Maybe, but list is growing, there already 14 exclusive to New3DS games, and more 'enchanced only' games, I see Nintendo doing the same with 'mariko' revision, since it can A) support more RAM, B) is smaller chip, so room to increasee gpu/cpu clock speeds (no more underclocking, full Tegra X1 speeds, C) contains a bit better CPU/GPU, so there is clear possibly some stuff might only work on next Switch, as Nintendo does not care that much about existing customers, when New3DS was released, there was alot more than 19 million existing 3DS owners.

 

I'd say probably not too badly, unless piracy manages to get quite popular.

 

they do not want to split their 18mio userbase so soon. the n3ds did barely get any exclusives. same here.

 

Its would probably be cheaper to give the 18mil a free swap to mariko, then to exile 18mil from playing new games and making their switches useless.

 

DS hack was much noob friendly, yet it was most successful hardware Nintendo ever made including most selling softwares that’s also goes to Wii

 

Blatantly not!

How many Switches in the wild, around 20 million. Now, how many of those do you think will actually end up with CFW on them, couple of thousand..maybe. Work that out as a percentage.

Let's not forget that this is no simple software hack as yet. How many people do you think are willing to open up or start shoving wires into their £300 hardware.

It's easy when you are immersed in the scene to think the community is representative of the general user base, it certainly is not by any stretch. If you could get numbers of users on say the discords or even those who visit the gbatemp Switch subgroups it would be a fraction of a percentage of the Switch user-base.

If I were to put forth any concrete evidence of the impact of a hacked system on game sales it would be Pokemon Sun and Moon on 3DS.
These games came at a time of full A9lH+Luma access to the system.
These games were leaked prior to release, piracy was the first place to get them.
These games sold nearly 15 million copies within a 6 weeks.

This hack will have zero impact on a publishers decision to release games on the system.

 

*bootrom exploit gets leaked*
Nintendo: Dammit, they have the highest access to our console via a tethered hardware exploit! They may develop a backup launcher soon so lets stop development of Pokémon, Metroid Prime 4, Smash Bros, Fire Emblem, Yoshi, etc.

Am I doing it right?

 

I would highly doubt it. The PSP had a number of other issues with it that were probably putting off a lot of developers, the UMD format likely being chief among them, and the efforts of people like Dark_Alex just tipped them over the edge.

When you start breaking this down, the claims just don't add up. There are approximately 18 million Switch users worldwide. We don't have exact figures, but let's just assume 1% of that 18 million will hack their Switch and install a CFW to pirate games; that's 180,000 people worldwide. So for every game released for the Switch, the question becomes how many of those 180,000 people are even interested enough in your game to even bother pirating it? Most AAA games probably sell 2-5 million copies worldwide, which is like 10-30% (rounding up) of all Switch users if my math is correct. So what is the overlap between the total number of people who COULD pirate your game, and those who actually DO pirate your game? Just because someone CAN pirate your game doesn't mean they will. I don't give two craps about Pokemon games for example, so even if I had a Switch that could pirate Pokemon games, I wouldn't.

Developers know all this, it's the publishers who are the ones who get their panties all in a wad over it.

 

Did the PSP fail? It has a huge library of games. I thought it was pretty succesful and it's an awesome console imo. Forgive me if I'm mistaken then.