The benefits of Brexit - the future of the United Kingdom

JoeBloggs777 · Nov 20, 2018

smf said:
You understand that they are appointed by people that we have elected and so it's no different to the house of lords, prime minister & civil servants, where they aren't directly elected but are still democratically appointed?

Any time you make the point about EU being non democratic, you reveal your own prejudice and ignorance. The EU is a far better democracy than the UK banana republic.

EU leaders setting an example to us all, your right it's my prejudice and ignorance . I thought Merkel was the most powerful leader in Europe and what Merkel wants she gets.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/27/eu-democratic-bandwagon-juncker-president-wanted

kumikochan · Nov 20, 2018

FAST6191 said:
Of course not. I expect everybody to play to their strengths and try to use their particular leverages to get a deal that probably satisfies nobody's fantasy but works for everybody. This appears almost like capitulation from a bunch of incompetents.

Gibralta is a weird place so I will contemplate that one later but "give back" Northern Ireland? What is there to "give back"? If it was a recently acquired territory or something then possibly but this is a centuries settled bit of land, some seriously dubious stuff done to do it said centuries agao but I don't see a good reason to uproot things there. To forgo it without its own individual request and negotiations would be untenable from where I sit.

ECJ jurisdiction and free movement are indeed perks for the EU and if the UK is to forgo such things, or go for a lesser version, then I expect it to have a cost somewhere else in the negotiation. I am not seeing that kind of dealing though.

I don't know if I would amalgamate things that much and go a bit more specific where possible -- I am sure the Lithuanian banking industry is not going to feel the hurt as much as the German car one and thus straight talks of overall percentages is a bit weak.
Still if we take the numbers you have there then the UK is a bit of a do nothing/zero sum entity or even drag for the EU as far as what it adds to what it gets and is thus a net bonus in many respects for the EU for the UK to leave. In that case as it is the UK's own foot to shoot itself in ... and I quite agree that international shipping is not yet such that it is viable to blank or deal with the EU as an outside entity, and that banking/services is largely only done in the UK because English and easy access to the EU. That said it is probably not that clear cut and there are many industries that will face a fair few issues if the UK suddenly becomes far more expensive or non viable to deal with (probably up there in the margins they operate under and had calculated as a serious factor into their growth and income), said industries also have a fair bit of clout within their own countries.
To that end I would have to ask is the UK really screwing over the EU? Probably going to screw over itself, definitely if the quality of diplomats/negotiators on display thus far is anything to go by, and I fully expect the remaining EU parties to play hardball but to say screwing over is something I could see questioned.

Ofcourse it is going to screw itself over more then it is going to screw over the union but in a lot of ways it did also screw over the union. Maybe less then screwing itself over but one of the major things the UK screwed the union over is Self image and that is a mighty thing when it comes to business.

smf · Nov 21, 2018

JoeBloggs777 said:
EU leaders setting an example to us all, your right it's my prejudice and ignorance . I thought Merkel was the most powerful leader in Europe and what Merkel wants she gets.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/27/eu-democratic-bandwagon-juncker-president-wanted

If you think that about Merkel then I was right. I don't see any difference in the behaviour there between Cameron and Merkel. It's xenophobia to judge a foreigner bad for something but letting one of your own get away with it.

What they described sounded pretty democratic. Personally I think democracy is overrated, because stupid people get a chance to vote. But all people are stupid anyway as they are making decisions without enough information, it just means democracy gives really dumb results (like brexit and trump) & for democracy to work you have to have the option to reverse all your decisions.

I do think there should be a way of making people pay for the decisions they make & people who disagree shouldn't have to pay.

FAST6191 said:
Of course not. I expect everybody to play to their strengths and try to use their particular leverages to get a deal that probably satisfies nobody's fantasy but works for everybody. This appears almost like capitulation from a bunch of incompetents.

What do you expect when the leavers fantasy is so far removed from a reality that would work for anyone? If Rees Mog didn't have the backup of his inheritance, plus the parliamentary salary and pension, then he wouldn't be so cavalier with the fortunes of the country. He has nothing to lose, but all the people who listen to him have everything to lose.

Nigel Farage has already been covering his arse by saying that he never promised that the UK would be better off, so even if we end up having to burn poor people for fuel then he would say it was worth it.

JoeBloggs777 · Nov 21, 2018

smf said:
If you think that about Merkel then I was right. I don't see any difference in the behaviour there between Cameron and Merkel. It's xenophobia to judge a foreigner bad for something but letting one of your own get away with it.

What do you expect when the leavers fantasy is so far removed from a reality that would work for anyone? If Rees Mog didn't have the backup of his inheritance, plus the parliamentary salary and pension, then he wouldn't be so cavalier with the fortunes of the country. He has nothing to lose, but all the people who listen to him have everything to lose.

over half of the EU's GDP came from 3 states (germany, UK and France) you really think the 11 states that have less than a 1% share have any real power or say ?

Deleted User · Nov 21, 2018

I hear the current draft is to still have to follow EU rules but not be on the EU council because the PM has been sabotaging Brexit so that another referendum will be held and people will vote to stay like she wanted.

smf · Nov 21, 2018

JoeBloggs777 said:
over half of the EU's GDP came from 3 states (germany, UK and France) you really think the 11 states that have less than a 1% share have any real power or say ?

They get the same vote. You could argue that countries will do side deals to support something they normally wouldn't in return for something in return. Well that is politics & democracy is never black and white.

We struggled with support because we never contributed our fair share to the EU. We are number 8 with 110 euros. When you take into account the money we saved by sharing the cost of regulatory bodies, customs & border control, it didn't really cost us anything to be in the EU. The "£350 million a week" becoming available when we leave was a lie to con people to vote leave, the people saying it didn't believe it.

Snugglevixen said:
I hear the current draft is to still have to follow EU rules but not be on the EU council because the PM has been sabotaging Brexit so that another referendum will be held and people will vote to stay like she wanted.

I'm not convinced. She's a proper racist and is desperate to get rid of the ECJ because she has a grudge with them. Brexit is a clusterfuck, you don't need to sabotage it. There is no other way you can implement it in a way that would leave the conservatives electable & ultimately that is her top priority. The EU has given us more compromises than they should have, there aren't any more coming. So if you don't like what Theresa May is proposing, then you better start planning how you'll survive in a no deal scenario.

The only good deal on the table is to remain. It's a pity some people are so ideological about there hatred of foreigners that they can't accept it.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/jeremy-corbyn-is-as-deluded-about-brexit-as-jacob-rees-mogg/

JoeBloggs777 · Nov 21, 2018

well from the BBC news, France wants the right to fish in UK waters, Spain threatens to vote no and Merkel is angry at the nitpicking at this late stage. who's going to give in. My moneys on Merkel getting her way.

UltraDolphinRevolution · Nov 22, 2018

smf said:
The only good deal on the table is to remain. It's a pity some people are so ideological about there hatred of foreigners that they can't accept it.

To remain means giving up more and more sovereignty. It's the frog in hot water method. Long time ago people who warned there would be a debt union or a EU army were called conspiracy theorists etc. Well, look at the EU politicians now.

I don't get why low or no tariffs have to be linked to free movement of people. It had worked fine in the European Economic Union. Unless one sides wants to protect certain industries, both sides benefit from low or no tariffs.

The British don't have to buy German cars or French wine. After this attempted rape, the British should leave without a deal and remember the blackmailing.

Nightwish · Nov 22, 2018

smf said:
They hide it by suing multinationals. They are interested in business, because without it there is no money.

That is not how money works, at all. There's money as long as people need to use it to pay taxes.
But I know what you mean, without "job creators" there is no economy because they'll all stuff it in their mattress, but again, guess what, a sovereign state can do as Japan and create as much as it needs. Hell, that's what the ECB is doing, violating the treaties for the good of the capitalit, so the farce marches on.
As to lawsuits, yeah, poor banks, poor VW, poor cum-cum investors, poor companies that pay foreign wages to local workers, poor privatized monopolies, poor speculative property owners, they're bleeding so much, that's why the need the ISDS and the ECJ to protect them.

But not at the expense of the people, because that is a dumb move.

Not at the expense of the people, who can no longer afford homes, have left some counties en masse, have crumbling infrastructure, poor health services and higher priced necessities. If only they didn't live above their means, not that we're racist.
The European treaties mandate permanent austerity (if nothing else because no economy can grow as much as Germany's, who uses the Euro as an excuse to pay shit wages), the eurozone much more so. How anyone finds this progressive or sustainable is beyond me.

However it is what motivated the leave vote, the rich elite that fund your conspiracy theories so they can make even more money by subjugating you. You bought it hook line and sinker.

I don't live in the UK and little money to visit, but nice try. The only ones making money by subjugating me are banks, specifically German ones who, by the way, are still broke from their very responsible investments made possible by politicians who somehow end up working there - such coincidences in this world.
I'd love to hear your theories on the capitalists sponsoring MMT, because I'd like a laugh.

emigre · Dec 12, 2018

The vote's been delayed and now there's a vote of confidence in May by her own party. The situation is finding new and amazing ways to make this more a shitshow than previously thought.

Edit: she won it 200 to 117. At least we won't have another leadership contest.

FAST6191 · Dec 12, 2018

Being a party whip these days must be a horrible job.

KingVamp · Dec 13, 2018

Sorry for not following closely, but is there still an option to not brexit?

FAST6191 · Dec 13, 2018

I don't think anybody knows. If you were thinking more like a convention on something where people could just refuse to sign and come back in a few years. No.

Officially the negotiation period was entered into some time back (note that this is not the same as the referendum -- https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39143978 ), the end of which the member state exits regardless. This is what the looming deadline thing is all about as that is rapidly approaching (March next year*), and what this talk about the backstop agreement (the agreement that would go into place if the deadline passes and no final deal is agreed upon) concerns -- https://www.express.co.uk/news/poli...an-Brexit-backstop-meaning-backstop-explained .

*of course we also have Christmas and February break before then, and Easter right after, which means about a month less than that as far as time goes. https://www.parliament.uk/about/faqs/house-of-commons-faqs/business-faq-page/recess-dates/
Christmas 20 December 2018 7 January 2019
February 14 February 2019 25 February 2019

I don't know offhand what it would take as far as member state votes to prolong talks if that would be the will of the other EU states. While there is talk of a bit of leeway I am not seeing much of anything as far as prolonging talks.

I believe the final deal also has to be voted on by parliament as well (there was a court decision on what needs to go there some years ago, as well as one to even trigger article 50). https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-may-postpones-brexit-deal-meaningful-vote-eu

Said article 50 also saw some challenges a little while back https://www.shropshirestar.com/news...enge-to-brexit-and-what-is-westminsters-view/

There are no elections likely to happen before the upcoming deadline, and the thing emigre mentioned about the leadership contest (the negotiations, for something generally considered to one of the defining events of probably this and several decades to come, are going poorly to say the least and is pleasing basically nobody at this point**, which meant the prime minister risked being ousted by her own party) means we are not likely to see anything happen on that front. https://www.ft.com/content/eaeac920-feb1-11e8-aebf-99e208d3e521
I don't know what would happen if somehow there was an election (one that happened before the deadline) with a party elected that would want to stop it and what they could do. Such a thing would be purely hypothetical though and is not really worth considering.

**there was no official plan at the time of the vote, none by the time article 50 was triggered, and we have still not seen one that everybody agrees on (the first thing to come close to anything was the widely maligned Chequers deal, one that any fool could have seen would have been, in July 2018). Generally speaking there are three camps, though obviously there are people within any one of them that have things they will and will not live with as far as laws, N. Ireland-ROI border, finance....
Said camps are hard, soft and remain. Hard essentially wants to be another country in the world (some like the phrase clean break), soft would probably see the UK remain with one foot in the EU (similar to how Switzerland, Norway and such by virtue of being able to be driven to from everywhere else in Europe reckon it is worth being able to trade easily with them and no have to worry about competing standards, tariffs and such) and remain would likely seek to cancel the lot and go from there. Generally the European negotiators favour the latter two options, UK members of parliament and other figures don't have enough of a majority to do anything outright (for a leadership confidence contest to be called, and for that many votes against them, is not a trivial thing). In case you were curious the US, or at least Trump ( https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46352463 ), would appear to be more in the hard camp (talks of trade deals say they want the UK out of the EU single market, something only likely to happen with the hard scenario) and that is no small thing -- https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindu...ade/articles/whodoestheuktradewith/2017-02-21 .

So I would go with it would take something quite special for it to be outright stopped (and at this point it would likely have to come from the EU side of things). Anybody's guess as to what goes as far as a backstop deal and whether there will be one in place, much less a final deal. If nothing is agreed upon and there is no backstop it becomes a situation known as no-deal. https://www.itv.com/news/2018-12-13/how-will-no-deal-brexit-affect-me/

Nightwish · Dec 13, 2018

KingVamp said:
Sorry for not following closely, but is there still an option to not brexit?

The ECJ thinks so, all that's needed is UK's request. This opinion is not legally binding, however, since it's possible some argument could turn the court's decision around in an actual trial, and, in that potential trial, the UK would have to show some actual competence on the matter, for once.

Meanwhile, surprising every neo-liberal parrot, the economy keeps doing fine.

Saiyan Lusitano · Dec 22, 2018

Looks as though Brexit won't succeed but doesn't mean that'll be the end of it. Far from it.

mattytrog · Dec 22, 2018

We need to Brexit. Too much bad blood. British people will never accept a German-dominated United States Of Europe. Thats what Druncker and Verhofstainedteeth wants. The common market... Brilliant idea. This, to throw our sovereignity away is too much. Too many people have died. Too many memories.

Xzi · Dec 22, 2018

Saiyan Lusitano said:
Looks as though Brexit won't succeed but doesn't mean that'll be the end of it. Far from it.

That really should be the end of it until someone actually creates a thorough and detailed proposal on how to exit the EU without massive disruption in every facet of the country. Brexit was poorly-conceived from the start and I'm amazed that any majority voted in favor of it to begin with. Any issues the UK has with the EU can be solved within the EU, the only person in the world that is guaranteed to benefit from a sloppy transistion away from it and a weakened EU/UK as a result is named Vladimir.

Not that I'm taking the moral high ground here, the US voted in Trump around the same time, but the point is that both countries need to fight against their isolationist tendencies. That type of mentality isn't going to fix anything in 2018, only cause more problems by allowing Russia/China/Saudi Arabia take more power and prestige on the world stage.

mattytrog · Dec 22, 2018

Xzi said:
That really should be the end of it until someone actually creates a thorough and detailed proposal on how to exit the EU without massive disruption in every facet of the country. Brexit was poorly-conceived from the start and I'm amazed that any majority voted in favor of it to begin with. Any issues the UK has with the EU can be solved within the EU, the only person in the world that is guaranteed to benefit from a sloppy transistion away from it and a weakened EU/UK as a result is named Vladimir.

Wrong. The EU was weakening us. Look at how manufacturing has been decimated in the UK. Firms moving abroad to other EU countries.

A combination of socialist governents led to this.

Issues CANNOT be solved within the EU. Look at what happens when a member state tries to leave! I rest my case.

The whole EU stinks to high heaven. Rotten to the core, however noble it`s original aims were.

We have the last socialist Labour government to thank for this. Signing the Lisbon treaty. Letting far more benefactors in rather than contributors.

Xzi · Dec 22, 2018

mattytrog said:
Wrong. The EU was weakening us. Look at how manufacturing has been decimated in the UK. Firms moving abroad to other EU countries.

Manufacturing moves wherever labor is cheapest, that has nothing to do with the EU in particular. I'm sure the UK relies on a lot of foreign manufacturing to fill all their needs with or without the EU.

mattytrog said:
A combination of socialist governents led to this.

Well if you have a socialist government then you should have plenty of worker's rights, or at least have the power to negotiate them. Which means you should be guaranteed a job/healthcare either way.

mattytrog said:
Issues CANNOT be solved within the EU. Look at what happens when a member state tries to leave! I rest my case.

Like I said, Brexit was ill-conceived. All the people who led the campaign quit in shame after it passed. The failure in planning and forethought on their part is what led to Brexit's ultimate failure, not anything the EU did.

mattytrog said:
The whole EU stinks to high heaven. Rotten to the core, however noble it`s original aims were.

We have the last socialist Labour government to thank for this. Signing the Lisbon treaty. Letting far more benefactors in rather than contributors.

Well I'm not going to say your opinions are invalid or anything, you surely know more in-depth about this than I. Like I said, if someone releases a more thought-out proposal or study, then perhaps Brexit can be a reality in the future. All they had this go around was the idea, no plan to back it.

pustal · Dec 22, 2018

mattytrog said:
Wrong. The EU was weakening us. Look at how manufacturing has been decimated in the UK. Firms moving abroad to other EU countries.

A combination of socialist governents led to this.

Issues CANNOT be solved within the EU. Look at what happens when a member state tries to leave! I rest my case.

The whole EU stinks to high heaven. Rotten to the core, however noble it`s original aims were.

We have the last socialist Labour government to thank for this. Signing the Lisbon treaty. Letting far more benefactors in rather than contributors.

Manufacturing is being decimated everywhere and replace by automated processes in China. That is the same stuff that the Trump campain scream to all corners. Manufacturing jobs will not be coming back and even if you plan is to have smart factories, nothing beats the proximity economy already set on China, let alone if you cut trade agreements with your neighbors.

The benefits of Brexit - the future of the United Kingdom

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You don`t want to listen to anything I say.

Time to fly, 621

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Yeah! This is happenin'!

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