# Euroleaks



## notimp (Mar 15, 2020)

Should be worth a look/listen. 

edit: Here is their press release:
https://diem25.org/euroleaks-the-full-2015-eurogroup-recordings-now-public/


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## Alexander1970 (Mar 15, 2020)

Thank you.

https://euroleaks.diem25.org/

For our German speaking Friends:

https://diem25.org/euroleaks-wie-in...-entscheidungen-ueber-unsere-zukunft-treffen/


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## FGFlann (Mar 15, 2020)

Good stuff. Stick it to 'em, Yanis.


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## notimp (Mar 15, 2020)

Also do a google news search to see who is picking it up. Not to particularly follow them (fringe, russian affiliation), but to get a sense how media handling such a story works.

We can talk about about the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chatham_House_Rule later. 

FGFlann is polarizing and popularizing again. Try to make your watching experience not about that.


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## Alexander1970 (Mar 15, 2020)

Thank you.

Unfortunately you can not use this "Rule" in an Divorce...


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## FGFlann (Mar 15, 2020)

notimp said:


> FGFlann is polarizing and popularizing again. Try to make your watching experience not about that.


I refuse. Politics is my entertainment. The drama sustains me.

Also, fuck the European Union.


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## Deleted User (Mar 15, 2020)

FGFlann said:


> Also, fuck the European Union.


Exactly. I'll never support the EU and it's why I was always in favor of U.K. leaving the hot steaming pile of shit that's the EU.

Thank God the Govt never decided to use the crappy Euro currency as Pound is far better.


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## FGFlann (Mar 15, 2020)

But to be serious and back on topic, the lack of transparency in the union should be a concern for everyone, even non-EU nationals.

Yanis is absolutely right on every point he brings up.

If the greater spirit of co-operation and accountability that we believe in is to mean anything, our leaders must make their activities on our behalf known to us.


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## Taleweaver (Mar 15, 2020)

Heb... Talk about coincidence : I just started reading 'the global minotaur'. Varoufakis is one of the few people who can explain the complex situation as it is without me feeling dumb about it (though it certainly is a complex matter). 

Can't watch now, but will watch soon. :-)


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## notimp (Mar 15, 2020)

Ok, lets do this.

You'll hate me for this, but I'll argue the pro EU side on this one, this time (surprise...) 

I'll need multiple prefaces.

Its always important where you start a story. So lets start this one at some people made a generational mistake, then didnt like the consequences, then voted in an idealist for damage control.

That is my insurance policy - in case my other arguments don't work. 

Now forget all of that, because none of it can play a role for my actual argument to work.

Next, I havent watched the actual leaks yet, because I was preoccupied. Will probably do so in the future. You get all the advantage of knowing whats in them, while I only know the preface (video I posted).

Additionally, I believe, that you as a society never should be allowed to have full transparency. More on that later.

Furthermore, I'm only telling a story. Thats all public arguing is. Telling stories. My story has a title.


Some fights you dont win

So lets look at the position of the EU at the start of this one and note down that - you are in a financial crisis, three of your countries economies, two of them quite sizeable, are about to collapse, because they cant get any more credit on their own on the free market. You have your first meeting with greece.

And you do the famous "I think your arguments are riveting, lets do nothing of what you said", here is the plan you sign, gambit.

Alternatively you do the "well that could be an idea that works, we could try that, and see if it works - thank you Yanis, very creative" gambit.

Markets will like one of those better.

To make sure you give markets exactly what they want, you play unfair. You force the narrative. ("That Yanis guy, didn't even bring real plans to the table"). Forcing the narrative is - giving media (or someone) something, most often early on/first that will have an impact on 'how they interpret something complex'". The big 'contextual frame'.

Media hears "... didnt bring plans", copies it down, and runs with it, because - that is their job. They cant be inside the meetings, but everyone tries to get a scoop.

At that point (and now knowing what followed in his personal political career) Yanis is kind of effed, and for all the best reasons doesnt leak tapes right then and there (chaos).

Markets hear what they want to hear - are kind of happy, the whole thing works, the economic system gets stabilized.

If you give Yanis what he wants (reneg), other countries would want to as well, you cant.

When it comes down to signing the 'this is what you sign' papers - to his credit, Schäuble points out a few points that would really f*ck over the greek, and tries to get them out (?), but isnt 'succesfull'.

Everything is done to greece that we now know is done to them, to drive down their living standards slightly below actual productivity. Also you sell out their assets, really as gifts to investors.

Narratives are used that may not be fair. There are revolts. But ultimately they succumb.

Yanis failed (because of "internal party reasons" - that could have been political beyond that). But all troughout this is the moral victor.
--

Now to Yanis points.

- "We demand full transparency"
Very bad idea, and I think he knows it. There is a need for Chatham House Rules, because otherwise - everyone in important discussions always plays the public side of an argument as well and doesnt offer everything they know - or a real effort to work towards 'the best' solution. Which usually isnt the most popular. So - Yanis argument here ultimately is populist.

- Schäuble said, that germany would want to keep all the profits they had made (banks), by preventing the country from failing.
Ultimately imho, this comes down to "actions have consequences" - not because we are heartless, but because we are dealing with markets as the ones we are addressing. If the market hears anything else - they'll interpret it as "anything goes" and monetary obligations will be reneged, which they dont want to hear at all. (You need them to further invest.) You dont just mess with capitalist market logic in that situation.
You can play "good samaritan" behind curtains (or not), but certainly you dont bring "ok, we could reneg" as a center stage argument at the time.

- It was an ok thing to release those tapes now.
Yes, probably. To his credit, they waited five years to release them which is a long enough time to not 'sabotage' what initially was set up (would have produced chaos), and 'the other side leaked to the press first'. Lets go with, thats actually well argued.

- Press 'done bad' bad press, fake news.
Within their mandate, they havent done anything wrong, even while being leaked fraudulent (?) information at the time. They were used. By you badmouthing them and openly calling them out for their mistake - you make sure that their (institutional media (good contacts to gouvernments)) incentive to report your side of the story goes to pretty much zero. You yourself hardly have any reach (28k subs on youtube), so you call it #euroleaks for effect. Big mistake, you lost the public argument then and there.

Public always likes whistleblowers less than the successful guys. You have no media reach, or media sympathy. You lose.

- Was it ok to leak it because of the new legislation attempts (further austerity) that are under way?
I dont know. I havent read them yet. Maybe.

Here we get into 'guilt narratives'. You said that made up ones were being used currently to force further austerity, and that would be a no go. If so you arent necessarily correct. If you buy a "for the greater good narrative", you could eff greeks over, as long as they 'know (have internalized)' its because of what they did. Even if thats a public lie to some extent ('not the entire truth' kind of). Where you get into real problems is, when you drive this for more than a generation, and start to operate with concepts of 'inherited guilt'. I dont think the EU currently does. Although I'm not entirely sure.
--

Thats it basically.

There is a side narrative - based on when the EU knew, that migration pressure from Africa would become a problem, and how to deal with it, that also makes it hard for Greece to 'really win'. Sad to say. I don't know if this is a thing, but it kind of always struck me as inherently possible.
--

On Yanis. Dragging those recordings along with you for five years, knowing that you have them and not being able to release them (for various reasons), must have been hell. I'm glad that he gets to 'exorcise' his demons.  I hope it helps for whatever he is trying to prevent currently.  Personally, morally, he always was in the right. But (*lamealert*) some things are bigger, than a person. Maybe even bigger than the economic outlook of an entire countries generation. (I always had mental flashbacks to the myth of the "salomonic judgment" (giving something up for the greater good), while writing this. Maybe unfairly so.)
As democracies, we at lease dont denounce him. We sideline. (See Bernie..  )

On conventional media not picking it up
This is the hardest one to argue for. National interest, maybe. He also called them names, and indicated a mischaracterization (maybe even willingly) on their behalf, so they definitely dont want to pick it up (f.e. streisand-effect). But again, they should have to, at one point. Probably not giving it much publicity.  Lets watch and see.
--

One final thought on how you solve Yanis' theoretical problem.
You cant make those talks public. Not at the time. I think he knows it.
But you can invite media, and also make them agree to that they are bound by Chatham House Rule agreements. Some events do.

Its probably not proper though to do it, when discussing the future of states.

Some fights, you dont win.

Feel free to openly disagree and argue. 

And tell me whats actually in the leaks if you've already watched them.


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## notimp (Mar 16, 2020)

German news magazine "Der Spiegel" has a human interest story interview with Varoufakis on #euroleaks, but no reporting so far.
[...]

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deut...rstehe-a-5167e153-1a04-45c5-bae6-978bf4b95aab (german)


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## FGFlann (Mar 17, 2020)

It was likely the worst time to release what he has, as the current virus panic means all other stories are drowned out. I'd be very surprised if there's any buzz about this at all.


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## notimp (Mar 17, 2020)

FGFlann said:


> It was likely the worst time to release what he has, as the current virus panic means all other stories are drowned out. I'd be very surprised if there's any buzz about this at all.


Yes but no. Journalistic outlets should still have some reporting on it. (I'm not expecting mass pickup, but at least some (with conventional media) and currently... weaksauce.)

Also, look at the imagery in the "Der Spiegel" article.. Yes, ehm..  (Could you get the background more black, maybe..  Maybe give him a Hacker hoody, while we are at it..  )


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## FGFlann (Mar 17, 2020)

Definitely getting a "Bond villain" vibe from it, lol.


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## notimp (Jun 29, 2020)

Here is the 'what we have learned' part from one of the german highest level applied economics experts. (One of the ones sitting in the committee, that gives the really important expert opinions (https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sachverständigenrat_zur_Begutachtung_der_gesamtwirtschaftlichen_Entwicklung).)

Its an utterly fascinating interview:


But sadly its in german.

Short version: How the European Union reacted in the Greece crisis was wrong, and based on faulty economic doctrine. European Union has changed course, and now is more likely to enact investment programs.

An example that underlines this would be Spain, that did all restructuring of their economy that was needed, then the crisis hit, and the economic performance fell through the floor (appeasing the markets with austerity didnt work), even though their base level values werent so bad, and they did everything that the economic doctrine at the time demanded.

We (EU) changed course (and thinking) early enough so that the EU still exists, but thats the best we can say about it.


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## notimp (Jun 29, 2020)

Here is another video to assess the current situation as an english speaker, from a political point of view:

(german video is far better still  )


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