Trump leading in 5 key swing states

[Xzi]

Tbf, they tried that 60 votes nonsense in August, since even Republicans thought it had a good chance of passing.

True, but Dems almost entirely retained or gained nationwide, even in other red states. Turnout was slightly up overall for Democrats, way down for Republicans. Might've had something to do with Trump telling them not to vote.

 

[Chris2055]

I have a friend who contracts with the DNC and has access to more accurate internal polling. They're not the sort to sugar coat and shill for bad people on their side either, they've shared a lot of information about really nasty corruption and horrible behavior in their ranks (some from people you would expect, some from people you wouldn't). Their data has proven to be tremendously more accurate than any of the publicly shared stuff. They accurately predicted results since 2016, both with the presidency and the senate/house. This includes the midterms where they were spot on about the senate/house results. And they also knew Hillary Clinton was going to lose the electoral college in 2016.

For what it's worth, my friend isn't worried about Biden's chances at all in 2024. This sort of confirmed my own suspicions, and i'm not even a fan of Biden myself (though he's been more tolerable than I expected despite congressional gridlock). Biden is expected to win in 2024 and also potentially do better than he did in 2020. He's actually won over a lot of progressives who were skeptical of him at first. And his pro-union stances have also endeared him with both lefties as well as a wide variety of blue collar workers. He'll also have an incumbency advantage now. Granted, we're still a year away and anything can shift the tides.

The midterms are also pointing towards Democrats being much stronger than media/polls claim. It wasn't anywhere near the sort of red wave blowout everyone was predicting. Midterms are usually a bloodbath for unpopular presidents, but the Republican gains were quite lackluster. They won the house by a slim margin (most of which wasn't even because of popularity of their candidates over Dems, but rather gerrymandering), but lost a couple of seats in the senate so that Dems upped their majority a bit there. Democrats have also been doing extremely well in a bunch of local and special elections lately. With abortion stances in particular having devastating effects on the Republican party, far moreso than I personally expected (but again was predicted by my source).

It should be noted that public polls are manipulated by shoddy questions and cherry picked demographics. This isn't new either, a ton of polls were dead wrong about both 2016 and 2020 elections. But there's also outright intentional dishonesty from the media as well. Corporate media actually love Trump because he was a ratings factory for them. But ever since Biden was elected, there's been a massive dip in ratings. And that isn't acceptable to investors or executives who demand constant ever increasing unsustainable growth into infinity. He's actually very sorely missed by the executives running all of these conglomerates. They want him to win in 2024. Regardless of what they pretend otherwise or whether they're perceived as conservative or liberal leaning.

Everything you said here has merit, especially the stuff about the mainstream media. It's all too obvious for anyone that watched CNN before and after 2020. That said, anyone that isn't worried about the 2024 election is a fool. The stakes are simply too high not to be concerned.

 

[Jayro]

I hope you are right personally, but the data shows he has a good chance

If the election was held today he would likely win

I don't know about that... Lately the red party has been at each-other's throats. I feel like they're too divided to agree on a single candidate, and Biden will win by a landslide once again. And that's if we don't invoke the 14th amendment to get him off the ballot.

 

[TraderPatTX]

How is Biden "sleep walking" us straight into World War III? What would you do differently?

I would do whatever Trump did during his presidency when Israel wasn't attacked and Putin didn't invade other countries like Bush (Georgia), Obama (Crimea) and Biden (Ukraine) allowed.

I know what Trump would do differently. He would attempt to settle the matter by giving Russia Ukraine's territory which would only embolden Putin and fascist dictators around the world. No surprise since Trump envies them and has a similar vision for America.

Explain how you came to this conclusion.

 

[KingVamp]

Except it is "MAGA" trying to block Ukraine funding.

 

[supermist]

I would do whatever Trump did during his presidency when Israel wasn't attacked and Putin didn't invade other countries like Bush (Georgia), Obama (Crimea) and Biden (Ukraine) allowed.

Explain how you came to this conclusion.

He probably came to the conclusion by actually paying attention.

 

[Chris2055]

I would do whatever Trump did during his presidency when Israel wasn't attacked and Putin didn't invade other countries like Bush (Georgia), Obama (Crimea) and Biden (Ukraine) allowed.

What specifically did Trump do or not do during his presidency that prevented Putin from invading other countries? What makes you think Biden being the president has anything to do with Hamas' attack on Israel or Putin's decision to invade Ukraine? Everything that happens in the world can't be attributed to POTUS, there must be a direct cause-effect relationship between the actions taken.

If Trump was POTUS, Putin would've still invaded Ukraine. The only difference is Trump would've sided with Putin instead of with democracy because Trump is a Putin boot-licking wannabe fascist.

 

[TraderPatTX]

What specifically did Trump do or not do during his presidency that prevented Putin from invading other countries? What makes you think Biden being the president has anything to do with Hamas' attack on Israel or Putin's decision to invade Ukraine? Everything that happens in the world can't be attributed to POTUS, there must be a direct cause-effect relationship between the actions taken.

When the world believes the US is weak, they will go and do what they want to do. When you give a sponsor to terrorism $6 billion, don't be surprised when they attack Israel while chanting "Death to America" and "Death to Israel". It's not rocket science. All you need is a web browser and a bit of curiosity, which you obviously lack.

If Trump was POTUS, Putin would've still invaded Ukraine. The only difference is Trump would've sided with Putin instead of with democracy because Trump is a Putin boot-licking wannabe fascist.

Once again, you are making comments not supported by reality. The fact that you can't show proof tells everyone here that you are full of shit.

 

[Chris2055]

When the world believes the US is weak, they will go and do what they want to do. When you give a sponsor to terrorism $6 billion, don't be surprised when they attack Israel while chanting "Death to America" and "Death to Israel". It's not rocket science. All you need is a web browser and a bit of curiosity, which you obviously lack.

Your argument might make sense if the world actually believed the US was stronger under Trump than it is under Biden, but clearly that's not the case. Most world leaders saw Trump for what he was. An ignorant bigot. A joke. A literal laughing stock.

Once again, you are making comments not supported by reality. The fact that you can't show proof tells everyone here that you are full of shit.

Proof of what? You can't prove what someone would've done. What you can do is infer what they would've done from what they've said and past trends in their policy. Considering Trump has praised authoritarian leaders on multiple occasions, sided with Putin over U.S. intelligence, and has stated he would "settle" the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, it's clear how he would do that.

 

[supermist]

When the world believes the US is weak, they will go and do what they want to do. When you give a sponsor to terrorism $6 billion, don't be surprised when they attack Israel while chanting "Death to America" and "Death to Israel". It's not rocket science. All you need is a web browser and a bit of curiosity, which you obviously lack.

Once again, you are making comments not supported by reality. The fact that you can't show proof tells everyone here that you are full of shit.

You believe that the election was stolen from Trump. You literally do not live in reality.

 

[x65943]

You believe that the election was stolen from Trump. You literally do not live in reality.

Says the same guy who doesn't believe these polls are accurate because you don't want to believe an unpleasant reality

 

[supermist]

Says the same guy who doesn't believe these polls are accurate because you don't want to believe an unpleasant reality

How did the 2022 midterms and the elections play out this week again?

 

[x65943]

How did the 2022 midterms and the elections play out this week again?

Explain to me how that is related to the very specific polling that Trump is leading in 5/6 swing states

Yes the popular vote is nearly split even, but the specific state polling which is what actually decides the president is very much in Mr Trump's favor

Learn to logic please

 

[supermist]

Explain to me how that is related to the very specific polling that Trump is leading in 5/6 swing states

Yes the popular vote is nearly split even, but the specific state polling which is what actually decides the president is very much in Mr Trump's favor

Learn to logic please

It's related to an observable pattern where we keep hearing Republicans are going to clean house and it continues to not happen.

And again the polling methods are questionable. Where are these polls happening and who is being interviewed?

 

[x65943]

It's related to an observable pattern where we keep hearing Republicans are going to clean house and it continues to not happen.

And again the polling methods are questionable. Where are these polls happening and who is being interviewed?

All of your questions have exceedingly well documented answers one google search away

Scroll to the bottom of this page

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...es-siena-battlegrounds-registered-voters.html

You can ignore the writing on the wall, but ultimately it's more dangerous to ignore unpleasant truths than it is to face them and try to change them

 

[Chris2055]

All of your questions have exceedingly well documented answers one google search away

Scroll to the bottom of this page

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...es-siena-battlegrounds-registered-voters.html

You can ignore the writing on the wall, but ultimately it's more dangerous to ignore unpleasant truths than it is to face them and try to change them

I don't see how anyone is going to change the mind(s) of anyone ignorant enough to vote for Trump at this point. I do apologize in advance. I don't intend for that to sound mean, it's just how I feel. So much has happened. Trump has made clear his agenda and his intentions. He is transparent about it. Anyone willing to vote for him at this point is essentially locked in.

Also, supermist is correct. Polling has been doom and gloom for the democrats and yet they are outperforming expectations. See the most recent elections in VA, Kentucky and Ohio for concrete examples.

 

[supermist]

I mean I can continue to review it but this stands out as far as who was polled (see attachment).

Post automatically merged: Nov 10, 2023

Furthermore, the margin of error appears to be within the supposed lead Trump has:

The New York Times/Siena College polls of 3,662 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from Oct. 22 to Nov. 3, 2023. When all states are joined together, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 1.8 percentage points for all registered voters and plus or minus 2 percentage points for the likely electorate. The margin of sampling error for each state poll is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points in Arizona, Michigan and Nevada, plus or minus 4.5 points in Georgia, plus or minus 4.6 points in Pennsylvania and plus or minus 4.8 points in Wisconsin.

 

[KingVamp]

Pennsylvania also voted blue for the supreme court.

 

[TraderPatTX]

Your argument might make sense if the world actually believed the US was stronger under Trump than it is under Biden, but clearly that's not the case. Most world leaders saw Trump for what he was. An ignorant bigot. A joke. A literal laughing stock.

Please provide evidence for this conclusion, and then explain why these wars were not breaking while Trump was president and North Korea stopped firing rockets, only to start back up once Biden took office.

Proof of what? You can't prove what someone would've done. What you can do is infer what they would've done from what they've said and past trends in their policy. Considering Trump has praised authoritarian leaders on multiple occasions, sided with Putin over U.S. intelligence, and has stated he would "settle" the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, it's clear how he would do that.

Infering is not proof. Once again, did Putin invade any country while Trump was president or has he only gone into countries while the uniparty was in charge? You don't even need to infer, just observe without your TDS bias clouding your judgement.

Post automatically merged: Nov 12, 2023

You believe that the election was stolen from Trump. You literally do not live in reality.

Except that's not what all the affidavits and witness testimony show. You only pay attention to the billionaire propaganda corporate media. You should instead pay closer attention to court cases. You'll learn a lot more and have a deeper understanding than what MSNBC or Fox News can provide.

 

[Chris2055]

Please provide evidence for this conclusion, and then explain why these wars were not breaking while Trump was president and North Korea stopped firing rockets, only to start back up once Biden took office.

Correlation does not imply causation. To be clear, that means that the mere fact that these wars are occurring while Biden is the president doesn't mean that any of his policies or actions have anything to do with it. However, if you can point to some concrete reason under Biden that caused them to happen, that would be different. A good example is North Korea and their rockets. The fact that they stopped firing the rockets during most of the Trump Administration was indeed the result of Trump. It was the result of Trump giving a brutal dictator validity by meeting with him which made the U.S. look weak and ultimately achieved nothing.

Infering is not proof. Once again, did Putin invade any country while Trump was president or has he only gone into countries while the uniparty was in charge? You don't even need to infer, just observe without your TDS bias clouding your judgement.

Of course it's not proof. Did you read the section of my post that you quoted where I clearly said you can't prove what someone would've done? Again correlation does not imply causation.

Except that's not what all the affidavits and witness testimony show. You only pay attention to the billionaire propaganda corporate media. You should instead pay closer attention to court cases. You'll learn a lot more and have a deeper understanding than what MSNBC or Fox News can provide.

I don't even know why I'm wasting my time responding.