The benefits of Brexit - the future of the United Kingdom

[FAST6191]

The lockdown will end because of the vaccine, not because some self important people want it to end. The early may bank holiday is the current prediction, but obviously they could miss that if people keep being idiots.

Categorically if there is some kind of civil unrest because they can't go to the pub in the meantime, then measures will be taken.



Your arguments are trite and disingenuous, so who wins?



What?

How am I being disingenuous? There are perks, there are drawbacks. I want to be sold on the measures taken as they are going to impact me. Not just "oh it might help someone somewhere, shut up and get it done, your concerns are trifling vs a few old people kicking the bucket". Tell me numbers that make sense and I will ponder them and see where there might be shortcomings, where too much risk is taken or too much caution is used. That is usually how this sort of thing works.

The other part. You said it is needed so vaccines can happen (shifting goalposts from the initial, and generally accepted reason, "flatten the curve" but a reasonable thing -- if you can kick it in the head in short order and it sitting in the house vs going out into the world will have some notable effect on the matter. I went and looked up the numbers achieved thus far and multiplied to get to population (which medics reckon wants to be high percentage, and efficacy would back that up), and even went crazy optimistic scenario as well (that being unlimited doses, easy to administer).
That is not a couple of weeks or anything as much as basically the rest of this year if that rate (which had plenty of prep for the rollout, had everybody sitting around with nothing better to do, and is not so very likely to end up several times higher as I sit here, even before we get to the stragglers and "can't be arsed" types). Even without that I still am looking for numbers to make a calculated risk decision.

 

[smf]

That is usually how this sort of thing works.

Not during a pandemic, when by the time we've sat around for years arguing about it then everyone is dead. That is what I mean by disingeneous.

That is not a couple of weeks or anything as much as basically the rest of this year if that rate

Yes, I made that point earlier. They are planning to end lockdown when the most at risk have been vaccinated, but the rest of us will be thrown to the wolves as they reckon they'll only have offered every adult a vaccine by the autumn. We won't know whether if that was a bad idea or not, until it's too late.

It is impossible to give you the numbers you want in a time frame that will make them useful. You'd need some kind of referendum, but people are dumb and easily swayed which is why we aren't in the EU anymore. The Boaty McBoatface effect has put an end to destroying trust in british people.

 

[FGFlann]

The question was asked if there was an alternative and I gave the reasons for why there wasn't.

You did not do that. You said lockdown violators need to be trained like puppies. Looking back now I see you've made a ton of edits to your posts which is really unhelpful when having a real time discussion, but whatever. People having agency also does not relate to the concept of "free society" it is the ability of people to decide on their own course of action. There is nothing you can do to take this ability away from a person, short of killing them. You can't ignore this factor when you are taking a course of action that involves an entire nation, it has to be allowed for because people will respond in unexpected ways, especially if the course of action you take does not make sense to the people you are imposing it upon. (Much like Brexit itself.) Like it or not, not everyone views the virus in the same way, many look at the evidence provided and they do not see sufficient risk that justifies these lockdowns. Now why they believe this is neither here nor there, but it is a thing that happens and if you continue imposing upon them they *will* eventually rebel.

 

[FAST6191]

Not during a pandemic, when by the time we've sat around for years arguing about it then everyone is dead. That is what I mean by disingeneous.



Yes, I made that point earlier. They are planning to end lockdown when the most at risk have been vaccinated, but the rest of us will be thrown to the wolves as they reckon they'll only have offered every adult a vaccine by the autumn. We won't know whether if that was a bad idea or not, until it's too late.

It is impossible to give you the numbers you want in a time frame that will make them useful. You'd need some kind of referendum, but people are dumb and easily swayed which is why we aren't in the EU anymore. The Boaty McBoatface effect has put an end to destroying trust in british people.

But not everybody is dead. Infection rates high in terms of likely cases having been had (test numbers vs practical reality where only way to get a test was to be rich/connected or lie and said you know someone that had it means underdiagnosis was likely the order of the day), outcomes usually pretty reasonable for most.

The numbers and efficacy are fairly easily judged and easy to know anyway -- the science types can have fun figuring out specifics and categorising things (quite content to unarse a bunch of money to speed that along as well) but persons infected, deaths/serious outcomes happened, change over year on year. All fairly basic maths well documented and understood for decades (possibly centuries in some cases).
Other countries, different measures taken and general scenarios will give some numbers on what effects things might have.

This level will likely cost this much (work slowdowns, economic turmoil and stoppages are an insurance and national financial planning staple, bad winters another known factor for sitting on your arse/cooped up indoors) and likely stop this many cases, or ensure capacities at hospitals remain under this percent.
This level will cost this much more and likely stop this many cases.
Maybe make a nice slider type setup.
Can help make a nice informed decision that one. I don't need a referendum, just don't like to be told to listen to my betters (especially not by politicians that the vast majority of which would not be able to tell me the scientific method, never mind how to actually read a study, if their life depended upon it -- it is the true believer/salesman problem all over again) and not have them explain things to me.

This level of measure would not be put in place to save one person, thus we have some limit at some level and some tolerated level of death/serious outcomes. At the same time there was scope to leave the house and not have two in the body and one in the head (if nobody is seeing anybody then rates drop through the floor and would be done in [insert infectious period]) so surely that counts as blood on hands -- they made a call that some would die lest everything go with it to do that one. As it stands the efficacy is rather less than some other vaccinations, never mind some kind of realistic ideal, so yet another risk - reward was taken.
Not to mention throughout it all there have been fags and booze sold (in addition to the fat bastard ratio being pumped) which in the long term... is it worth saving a few old people today for a cost of the productive population later? Do I trust politicos to make long term decisions as well? They have been fairly "what will win me the next election" for quite some time now, and basic game theory says they kind of have to be.

Given they can't decide what most at risk means going by that free meals stuff last year and ummed and arred there I don't hold out much hope of a sensible answer from that one. Also want to know what that number is to factor into whether I should support the decision, call them risk happy fools or call them cowards.

I am certainly looking forward to playing coulda, woulda, shoulda, "if I was omniscient and knew what I know now", who did it better, who did it worse, what were the surprising factors, what were the big and small comorbidities in the years to come when we get some nice data to look at and compare to similar countries/regions/demographics. Does not however mean I can't have things explained to me in real time, even if premade paths are taken, never mind less time than it would have taken to do a masters in something. Only reason not to really is for the panicky fools approach if you need to lie to people to somehow make outcomes better and that is a dangerous path to walk, especially if I am supposed to make predictions for myself based upon that (in my case my business is what it is, 5 months- 15 not going to make an awful lot of odds but others have a serious decision for 3 vs 5 and lies to say 3 and will be over just to sound positive is unpleasant).

 

[smf]

But not everybody is dead.

For obvious reasons I never claimed they were. The problem is the NHS, as soon as anyone mentions it then peoples brains turn into mush and forget all reason. It's why we left the EU, even though what was said was a lie. It just had to mention NHS.

The strain that covid19 has put on the NHS is why we'll continue lockdown. Nobody wants to go back to the way we handled the plague, where people are left to die behind front doors with crosses to warn people of what is inside.

I am certainly looking forward to playing coulda, woulda, shoulda,

It's like talking about all the stocks you'd have bought ten years ago if you knew their price today, it's pointless. We know that Boris sat on his hands back in January 2020, it seems the Tories were still sick of experts & that you could beat anything with bravdo. And paying people to visit restaurants during eat out to help out was an obvious disaster (which I refused to partake in), they'd have been better off just giving the restaurants money.

But the medical stuff is going to take forever to figure out and saying I told you so because you made a random prediction based on no evidence, you might as well roll a dice.

 

[FAST6191]

For obvious reasons I never claimed they were. The problem is the NHS, as soon as anyone mentions it then peoples brains turn into mush and forget all reason. It's why we left the EU, even though what was said was a lie. It just had to mention NHS.

The strain that covid19 has put on the NHS is why we'll continue lockdown. Nobody wants to go back to the way we handled the plague, where people are left to die behind front doors with crosses to warn people of what is inside.

Doesn't have to be that far, such things might not even come to pass. Could be less harsh than what is happening now though. Or might need to be more. Is the strain too much that outcomes change enough or is it just strained (one might say something being strained is closer to optimal usage).

That I have not been given models being used, maybe some nice alternative models, thresholds sought or thought justifiable, and data to play with, and sometimes even seem actively discouraged from playing means I struggle to make an informed decision about things.
That is my main misgiving. They work for me, they need to justify their decisions (especially when they affect me), else I am going to have to continue with heavy scepticism and questioning as the default approach (I probably would anyway -- very little I have seen in some time now, as in decades, has given me any sense of competence, compassion or ability but there is a difference between baseline cynicism and active distrust).

 

[Iamapirate]

I said it long before Brexit and I'll say it again now: ultimately all that changes is the price of things went up a bit in the UK, and they get to keep more immigrants out of the country. Returning to isolationism in the 21st century is not really an option; everything, including much of the world's economy, is online.

What's wrong with keeping immigrants out of your country? You aren't obligated to bring people in. Any immigration should be on your terms and people who'd be of benefit to the country (not just economic, but people who will culturally assimilate)

 

[Xzi]

What's wrong with keeping immigrants out of your country?

Assuming your country isn't so ultra-imperialist that it once invaded and occupied at least half of the world, nothing. Otherwise, it's more than a bit hypocritical, what with that imperialism being the cause of so much immigration to begin with.

 

[Deleted User]

Got a question: What does the new U.K. Driver's License Card look like?

Don't suppose they just replaced the EU flag with the Union Jack flag, eh?

 

[FAST6191]

Assuming your country isn't so ultra-imperialist that it once invaded and occupied at least half of the world, nothing. Otherwise, it's more than a bit hypocritical, what with that imperialism being the cause of so much immigration to begin with.

Because history that the end of which is barely in living memory (the decline and end of the empire varies on dates but at the very latest of any real power was 1956 (the Suez crisis, so if you were 15 at the time you would be statistically brushing up against life expectancy) and more likely was done after world war 2 (so 1945) with it being in something of a serious decline for a lot longer, indeed the move to post industrial, computer age and radically different setup then something must happen today even if the would be populace does not care for it (arguably the more important metric)?
Hard sell that one, even more so trying to bill it as hypocritical.

There are plenty of reasons to want and encourage people to wander over but some non existent guilt for historical actions... not going to get far with that one.

 

[Iamapirate]

Assuming your country isn't so ultra-imperialist that it once invaded and occupied at least half of the world, nothing. Otherwise, it's more than a bit hypocritical, what with that imperialism being the cause of so much immigration to begin with.

I fail to see how that's relevant to the present day. The UK should care for the citizens of the UK, and worry about foreigners second.

 

[Slim45]

I guess it's safe


It was 52 to 48. Currently, the biggest benefit is taking back control but based on how the negotiations are going, I'm not sure I want the GOvernment to be taking control of anything.

the uk already had control on a lot of issues and the best deal out of any member country right down to its own currency and being the financial center for the eu.

 

[Xzi]

I fail to see how that's relevant to the present day. The UK should care for the citizens of the UK, and worry about foreigners second.

Yeah, given their poor handling of the coronavirus, I suppose there aren't exactly hoards of people banging at the gates to get in right now anyway. Only time will tell how much of a negative impact Brexit has on tourism and workers relocating for their careers. The rest of us can only laugh at the UK for having cut off their nose to spite the face, though I do feel slightly bad for the role that Trumpism might've played in influencing their decision.

 

[Doran754]

There are 1.2 million illegal immigrants in the UK - a quarter of the entire total in Europe. Lets hope they leave the doors alone so this tiny island can cope with it's massive overpopulation problem.

 

[Xzi]

There are 1.2 million illegal immigrants in the UK - a quarter of the entire total in Europe. Lets hope they leave the doors alone so this tiny island can cope with it's massive overpopulation problem.

Sounds like corporate over-reliance on cheap/free labor, the exact same problem the US has. Stricter immigration policy won't fix the problem, only implementing a path to citizenship and cracking down hard on businesses/corporations for hiring illegals will.

 

[AmandaRose]

There are 1.2 million illegal immigrants in the UK - a quarter of the entire total in Europe. Lets hope they leave the doors alone so this tiny island can cope with it's massive overpopulation problem.

That figure is an estimate by the Pew Research Centre, which estimated that there were between 800,000 and 1.2 million “unauthorised immigrants” in the UK in 2017. This research came out in 2019.


This figure included people living without a “residency permit in their country of residence who are not citizens of any European Union or European Free Trade Association (EFTA) country”, as well as children born to those people. (The research looked at the unauthorised immigrant numbers in countries across Europe.)


Broadly, Pew calculated this by comparing the number of non-EU citizens in the UK with the number who had valid visas. However, there isn’t currently an accurate figure for how many non-EU residents have permanent residence, rather than those on temporary visas that are still valid. The Migration Observatory at Oxford University says that this is one of several factors which “raises significant questions about the accuracy of the estimates”.


Pew also included asylum seekers who were waiting for a decision from the government on whether they could be recognised as refugees.


The Migration Observatory have also looked at a number of different estimates done of the illegal migrant population since 2001. These put the current figure at 120,000 illegal immigrants currently in the UK.

Quite a big difference from the estimated 1.2 million by Pew Research to the figures by The Mitigation Observatory.

We have no real way of knowing what the official figure is.

 

[Doran754]

Sounds like corporate over-reliance on cheap/free labor, the exact same problem the US has. Stricter immigration policy won't fix the problem, only implementing a path to citizenship and cracking down hard on businesses/corporations for hiring illegals will.

You may well be right, I'm not an expert. Id tend to agree cheap labour was a huge problem, especially when we were in the EU because you'd get a lot of poles/romanians coming over for work. Cheap labour in the uk was still 10x what they'd earn back home, hopefully that will end now.

That figure is an estimate by the Pew Research Centre, which estimated that there were between 800,000 and 1.2 million “unauthorised immigrants” in the UK in 2017. This research came out in 2019.


This figure included people living without a “residency permit in their country of residence who are not citizens of any European Union or European Free Trade Association (EFTA) country”, as well as children born to those people. (The research looked at the unauthorised immigrant numbers in countries across Europe.)


Broadly, Pew calculated this by comparing the number of non-EU citizens in the UK with the number who had valid visas. However, there isn’t currently an accurate figure for how many non-EU residents have permanent residence, rather than those on temporary visas that are still valid. The Migration Observatory at Oxford University says that this is one of several factors which “raises significant questions about the accuracy of the estimates”.


Pew also included asylum seekers who were waiting for a decision from the government on whether they could be recognised as refugees.


The Migration Observatory have also looked at a number of different estimates done of the illegal migrant population since 2001. These put the current figure at 120,000 illegal immigrants currently in the UK.

Quite a big difference from the estimated 1.2 million by Pew Research to the figures by The Mitigation Observatory.

We have no real way of knowing what the official figure is.

1.2million or 1, It's too many, they're illegal and they make a mockery of genuine asylum seekers who go through the proper channels.

 

[Xzi]

You may well be right, I'm not an expert. Id tend to agree cheap labour was a huge problem, especially when we were in the EU because you'd get a lot of poles/romanians coming over for work. Cheap labour in the uk was still 10x what they'd earn back home, hopefully that will end now.

Corporations will only do the right thing when they have no other option, when they've been boxed into a corner by regulations. Short of that, they'll just keep moving from one source of cheap labor to the next, and eventually decide that outsourcing is the best way to maximize profits.

 

[notimp]

You may well be right, I'm not an expert. Id tend to agree cheap labour was a huge problem, especially when we were in the EU because you'd get a lot of poles/romanians coming over for work. Cheap labour in the uk was still 10x what they'd earn back home, hopefully that will end now.


1.2million or 1, It's too many, they're illegal and they make a mockery of genuine asylum seekers who go through the proper channels.

By existing?

 

[Deleted User]

I fail to see how that's relevant to the present day. The UK should care for the citizens of the UK, and worry about foreigners second.

Care? They've decided to put everyone in lockdown again (not that it ever ended, just postponed).

Lockdowns can and will affect people mentally and physically, and not leaving their houses (or apartments) makes them not be able to breathe fresh air (capital cities tend to be polluted but still), see the wonderful blue sky and its sun and just enjoy life in itself.

Moreover, I have seen so many "What should I ____ during the lockdown?" on the web that it shows what's doing to them. They're making people anti-social and afraid of everything and everyone.

Finally, this will be hard for them to go back to normal (if there ever is again) due to what they've been put through. Basically, it's psychological warfare.

There are 1.2 million illegal immigrants in the UK - a quarter of the entire total in Europe. Lets hope they leave the doors alone so this tiny island can cope with it's massive overpopulation problem.

The illegal immigrants are usually from Europe, Africa and Asia, although those who were in U.K. for five or more years could have applied for the permanent resident application (if eligible). My dysfunctional cousin is somewhere in U.K. and God knows what he's doing. Last time he was with us he nearly commenced a fight by pretending he was the victim and not paying what he owes.

Family can be a real pain sometimes.

Anyway, Sham, Brexit is good, but too little too late. At best, it'll take decades to fix the mess they created by joining the EU (luckily they didn't change to that shit currency of the Euro). Now with COVID and its lockdowns? Don't expect things to go back to normal any time soon.