Trump leading in 5 key swing states

[x65943]

Recent polling has shown a close presidential race for 2023 with Trump and Biden neck and neck for the popular vote

However, as we have seen in 2016, the election is decided by electoral votes and not popular vote

Trump is now leading Biden in 5 key states, and if the 2024 election were held today Trump would likely win 300+ electoral votes - more than enough to catapult him into a non-consecutive second term in office

Biden's traditional backers are moving towards Trump for a host of issues including economic woes and questions regarding the oldest president in history's ability to effectively govern

Black voters are now supporting Trump at 22%, unheard of in modern times

All this is happening while Trump faces multiple criminal charges - which have not appeared to negatively affect his poll numbers

What are your thoughts? Are we looking at a second Trump presidency? Can the Democrats possibly unseat Biden and place an actual popular candidate for president?

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html?smid=url-share

 

[Veho]

Is it just me, or is the electoral college just a continuation of the three-fifths compromise through other means?

 

[x65943]

Is it just me, or is the electoral college just a continuation of the three-fifths compromise through other means?

Considering all the small states that get overrepresented are majority white by huge margins, that's an apt comparison

 

[AncientBoi]

Could care Less. He ain't gonna be presiodent.

 

[x65943]

Could care Less. He ain't gonna be presiodent.

I hope you are right personally, but the data shows he has a good chance

If the election was held today he would likely win

 

[Veho]

I hope you are right personally, but the data shows he has a good chance

If the election was held today he would likely win

I question the validity of that data though.
"Polls say." "Recent polling."
When was the last time you, or anyone you know, took a survey?
Are you sure their sample isn't skewed?

 

[Xzi]

Still too early for threads like this. Odds aren't looking great for Trump to be acquitted in the two felony cases he's facing before the election, by the letter of constitutional law he's disqualified himself from holding office ever again, and the people who respond to polling outside of election years tend to be more fringe than average.

All this is happening while Trump faces multiple criminal charges - which have not appeared to negatively affect his poll numbers

Indicted and convicted are two very different things. I do believe Republicans are corrupt enough to nominate a man in prison as their candidate, but I don't believe they'd be able to overcome the logistics and negative optics of that.

 

[RAHelllord]

Polls mean very little, particularly a year before the actual vote happens. While many places try their best to get a representative slice of the population it's always just that, a small slice of the population.

Never listen to the polls, go vote yourself directly, and get everyone else you know that is eligible to vote as well.

 

[Taleweaver]

Though I've got some remarks to place (which I'll get to in a minute), I have to say it's worrying. Sorry: more so than usual. The "usual" worry is that Trump's fanbase is both very devoted and very large. That's probably why all these lawsuits are so very much in his favor(1), but either way it was a large and devoted group.
The "new" worry is that Biden is losing supporters to Trump. And that is something I really can't comprehend. Because if there's one opinion everyone agrees on about this guy, it's that he's controversial. You can't have a neutral opinion on him because then he attacks you until you either praise or hate him. So how are people switching sides?
Yes, I know: Biden's not exactly popular now that yet another war has broken out, the economy's not exactly looking up and so on. But I honestly can't understand why people would rather vote for Trump than for Biden when they had picked Biden earlier?

As for the remarks: the main one's about the poll's integrity. As in: either it's (pretended) objective, or it's flat out biassed (and therefore useless). And the fact that Trump is compared to Biden says something. On the democratic side, there's no real opposition, so Biden's the obvious candidate. But last I checked, the republicans haven't had their presidential nominee picked yet. Yes, Trump has been the front runner ever since he announced he's running(2), but what does that say exactly? Around this time four years ago, Bernie Sanders was the most popular democratic nominee by far(3) whereas Biden was just "one of many" candidates. Democrats haven't really started the presidential race yet, and on both sides the financial sponsors really determine who gets the most attention. Heck...Trump might not even be on the ballot if US's constitution is worth anything(4).
So...with a poll outright ignoring all other candidates, what legitimacy does it really have?

Second: how do these polls stack up even if it isn't blatant propaganda? They were far off the marks in the last two elections, and that was with meta-data (so the general average of multiple polls). Exactly how are things different now?
Like...it's no secret that rural and older populations skew more republican and younger and/or urbans are more likely to go democratic. As such, it's relatively easy to mess up, even unintended, by not having a large and diverse enough voting pool.


(1): I'm aware Trump claims the exact opposite. But anyone else would've been in jail awaiting trial right now.
(2): despite missing all debates and honestly not revealing anything he would do that isn't akin to the "build the wall" pipedream
(3): though admittedly: not with a lead like Donald has right now
(4): okay, okay: I admit it...that particular trial's a long shot. But the chances he'll be in prison by then is simply very likely

 

[x65943]

Though I've got some remarks to place (which I'll get to in a minute), I have to say it's worrying. Sorry: more so than usual. The "usual" worry is that Trump's fanbase is both very devoted and very large. That's probably why all these lawsuits are so very much in his favor(1), but either way it was a large and devoted group.
The "new" worry is that Biden is losing supporters to Trump. And that is something I really can't comprehend. Because if there's one opinion everyone agrees on about this guy, it's that he's controversial. You can't have a neutral opinion on him because then he attacks you until you either praise or hate him. So how are people switching sides?
Yes, I know: Biden's not exactly popular now that yet another war has broken out, the economy's not exactly looking up and so on. But I honestly can't understand why people would rather vote for Trump than for Biden when they had picked Biden earlier?

As for the remarks: the main one's about the poll's integrity. As in: either it's (pretended) objective, or it's flat out biassed (and therefore useless). And the fact that Trump is compared to Biden says something. On the democratic side, there's no real opposition, so Biden's the obvious candidate. But last I checked, the republicans haven't had their presidential nominee picked yet. Yes, Trump has been the front runner ever since he announced he's running(2), but what does that say exactly? Around this time four years ago, Bernie Sanders was the most popular democratic nominee by far(3) whereas Biden was just "one of many" candidates. Democrats haven't really started the presidential race yet, and on both sides the financial sponsors really determine who gets the most attention. Heck...Trump might not even be on the ballot if US's constitution is worth anything(4).
So...with a poll outright ignoring all other candidates, what legitimacy does it really have?

Second: how do these polls stack up even if it isn't blatant propaganda? They were far off the marks in the last two elections, and that was with meta-data (so the general average of multiple polls). Exactly how are things different now?
Like...it's no secret that rural and older populations skew more republican and younger and/or urbans are more likely to go democratic. As such, it's relatively easy to mess up, even unintended, by not having a large and diverse enough voting pool.


(1): I'm aware Trump claims the exact opposite. But anyone else would've been in jail awaiting trial right now.
(2): despite missing all debates and honestly not revealing anything he would do that isn't akin to the "build the wall" pipedream
(3): though admittedly: not with a lead like Donald has right now
(4): okay, okay: I admit it...that particular trial's a long shot. But the chances he'll be in prison by then is simply very likely

The poll put Biden against Trump because that is the most likely competition, but they also poll for other combinations including Desantis vs Biden, but honestly that's an unlikely contest. But you can find tons of polls for other combos if you are interested

As far as Trump's ability to run, imho very unlikely these criminal cases are decided by election time next year - these things tend to be very drawn out, and appeals happen etc. Not to mention will any of it stick? And the only ones who can bar him from running are Congress - not the courts, you can legally run from prison you know (and it has been done before)

As far as supporters leaving Biden and heading to Trump - it is confusing. Trump has doubled his black vote from 2016 to 2020, and this poll suggests he doubled it again from 2020 until now. I will say some people I knew who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 did vote for him in 2020. I think it's people getting sucked into the culture war - at least that was my experience for people I knew personally. So many people are just wanting to vote for an "anti woke" candidate

Sure you can say this poll is early, but it is very worrying that so many swing states (unfortunately in our system the only ones that matter for a election) are pivoting to Trump. If this holds steady or continues then 2024 will be a red sweep

 

[Chris2055]

The only 2 possibilities I can think of are:

1. Something is wrong with the polling methodology.
2. Something is wrong with the electorate.

I personally think it's the former, but if it is the latter then I guess we deserve what we get.

 

[supermist]

These kind of polling samples are questionable. We saw the same thing with the midterms only to see millennials and gen z come out and prevent that "red wave"

I'd suspect the same thing is happening here. Who are these pollsters?

 

[Xzi]

As far as Trump's ability to run, imho very unlikely these criminal cases are decided by election time next year - these things tend to be very drawn out, and appeals happen etc.

They're scheduled in Spring for a reason, the judges know the electorate is entitled to a speedy resolution. The 14th Amendment issue has to be decided before a number of states will even allow his name on the ballot.

Not to mention will any of it stick?

He just lost his entire business empire in a case with less evidence stacked against him than the others. He's going to have trouble continuing to fund his already less-than-competent defense lawyers throughout this whole thing.

And the only ones who can bar him from running are Congress - not the courts, you can legally run from prison you know (and it has been done before)

14th Amendment, Section 3 bars him from running for office again in no uncertain terms. Doesn't require a conviction or the go-ahead from courts or Congress, but given it's been so long since it was last relevant, of course lawyers want to get involved anyway.

 

[TraderPatTX]

Don't mind me, I'm just marveling at the massive amounts of cope in this thread.

 

[Xzi]

Don't mind me, I'm just marveling at the massive amounts of cope in this thread.

See, this is the type of cultist loser who would be responding to polling right now. Probably has a landline set up for it specifically.

 

[supermist]

See, this is the type of cultist loser who would be responding to polling right now. Probably has a landline set up for it specifically.

He's demonstrated before that he doesn't have a basic understanding of numbers.

 

[Hanafuda]

Makes no sense to me either. I mean, everything's been going so great the last three years.

 

[supermist]

Makes no sense to me either. I mean, everything's been going so great the last three years.

Absolutely, compared to the shit show of the Trump presidency.

Unemployment rates are at an all time low and we're back to normalcy after an objective failure of a response to a global pandemic. One can only assume anyone still willing to vote for Trump is an objectively stupid individual. That's not up for debate.

 

[x65943]

They're scheduled in Spring for a reason, the judges know the electorate is entitled to a speedy resolution. The 14th Amendment issue has to be decided before a number of states will even allow his name on the ballot.


He just lost his entire business empire in a case with less evidence stacked against him than the others. He's going to have trouble continuing to fund his already less-than-competent defense lawyers throughout this whole thing.


14th Amendment, Section 3 bars him from running for office again in no uncertain terms. Doesn't require a conviction or the go-ahead from courts or Congress, but given it's been so long since it was last relevant, of course lawyers want to get involved anyway.

"in no uncertain terms"

"Section 3. No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may, by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability."

So this bit here?

"shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same"

Yeah if they actually tried to stop him from running that would go to the SCOTUS, and seeing how the conservative majority has treated the law lately - I think it's VERY safe to say they won't bar Mr. Trump from running

Unless you think Clarence Thomas is going to have a change of heart

 

[Hanafuda]

Absolutely, compared to the shit show of the Trump presidency.

HFS my sides. What planet are you living on? Take a look at the news then go buy some shit at the grocery store.