to determine the tone when discussing political systems in the west.


----------



## notimp (Aug 2, 2020)

ghostbit said:


> This only logically applies if you give western media a free unbias pass to determine the tone when discussing political systems in the west.



Imho no. But it reveals a bias on my part. Lets say I see/hear an argument where I think to myself - ok you could voice criticism (of lets say the government) here, but maybe hint at it, or indicate it between the lines, because it is not essential to the main argument at hand.

And I see RT 'punching through always', and building this narrative of 'everything is broken' - I recognize that. Almost no nuance. Almost no weighing of arguments, whenever they see a chance to get to the punchline of 'some system is rotten or broken'.

So the argument I'm making is actually one about methods/style. Thats also why I mentioned The rising, because it has a similar approach.
--

Apart from that two other aspects that I find important:

First:

RT for a long time had a practice of using beautiful women anchors or reporters mixed with 'conspiracy positive' (not addressing any conspiracy in particular, but having sign off phrases like 'keep vigilant', or 'these are the facts you will only see here') attitudes, which was something really not seen as much in the west before, they had a strange kind of appeal, that they constructed several formats on, if I remember correctly. The worst example of that I remember was a report on the european migrant crisis (at its peak) where they sent in an actual model to then do a report on how 'most of those migrants weren't what they'd appear to be', and that the convetional narrative was lying, ..

The woman felt so obviously out of place, not that bright and reading a script, that I actually shuddered.

And this was an actual practice they stuck to for quite some time (see: https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-echochambers-26585033 )

Second:

For most people on most topics (maybe not shortly before your country goes into war, or foreign policy topics, or on complicated domestic topics), it actually is more beneficial to hear a 'tone of a western media outlet discussing western politics' in their own country - compared to 'always' getting a provocative angle.

Still keep watching those provocative outlets as well, by all means (thats what I do - just in another political field..  ), but also at least read or watch a proper mainstream outlet in your country as well. On most topics they actually are trying to report in the interest of the population (thats the thing of 'I'd see no reason to turn to RT on stuff like figures reporting on the Covid crisis') and as a result you arent only getting interpretations where you need someone thats deep into policy discussion to see what angle you might be coming from. So in short - more socially acceptable. Knowing only the edge stuff and nothing about how most people in society will see it for most people will bring more problems, than positives.

(In germany just yesterday 10.000 of them were on the street (protesting against masks) shouting, 'go home media' and 'lying media', more than giving actual arguments.

No one media outlet will give you 'the actual truth'. (NYT at least a few years ago was best at spanning a very broad amount of topics, rather in depth, The Economist, and Financial Times always had in depth reporting on  topics, the Nation, the Atlantic and Vanity Fair, had maybe the best 'Commentating' in the US, for a while (thats over as of  now..  ) -- but none of them or any other outlet is free of any bias. Never was.)

Also - it helps to differenciate between reporting and 'punditry' (someone 'commentating' on 'the news'). If you need somone to tell you 'how to interpret most of what you are reading in reporting' thats still not ideal.


----------



## UltraSUPRA (Aug 4, 2020)

This happened a few days ago.


----------



## notimp (Aug 5, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> This happened a few days ago.


Three words/aspects.
1. Masks
2. 5 feet distance
3. Perspective distortion (lense used by the photographer)
see: https://www.buzzfeed.com/joeydurso/coronavirus-social-distancing-lockdown-photos

For the next two years the first two may be a prerequisite to you being allowed to hold a funeral. Thats the new world.

Not one where "the black elite can have it, and you dont".

See its so easy if you arent populist.. 

(Well filled churches with people engaging in community (singing, embracing, shaking hands, ... are one of the primary vectors of corona spread (if you dont introduce those rules) -- similar story with eating together with friends and relatives after funerals (when you eat, you cant wear masks). In our country (small), where we still are able tro track virus propagation clusters, we had one such cluster recently (the "eating congregation" after a funeral).

Churches in the US afair only were closed when people actively were ignoring the distancing and mask rules. Or were likely to.


----------



## UltraSUPRA (Aug 11, 2020)

Another Facebook meme for the collection.


----------



## Lacius (Aug 11, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> Another Facebook meme for the collection.


What an embarrassingly stupid tweet.

Increased testing, contact tracing, and appropriate physical distancing and mask-wearing are what have always been needed. Increased testing alone isn't sufficient.
The increase in positive tests isn't proportional to increased testing. The positivity rate has increased. To say "we have more positives tests because of increased testing" is a myth.
Nobody wants a a lockdown, social distancing, etc. We want to do what the science says it takes to save lives and get through this pandemic.


----------



## UltraSUPRA (Aug 11, 2020)

Lacius said:


> What an embarrassingly stupid tweet.
> 
> Increased testing, contact tracing, and appropriate physical distancing and mask-wearing are what have always been needed. Increased testing alone isn't sufficient..
> [irrelevant to reply]
> Nobody wants a a lockdown, social distancing, etc. We want to do what the science says it takes to save lives and get through this pandemic.


You believe that safety is more important than freedom?


----------



## Lacius (Aug 11, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> You believe that safety is more important than freedom?


A person's freedoms end where another's begin.

If you want a more specific response from me, you're going to have to be more specific with your question.


----------



## Subtle Demise (Aug 12, 2020)

How about that Sputnik vaccine? First read about it in a Forbes online article yesterday. Most of the article performed some mental gymnastics to describe why it's a bad thing even if it worked. Also some "Russia bad" thrown in for good measure. I think the public enjoys being locked down and getting paid to not work. What a shocker.

I just sit back and don't know whether to laugh or cry at the response to this virus. _Over _99% survival rate. There have been many deadlier diseases since the Spanish Flu over the past 100 years. Maybe I should finally just put on the stupid clown mask because "we live in a society" and all this bullshit about "tHe NeW NOrmAl" is all part of some made-up social contract I never fucking signed. Screw your masks, screw your social distancing, screw your purposeful decimation of entire industries. I don't consent to any of it.


----------



## notimp (Aug 26, 2020)

@FAST6191 apparently was correct. 

According to Didier Sornette ('complex systems expert'), difference between countries adhering to public measures (mask wearing) 'very responsibly' and countries which are adhering to them 'somewhat' is about 100 deaths per million (almost nothing).

Also complete shutdowns statistically seem to only make sense if you catch the virus in its first week of propagation. After that (i.e. the US in all scenarios  ) not so much.. 

At current (switzerland) rates of progression we are looking at 30 years until heard immunity - and 'vaccination' might not be the technological 'one shot' solution its made out to be, looking at it from a long term perspective (first person who contracted the virus a second time after afair 5 months was reported a few days ago) and the virus is mutating.. 

src: Some of his future books, probably.  (An interview that isnt linkable after the fact.)


----------



## UltraSUPRA (Aug 26, 2020)

notimp said:


> @FAST6191 apparently was correct.
> 
> According to Didier Sornette ('complex systems expert'), difference between countries adhering to public measures (mask wearing) 'very responsibly' and countries which are adhering to them 'somewhat' is about 100 deaths per million (almost nothing).
> 
> ...


So when are we going to go back to normal?


----------



## notimp (Aug 27, 2020)

According to that professor any time we want because the thing will stick around for a while and his view was influenced by deaths as a result of food production having been reduced and other factors like that that arent in any national leaders playbook, because they might not happen in country.

He basicaklly favored a pathway to reach heard immunity eventually, and sooner rather than later (30 years in switzerland at the current infection numbers). Asked about swedens path (was it 'better' or 'worse' than what the rest of the EU did, he stated that it would be too early to tell statistically. That should give you an idea of where he was coming from.

He also stated, that this got him into heated discussions with national health experts who brought up having to prevent hospitals running over capacity.

So in reality probably some time after the vaccines hit. EU is managing allocation (and financing production by overbooking) and has written conditional orders for afair more than 100 mio doses. Assessment of the EU coordinator (who also was in Alpbach) was, that ultimately they dont know if they need 200 mio doses or 1 billion doses. (MIght be hinting at mutations being part of the risk assessment).

The complex systems expert explicitly stated, that the virus is mutating and media isnt picking that up for headline storys. (Dont blame media, think about their responsibility.)

Thats all of the 'new stuff' I picked up so far. And a bunch about recovery funds allocation within the EU.

edit: Oh and vaccines should hit in western countries at the end of the year, maybe. But then allocation and getting much of your population the vaccine also isnt instant and produces challenges.


----------



## notimp (Sep 9, 2020)

Trump blabbing away opinions that werent meant for the press, and a few national secrets:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/09/politics/bob-woodward-rage-book-trump-coronavirus/index.html


----------



## Taleweaver (Sep 10, 2020)

notimp said:


> Trump blabbing away opinions that werent meant for the press, and a few national secrets:
> https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/09/politics/bob-woodward-rage-book-trump-coronavirus/index.html


Erm...Trump talking to Bob Woodward is about as much "talking to the press" as you can possibly get.

But I'll admit I'm honestly surprised he not only openly told what everyone already knew (1) but that he wilfully let it be audio-taped by one of the reporters that brought down Nixon...in election year.

What's next...Trump openly admitting he wanted the virus to spread because that would make Putin happy? 


Anyhow: those that parotted Trump's public statements that the corona virus was a democrat hoax can now give up and admit they were trolled.



(1): okay, okay...not everyone. Intelligence had told the press that they informed the president about covid after Trump claimed that "nobody could know how bad it would become". But that sort of news was touted as "a democrat hoax", so Trump's fanboys ignored it.


----------



## notimp (Sep 10, 2020)

He also 'shared' a nuclear secret, or intentionally leaked..  Whole lot of nothing burger (no substance), but funny as well.. 

Here for people that dont read text anymore:


----------



## notimp (Sep 12, 2020)

> According to a poll released on Wednesday by National Public Radio, 56% of households in Los Angeles, a city of just under 4 million people and the heart of a metropolitan area of over 13 million, have experienced serious financial problems during the pandemic. "The number of people who are hungry and call for help has increased immensely," said Michael Flood, president and CEO of the Los Angeles Regional Food Bank. He said such distribution efforts were a common form of disaster relief in the United States.





> Before the pandemic, the Los Angeles Regional Food Bank, with the support of other organizations, provided groceries to about 300,000 people a month. The number is now 900,000.


https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-pandemic-has-many-down-and-out-in-los-angeles/a-54901463


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## UltraSUPRA (Sep 13, 2020)

94% of all Coronavirus deaths were from people with other, equally terminal illnesses at the same time.


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## UltraSUPRA (Sep 14, 2020)

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...h-showing-coronavirus-originated-in-wuhan-lab


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## notimp (Sep 14, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...h-showing-coronavirus-originated-in-wuhan-lab


Here is a written down excerpt from the original source:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/...ish-evidence-PROVING-coronavirus-manmade.html

No proof produced yet, but lets keep a search filter on her, just for good measure.. 



--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------



UltraSUPRA said:


> 94% of all Coronavirus deaths were from people with other, equally terminal illnesses at the same time.


BS.







src: https://towardsdatascience.com/covid-19-comorbidities-are-the-elephant-in-the-room-7d185bd6cfe2

BS mostly for 'equally terminal illness'.

Comorbidities are:


> 399 (25.1%) reported having at least one comorbidity. The most prevalent comorbidity was hypertension (16.9%), followed by diabetes (8.2%). 130 (8.2%) patients reported having two or more comorbidities. After adjusting for age and smoking status, COPD (HR (95% CI) 2.681 (1.424–5.048)), diabetes (1.59 (1.03–2.45)), hypertension (1.58 (1.07–2.32)) and malignancy (3.50 (1.60–7.64)) were risk factors of reaching the composite end-points.


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7098485/

So high blood pressure and diabetes, are some of the most prominent ones.


----------



## notimp (Sep 14, 2020)

On the Dr. Li-Meng Yan thing.

She tried to publish the information since january of this year, her first channel of outreach was a popular chinese youtuber, that apparently published the story already, although in chinese, her channel of outreach to the english speaking world is a british gossip format, and she shows signs of severe emotional stress ("I want to get as much of it out to the world, before I get disappeared.") According to her, she is working on publishing the evidence with 'top scientists in the US'.
(Also something to look into after the fact.)

Her claim of original involvement was to have been sent onto a non disclosed mission to track the propagation of the virus in china in december of last year, and she reported the results to an independent advisor to the WHO, who then chose to not report them on.

edit: Better writeup:
https://theprint.in/world/covid-vir...kong-virologist-says-she-has-evidence/502237/

edit: She toured the FOX news circuit once before:


> Earlier in July 2020 as well, in an interview to _Fox News_, Li-Meng had claimed that the Chinese authorities knew about the coronavirus outbreak in December last year yet they chose to remain silent about it.



edit2:
Original FOX news interview:
https://www.foxnews.com/world/chinese-virologist-coronavirus-cover-up-flee-hong-kong-whistleblower

I want to find the 'original youtuber' outreach stuff published in january, but so far no luck. 

edit: Public conference thingy she did edit: on the third of this month:
https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/...meng_yan_3_phd_chinese_scientists_4991ratg13/

And yes, down the rabbit hole analysis of her theory can be found there, thanks to redditers. 
--


----------



## Tomobobo (Sep 14, 2020)

Does anyone here have any data related to the effectiveness of masks and social distancing?  I can't seem to correlate any major influences from either of those strategies.

Seems to me the goalposts keep moving.  First it was all a panic about 2-4 MILLION USA people who were going to keel over.  Then it was about doctors getting overwhelmed because hospital beds?  Then it was about asymptomatic people killing grannies.  Now they're on some numbers game in test results?

The info about the comorbidities is interesting for sure, though any and all of the numbers people are charting up are so meaningless no matter how many you look at or try to graph out. They for sure wouldn't have had the same paralyzing fear effect of the original MILLIONS quotes.

I can't believe we're still going through this shit.  My governor just extended the mandatory masker rule 30 more days.

Over time many of my irl peers have gone from shaking in their boots about the varus to just being generally numb about the whole thing.  At first it was a large majority of my friends who thought everyone was gonna die and that we could actually have some effect in our actions.  Now it seems the majority think it's a farce.  The news and social media seem to still be spreading fear in full force though, so staring at your little screen it looks grim.

Really would like some info on the effectiveness of the masks and social distancing cause it seems to me that's the most we could have ever done to combat something like they projected, and idk if it really worked.  If it did work why are we still wearing masks, and if it didn't, why are we still wearing them?  Looking at random numbers from numerous sources that don't add up to each other it looks like we're over the peak of this thing.  During the peak of the deaths in USA my state was in complete lockdown like it was a ghost town for 2-4 weeks.  That had to be the most effective thing we could have done.  I don't know what 2ft of plexiglass hanging from a string does, but I'm guessing not much.  

It's like simultaneously and collectively the world gave up on logic and reason.  Sure the doomsday scenario looks scary, and humans are pretty good at perseverance and determination so we wouldn't take any kind of apocalypse just laying down, but some of the stuff is just silly.

I wear. a. mask. in public because I don't wanna get into debates with people and end up as a karen on the internet, plus the whole "law" stuff.  Though I do wish I could tell more people to question the effectiveness of lockdowns.  I'm pretty sure we're doing all this stuff based on some rudimentary virus simulation program coded up by experts in virology.  

I do hope it's over before too long, as it drags on it seems more and more likely that it wasn't ever about a virus or saving people but trying to control them and manipulate them to influence lawmaking, and worldwide too.  If it was a real actual pandemic the numbers just haven't been that scary looking to me, as cold as it might sound to say.  I kinda have the feeling though that if an actual real human destroying virus were to show up, stuff like masks and going through the drive through isn't gonna save us.  We're too connected to each other.  Even the extreme fear mongering people I know in real life they don't wear the mask in their house and they see their friends and family in not socially distanced interactions on the regular.  Putting a mask on sometimes isn't gonna save us from an actual super virus.  I'm skeptical about all this shit.


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## notimp (Sep 14, 2020)

Went down the rabbit hole - here is the report.

- Reddit channel that is promoting this is /r/China_Flu/ which - is political. 
- Guy hosting the youtube conference on the third of september, is completely disinterested in the material - when people are speaking english, shows microexpressions of 'cynical laughter' followed by complete boredom, but then switches to 'shoutcaster' mode (very enthused), as soon as he has to moderate in chinese again.
- Dr Li-Meng Yan, pushes an agenda where she is more interested in telling the world, where there are fake news, where there is 'tha truth', where there is 'mixed reporting' which confuses people, where CCP party involvement ensures, that only one side of scientists is heard, where she promotes, we are the scientists, we speak chinese, we can tell the world whats true... and so on. So 90% of what she is bringing is actually story telling. Which is never a good sign, for someone that actually wants to 'prove' something.
src: h**ps://youtu.be/QokZ392yxLc?t=4700
- reddit channel /r/China_Flew/ features her for almost exactly one month now - but during that month very intensely. Which is odd, since she showed up on Fox in June, and apparently on chinese Youtube in january first (still havent found that appearance).

And most importantly:

All 'evidene' brought in that hour long youtube conference between scientists - is circumstantial. All of it. The argument is not a bad one - stating, that china and the CCP dont have an airtight case for mapping out 'natural progression of that virus from bat to human' (see also: https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/isr6ba/scientists_claim_serious_data_discrepancies_in/ ), and that afair time magazine copied some of those 'leniencies' and didnt investigate them further - but thats one thing, and making a one and a half hour show out of it is another.
-

All of that screams crackpot.
Most of that screams manufactured.

Rhetorics are circular, attack the thing thats most easily attacked ('no airtight proof'), and prep up an agenda (are more about 'telling a story' than about proving a point).
-


Talking about proving a point - the Dr has actually released her 'proof' by now, and /r/China_Flu/ seemingly are amongst the first to feature it. 

Here:
https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/islmky/limeng_yan_unusual_features_of_the_sarscov2/

Have fun. 

What I saw in the video above, smells like a disinformation campaign. 

edit: The chinese blogger in the US she released to in january is Mr uninterested and bored, with cynical facial expressions from above (according to FOX news in june), so you already have the channel linked in here.

edit2: Effing FOX underlayed the june clip with mood sounds, and packed in a produced human interest package (I felt very scared, my husband was very scared, here is a wedding photo, I knew at every step in the airport, that it could be over, ...).

edit: News of the report got no traction on ycombinator:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24471498 
edit: second ycombinator link:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24477045

edit: Limeng Yan immediately framed a ddos (traffic spike) to the preprint website as "it being hacked" (if that is her account, but also - in general, that framing did happen):
https://twitter.com/LiMengYAN119/status/1305509269018759169

edit: Google for the release link is extremely interesting imho:
https://www.google.com/search?q=https://zenodo.org/record/4028830

Shows in what communities the story is seeded.

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------



Tomobobo said:


> Does anyone here have any data related to the effectiveness of masks and social distancing? I can't seem to correlate any major influences from either of those strategies.


Masks yes, social distancing - no.

Masks:


Because you can determine how big the virus is (size), an therefore how effective certain types of masks are - but you cant infect groups of people with Covid just to see how well social distancing works.  Roughly.

People already had a hard time coming to conclusions if transmission is airborn or just mukus based. 

We know that social distancing works though. Because we see clusters where people cant/wont social distance. (Meat processing plants, churches, private festivities, families...)

(You need a proper exposure to it for 15 minutes, to have a high chance of being affected apparently, which is why in supermarkets mostly employees get it, that are exposed to it throughout the day (you can find studies on that too)).


edit: See also: https://www.news-medical.net/news/2...velops-a-prediction-model-for-SARS-CoV-2.aspx

referencing:


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## UltraSUPRA (Sep 15, 2020)




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## slaphappygamer (Sep 15, 2020)

Josh hammer is an idiot. The lockdown was to slow the spread of the virus, which worked. That would, in turn, relieve hospitals. Which it did. Notice that the virus has gotten worse since the lockdown was lifted? Another lockdown should be enforced, since some think that the virus is over and don’t wear masks anymore. If you don’t want to wear a mask, you should stay home. The mask isn’t for YOU. It’s for US.


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## UltraSUPRA (Sep 15, 2020)

slaphappygamer said:


> Josh hammer is an idiot. The lockdown was to slow the spread of the virus, which worked. That would, in turn, relieve hospitals. Which it did. Notice that the virus has gotten worse since the lockdown was lifted? Another lockdown should be enforced, since some think that the virus is over and don’t wear masks anymore. If you don’t want to wear a mask, you should stay home. The mask isn’t for YOU. It’s for US.


"You're not tearing off your ears for your own safety. You're tearing off your ears for the safety of strangers -- people you don't know or care about, and will likely survive COVID even if they do get it."


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## slaphappygamer (Sep 16, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> "You're not tearing off your ears for your own safety. You're tearing off your ears for the safety of strangers -- people you don't know or care about, and will likely survive COVID even if they do get it."


Who tweeted that? Lol


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## UltraSUPRA (Sep 16, 2020)

slaphappygamer said:


> Who tweeted that? Lol


Nobody.


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## Sicklyboy (Sep 16, 2020)

Is "tearing off your ears" an allegory or is that supposed to be a way to try to sound smart and serious while really just bitching and moaning that masks are mildly uncomfortable?


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## UltraSUPRA (Sep 16, 2020)

Sicklyboy said:


> Is "tearing off your ears" an allegory or is that supposed to be a way to try to sound smart and serious while really just bitching and moaning that masks are mildly uncomfortable?


While I _will_ say that it _is_ hyperbole, masks still hurt.


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## Deleted member 412537 (Sep 16, 2020)

Eh, the mask panties only caused pain for me once when it was too tight on the ears while wearing glasses.  nowadays I don't really have that problem anymore. As time passes,I guess having to maintain wearing a new pair of panties over and over again [or washing the reusable ones] while navigating flu season may turn up a bit difficult to master without become too frustrated with whats expected of us.


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## UltraSUPRA (Sep 16, 2020)

yummycake said:


> Eh, the mask panties only caused pain for me once when it was too tight on the ears while wearing glasses.  nowadays I don't really have that problem anymore. As time passes,I guess having to maintain wearing a new pair of panties over and over again [or washing the reusable ones] while navigating flu season may turn up a bit difficult to master without become too frustrated with whats expected of us.


I'm tired of people comparing wearing a mask (which can cause physical pain on the wars and eyes) to clothing (a natural instinct ever since Eve at the apple).


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## Deleted member 412537 (Sep 16, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> I'm tired of people comparing wearing a mask (which can cause physical pain on the wars and eyes) to clothing (a natural instinct ever since Eve at the apple).


Don't start with me little boy.
I said what I said.
Be gone.


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## Sicklyboy (Sep 16, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> I'm tired of people comparing wearing a mask (which can cause physical pain on the wars and eyes)



If your mask is causing pain to your ears, get a mask that fits better.
If your mask is causing pain to your eyes, take it off of your fucking eyes, dumbass, it doesn't go there.

I've been wearing a mask for 8 hours a day at work since probably April, 5 days a week, sometimes on construction sites. I've work a mask for 8 hour flights. It's a mild discomfort at best, nothing that picking the loop up and rubbing the back of your ears for a second or two won't fix. Grow up.


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## UltraSUPRA (Sep 16, 2020)

yummycake said:


> Don't start with me little boy.
> I said what I said.
> Be gone.


No.

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------



Sicklyboy said:


> If your mask is causing pain to your ears, get a mask that fits better.
> If your mask is causing pain to your eyes, take it off of your fucking eyes, dumbass, it doesn't go there.
> 
> I've been wearing a mask for 8 hours a day at work since probably April, 5 days a week, sometimes on construction sites. I've work a mask for 8 hour flights. It's a mild discomfort at best, nothing that picking the loop up and rubbing the back of your ears for a second or two won't fix. Grow up.


Good for you, you're an adult who goes outside and has a job. I'm none of those things.


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## Deleted member 412537 (Sep 16, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> No.


K.
[I'm still pleased to have contributed to this thread.]


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## Sicklyboy (Sep 16, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> Good for you, you're an adult who goes outside and has a job. I'm none of those things.



Yep. And by the sounds of your reply there are significantly more opportunities where I'd have to wear a mask than you do, yet I'm not the one complaining about them because _they're not that big of a deal_. They are a mild inconvenience at best worst.


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## UltraSUPRA (Sep 16, 2020)

Sicklyboy said:


> Yep. And by the sounds of your reply there are significantly more opportunities where I'd have to wear a mask than you do, yet I'm not the one complaining about them because _they're not that big of a deal_. They are a mild inconvenience at best worst.


You got used to them.


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## KingVamp (Sep 16, 2020)

Unless you are sick already, your mask shouldn't be getting messy. Getting a properly fitted mask should solves all your problems.


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## PZT (Sep 16, 2020)

Sicklyboy said:


> If your mask is causing pain to your ears, get a mask that fits better.
> If your mask is causing pain to your eyes, take it off of your fucking eyes, dumbass, it doesn't go there.
> 
> I've been wearing a mask for 8 hours a day at work since probably April, 5 days a week, sometimes on construction sites. I've work a mask for 8 hour flights. It's a mild discomfort at best, nothing that picking the loop up and rubbing the back of your ears for a second or two won't fix. Grow up.


Counterpoint: people on the autism spectrum can't ignore sensory irritations like that, why do you think they cut the tags off the inside of their clothes, it's ableist to say it's a mild discomfort at best for everybody, for you maybe


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## Sicklyboy (Sep 16, 2020)

PZT said:


> Counterpoint: people on the autism spectrum can't ignore sensory irritations like that, why do you think they cut the tags off the inside of their clothes, it's ableist to say it's a mild discomfort at best for everybody, for you maybe



Sure, that's a very valid counterpoint. However I would be hard-pressed to believe that the overwhelming majority of people complaining about masks are on the spectrum or have a sensory processing disorder or the likes, with the unifying characteristic instead being that the complaints are coming largely from people aligning with a conservative/Republican political ideology, at least as far as the US goes. 

I have friends on the spectrum who have told me their success stories with different fabric types or other things like spacers that help to pull the mask off of your mouth. I'm not on the spectrum myself so I can't confirm their anecdotes, and I also am well aware there is no one-size-fits-all solution. Generally speaking though, I stand by my opinion due to my reasons outlined above and previously, in most circumstances.


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## UltraSUPRA (Sep 16, 2020)

PZT said:


> Counterpoint: people on the autism spectrum can't ignore sensory irritations like that, why do you think they cut the tags off the inside of their clothes, it's ableist to say it's a mild discomfort at best for everybody, for you maybe


Autism? Well, I wouldn't be surprised.


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## notimp (Sep 16, 2020)

PZT said:


> Counterpoint: people on the autism spectrum can't ignore sensory irritations like that, why do you think they cut the tags off the inside of their clothes, it's ableist to say it's a mild discomfort at best for everybody, for you maybe


Desensitization training, it works. *snark*  And is PC!


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## UltraSUPRA (Sep 16, 2020)

Don't reply until you've watched the video. Claiming that PragerU is unreliable is no excuse, and also a lie. He uses sources from the CDC.


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## notimp (Sep 16, 2020)

Come on UltraPRHansel, even you reading this forum knew the real number was below 1Mio deaths worldwide... Reported.

Issue - its sustained. So US will reach 250.000 this year (which could be 1/3s higher in real numbers), which is 7% of your yearly birth rate.. 

Now, the death number is likely to fall 'naturally', once most old people have gone, but until then... 
Also, with it raging on, life expectancy for most people would decrease.

To put it in perspective you dont ask people percentage of population that had died within a year (because people dont think in lower that 1% fractions of very large numbers, their 'feels based math' usually completely collapses, past 10.000 anything. Most people cant even conceptualize 1000 of something. (Which is why you have the right wing discussions about our demo was 10k people, no it was only 1k, lier, cheat, ... and so on..  ), you compare it with wars:
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/04/coronavirus-death-toll-vietnam-war-cvd/

Another way to show you just how completely stupid you are - a real mark for every disinformation peddler in town - is state reaction. If this were 'nothing' - would the US have spent 6 trillion USD (open ended), to combat the economic effects of virus mitigation measures? How dumb are you?

You are not pretty dumb, you are outrageously dumb, or you are a 'better be payed' troll. After about three months of activity we need a poll here - how many people trust in your judgement. Because usualy NOTHING you post has any substance to it. Its like having the dumbest kid in school running the debate club.

I want to ignore you so freaking bad. But I cant - because other people might be half as stupid as your claims, and then believe your effing propaganda.

And dont try to play the 'source blamed unfairly game' you know your source featured the dumbest PR possible - but you excused them with 'this time, they use CDC numbers!'


----------



## notimp (Sep 16, 2020)

Also the 'hospitals have an incentive to call them covid deaths so they get more funding from the state' 'yes they do' interaction is an UTTER LIE.

edit: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/hospital-payments-and-the-covid-19-death-count/
Also - hospitals still loose money on medicare Covid patient treatments, so additional funds have to step in.

If you had a heart problem, or diabetes, or high blood pressure, and COVID killed you. COVID killed you.

If you had  a heart problem, or diabetes, or high blood pressure, and a car killed you, .... you finish that sentence.

If you cant stop posting propaganda, hold your breath until you can. Maybe that helps.


----------



## UltraSUPRA (Sep 16, 2020)

notimp said:


> Also the 'hospitals have an incentive to call them covid deaths so they get more funding from the state' 'yes they do' interaction is an UTTER LIE.
> 
> If you had a heart problem, or diabetes, or high blood pressure, and COVID killed you. COVID killed you.
> 
> If you had  a heart problem, or diabetes, or high blood pressure, and a car killed you, .... you finish that sentence.


You can't compare the two. You wouldn't survive the car crash regardless. If you got COVID without the other medical issues, you'd likely survive.


----------



## notimp (Sep 16, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> You can't compare the two. You wouldn't survive the car crash regardless. If you got COVID without the other medical issues, you'd likely survive.


Idiot.

Why? Because - you then can still believe in your statement?

This is the stupidest form of creating a strawman I've seen in my life.


Covid din't kill those people - it was THEIR LIFESTYLE?!

See first word in this posting.

Take a clue from the factchecking website.
Take a clue from this being standard reporting procedure.
Take a clue from even ENTIRELY unrelated, usually preventable, deaths from hospitals being over capacity being caused by Covid, if 90% of the people flooding in, in a specific week show Covid symptoms (which a few other countries used as metrics).
Take a clue from people using overmortality as the only 'true' structural way to look at Covid deathtolls.

Now that you know, that people need 'footballstadiums' and 'bathtubs' as measures of large quantities, because their 'felt' reference systems just fail on large numbers of anything - I dont want to see you posting such disgusting jaywalking 'gotcha' propaganda ever again. Thats the main thing.

At the beginning of next year you will hear, that more people in the US died from Covid-19 than in World War 2. Merry Christmas.


----------



## notimp (Sep 16, 2020)

Here are the CDCs overmortality numbers:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

And dont forget to look at New York City at 5x the normal deathrate in the weeks before social distancing measures hit.

Most important measure?

People showing symptoms, not going to work anymore (almost halfs your infection rate). After that comes mask wearing in crowded places.


----------



## UltraSUPRA (Sep 17, 2020)

notimp said:


> Covid din't kill those people - it was THEIR LIFESTYLE?!


Their lifestyle is more or less responsible for their death, yes. If they didn't have to go to the hospital, they wouldn't have caught COVID, and if they caught it without those underlying issues, they'd have likely survived.


notimp said:


> Take a clue from even ENTIRELY unrelated, usually preventable, deaths from hospitals being over capacity being caused by Covid, if 90% of the people flooding in, in a specific week show Covid symptoms (which a few other countries used as metrics).


Build another hospital and have it be strictly for COVID.


notimp said:


> Take a clue from people using overmortality as the only 'true' structural way to look at Covid deathtolls.


Heh. "Overmortality". You really think that not everyone is going to catch it. Cute.


----------



## notimp (Sep 17, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> Their lifestyle is more or less responsible for their death, yes. If they didn't have to go to the hospital, they wouldn't have caught COVID, and if they caught it without those underlying issues, they'd have likely survived.


Hey hows your strawman doing today? Have you enjoyed breakfast yet? What did kill them today? Them eating bad? Not jogging enough?

Or was it just their age? (If you are older you have mor preexisting conditions)? Should have done more yoga then. Bought more anti agng cream.

Every post of yours.... Take a clue. Or better, take a hike. So you dont die from Covid.


----------



## UltraSUPRA (Sep 17, 2020)

notimp said:


> Hey hows your strawman doing today? Have you enjoyed breakfast yet? What did kill them today? Them eating bad? Not jogging enough?
> 
> Or was it just their age? (If you are older you have mor preexisting conditions)? Should have done more yoga then. Bought more anti agng cream.
> 
> Every post of yours.... Take a clue. Or better, take a hike. So you dont die from Covid.


Are you saying they would have died if they caught Winnie the Flu whether they had those underlying conditions or not?


----------



## notimp (Sep 17, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> Are you saying they would have died if they caught Winnie the Flu whether they had those underlying conditions or not?


Hey, you are doing your own Trump impression! How cute!

In the United States, *36.5 percent* of adults are obese. Another *32.5 percent* of American adults are overweight. So your proposal against Covid-19 is a diet?

Military bootcamps?


----------



## UltraSUPRA (Sep 17, 2020)

notimp said:


> Hey, you are doing your own Trump impression! How cute!
> 
> In the United States, *36.5 percent* of adults are obese. Another *32.5 percent* of American adults are overweight. So your proposal against Covid-19 is a diet?
> 
> Military bootcamps?


I would never enforce something I wouldn't want to do myself. My proposal is going back to normal. If you're at a very high risk, it's of course recommended to stay home, but don't enforce it. *You* decide if *you* want to protect *yourself.*


----------



## notimp (Sep 17, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> I would never enforce something I wouldn't want to do myself. My proposal is going back to normal. If you're at a very high risk, it's of course recommended to stay home, but don't enforce it. *You* decide if *you* want to protect *yourself.*


Laissez faire?

Oh, you know - today I dont feel like it.

Let the elderly fend for themselves. In isolation. 5x spike in mortality in NY? Well, whatcha gonna do? Social distancing? optional, really. Masks? Only if you love wearing them.

US has 7x the deaths per million compared to germany. I didnt know you could be more laissez faire. To be fair though, US also had about half the economical recession.

So 7x more deaths half the economic harm, ... Yeah, checks out.
--

If you werent such an idiot, you would at least acknowledge, that social distancing and mask wearing is here to stay, maybe for the next 2-5 years. In some form. If you had any trust in your political leaders, which obviously you dont have. Because its freaking low effort and you prevent a loss of lives equivalent to a World War every two years.

But no - first you burry your intellect in a semantic argument (Covid doesnt kill people, cars do), then your brilliant idea to solve the issue is to do nothing. Bank on peoples initiatives.

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------

Oh and self isolation only if you feel like it?



> A spokesman for the US military in Bavaria on Thursday confirmed it was carrying out its own investigation into a 26-year-old woman suspected of flouting coronavirus and already facing charges from local prosecutors.
> 
> The woman, a US national, works at the Edelweiss Lodge and Resort in the picturesque Alpine town of Garmisch-Partenkirchen, situated at the foot of Germany's tallest mountain, the Zugspitze.
> 
> ...


https://www.dw.com/en/us-army-probe...-at-military-ski-resort-in-bavaria/a-54954950

Was that your girlfriend?


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## UltraSUPRA (Sep 17, 2020)

notimp said:


> Laissez faire?
> 
> Oh, you know - today I dont feel like it.
> 
> ...


_"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."_
-Benjamin Franklin​


----------



## Sicklyboy (Sep 17, 2020)

What "essential liberty" is being/has been given up


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## UltraSUPRA (Sep 17, 2020)

Sicklyboy said:


> What "essential liberty" is being/has been given up


Speech, religious expression, and movement.


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## Sicklyboy (Sep 17, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> Speech, religious expression, and movement.



How? Please defend your position.


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## UltraSUPRA (Sep 17, 2020)

Sicklyboy said:


> How? Please defend your position.


Speech - It's harder to hear people when they're wearing masks.
Religious expression - Churches are being shut down by the government.
Movement - Some people want another lockdown.

This is starting to feel Orwellian. A disease is no reason to destroy the economy. You've got to crack a few eggs to make a big freedom omelet. Freedom is infinitely more important than safety. My rights don't end where your fear begins. Look at Sweden. Look at South Dakota. They're doing great. Open up.


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## notimp (Sep 18, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> _"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."_
> -Benjamin Franklin​


Essential liberty to what? Not wear facemasks? Like the southeastasian countries did for years? Not to mingle with potentially infected people during a plague too closely?

Not to loose that argument to hyperbole, we all are lucky, that Covid-19 is only around 10-20 times more problematic than seasonal flu, but the first thing that comes to mind is, that there is a special wing of the cemetery, reserved for the 'Ebola? Whats ebola?" kind.

An epidemic is kind of an extraordinary event, thats bound to change rules a little. You can change them back afterwards.


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## UltraSUPRA (Sep 18, 2020)

notimp said:


> Not to loose that argument to hyperbole, we all are lucky, that Covid-19 is only around 10-20 times more problematic than seasonal flu, but the first thing that comes to mind is, that there is a special wing of the cemetery, reserved for the 'Ebola? Whats ebola?" kind.


I'm not saying that the Coronavirus doesn't exist. I'm saying it's being blown ridiculously out of proportion. On Sundays and Mondays, the daily COVID deaths here in the US don't even hit five hundred.


notimp said:


> An epidemic is kind of an extraordinary event, thats bound to change rules a little. You can change them back afterwards.


If you give your rights up, you don't get them back.


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## Sicklyboy (Sep 18, 2020)

Bro I can't even get over the fact that your "omg my right to speech is being infringed" is that you MIGHT have to talk a little louder.

Like holy shit L M F A O.


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## pleasehelpme2 (Sep 18, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> Speech - It's harder to hear people when they're wearing masks.
> Religious expression - Churches are being shut down by the government.
> Movement - Some people want another lockdown.
> 
> This is starting to feel Orwellian. A disease is no reason to destroy the economy. You've got to crack a few eggs to make a big freedom omelet. Freedom is infinitely more important than safety. My rights don't end where your fear begins. Look at Sweden. Look at South Dakota. They're doing great. Open up.


What's the point of freedom if you just die


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## notimp (Sep 18, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> I'm not saying that the Coronavirus doesn't exist. I'm saying it's being blown ridiculously out of proportion. On Sundays and Mondays, the daily COVID deaths here in the US don't even hit five hundred.


But part of what makes it possible to give that statement is people in NY fe. quarantining the heck out of themselves..  (At least when realizing they have it.)

Not saying that the swedish model (pretty laissez faire) is out of the question, but it still implements behavioral changes, where needed. Which means, dont listen to the 'its nothing' folks either, they are also wrong.

And part of why it is blown out of proportion (not really (as in factual reporting still a thing) but in some peoples perceptions is, because there are days where its all there is in the news) - is that people realize that some changes kind of are needed. Selectively if you want, only in certain cities, at certain times, but nevertheless.


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## omgcat (Sep 18, 2020)

still can't believe that Herman Cain didn't get the "COVID is a liberal hoax" memo.


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## Sicklyboy (Sep 18, 2020)

pleasehelpme2 said:


> What's the point of freedom if you just die



I think that viewpoint could be a slippery slope, tbh. I could counter that with "is life worth living if you're not free?"

Speaking from a directly US-centric viewpoint - There's a pretty well understood idea of what "freedom" is. There are "freedoms" written into our Constitution and Bill of Rights.

What I don't understand, though, is how during a global pandemic, being asked to be compassionate for the health and wellbeing of your fellow countrymen by wearing a mask that all science points to the fact that it SHOULD reduce transmission rates to an appreciable degree, is giving up your freedom.

Choosing not to do so is selfish and self-centered. There's no mask police. I'm not aware of a single instance of someone being jailed for simply not wearing a mask. In many cases they're trespassed from establishments, because businesses also have the right to not serve you. In some cases in the US people may be fined but in the VAST majority of cases that I've seen, if not all, that's because the person is also causing issues, being a public nuisance, harassing people, etc.

If someone would like to challenge that with verifiable facts though, then please, I'm legitimately open to it.


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## UltraSUPRA (Sep 18, 2020)

Sicklyboy said:


> What I don't understand, though, is how during a global pandemic, being asked to be compassionate for the health and wellbeing of your fellow countrymen by wearing a mask that all science points to the fact that it SHOULD reduce transmission rates to an appreciable degree, is giving up your freedom.


"I can't comprehend how, under the looming threat of a form of the common cold, the government telling you to cause physical harm to your face for the "safety" and "comfort" of strangers (information acquired from the same sources that claim that there are more than two genders) is considered overstepping its boundaries."


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## omgcat (Sep 18, 2020)

well, the way this scenario has played out is not too surprising. the brain drain over the last 20 years has taken a serious toll on America. Most of the highly educated have been leaving the USA for better countries for a while. we have finally hit the maximum concentration of smart people leaving, and stupid people claiming that education is indoctrination. as a result, we have suffered far worse than any other country in the world so far, as a result of our new distrust in science; and limp-dicked leadership. Smart people who are wearing masks are having their effort undone by dumb and selfish people all over the place. bet you can't guess which states have had the most brain drain in the last 3.5 years.

https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/i...ur-minds-brain-drain-across-the-united-states


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## UltraSUPRA (Sep 18, 2020)

omgcat said:


> well, the way this scenario has played out is not too surprising. the brain drain over the last 3 years has taken a serious toll on America. Most of the highly educated have been leaving the USA for better countries for a while. we have finally hit the maximum concentration of smart people leaving, and stupid people claiming that education is indoctrination. as a result, we have suffered far worse than any other country in the world so far, as a result of our new distrust in science; and limp-dicked leadership. Smart people who are wearing masks are having their effort undone by dumb and selfish people all over the place. bet you can't guess which states have had the most brain drain in the last 3.5 years.
> 
> https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/i...ur-minds-brain-drain-across-the-united-states


Speaking of which, remember when Nancy Pelosi told a hair salon (which shut down because of her) that she was going to get her hair done there without a mask?


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## Sicklyboy (Sep 18, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> "I can't comprehend how, under the looming threat of a form of the common cold, the government telling you to cause physical harm to your face for the "safety" and "comfort" of strangers (information acquired from the same sources that claim that there are more than two genders) is considered overstepping its boundaries."



Harm to your face?

Uh... what???

Edit - I know you're just trolling. But man, sometimes I just HAVE to take the bait.


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## UltraSUPRA (Sep 18, 2020)

Sicklyboy said:


> Harm to your face?
> 
> Uh... what???
> 
> Edit - I know you're just trolling. But man, sometimes I just HAVE to take the bait.


If I wear it properly (that's a big 'if'), the mask will slide up my nose and poke my eyes.


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## notimp (Sep 18, 2020)

Here are the deathfigures sorted as deceased per million (last row on the right), just to show you what you are striving for in the US with a call for even less restrictions:







and here are US daily Covid-19 deaths since the start of the epidemic:




src: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us

...but on monday they werent so high?


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## Sicklyboy (Sep 18, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> If I wear it properly (that's a big 'if'), the mask will slide up my nose and poke my eyes.



Wow this is so sad. Alexa, play Despacito.


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## UltraSUPRA (Sep 18, 2020)

Sicklyboy said:


> Wow this is so sad. Alexa, play Despacito.


It doesn't matter. The law shouldn't directly be causing physical harm to undeniably innocent people.


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## Sicklyboy (Sep 18, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> It doesn't matter. The law shouldn't directly be causing physical harm to undeniably innocent people.



What laws? I haven't seen a single law regarding masks. Executive orders, plenty. Laws, no.

Also, do you like... not readjust your mask if it starts riding up, do you just let it go into your eyes and then complain that it went in your eyes? If mine ever rides up I have never not have some time where I can just not move my jaw at all and it stop moving, then I can adjust it when I have a moment.


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## UltraSUPRA (Sep 18, 2020)

Sicklyboy said:


> What laws? I haven't seen a single law regarding masks. Executive orders, plenty. Laws, no.


Okay. Sure. I still live in a state where masks are mandatory.


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## Sicklyboy (Sep 18, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> Okay. Sure. I still live in a state where masks are mandatory.



By law, or by governor executive order? There's a difference.


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## UltraSUPRA (Sep 18, 2020)

Sicklyboy said:


> By law, or by governor executive order? There's a difference.


*rolls eyes* Governor executive order.


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## Sicklyboy (Sep 18, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> *rolls eyes* Governor executive order.



So, not a law. Let's stay honest with one another here, it does nobody any good to be spreading disinformation


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## UltraSUPRA (Sep 18, 2020)

Sicklyboy said:


> So, not a law. Let's stay honest with one another here, it does nobody any good to be spreading disinformation


It's still mandated by local government.


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## Snintendog (Sep 18, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> It's still mandated by local government.


in massachusetts its LAW and comes with a 5k fine there is also a new thing where if you are coming from out of state and get caught not 14 quartining yourself that too comes with a 5-15k fine. Over in Sydney autralia its a police state 1 hour of outdoor anything you mustnot exceed this or be jailed.

There is a major over reach in AUS an US at the very least.


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## Snintendog (Sep 18, 2020)

notimp said:


> Here are the deathfigures sorted as deceased per million (last row on the right), just to show you what you are striving for in the US with a call for even less restrictions:
> 
> 
> 
> ...





per mill brah 202,000 million is 202 billion your math is off and CDC put out the total deaths in america is 186k with total US deaths from all things at 1.9 mill https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm the true amount of CONFIRMED covid caused deaths are at 10,686 prior was 9,210 when the story broke that only 6% of cases had tested positive for covid and died from it and not anyother disease such as PNEUMONIA gotta love how easy it is for the news to hide this data by manipulating data and numbers of other factors.


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## omgcat (Sep 18, 2020)

Snintendog said:


> in massachusetts its LAW and comes with a 5k fine there is also a new thing where if you are coming from out of state and get caught not 14 quartining yourself that too comes with a 5-15k fine. Over in Sydney autralia its a police state 1 hour of outdoor anything you mustnot exceed this or be jailed.
> 
> There is a major over reach in AUS an US at the very least.



AUS seems a bit extreme, but safety measures being enforced by law has been ruled constitutional since before the 1918 pandemic. Any law passed during a state of emergency with regards to a pandemic will probably win a supreme court case as long as it follows 2 rules, based on the ruling from Jacobson v Massachusetts.

(1) Is there a compelling state interest in an effort to protect public health and safety?
(2) Is the State’s police power necessary and being exercised in a reasonable and not an arbitrary manner?

Jacobson v Massachusetts in 1905 upheld compulsory vaccination for smallpox, and jail time for not following health regulations as constitutional, as long as they are evenly applied to everyone.


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## pleasehelpme2 (Sep 18, 2020)

Sicklyboy said:


> I think that viewpoint could be a slippery slope, tbh. I could counter that with "is life worth living if you're not free?"
> 
> Speaking from a directly US-centric viewpoint - There's a pretty well understood idea of what "freedom" is. There are "freedoms" written into our Constitution and Bill of Rights.
> 
> ...


Over here where I live most people are doing quite well wearing a mask, more encouraged by the sky being filled with smoke I imagine. I think what most people in the us think is that the usa's 'freedom" means you can do whatever you want although this would be incorrect I imagine because the country of the usa can take away those freedoms as easily as it gives it to you. To be honest if the usa prides itself on being #1 they should first focus on the people as there have been a lot of stories recently of people being quite rude and disrespectful. I'm not sure as to how the usa would fix this though as most of the people seems rather unconcerned when it comes to their own safety as well as others.


----------



## omgcat (Sep 18, 2020)

pleasehelpme2 said:


> Over here where I live most people are doing quite well wearing a mask, more encouraged by the sky being filled with smoke I imagine. I think what most people in the us think is that the usa's 'freedom" means you can do whatever you want although this would be incorrect I imagine because the country of the usa can take away those freedoms as easily as it gives it to you. To be honest if the usa prides itself on being #1 they should first focus on the people as there have been a lot of stories recently of people being quite rude and disrespectful. I'm not sure as to how the usa would fix this though as most of the people seems rather unconcerned when it comes to their own safety as well as others.



we are #1, in deaths and stupidity.


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## notimp (Sep 18, 2020)

Snintendog said:


> per mill brah 202,000 million is 202 billion your math is off and CDC put out the total deaths in america is 186k with total US deaths from all things at 1.9 mill https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm the true amount of CONFIRMED covid caused deaths are at 10,686 prior was 9,210 when the story broke that only 6% of cases had tested positive for covid and died from it and not anyother disease such as PNEUMONIA gotta love how easy it is for the news to hide this data by manipulating data and numbers of other factors.


source:
https://ncov2019.live/

He does data scraping from state governments websites, not sure when the CDC announced 186k but it must have been data from a while ago:
https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-...17-20-intl/h_e984bc04705ad12be17defb073da7dd5



> As of April 14, the CDC regularly updates two measurements of COVID-19 deaths: provisional deaths (verified by death certificates) and confirmed and probable cases (deaths suspected to have been caused by COVID-19).
> 
> The number of provisional deaths is based on data from the National Vital Statistics System, used by the National Center for Health Statistics, which records information from death certificates. This number lags the number of confirmed and probable cases because, according to the CDC’s website, “it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods.”


https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/...nfusion-cdcs-covid-19-death-count/3254404001/

Also not sure where your million billion confusion results from, per million means, those are the cases normalized to 1 million of a countries population. The number there is 610 for the US.

The table is sorted by the last column on the right.

Also your deranged number of 10k Covid deaths over all comes from where? Current classification used by the CDC for Covid deaths is ICD-10 Code U07.1 and always lists between 180.000-200.000.

We are done playing the no, no that was not Covid, that was that famous summer pneumonia epidemic that went parallel with it game, played in Kazakhstan.


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## Snintendog (Sep 18, 2020)

omgcat said:


> AUS seems a bit extreme, but safety measures being enforced by law has been ruled constitutional since before the 1918 pandemic. Any law passed during a state of emergency with regards to a pandemic will probably win a supreme court case as long as it follows 2 rules, based on the ruling from Jacobson v Massachusetts.
> 
> (1) Is there a compelling state interest in an effort to protect public health and safety?
> (2) Is the State’s police power necessary and being exercised in a reasonable and not an arbitrary manner?
> ...


funny you mention that...it got overturned not 2 years afterward as HIGHLY unconstitutional.


notimp said:


> source:
> https://ncov2019.live/
> 
> He does data scraping from state governments websites, not sure when the CDC announced 186k but it must have been data from a while ago:
> ...


i posted the regularly updated CDC page and you still question it....then you link a CNN page that directly contradicts what the CDC page linked says(and uses as a listed source) this is the times we are living in the source is wrong but those that incorrectly quote the source is right. just wow.


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## UltraSUPRA (Sep 19, 2020)

So people are going insane and committing suicide because of how long the lockdown has lasted.


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## notimp (Sep 21, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> So people are going insane and committing suicide because of how long the lockdown has lasted.


Which lockdown?

Lockdown as in only go out of the house to buy food and to work - economically, is only viable for 3 months max. Even in economies that arent the US.

Lockdown, as in full, across an entire country, only makes sense if you catch the propagation early (maybe first two weeks), because it prevents early spread, at low figures, when people dont know how social distancing works. Which when they get over it means, that your 'nearly exponential spread' starting number gets very low, which helps.
Then you can but in border closings to keep it that way. In the US that never was the case.

Because its so costly to maintain lockdowns, you really only want to do partial lockdowns (schools, eateries...) to minimize economic impact, if your hospitals are at risk of becoming overfilled, with all your medical personal going on strike.

You yourself championed another kind of lockdown like no other - namely to lock away the elderly, because you dont want to wear facemasks.

As for how suicide numbers in the US are doing - extremely badly, but that trend started way before the crisis.

If you want to gage societal impact, please look at over mortality numbers. Epidemics cause spikes, suicides dont. (They dont spread near exponentially). And yes, people doing the lockdown math (when in becomes necessary, usually in big cities) also look at predicted suicide numbers. Then tell their idiot mayor what to do.

Now stop posting crap and remove yourself from this forum - because all you ever added to anything was confusion, and propaganda you got your head washed with.

I cant play your personal 'thinking engine' for all of eternity.


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## MurraySkull (Sep 21, 2020)

notimp said:


> Which lockdown?
> 
> Lockdown as in only go out of the house to buy food and to work - economically, is only viable for 3 months max. Even in economies that arent the US.
> 
> ...


How about YOU remove yourself?


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## Deleted User (Sep 24, 2020)

MurraySkull said:


> How about YOU remove yourself?


I can't tell if I should seriously respond or just laugh at the edge of your quote.
Because, you seriously just posted cringe.


----------



## UltraSUPRA (Sep 25, 2020)




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## notimp (Sep 25, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


>


Vote Trump or the apocalypse - 2020

And you are the Bob Dylan of the ultra right?



In my case I'd have a warning on my neck, and the topic deleted with - not an image board, but since the moderator in here is partial - probably nothing for hours.

Also it is disgusting to see you guys play the victim card, when you are out in force, shooting with real guns and paintball guns at people in the streets, collectively glorifying a couple that posed with guns in front of a government building:

Again: https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-53980128

You are building myths here that are disgusting. But again, no moderation anywhere to be seen. This is allowed to become an alt right meme board, with the support of the people running this forum.

Also Biden has denounced socialist ideals even to the point, where the left asked him, if you really wants to loose the election on his own behalf in the last four weeks, so what you are presenting here not only is insane provocation and an attempt at a role reversal, while ignoring the current state of affairs on the ground in favor of a fantasy scenario. It also is an utter lie.

All factual, no flaming. Watch me get banned by the moderator by the end of the week for stating this.


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## UltraSUPRA (Sep 26, 2020)

https://nypost.com/2020/09/24/covid-19-mutation-may-be-evolving-to-bypass-masks-hand-washing/


----------



## UltraSUPRA (Sep 27, 2020)




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## notimp (Sep 27, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


>


src please:  thats a little too low



> But as researchers like us have learned more about the spread of the virus, we have discovered that the total number of infected people is far greater than the number of confirmed cases. When deaths from COVID-19 are divided by the total number of cases – not just reported cases – you get a statistic called the infection fatality rate (IFR), or colloquially, the death rate. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention currently has a best guess of 0.65% for the IFR. But current estimates fall anywhere between 0.2% and 1%, a surprisingly large range when calculating the infection fatality rate should be as simple as dividing the number of deaths by total infections. And these estimates are changing all the time. In fact, in the time it took to write this article, the CDC changed its best estimate of the fatality rate from 0.26% to 0.65%.


https://theconversation.com/how-dea...ind-but-researchers-are-getting-closer-141426


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## UltraSUPRA (Sep 27, 2020)

notimp said:


> src please:  thats a little too low
> 
> 
> https://theconversation.com/how-dea...ind-but-researchers-are-getting-closer-141426


I looked it up, and apparently Fox News put the decimal point in the wrong area.
Even so, 70+ at 5.4%, while higher than it should be, is the only age range above 1% fatalities.


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## notimp (Oct 30, 2020)

Fun.



> *How long am I immune after a COVID-19 infection?*
> That depends on a number of factors, including your age, as the ICL study suggests. People over the age of 75 showed significantly faster reduction in antibodies than younger people. In addition, the production of antibodies depended on the severity of the COVID-19 infection. Notably, the number of antibodies dropped less among health care workers. The scientists said that could indicate repeat or higher exposure to the coronavirus. So, whether an immunity lasts weeks or days depends on the person who gets infected.
> 
> In another study by Harvard Medical School and the University of Toronto researchers found that the highest prevalence of antibodies could be measured between two and four weeks after an infection, but that the number of antibodies dropped after that.
> ...


https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-how-long-am-i-immune-after-an-infection/a-55420844


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## UltraSUPRA (Nov 5, 2020)

Fourteenth amendment:
"*No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of* life, *liberty*, or property, without due process of law."


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## Deleted User (Nov 5, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> Fourteenth amendment:
> "*No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of* life, *liberty*, or property, without due process of law."


"No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, *without due process of law*."
Also companies enforcing masks, wouldn't be a state issue. And states enforcing masks, well you do get due process. Please continue on demonstrating your stupidity though.


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## UltraSUPRA (Nov 5, 2020)

monkeyman4412 said:


> "No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, *without due process of law*."
> Also companies enforcing masks, wouldn't be a state issue. And states enforcing masks, well you do get due process. Please continue on demonstrating your stupidity though.


"*No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States."*


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## D34DL1N3R (Nov 5, 2020)

I'd really like to know which privileges, immunities, life, liberty, or property has been robbed from anyone by having to wear a mask. My god the sheer amount of pure, flat out stupidity is high with the anti-maskers. As has already been pointed out by several people, you don't see them crying about things like having to wear a seat belt or not use their cell phones while driving. The only reason they are so god damn anti-mask is because of Trump and Fox downplaying the entire thing. Even when Trump was caught red handed flat out LYING to the entire USA about COVID-19, with 100% irrefutable proof, they still believe him. You idiots are STILL 100% free to not wear a mask if you don't want to. ZERO freedoms have been taken away. But you know, dotards fall not far from the dotard tree.


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## UltraSUPRA (Nov 5, 2020)

D34DL1N3R said:


> I'd really like to know which privileges, immunities, life, liberty, or property has been robbed from anyone by having to wear a mask.


The privilege and liberty to go outside without damaging your ears.


D34DL1N3R said:


> As has already been pointed out by several people, you don't see them crying about things like having to wear a seat belt or not use their cell phones while driving.


It's my responsibility to protect myself and the people I care about. It's not my responsibility to protect strangers.


D34DL1N3R said:


> The only reason they are so god damn anti-mask is because of Trump and Fox downplaying the entire thing.


99+% survival rate.


D34DL1N3R said:


> You idiots are STILL 100% free to not wear a mask if you don't want to.


Not in my state.


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## Zaide (Nov 5, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> Not in my state.


I did come in to this topic a bit late, so I must have missed something. Which state is it that will arrest and prosecute you for not wearing a mask in public?


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## UltraSUPRA (Nov 5, 2020)

Zaide said:


> I did come in to this topic a bit late, so I must have missed something. Which state is it that will arrest and prosecute you for not wearing a mask in public?


You get fined $50 in Alabama.


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## notimp (Nov 13, 2020)

Aerosol transmission risk calculator (Max Plank Institute, Germany):
https://www.mpic.de/4747361/risk-calculator

Click on english at the top, underneath the printer symbol (english translation is available).

This includes mask filtration properties you could play around with.


Example I'd urge you to take a look at:

Click office, and then change the "mask efficiency value" in "event details" and/or "infected person properties" to 0.5 and hit enter. Then take a look at how this affects outcome.


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## djpannda (Nov 13, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> You get fined $50 in Alabama.


not this garbage again, I guess here we going again....

WE don't care that 250,000 Americans died, heck we don't care if 1,250,00 in the world died.. or that Children that get Covid might have development issues, or new report state we can see "1 in 5" people who had COVID show signs of mental health issues 

All that does not matter to me and @UltraSUPRA, want people to see our Dentures, I did not have medicare HMO pay 2,000 for my pearly white to hide them behind  a Mask!! and I don't care how many Grammas We kill!


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## SonowRaevius (Nov 13, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> View attachment 226029


The people that were having blowouts while the salons were closed were't people actually abiding the rules and telling others to wear masks, quarantine and social distance. Ironically those same people protested after the fact that their own actions caused lock-downs. Also, if the current administration had actually done something for the  people that ran those solons and every other small/essential businees everything would have been fine, instead they bailed out billionaires and let the rest of the country suffer.

Those same people were that were protesting were the  ones traveling during a pandemic without masks and being surprised when countries turned them away.

No one is actually trying to take anyone's guns away, and the ones with their protection is also the current and next administration. Don't really know what this had to remotely do Covid at all.

Also, why is it somehow socialism's fault that this happened when the US is a capitalistic society?

Absolutely nothing about the meme makes any sense....It's like they just garbled together everything they thought was bad and tried to throw it all under one label....


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## UltraSUPRA (Nov 13, 2020)

djpannda said:


> WE don't care that 250,000 Americans died, heck we don't care if 1,250,00 in the world died.. or that Children that get Covid might have development issues, or new report state we can see "1 in 5" people who had COVID show signs of mental health issues


250,000 seems like a lot of bodies, but that's over nine months...with the highest one-day death total since April being less than 2,500. Even if it was as dangerous as the media makes it out to be, I believe in freedom above all else, other than Jesus.

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------

Oh, also, I'd imagine it'd be more effective to strengthen our immune systems.


----------



## djpannda (Nov 13, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> You get fined $50 in Alabama.


me and @UltraSUPRA are ok with the fact that our kids and Grandkids might end up special needs ... ask long as our instagram photo is ROCKING!!
Yes it’s COVID is going to make our immune system better .. look at the plague .. it only wiped a third of Europe’s and now we can never get it again.. and Ebola too .. the common cold is worse

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------

Jesus did not want us to take care of each other ....no the famous words of jesus “ I’ll take care of mine -Philippians 2:4.  Oh wait. I don’t remember the Bible saying that ... oh it’s says sometime silly like “Let each of you look not only to his own interests, but also to the interests of others”.  But it’s not like baby Jesus cries every time we let someone  die when we have the power to save them .. no


----------



## jimbo13 (Nov 19, 2020)

The useless face diapers are socialist virtue signaling & a political weapon that do nothing other than make stupid people feel safe.  More people would of died in the same period of car accidents.  Millions have died of starvation of in the third world due to disruption in supply chains.  Millions more will die due to suicide, depression and drug overdoses due to the disruptions in their lives and business.

The only effective mask is N95, which people are discouraged from buying or using.

The most authoritarian & aggressive pols are the ones most frequently flouting the rules they impose on you, because they know it is bullshit.  They don't care about safety, it's about control & compliance that is why they don't care what your mask is made of as long as you have your symbol on.

Thank god I live in the most heavily armed state in the country, the soon to be Independent Nation of Montana.  Our government doesn't tell us what to do, they suggested and asked nicely and we still said fuck off. I haven't ever wore a mask and never will.


----------



## notimp (Nov 20, 2020)

This is starting to look like a comical farce on part of democrats:



> Biden rules out 'national shutdown'
> 
> US President-elect Joe Biden has vowed not to shut down the country despite soaring coronavirus cases, pushing instead for a national order on wearing masks. He also took a shot at Trump's "incredible irresponsibility."


https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-b...hutdown-opts-for-face-mask-mandate/a-55670306

Do nothing nationally coordinated, except for maybe providing PPE to hospitals, try to force people to wear masks (whats a national order to wear masks?), blame the other side for historical irresponsibility.



> He backed up his refusal to shut down the country explaining that "every region, every area, every community can be different" and that a single national lockdown would be "counterproductive."



Ah - well look at that. Leave it up to state governors, ey?



> Biden said he was impressed by the consensus which appeared among the governors, who agreed to pull together against COVID-19 regardless of their political affiliations.


What a bunch of crock.

Now thats something you needed the Biden administration for...

Good luck on forcing people to wear masks.

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------



jimbo13 said:


> The useless face diapers are socialist virtue signaling


The dumb persons explanation of things is factually false, adding a baseless villain motive (socialists), and claiming an object could be a persons virtue.

Not only are you idiotic, not only are your claims mad, not only are you passively killing people with those claims, not only are you aiming for deviding people for no reason, not only are you meming on people dying, not only are you...

Reck yourself, before you check yourself.

Stop trying to influence the uneducated, simple minded folks, you piece of hurt dishing fear monger.


edit: NYT already second guessing Bidens 'national order' option going for 'options to make it a social norm' instead.



> Mr. Biden has conceded that a presidential order for all Americans to wear masks would almost certainly face — and most likely fall to — a legal challenge.


src: https://web.archive.org/web/2020111.../29/us/politics/trump-biden-mask-mandate.html

But a month later the Biden administration has forgotten exactly that, when it comes to - well actual virtue signaling? ("We wanted national order, but we only could get social norm.")


----------



## FAST6191 (Nov 26, 2020)

Fun one coming up it seems
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/23/cov...cts-from-shots-wont-be-walk-in-the-park-.html

Side effects from various vaccines have medics worried about people returning for a second dose, but also figuring out how to stagger rollout so they don't drop all the staff as they feel like refried death a day later and can't man all the posts.

Seems medics, or at least those that don't normally spend so much time with patients, are also far less versed in weasel words than the marketing scum that usually take up such tasks.


----------



## notimp (Nov 27, 2020)

Covid did not originate in Wuhan, at least - if the supplied 'likely first sample' originating in a bat - was the ancestor.

Also Bat>Human crossover likely happened 50 years ago.

Fun.

src:


----------



## SG854 (Nov 27, 2020)

notimp said:


> Covid did not originate in Wuhan, at least - if the supplied 'likely first sample' originating in a bat - was the ancestor.
> 
> Also Bat>Human crossover likely happened 50 years ago.
> 
> ...



Likely but still uncertain. The bat to human could've happened last year as the guy said. They still don't know yet.

The Wuhan market likely was the accelerator.


----------



## notimp (Nov 27, 2020)

SG854 said:


> Likely but still uncertain. The bat to human could've happened last year as the guy said. They still don't know yet.
> 
> The Wuhan market likely was the accelerator.


As far as I've understood it, bat virus genome still very much different from human virus genome ver A. Transmodification (very official termTM, not) to ver A. should have happened in something 'very human like'. As in - still a whole lot of difference there.

Three options.

a. jump over happened 50 years ago (many iteration cycles in humans)
b. transmuted in a race of bat - genetically very close to humans - we havent discovered yet (many transmutation cycles in not yet known mystery bat with 99.9% human genome).
c. common ancestor 'first bat virus sample' is a lie



If anyone wants to know for sure, read the study papers..


----------



## SG854 (Nov 27, 2020)

notimp said:


> As far as I've understood it, bat genome still very much different from human genome ver A. Transmodifikation (very official termTM, not) to ver A. should have happened in something 'very human like'. As in - still a whole lot of difference there.
> 
> Three options.
> 
> ...



Wasn't it 95% close to human. 99.9% is too close to human genome, that's into great ape territory.


----------



## notimp (Nov 27, 2020)

SG854 said:


> Wasn't it 95% close to human. 99.9% is too close to human genome, that's into great ape territory.


Someone watch it again and tell us.


----------



## tabzer (Nov 27, 2020)

So while America had its smallpox and other viruses, and contained samples of them in their history--what about China's history?  Is that as transparent?


----------



## Deleted User (Nov 28, 2020)

tabzer said:


> So while America had its smallpox and other viruses, and contained samples of them in their history--what about China's history?  Is that as transparent?


Implying?
And I also ask, what are you trying to argue? Since your argument is unclear.


----------



## tabzer (Nov 28, 2020)

monkeyman4412 said:


> Implying?
> And I also ask, what are you trying to argue? Since your argument is unclear.


It's not an argument.  It's a question.  The implication is that Chinese history is not as accessible as American history.  Correct me if I am wrong.  kthxbai


----------



## Deleted User (Nov 28, 2020)

tabzer said:


> It's not an argument.  It's a question.  The implication is that Chinese history is not as accessible as American history.  Correct me if I am wrong.  kthxbai


no you clearly have an argument to make.
You make the comparison of the us, to china specifically within the context of viruses.



tabzer said:


> So while America had its smallpox and other viruses, and contained samples of* them in their history--what about China's history?  Is that as transparent*?


I'm merely asking what point are you trying to make, since questions themselves can be an argument.
For example, if I say "well, sweden handled the Corona virus badly. But what about the United States? Is the president there being transparent?"


That question(s) imply that you take the position of "united states did worse than sweeden , and the information from the president is inaccurate/false" regarding to how well it's being dealt with. Stop trying to doge. You have a motive, so please, tell me what where you trying to imply with this statement.


tabzer said:


> So while America had its smallpox and other viruses, and contained samples of them in their history--what about China's history?  Is that as transparent?


----------



## tabzer (Nov 28, 2020)

monkeyman4412 said:


> no you clearly have an argument to make.
> You make the comparison of the us, to china specifically within the context of viruses.



It was a statement that we know more about the US's history with viruses and how they handled them, and that I don't know about Chinese history in the proper respect.  It was an appeal for someone who is more informed than me to chime in.  Not for some monkey boy to come try to fight me.




monkeyman4412 said:


> I'm merely asking what point are you trying to make, since questions themselves can be an argument.
> For example, if I say "well, sweden handled the Corona virus badly. But what about the United States? Is the president there being transparent?"
> 
> 
> That question(s) imply that you take the position of "united states did worse than sweeden , and the information from the president is inaccurate" regarding to how well it's being dealt with. Stop trying to doge. You have a motive, so please, tell me what where you trying to imply with this statement.



You are going off the deep end and you are not contributing anything useful.  Bye.


----------



## Deleted User (Nov 28, 2020)

tabzer said:


> It was a statement that we know more about the US's history with viruses and how they handled them, and that I don't know about Chinese history in the proper respect.*  It was an appeal for someone who is more informed than me to chime in.*  Not for some monkey boy to come try to fight me.


Bruh...
why don't you look it up?
Oh wait, because I feel like your answer is most likely dishonest.
For any person who doesn't know what I'm getting at.
there is a lot of conspiracies about china and covid.
One doesn't ask the very specific question of "we know USAs history of viruses. but what about china. is it transparent?"
It doesn't take many braincells to put two and two together.


further more you used the keyword "transparent"
No person ever uses transparent to mean "not accessible" it's always been used in the context of dishonesty or intentional concealment.


if you try to argue there is no difference between concealment and not accessible there is. concealment is the act of hiding something from another. Not accessible could come from poor documentation or additional reasons.


additionally,
if you really where trying to ask that question.
Why did you ask it in the thread called "The media is creating mass hysteria over the Coronavirus."
When you could of just asked it in a discord chat, or maybe made a separate thread here on this site.
I could go on, but I have a lot of reason to believe you asked that question dishonestly given my reasoning above.


----------



## tabzer (Nov 28, 2020)

monkeyman4412 said:


> Bruh...
> why don't you look it up?
> Oh wait, because I feel like your answer is most likely dishonest.
> For any person who doesn't know what I'm getting at.
> ...




You are being a moron. "Transparent" does not mean "not accessible".  If you can't answer the question then back off and let someone else answer it.


----------



## Deleted User (Nov 28, 2020)

tabzer said:


> You are being a moron.* "Transparent" does not mean "not accessible".*  If you can't answer the question then back off and let someone else answer it.






tabzer said:


> It's not an argument.  It's a question.  The implication is that Chinese history* is not as accessible as American history.*  Correct me if I am wrong.  kthxbai


I never said it did, but you tried to make that assertion.

here's the banter between us.




tabzer said:


> So while America had its smallpox and other viruses, and contained samples of them in their history--what about China's history?  Is that as transparent?






monkeyman4412 said:


> Implying?
> And I also ask, what are you trying to argue? Since your argument is unclear.





tabzer said:


> It's not an argument.  It's a question.  The implication is that Chinese histor*y is not as accessible as American history. * Correct me if I am wrong.  kthxbai


this is the exact order of posts. I asked what you were trying to imply with your question, and you answered "the implication is that Chinese history is not as accessible as American history"simply put, I busted you lying. Since we both know that wasn't what you were trying to imply with the word "transparent" and you yourself just confirmed that. by saying that transparent doesn't mean not accessible.


There is now a lot of evidence that you were being factitious with that question. Since even from your own mouth, you just contradicted what you stated you were trying to imply.  It also doesn't add up to why you asked the question here when you could of made it a thread, or ask whatever search engine you prefer. Especially considering this is the political side of the forms and asking it conveniently on the topic of "the media is creating mass hysteria" when we have multiple covid threads. It also doesn't explain why you used loaded question. Since "(usa backround) what about china? is it as transparent?" counts as a loaded question.


----------



## gregory-samba (Nov 28, 2020)

@tabzer China restricts access to the Internet for its own citizens so I highly doubt they are going to open their records for the UN, WHO or CDC. Actually China has been vanishing scientists in their country for speaking truths about the Chinese Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19). Getting your question answered might be difficult and risky.


----------



## tabzer (Nov 28, 2020)

gregory-samba said:


> @tabzer China restricts access to the Internet for its own citizens so I highly doubt they are going to open their records for the UN, WHO or CDC. Actually China has been vanishing scientists in their country for speaking truths about the Chinese Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19). Getting your question answered might be difficult and risky.



Thanks.  I guess that's the best answer so far.  I know that America teaches about its own history in schools and that smallpox and other diseases have been largely contained, while keeping samples on military bases/science facilities.  I just wondered how it is for a Chinese citizen, and what kinds of things they learn about in school.  I don't know what life is like there.  @notimp's scenarios had me thinking about the possibility of "scenario a" and wondered how aware citizens would be about their own history with viruses and disease.



monkeyman4412 said:


> There is now a lot of evidence that you were being factitious with that question. Since even from your own mouth, you just contradicted what you stated you were trying to imply. It also doesn't add up to why you asked the question here when you could of made it a thread, or ask whatever search engine you prefer. Especially considering this is the political side of the forms and asking it conveniently on the topic of "the media is creating mass hysteria" when we have multiple covid threads. It also doesn't explain why you used loaded question. Since "(usa backround) what about china? is it as transparent?" counts as a loaded question.



Stop being a whiny brat.



monkeyman4412 said:


> No person ever uses transparent to mean "not accessible"



That's DUMB.  Learn English, then read my original post again.  If you still don't get it, request help from someone who is smarter than you.


----------



## Deleted User (Nov 28, 2020)

tabzer said:


> Stop being a whiny brat.
> 
> 
> 
> That's DUMB.  Learn English, then read my original post again.  If you still don't get it, request help from someone who is smarter than you.


the dodging continues.
I'll just quote you.

the question:


tabzer said:


> So while America had its smallpox and other viruses, and contained samples of them in their history--*what about China's history?  Is that as transparent? *



When asked what you were implying with your question



tabzer said:


> It's not an argument.  It's a question. _ The implication is that Chinese history is *not as accessible* as American history. _Correct me if I am wrong.  kthxbai


if we take what you said about transparency.


tabzer said:


> You are being a moron. *"Transparent" does not mean "not accessible". *


Then we know what you said you were implying is false.
this doesn't take much brain power to understand



so I ask again.
Why did you ask that question, here out of all threads? Why did you use the word transparent, if you weren't trying to mean not accessible? 
Since you yourself already told us that wasn't what you were trying to say.

I also ask what were you trying to imply. If the thing you said you were trying to imply is false, then what is the real implication?
this is called holding your statements accountable. You said one thing, and contradicted yourself. The burden of proof is on you.


----------



## tabzer (Nov 29, 2020)

monkeyman4412 said:


> Then we know what you said you were implying is false.
> this doesn't take much brain power to understand



I used "as" (adverb) to compare the quality of transparency between two countries, with the primary (US) being more of the quality and the latter (China) of being less or equal to.  It was not my goal to ask if China is more accessible than America, because that would imply that there's a possibility of that--and that is something I already don't believe.  The question was loaded, sure, but I didn't realize we had people willing to shut down potential dissent from the CCP here.  I'm sorry that you think you have the right to be offended, but you have not provided any reason to believe that you are an acting official, or that you'd even have jurisdiction.

What I said didn't betray the intention and you need an extra braincell, it would appear.

Now run away, like you usually do, after losing another stupid argument.  I look forward to the next time you acost me like a spaz.


----------



## ki11ermax (Nov 29, 2020)

Boesy said:


> In some countries, the situation has become really bad as the virus is technologically advanced so it's not possible to tell who has it straight away till they start to feel the symptoms.
> 
> However, in U.S. and U.K. it's like they're prepping up for the Zombie Apocalypse.
> 
> ...



the media loves panicking people its nothing new. its just crazy that they can get away with it without any repercussions


----------



## th3joker (Nov 29, 2020)

This has been one of the best social experiments. This is not the spanish flu like we first thought. This is imo sensationalism infotainment fueled by integrated internet and social media cult sheep follower mentalaty


----------



## Deleted User (Nov 29, 2020)

tabzer said:


> The question was loaded, sure,


So... You admit to making a dishonest question... do you want a cookie?


tabzer said:


> but I didn't realize we had people willing to shut down potential dissent from the CCP here.


Oh I see, I'm suddenly the bad guy for only taking issue that you were making a question in bad faith. I see how that works.



tabzer said:


> I used* "as" (adverb) to compare the quality of transparency *between two countries, with the primary (US) being more of the quality and the latter (China) of being less or equal to.





tabzer said:


> It's not an argument.  It's a question.  The implication is that Chinese history *is not as accessible as American history*.  Correct me if I am wrong.  kthxbai


Does anyone see a problem here?
No?
Let's reload this statement then



tabzer said:


> You are being a moron. *"Transparent" does not mean "not accessible".*  If you can't answer the question then back off and let someone else answer it.


Anyone looking at the quotes above would notice that you just used transparency and not (as) accessible interchangeably even though you stated before they aren't the same.
Something's telling me your backing the fuck up since your caught. Trying to change what you were saying. Also back to your defense of "well I used as" doesn't really matter. Not accessible and not as accessible, not transparent, and not as transparent does not change the meaning in any significant way. Yeah, your  comparing something. does it change the meaning by much? No. My arguments still stand.

Moving on, I again ask. Because essentially admitting that it was a loaded question. Only helps prove my point. That the question you made was in bad faith.
So, what was your motive for asking it here? Again it bears repeating. Your on the internet, you can look shit up. So why ask here, out of all covid related forms? or with the option to make your own form. Given that it was a loaded question, what was your agenda? Loaded questions don't normally occur unless someone is trying to push a agenda on someone else.
Keep trying to dismiss me, you've been dismissive this entire time.


----------



## tabzer (Nov 29, 2020)

monkeyman4412 said:


> admit to making a dishonest question



I don't think it was dishonest.  I think it was pretty clear that I already think China is lacking in transparency.  You asked me what I was implying (as if you genuinely couldn't understand), and I said it directly.  What is a surprise at though, is that you find it controversial and a dishonest assessment.



monkeyman4412 said:


> Not accessible and not as accessible, not transparent, and not as transparent does not change the meaning in any significant way



Yeah.  That's not what you said before.  I already made the point that accessible and transparent are synonyms in the way that I am using them.  You argued something completely different.



monkeyman4412 said:


> No person ever uses transparent to mean "not accessible"



That's dumb and false--and apparently your "proof" of my "contradiction".



monkeyman4412 said:


> I'm suddenly the bad guy for only taking issue that you were making a question in bad faith



You look like the bad guy because you take issue with that there was an implication, act as it is controversial--yet you won't be forward enough to accept or reject it.  

I would have been open if you were to say something to the lines of, "China is more transparent than people generally think, and the reasons are..." 



monkeyman4412 said:


> Keep trying to dismiss me, you've been dismissive this entire time.



As I should.  You are having a temper tantrum and not making sense.


----------



## Deleted User (Nov 29, 2020)

tabzer said:


> I don't think it was dishonest.


Loaded questions are inherently dishonest, they are push an agenda. You yourself stated that it was supposed to be just a question. You know it was a dishonest question. If you just merely asked "what is china's history about Viruses" I would of given far less scrutiny over it.

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------



tabzer said:


> You look like the bad guy because you take issue with that there was an implication, act as it is controversial--yet you won't be forward enough to accept or reject it.


Again it's a matter of where you asked it. You've yet to still defend yourself as to why you didn't go research it.

I also already stated that I had suspicion that you were going to throw some conspiracy out. because your original statement could be used as a basis as such. I also took issue because it's a loaded question.




tabzer said:


> It was presumptuous, but not dishonest.



from the context of you just saying it was supposed to be JUST a question. No, it was dishonest.



tabzer said:


> It was loaded for you because you disagreed with the presumption and found it controversial.


Further from the truth. I disagreed specifically with how you framed it. I don't find it controversial. What I do find as an issue is you trying to frame a question that is so vague and definitely not innocent at all. Such a specifically worded, loaded question can invoke conspiracy theories. That's why I took issue with it initially.


----------



## tabzer (Nov 29, 2020)

monkeyman4412 said:


> Loaded questions are inherently dishonest, they are push an agenda. You yourself stated that it was supposed to be just a question. You know it was a dishonest question. If you just merely asked "what is china's history about Viruses" I would of given far less scrutiny over it.


It was presumptuous, but not dishonest.  It was loaded for you because you disagreed with the presumption and found it controversial.  Honestly, that was an unexpected reaction.  Please explain how I was wrong in assuming that China might not be as transparent about their history with its citizens in regards to viruses and disease.


----------



## tabzer (Nov 30, 2020)

monkeyman4412 said:


> I also took issue because it's a loaded question.



It's only loaded if the implication is controversial.  Since this is a question for more than one person, it can be loaded for you and not for others.  You are calling it a loaded question, so what do you disagree with, specifically?  Just that it sounds bad?



monkeyman4412 said:


> from the context of you just saying it was supposed to be JUST a question. No, it was dishonest.



I didn't say "it was JUST a question".  I have been up front about what I said and you are making a habit of injecting your own creep into what I've said.  You are projecting so hard.  



monkeyman4412 said:


> . I don't find it controversial. What I do find as an issue is you trying to frame a question that is so vague and definitely not innocent at all. Such a specifically worded, loaded question can invoke conspiracy theories. That's why I took issue with it initially.



Ah gatekeeping.  Nice.  How virtuous of you.

Also, how are you editing your posts without it saying "edited"?  Why aren't you responding to me in-line?


----------



## UltraSUPRA (Nov 30, 2020)

So I found something.


----------



## Deleted User (Nov 30, 2020)

tabzer said:


> Also, how are you editing your posts without it saying "edited"?  Why aren't you responding to me in-line?


Gbatemp occasionally glitches out my posts. it occasionally binds what I already said to a previous post I made, Making it somehow possible for me to respond to something before  even if there is a response in between. I don't know how it happens, but it does. That's a question for the back end people since even I don't get how the fuck that happens.


----------



## tabzer (Nov 30, 2020)

monkeyman4412 said:


> Gbatemp occasionally glitches out my posts. it occasionally binds what I already said to a previous post I made, even if there is a response in between. I don't know how it happens, but it does.


Thanks.  Weird and confusing though.


----------



## omgcat (Nov 30, 2020)

th3joker said:


> This has been one of the best social experiments. This is not the spanish flu like we first thought. This is imo sensationalism infotainment fueled by integrated internet and social media cult sheep follower mentalaty



tell that to the 250k+ dead people, wake them up and pull their dead bodies out of the ground cause it's just a flu. My friends mom passed from covid on Saturday, was in the ICU intubated for 10 days. The lack of empathy fucking kills me. These aren't just numbers, they are people with lives, families, and friends. My friend couldn't even see her in her last moments.


----------



## UltraSUPRA (Nov 30, 2020)

omgcat said:


> tell that to the 250k+ dead people, wake them up and pull their dead bodies out of the ground cause it's just a flu. My friends mom passed from covid on Saturday, was in the ICU intubated for 10 days. The lack of empathy fucking kills me. These aren't just numbers, they are people with lives, families, and friends.


The amount of total deaths this year has been equal to any other year. The amount of hospitalizations is lower.


----------



## omgcat (Nov 30, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> The amount of total deaths this year has been equal to any other year. The amount of hospitalizations is lower.



oh boy, i'll make sure to tell Jeff his mom is OK! the total deaths are normal! his mom was just a normal statistic! It was ok for her to die! jackass

except you're wrong about the death rate, we have almost 300k excess deaths this year compared to average.





https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm


----------



## UltraSUPRA (Nov 30, 2020)

omgcat said:


> except you're wrong about the death rate, we have almost 300k excess deaths this year compared to average.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I don't know about that one.




--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------

Oh, also, if you still want that precious vaccine, read the last sentence of this.


 
The usual safety tests will be bypassed, as those may take years of monitoring.

Yeah, I ain't taking it.


----------



## omgcat (Nov 30, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> I don't know about that one.
> View attachment 235975



oh my god, it's like people don't want to (or can't) go outside or to other dangerous places thus reducing the need for medical services. oh, and maybe people are more worried about their health and are getting preventative care instead of putting it off and dying. what a concept! maybe try un-slopeing your forehead a bit.

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------



UltraSUPRA said:


> I don't know about that one.
> View attachment 235975
> 
> --------------------- MERGED ---------------------------
> ...



weren't you the one raving about sputnikV months ago? totally ready to take a Russian vaccine and advocating for it? what happened to that? didn't come out in time to save Diaper don, so now you're gonna throw a hissy fit?


----------



## UltraSUPRA (Nov 30, 2020)

omgcat said:


> oh my god, it's like people don't want to (or can't) go outside or to other dangerous places thus reducing the need for medical services. oh, and maybe people are more worried about their health and are getting preventative care instead of putting it off and dying. what a concept! maybe try un-slopeing your forehead a bit.


Fun fact: over in Japan, more people committed suicide last month than there were COVID deaths since its creation. Don't even try to argue that these COVID precautions save lives.


omgcat said:


> weren't you the one raving about sputnikV months ago? totally ready to take a Russian vaccine and advocating for it? what happened to that? didn't come out in time to save Diaper don, so now you're gonna throw a hissy fit?


I'm not going to take that, either. I want it out ASAP, so we can get back to normal, but I want it priced insanely high so that nobody can take it, meaning nobody will suffer any potential side effects.


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## tabzer (Nov 30, 2020)

I have a problem with the term excess deaths, which is used everywhere in these articles.


Number of excess deaths: A range of estimates for the number of excess deaths was calculated as the difference between the observed count and one of two thresholds (either the average expected count or the upper bound threshold), by week and jurisdiction. Negative values, where the observed count fell below the threshold, were set to zero.
So negative values are set to zero. That will certainly pump numbers up.

This is an example to demonstrate the logical fallacy, and aren't based on real statistics:





So even in the event there are less deaths in 2020, we can still report of 350 excess deaths in 2020.

350 excess deaths, which is a 22%  increase!  Where is all this excess death coming from?  Well, we can blame Covid because that's the only thing new in 2020.  (Something the NYTimes would probably say--the reputable source who would never mislead you.)

This is not to say that Covid is not dangerous, and that we should not be doing everything we can to prevent spreading it.  My only point in sharing this is to point out how the statistics aren't user friendly (or even meaningful, possibly), and they are being used as the reference point to make the pandemic easier to sell--which I personally do not think is helpful in containing it.


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## th3joker (Nov 30, 2020)

omgcat said:


> tell that to the 250k+ dead people, wake them up and pull their dead bodies out of the ground cause it's just a flu. My friends mom passed from covid on Saturday, was in the ICU intubated for 10 days. The lack of empathy fucking kills me. These aren't just numbers, they are people with lives, families, and friends. My friend couldn't even see her in her last moments.



People die every year from the corona virus witch is mutated flu virus that transfered from animal to human just like the "pig" and "bird" flu "end of the world plagues" we have seen in the last 10 years. The difference now is that evey idiot has a smart phone now and blindly believes whatever the majority of other like minded simpletons believe. Hence the toilet paper "shortage" that was started with a meme. Ive had the rona but i had it in november 2019. Before we had a way test for it. I have family and friends that work in the hospitals and i know that the numbers are inflated by false positives, that the hospitals are losing money from not being allowed to do organ donations from the random daily deaths, so in order to not go bankrupt are allowed to lable damn near any death as "covid related" to then get a government grant for $35'000.00 to "process and clean up" after a covid death. The tests living people are taking are high with false positives and if you stop and think about it the drive up testing sites and really any place where people get tested are "super spreader sites". What we have not gotten to is the blockade of being able to publicly grocery shop without being required to have a daily covid clear check or a proof of covid antibodys or a proof of covid vaccine.  Thats where this is leading to since "the stupid general public" are all to blame for this virus to keep spreading and we are all dicks for not literally staying inside our bedrooms and just watch tv to see when they say we can stop with this "new normal" bs and go back to knowing the world still spins clouds still rain and plants still grow and its not the end of the world. Lol.

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------

The panic is and always will be far worse than the actual problem and that is the real issue. The SJW mentality which is a version of oppressive brain washing has been allowed for the last few year to feel entitled empowerment and if you disagree they will cancel you or try to hurt any way you make money. Their is no overhead of a group of world doctors who hold the right to dictate to the entire world what they think we all should do based on a educated guess


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## omgcat (Nov 30, 2020)

th3joker said:


> People die every year from the corona virus witch is mutated flu virus that transfered from animal to human just like the "pig" and "bird" flu "end of the world plagues" we have seen in the last 10 years.



you're just blasting out flat out lies left and right. you couldn't even get the basic facts right. Influenza and Coronavirus are completely different families of viruses. one is in the Orthomyxoviridae family and the other is in the coronavirade family. that's like saying cats and dogs are 100% the same thing because they are both mammals. it's not a good look. like if you can't even get 8th grade biology facts right, why should i believe anything else you posted? like i don't understand how Americans can eat up all this disinfo nonsense like "Covid is a hoax" or "covid will disappear when the election ends". There's more than 180 countries besides us fucking around with this virus and some have had much better responses than we did. maybe we should pull our head out of our ass and pay attention.

like we have a complete genetic sequence of the fucking thing and people still think it's fake, i just don't understand.


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## UltraSUPRA (Nov 30, 2020)

I'm just gonna post this again.




--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------

I'll also pull out a better argument for this.


omgcat said:


> oh my god, it's like people don't want to (or can't) go outside or to other dangerous places thus reducing the need for medical services. oh, and maybe people are more worried about their health and are getting preventative care instead of putting it off and dying. what a concept! maybe try un-slopeing your forehead a bit.


Then why is COVID still an issue?


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## omgcat (Nov 30, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> Then why is COVID still an issue?



people don't listen to scientists and get them and their family members killed? more than 7 million people took planes over thanksgiving week?


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## UltraSUPRA (Nov 30, 2020)

omgcat said:


> people don't listen to scientists and get them and their family members killed? more than 7 million people took planes over thanksgiving week?


Then why is the death rate for all causes lower this year than last year?


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## wartutor (Nov 30, 2020)

omgcat said:


> people don't listen to scientists and get them and their family members killed? more than 7 million people took planes over thanksgiving week?


A lot of people like me feel this virus is what it is. You cant just keep living bottled up in your home till you die. Thats not living. Then you have people that are religious and believe they will go when they go its all gods plan. Then theres ones that just dont give a fuck. (I kind of fall in that category too). You cant just keep people locked up in a cage only to leave when they have to work. If its safe enough for me to work then its safe enough for me to play. With a .02% death rate im more likely to die on the way to walmart in a car crash (not quiet but still .02% isnt shit) you can die tomorrow from something unrelated to covid and what will people say...i use to know him but he was locked up at home for the last 9 months not living...kind of a waste  of his last few months. If only he lived a little before then. Famous saying applies here (this generation made up or last hell i cant remember) YOLO


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## UltraSUPRA (Nov 30, 2020)

This will be my last post for a week.
https://www.globalresearch.ca/medical-doctor-warns-bacterial-pneumonias-rise-mask-wearing/5725848


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## notimp (Nov 30, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> This will be my last post for a week.
> https://www.globalresearch.ca/medical-doctor-warns-bacterial-pneumonias-rise-mask-wearing/5725848





> “Why might that be? Because untrained members of the public are wearing medical masks, repeatedly… in a non-sterile fashion…


Yeah, dont do that.

- (One time wear) 3 layer chirurgical masks can be had for (looking at my amazon order history) 50 cents a pop (Amazon day deal).
- Microwaving them works.
- If you are wearing cloth masks, because you are more environmentally conscious, washing them (after use) works.


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## SG854 (Nov 30, 2020)

UltraSUPRA said:


> This will be my last post for a week.
> https://www.globalresearch.ca/medical-doctor-warns-bacterial-pneumonias-rise-mask-wearing/5725848


Read what you post. Dont just post based on headlines. 

Untrained people are doing it wrong.

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------



UltraSUPRA said:


> Then why is the death rate for all causes lower this year than last year?


Because people are going out less due to lock down. Duh!

They ain't gunna die in a car crash if they drive less.


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## notimp (Dec 1, 2020)

Also, just saw, that this is his source:


> _John C. A. Manley has spent over a decade ghostwriting for medical doctors, as well as naturopaths, chiropractors and Ayurvedic physicians. He publishes the COVID-19(84) Red Pill Briefs – an email-based newsletter dedicated to preventing the governments of the world from using an exaggerated pandemic as an excuse to violate our freedom [...]_


Ehm...

A ghostwriter for medical doctors, as well as chiropractos, ey? That scientific? 

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------



UltraSUPRA said:


> Then why is the death rate for all causes lower this year than last year?


Thats a lie. Over mortality is a thing. Deathrate for all causes is higher this year.

UltraSUPRA once posted a fake facebook meme, that only took CDC data from february until the beginning of november, and then refused to read the debunking fake news article I posted, because - he is who he is.

I even did all the math for him. Looking up the original data source. He didnt care. He wants to post "fear, uncertainty and doubt" snippets aimed at making you more fearful, when he isnt just posting religious propaganda. His world view is made up. His claim to fame is 'sticking to believes' and then only posting stuff that supports them. If that turns out to be completely false - he doesnt care.

Only redemptive quality might be, that he really thinks, that this is the most important thing to do, because those are the highest emotion stories he is reading in his news feeds. Antagonizing everything is fine. But sticking with the same level of believe regardless of any discussion you ever have with the guy is not.

Rebuttle then often is 'but why do you dont get one step closer to my position' and f.e. 'say that you are sorry about what you said about Trump, at least once'? Not realizing that the last time someone said sorry for what they posted on the internet about a politicians behavior, was exactly never.

But he then construes it to be a personal attack against his believes. You cant help that. People believe what they want to. Doesnt mean, that that makes them win a debate - because they have the stronger feelings.

That he doesnt want to 'obey' or 'conform' is ok, btw. I know that feeling. But its not the highest 'value' I hold above everything else.


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## subcon959 (Dec 2, 2020)

@notimp here's a more concise way to sum it up.. he's only 16.


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## notimp (Dec 3, 2020)

subcon959 said:


> @notimp here's a more concise way to sum it up.. he's only 16.


I always forget that. :/ Thanks for the reminder.


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## jimbo13 (Dec 3, 2020)

Just was reading my evening news and I have to say, if you are an American progressive who is still engaging in this nonsense hysteria your either are a useful idiot or a bad citizen for continually tolerating progressive leadership violating their own policies on a routine daily basis while they tell you peasants to stay home.

Austin Mayor (Democrat) Telling people to stay home, in a prerecorded video while on vacay in Cabo.

Until you people as a bloc/community hold these hypocrites to account you really should shut your mouths with the lectures.


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## KingVamp (Dec 3, 2020)

Just because people aren't taking this virus seriously, doesn't make it "nonsense hysteria". 

Not to mention, what makes you think there aren't people trying to hold these people accountable?


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## jimbo13 (Dec 3, 2020)

KingVamp said:


> Jwhat makes you think there aren't people trying to hold these people accountable?



It is a daily occurrence now that aggressive mandating progressive Covid crusaders are caught violating the rules they are imposing on citizens.  I've seen no evidence of outrage, coverage, or censure, of any kind.

Business's and people are being fined, having their professional licenses taken away, this hypocrisy from progressive politicians flaunting the rules they are promoting makes any one supporting these measures a laughing stock.


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## Rj.MoG (Dec 3, 2020)

jimbo13 said:


> It is a daily occurrence now that aggressive mandating progressive Covid crusaders are caught violating the rules they are imposing on citizens.  I've seen no evidence of outrage, coverage, or censure, of any kind.
> 
> Business's and people are being fined, having their professional licenses taken away, this hypocrisy from progressive politicians flaunting the rules they are promoting makes any one supporting these measures a laughing stock.


looks like little baby is just learning we're an oligarch not a democracy


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## notimp (Dec 3, 2020)

US daily death numbers are now the highest they ever were since the beginning of the epidemic:







src: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us

Thats the 'it takes 3-4 weeks for deathrates to catch up with infection rates' reminder for the BUT DEATHRATES ARE SO LOW, WE SHOULDNT DO ANYTHING, OPEN THE STORES! people. 

Relative death rate (compared to how many people currently are infected (much more than in April)) still is lower than in April, because medication got better, and people arent moved onto intubators as quickly (which has been shown to be a negative thing, if done too early) (Roughly).


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## notimp (Dec 3, 2020)

Rj.MoG said:


> looks like little baby is just learning we're an oligarch not a democracy


Correction. This is 'representative democracy' at play. Meaning, your voice only gets someone elected, thats then making decision. You are not making decisions on your own, simply by 'them being popular'.

Thats the fallback, for people wanting Donald Trump types all the time... 

see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_democracy

"Actual" democracy was mostly a thing in ancient greece, where the only people allowed to vote were representatives of the 'master race' (no slaves, no women, no people owing money, ... // have to own property) - so a smaller group.

The idea behind it is as follows. Democracy only works if you tell people 'this is the issue' now take 2 weeks to inform yourselves on it the best you can, and then make a decision.

Otherwise its people with no expertise picking whose face they like better.. 

In reality its always people with no expertise picking whose face they like better, but that doesnt matter so much - if that person "has to produce something" that doesnt get him "fired" by the public, the next time elections come around.

(So in essence all people being informed or not, doesnt matter at all. (If your system prefers sticking to small incremental change (that is not giving 'one person' the power to change quite a bit)).)


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## Rj.MoG (Dec 3, 2020)

notimp said:


> Correction. This is 'representative democracy' at play. Meaning, your voice only gets someone elected, thats then making decision. You are not making decisions on your own, simply by 'them being popular'.
> 
> Thats the fallback, for people wanting Donald Trump types all the time...
> 
> ...


Look the US has already decided that money=freeze peach and that corporations are people. Let's not pretend like we're better here. Our rights are superficial at best.


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## notimp (Dec 3, 2020)

Rj.MoG said:


> Look the US has already decided that money=freeze peach and that corporations are people. Let's not pretend like we're better here. Our rights are superficial at best.


Sure - but in that instance the problem is 'covered' by 'representative democracy'.

So "your outcome is like that, in the best possible case". You dont need oligopoly to explain it. 

Outcome of 'real democracy' (direct democracy) would be much worse. (If 'asked for' in every instance. Again - tell people what the issue is and give them 2 weeks to inform themselves, before a referendum is the 'model' for direct democracy - currently. This means, you only can have them make 'a certain amount of decisions' every year before they feel like not trying to inform themselves..  (Feels like work..  ) )


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## KingVamp (Dec 3, 2020)

jimbo13 said:


> I've seen no evidence of outrage, coverage, or censure, of any kind.


You mean besides the news you are so quick to label fake, reporting on in? I see people from "both sides" over social media complaining about it. 



jimbo13 said:


> Business's and people are being fined, having their professional licenses taken away, this hypocrisy from progressive politicians flaunting the rules they are promoting makes any one supporting these measures a laughing stock.


So, for example, if people support "do not steal" laws and people break them, then the people that supported and followed them are the laughing stocks?


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## jimbo13 (Dec 3, 2020)

KingVamp said:


> So, for example, if people support "do not steal" laws and people break them, then the people that supported and followed them are the laughing stocks?



No,  if you are supporting mandates and lecturing citizens while ignoring the politicians violating their own mandates you are a laughing stock.

According to you this is a life and death situation that is killing people, shouldn't that warrant demands for resignation?  Surely you expect a higher standard out of the person issuing a mandate than the general public.


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## th3joker (Dec 3, 2020)

I was raised on the philosophy of george carlin. I feel the same way he did about humans. We are to self centered to understand we are not destined to outlive the planet earth and its apart of the cycles of life that we hit a peak and then a collapse . Look at literally every great civilization. The ones that just dissapeared and we confused as to why. Well no one was left to spread the story of the collapse. The fact that humans have pushed the general life expectancy up to about 90 instead of 40-60 shows our arrogance that we should call this virus a plague because it has the highest death rate among elderly.  Really no one should be crying over their 70+ year old relatives are dying. They lived full lives. If anything this virus is a blessing because we are headded to a loop of more and more jobs being elderly care takers and the majoriy of the econemy is just health care for the baby boomer generation becoming unselfrelyant.


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## notimp (Dec 3, 2020)

th3joker said:


> I feel the same way he did about humans. We are to self centered to understand we are not destined to outlive the planet earth and its apart of the cycles of life that we hit a peak


Google: How old is earth: "4.543 billion years"
Google: For how long have there been humans: "about 200,000 years"
Google: How long until the sun dies? "about 7 billion to 8 billion years"

Google: How old was George Carlin: "71 years"

Hm that guy wanting to tell you that the issue with humanity is selfcenteredness, and that we all are going to die before the planet dies, seems PRETTY self centered to me.

I mean with climate change we now have a reason to tell Gen Z if they mess up, they influence the trajectory of humans on earth. Carlin had nothing. Just his own feelings.

What a prophet! *sarc*


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## th3joker (Dec 4, 2020)

notimp said:


> Google: How old is earth: "4.543 billion years"
> Google: For how long have there been humans: "about 200,000 years"
> Google: How long until the sun dies? "about 7 billion to 8 billion years"
> 
> ...


You must live a sad boring and verry annoyed life to feel the need to post whore about politics on a forum that is about stealing video games and how to do it. God i shure hope your not on facebook. You a karen baskins. The worst. But feel free to carry on. Your self form of entertainment is amusing.


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## notimp (Dec 4, 2020)

Sorry for having besmudged your hero.

The point made was - everyone looking at those numbers will come to the conclusion, that there is a good chance that humans will not stick around till the end.  (Google: percent of species that have died out: Of all species that have existed on Earth, *99.9 percent* are now extinct.)

The question is, are you emotionally motivated enough to make that your 'enlightning message' to the people? The thing you want to be known for. The lesson you want to imprint on others as a result of your life?

And also with what perspective? Climate change discussion wasnt around then, so the aim was to do it to better humanity? If he can make sense of that - George Carlin was pretty convinced about his own importance in the 200.000 years perspective.

Doesnt mean that he was wrong (there needs to be more humility), but he wasnt humble in the least bit, nor was he shy about promoting his importance.

So whatever conclusion you drew (If we not more humanity, we are destined to die (death cult perspective?), as the prophet George Carlin said.) is misconstrued.

It is an "emotional truth".

Be excellent to each other.


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## MaxToTheMax (Dec 4, 2020)

Great bait. Almost as good as the Election threads. Gonna have to give it a 7/10 however, just because of the opening thesis being so short.


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## notimp (Dec 5, 2020)

> The American Bankers Association said it has asked for the CDC to designate financial services industry as “essential workers,” following guidelines issued by the Department of Homeland Security.


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...id-vaccines-before-most-americans-11607119149


So during the lockdowns - no, thats too much regulation.
But once vaccine is available to essential workers - please designate me, designate me now!


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## notimp (May 13, 2021)

No smoking gun, no evidence, but sources at least not disliked by the US foreign policy reporting "scene" in my country are seeding more material on the 'Covid could have escaped from a lab' theory. 

So dont go around shouting "this is what happened" from tomorrow on - but know that this currently is part of the 'framing' conversation as well. In a less prominent position. 



> VIROLOGY INSTITUTE AS THE ORIGIN?
> New evidence for the hypothesis that Sars-CoV-2 originated in the laboratory
> Science author Nicholas Wade presents indications that speak in favor of an accident in the so-called gain-of-function research. He doesnt produce any evidence
> 
> ...


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## Vila_ (May 14, 2021)

Wow this thread has aged well...


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