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What med school did you drop out of?
And I'll bet you regret your idiotic title now. And not just because blaming "the media" (as if it is one thing with one agenda) is lazy and ignorant. The sort of thing FauxNews viewers do (apparently blissfully unaware that FauxNews IS their media).
Case fatality rate per age-group (in Italy and China):
src: https://www.vox.com/2020/4/1/21203198/coronavirus-deaths-us-italy-china-south-korea
Case fatality rate of a normal flu is 0.1% btw.
src: https://www.vox.com/2020/4/1/21203198/coronavirus-deaths-us-italy-china-south-korea
Case fatality rate of a normal flu is 0.1% btw.
Last edited by notimp,
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There are already mass graves in certain countries which can be seen from space. It's not a false flag, but that doesn't mean authoritarians won't use the cover of a pandemic to consolidate power and/or profit from death. This includes the US, where a bill called "EARN IT" is currently making its way through congress. I recommend researching it yourself, but the gist of its purpose is to eliminate all end-to-end encryption on the internet, leaving everyone's info exposed to governments and hackers worldwide.
Last edited by Xzi,
I would be much more willing to believe its a prematurely escaped bio-weapon from Wuhan rather than bat soup. All of that for sure over "5G" towers.
Same.
But only for bat soup in specific. (As in cooked. )
Here is the disclaimer for 'why bats'. You basically can see it in the virus RNA, where it originated from. Viruses mutate, and if certain mutations made it more 'adaptive' to a certain genome over generations (of mutations), or organism apparently it is visible in the virus' RNA.
Why bats advanced part. They have high 'anti inflammatory' something (forgot ), which make their immune systems highly effective - as far as them not dying from virus infections. Which means they can host all sorts of viruses and transmit them longterm - without them dying.
Why bats economic part. As human populations grow they depend on a variety of food sources to sustain populations. Bush meat (bats 'n stuff) is one of them. Sure - also depends on taste, but if you've nothing else you can afford... You'll eat that as well.
So 'it jumped (mutated into transmittable to humans) from a bat' is not that far of a stretch. With Sars it jumped from cats and ferrets ( https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3323218/ ). You have to remember that 60% of the genome between a human and a fruit fly are actually the same ( https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2004/03feb_fruitfly ). There is another important part to this and that is - transmitable from a carrier animal to humans, is not the same as transmittable from human to human. If it needs an animal as a carrier - spread is much less problematic - as with other Sars viruses in the past. So this one originated from an animal - but then also was human to human transmittable - which was tough luck.
In an odd turn of events, making it originate from bats - first is not unlikely and second even acts as a counter to "manufactured in a lab" - because it would be very hard to get the 'false flag, evolved in bats mostly' stuff into the viruses RNA. (Not sure if you theoretically could. )
Lastly, and this is an odd thing about how our logic systems work. Past Sars infection paths originated in cats. Oddly - just by feel, people should find it more palpable that it would, just because they can imagine themselves interacting with cats. So whoever would think of designing the virus on purpose - would have had a free pick of original host animal - and decided to pick bat - in our theoretical example (Is it you Batman!?). So the logic path 'bat seems unlikely > therefore it had to be designed' doesnt work. Its failed procedural logic.
Yet it feels so - intuitively correct.. (Because its hard for us to imagine interactions with bats.)
But only for bat soup in specific.
(As in cooked. )Here is the disclaimer for 'why bats'. You basically can see it in the virus RNA, where it originated from. Viruses mutate, and if certain mutations made it more 'adaptive' to a certain genome over generations (of mutations), or organism apparently it is visible in the virus' RNA.
Why bats advanced part. They have high 'anti inflammatory' something (forgot
), which make their immune systems highly effective - as far as them not dying from virus infections. Which means they can host all sorts of viruses and transmit them longterm - without them dying.Why bats economic part. As human populations grow they depend on a variety of food sources to sustain populations. Bush meat (bats 'n stuff) is one of them. Sure - also depends on taste, but if you've nothing else you can afford... You'll eat that as well.
So 'it jumped (mutated into transmittable to humans) from a bat' is not that far of a stretch. With Sars it jumped from cats and ferrets ( https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3323218/ ). You have to remember that 60% of the genome between a human and a fruit fly are actually the same ( https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2004/03feb_fruitfly ). There is another important part to this and that is - transmitable from a carrier animal to humans, is not the same as transmittable from human to human. If it needs an animal as a carrier - spread is much less problematic - as with other Sars viruses in the past. So this one originated from an animal - but then also was human to human transmittable - which was tough luck.
In an odd turn of events, making it originate from bats - first is not unlikely and second even acts as a counter to "manufactured in a lab" - because it would be very hard to get the 'false flag, evolved in bats mostly' stuff into the viruses RNA. (Not sure if you theoretically could.
)Lastly, and this is an odd thing about how our logic systems work. Past Sars infection paths originated in cats. Oddly - just by feel, people should find it more palpable that it would, just because they can imagine themselves interacting with cats. So whoever would think of designing the virus on purpose - would have had a free pick of original host animal - and decided to pick bat - in our theoretical example (Is it you Batman!?). So the logic path 'bat seems unlikely > therefore it had to be designed' doesnt work. Its failed procedural logic.
Yet it feels so - intuitively correct..
(Because its hard for us to imagine interactions with bats.)
Last edited by notimp,
Hey, that Icke guy's still at it, ey. Reptilians in our government was a boon.
edit: Just heard on Democracy Now, that black people are reportedly twice as likely to die from Covid 19 in the US than white folks.... (The virus (likely) doesnt discriminate... (Social conditions do ('projects'). )
--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------
Japan is about to declare a national emergency. (Highest death rate since the begining of the crisis.) Their testing so far wasnt extensive. So whatever they did (not so strict social distancing.) - alone, didnt help.
Reptilians in our government was a boon. edit: Just heard on Democracy Now, that black people are reportedly twice as likely to die from Covid 19 in the US than white folks....
(The virus (likely) doesnt discriminate... (Social conditions do ('projects'). )--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------
Japan is about to declare a national emergency. (Highest death rate since the begining of the crisis.) Their testing so far wasnt extensive. So whatever they did (not so strict social distancing.) - alone, didnt help.
Last edited by notimp,
Black Americans are prone to hypertension and heart problems:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4108512/
Possible genetic component.
COVID-19 mortality is higher for people with heart conditions and hypertension:
https://www.webmd.com/lung/coronavirus-high-blood-pressure#1
https://www.businessinsider.com/cor...isting-conditions-heart-disease-cancer-2020-2
So black Americans have a higher percentage of hypertension, patients with hypertension have a higher risk of dying from COVID-9, meaning they are at a higher risk.
To document, that there still is a societal issue. Because Covid 19 doesnt discriminate (presumably), its a good measure of 'inequality' thats - still - in the system.
So in short, because its 'quite interesting'.
Last edited by notimp,
Ok, massive new info dump from Karl Lauterbach (health political spokesperson of the german SPD (party on the center left)).
Current strategy is not just mitigation but suppression. Mitigation would be possible if we could bank on a vaccine / very viable treatment option within this year - we probably cant - vaccine development and production will take 18+ months, and thats already a very ambitious goal.
Target of suppression is to keep infection rate in the overall population - sustained (so for a long time) - well below 10%. In germany with case numbers of about 100 new infections every day - and thats sustained (you need social control meassures (distancing, chirurgical style masks, ..) to keep that sustained - and not breaking out into exponentiality again), you would then do individual follow ups. So isolate the people, talk to them, ask them which people they were in contact with and insist on them self isolating as well.
If you cant reach that low number for new infections (about 100 a day in germany), with sustained low growth rates, you cant do individual follow ups, which means much higher risks of new infection herds (groups of people) being undetected, and a far higher risk, of the epidemic breaking out large scale in fall once more.
If you dont manage to curb rate of new infections to that point, you are talking about massive societal fallout.
Two important points - by fall you will have overworked your clinic personal to a point where they basically clink out - and -
it isnt only death rate. Of the people with serious (as in heavy) progression of the illness - death figures arent the only important aspect to look at. Even with survivors you are talking about scar tissue in the lungs, reduced lung functions, higher risk of dementia, lower life expectancy - and much increased longterm costs.
edit: The factor here is about 5x that of every person dying from Covid 19.
About populations under risk.
In germany - if you go through all risk factors, about a third of the population is 'at risk'. Thats too many to isolate them as a group.
In the US up to 60% of your population.
(Thats people who smoked, are in treatment for high bloodbreassure and are over 60, people with asthma, preexisting conditions, and so on and so forth.)
-
He is in contact with health experts at Harvard, and they tell him, that the epidemic in the US is entirely uncontrolled at this point even in rural regions. Which means, high risk of it coming back stronger in the fall.
-
His comment on Sweden is, that they can maintain the current strategy of limited social isolation mostly because of population density (not very dense - especially in the north), and that they have low case numbers in cities as well - for now. Once their situation changes, they will/would change measures as well.
So short summery. Its dire.
src: h**ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-73gTjn-TVM (german)
A strategy of supression is what sourth korea operated on, btw.
And for the US, at this point thats already outside of the realm of possibility. (So all thats left is curbing the curve so it moves below health system capacity.)
Current strategy is not just mitigation but suppression. Mitigation would be possible if we could bank on a vaccine / very viable treatment option within this year - we probably cant - vaccine development and production will take 18+ months, and thats already a very ambitious goal.
Target of suppression is to keep infection rate in the overall population - sustained (so for a long time) - well below 10%. In germany with case numbers of about 100 new infections every day - and thats sustained (you need social control meassures (distancing, chirurgical style masks, ..) to keep that sustained - and not breaking out into exponentiality again), you would then do individual follow ups. So isolate the people, talk to them, ask them which people they were in contact with and insist on them self isolating as well.
If you cant reach that low number for new infections (about 100 a day in germany), with sustained low growth rates, you cant do individual follow ups, which means much higher risks of new infection herds (groups of people) being undetected, and a far higher risk, of the epidemic breaking out large scale in fall once more.
If you dont manage to curb rate of new infections to that point, you are talking about massive societal fallout.
Two important points - by fall you will have overworked your clinic personal to a point where they basically clink out - and -
it isnt only death rate. Of the people with serious (as in heavy) progression of the illness - death figures arent the only important aspect to look at. Even with survivors you are talking about scar tissue in the lungs, reduced lung functions, higher risk of dementia, lower life expectancy - and much increased longterm costs.
edit: The factor here is about 5x that of every person dying from Covid 19.
About populations under risk.
In germany - if you go through all risk factors, about a third of the population is 'at risk'. Thats too many to isolate them as a group.
In the US up to 60% of your population.
(Thats people who smoked, are in treatment for high bloodbreassure and are over 60, people with asthma, preexisting conditions, and so on and so forth.)
-
He is in contact with health experts at Harvard, and they tell him, that the epidemic in the US is entirely uncontrolled at this point even in rural regions. Which means, high risk of it coming back stronger in the fall.
-
His comment on Sweden is, that they can maintain the current strategy of limited social isolation mostly because of population density (not very dense - especially in the north), and that they have low case numbers in cities as well - for now. Once their situation changes, they will/would change measures as well.
So short summery. Its dire.
src: h**ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-73gTjn-TVM (german)
A strategy of supression is what sourth korea operated on, btw.
And for the US, at this point thats already outside of the realm of possibility. (So all thats left is curbing the curve so it moves below health system capacity.)
Last edited by notimp,
All I can say is I am happy that people in my state aren't hoarding as bad as other and actually taking the virus seriously.
We've only got about 500 cases and only 10 deaths.
I genuinely feel for all those that have either lost a loved one or their jobs to this and I hope like hell things improve quickly.
We've only got about 500 cases and only 10 deaths.
I genuinely feel for all those that have either lost a loved one or their jobs to this and I hope like hell things improve quickly.
You need testing capability of several tens of thousand tests a day just for medical personal and people with more serious progressions of the virus. People in the medical sector have to be tested repeatedly and have to be put in shortlists for that.
From a political perspective case rates can be extrapolated from death rates, so people with more serious progressions also are on shortlists to be tested first.
(You basically can ignore infected numbers by now - tests were not statistically normally distributed.)
Even the antibody tests you want to get set up to see actual case rate will not show you that 30% of people already have had it and are now fine, but are needed for better projections.
According to Karl Lauterbach.
What I'm saying is the following. Test numbers are heavily scewed right now by availability. Death numbers are the ones (in terms of absolute numbers) to go by (extrapolate from there). If you want to aim for a supression strategy (south korea), you need testing availability thats manyfold of what many countries currently have.
Meaning - higher total fatality rate than south korea.
100.000-240.000 deaths, which is the current official projection in the US only make sense in any capacity, if spread can be limited to a small subset of populations for at least 18 months (until mass availability of vaccines).
Even if you take the 240.000 number, say its the result from a death rate of 1%, that means that 24 million people would be infected, which would only be 7% of US population. So that would still be in line with a suppression strategy. But - from what I've heard yesterday, the US is well past that being viable - which means, reported projected death numbers are wrong. Imperial college London projected deathrate for the US is 2 million, which - extrapolating with a 1% death rate would mean 60% of the US being infected before the virus can be stopped.
Thats closer to reality. If I'm not missing anything of a magnitude of actual deathrate would be 0.1% (normal flu levels), which is unlikely.
--
People hoarding stuff is not a real problem (if they arent hoarding medical equipment), because for daily need items (food 'n stuff) you dont have a supply side problem. So people can only buy that much - storage was full during the store runs, its just that people couldnt put stuff onto the shelves fast enough. With the exception of maybe hand sanitizers - which arent crucial (soap works as well). So thats mostly a perception issue (people talking about what the crisis means to them).
edit: Here is a source for Imperial College London models:
https://www.theatlantic.com/technol...avirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/
Last edited by notimp,
Ah, I think I've got my logic error.
Death rate of of normal flu should be 0.1% of people showing symptoms. Which with herd immunity built up would not be close to actual population numbers.
That would account for a factor of 10 or 20x
Meaning, if you can curb the curve - 100.000-240.000 deaths still sound like a possibility. Maybe. (Exponential stuff = wrecks me brains in)
edit:
What still gets me is a projected fatality rate of 100.000 - because still in the ballpark of a bad flu year for the US:
(Take this number and multiply by edit: 1.5 (because it projects only half a year))
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
Forbes to the rescue:
(read this)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshua...eaths-hinges-on-key-assumptions/#4fd291b8144e
There we go, this makes more sense:
In an optimal scenario.
There you have it - this is what the US is heading for.
Example calculations:
70% (where pandemic stops naturally) of entire US population is 228 mio
0.04% of that is 100.000
0.1% of that is 240.000
0.5% is 1.1 million
and
1% are 2.2 million
Also 100.000 dead is a (a bit higher than) normal flu years worth of deaths for the US, so make of that information what you will.
Death rate of of normal flu should be 0.1% of people showing symptoms. Which with herd immunity built up would not be close to actual population numbers.
That would account for a factor of 10 or 20x
Meaning, if you can curb the curve - 100.000-240.000 deaths still sound like a possibility.
Maybe. (Exponential stuff = wrecks me brains in)edit:
What still gets me is a projected fatality rate of 100.000 - because still in the ballpark of a bad flu year for the US:
(Take this number and multiply by edit: 1.5 (because it projects only half a year))
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
Forbes to the rescue:
(read this)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshua...eaths-hinges-on-key-assumptions/#4fd291b8144e
There we go, this makes more sense:
So 1.1 million deaths then.
In an optimal scenario. There you have it - this is what the US is heading for.
Example calculations:
70% (where pandemic stops naturally) of entire US population is 228 mio
0.04% of that is 100.000
0.1% of that is 240.000
0.5% is 1.1 million
and
1% are 2.2 million
Also 100.000 dead is a (a bit higher than) normal flu years worth of deaths for the US, so make of that information what you will.
Last edited by notimp,
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