Can Donald Trump become President Again?

FAST6191

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There is the proven track record/incumbent bonus/name recognition thing, though we have less data on people coming back after a loss/being out of the game for a moment.

So there are three major forces in US politics.
The democrats (though they have their own internal factions that don't get along). The nominally left leaning party (high taxes, will take freedoms to gain safety, social programs, comparatively anti business).
The republicans (again not without their factions). The nominally right leaning party (higher but not necessarily high taxes, generally go for freedoms over safety, more of a religious bent, less concerned with social programs, comparatively pro business)
The libertarians. Very small by comparison but potentially a thing for the spoiler effect (voting is winner take all. 30 D 25R 10L would mean D takes it even if 35 for the combined R and L factions that don't like D would beat it) and has been on a few occasions. Rather weak at present compared to past times and having their own internal civil war. Would probably be more right leaning than pure centrist but have some ideas on big government vs small government that makes them different enough to note than simple left-right dichotomy of the other two.

In pondering elections you have two major forces.

1) Voter apathy. Aka how many would be supporters actually bother to turn up (turnout being the usual phrase of choice). Can be skewed by state and rules within the electoral college.

2) Independents. Those that have no particular political alignment and will vote for them because they like their policies more than the other guy, like their haircut, thought he had more energy, is good at smack talk, they want to fuck them or whatever.

Would Mr Trump then have those that like him turn up and vote or conversely those that dislike him enough that while they would normally have stayed home actually turn up and vote for someone else that goes against him.

Would those in the independent camp either i) dislike the other guy so as to vote tactically as it were, or ii) approve of him (and among republicans he has several different ideas on how things work/should work) enough to go for that instead.

Statistically speaking, be it with the electoral college or popular vote, then things are a pretty even split these days and likely are going forward.

We don't know who the democrats or libertarians are likely to field -- age is a concern all around actually but especially with the deteriorating mental state of the current el presidente (it was almost suicide to field him last time, can't imagine this time being a positive), as well as the general ineffectiveness of the regime at present. You may have also had some new generations come online and some old ones die off (if generally nobody under the age of 35 votes, and tend to vote for those 20 years older than them) then those 90s democrats and last of the religious right are due to be dead and buried if standard human lifespans and distributions thereof are a thing.
Timeline wise we also have several more years, most of which are likely to be quite interesting with wars, economic collapse (and things are looking very bad out there on the financial front), social upheaval (stoking some, pointlessly, tactically or ahead of schedule*, seems to be a default play. It is also one that burns the hand that deals it as often as it benefits it) and more. Depending upon what goes also changes stats -- mid war boost is a thing. At the same time matters have been forced that people are paying attention to local politics despite that normally being a snooze fest which could get interesting. Mid terms (which are reasonably soon) might be an indicator, and if power shifts there (a reasonably solid bet) then playing politics to hamstring the presidency and boost your is... pretty much how the game is played.

*there are plenty of things that might take some time to warm to, might want some people to die off or need to be done by thousand cuts as it were but some seem to be going whole hog into and getting what has to be expected pushback. Tactically this could be poisoning the land or it could be short term pain for long term gain.

To answer the question of the thread. I could see it happen in as much as he has some recognition and is not complete poison. Whether it would be tactically a wise play (something most political parties seem almost alien to these days) is a different matter entirely, though I am not sure who they would pick as an alternative (granted neither party has a problem with grabbing unknowns and pretending they were movers and shakers all along). Even ignoring the likely fun of the next few years I don't have a particularly good read on what kind of apathy among the right, libertarian protest vote, independent sway (or indeed a particularly good breakdown of independent concerns, independent concerns by regions where it matters and weightings there, and also would need to evaluate the impact of social democrats among said same as they have some strange ideas that might similarly push independents and even a few generally democrat voters out of their camp) or left turnout boost (or indeed turnout boost where it matters -- few 18 year olds in California that would have otherwise stayed home matters basically not at all).
 
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Norris

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If he manages to stay out of jail, and it looks as though he might, he has a good chance of getting elected again.
the thing is he was never even actully fully voted for hillary got more votes trump only won cause of rep system and joe biden won over him i hope he stays out for a long long time
 

appleburger

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Nah, I don't see it happening after the Capital situation and social media tomfoolery. Even if the country shocked us with giving him the popular vote this go around, I can't imagine the Electoral College voting him back in.

Too much damage control - regardless of policy anyone is trying to push. I felt like policy-wise Trump was less dramatic than most republican presidents, but his mouth just got him in way more trouble than it needed to.

I understand why Americans liked the idea of a non-politician being president, but you have to hand it to the politicians - they have a way of dealing with Media (and the public in general), and Trump trying to combat it only hurt himself in the long run.
 
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FAST6191

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Nah, I don't see it happening after the Capital situation and social media tomfoolery. Even if the country shocked us with giving him the popular vote this go around, I can't imagine the Electoral College voting him back in.

Too much damage control - regardless of policy anyone is trying to push. I felt like policy-wise Trump was less dramatic than most republican presidents, but his mouth just got him in way more trouble than it needed to.

I understand why Americans liked the idea of a non-politician being president, but you have to hand it to the politicians - they have a way of dealing with Media (and the public in general), and Trump trying to combat it only hurt himself in the long run.
He was a bellend on social media before/during the runup to presidency and throughout it. Did not particularly seem to bother much there, some even enjoyed it. Whether what happened since then or those growing up with it (if you are 18 in 2024 then you were probably born after myspace died -- 2006 timeframe facebook was mostly still for US college students, and depending upon the timelines might statistically speaking be part of those that never have had a facebook account either) coming online for voting somehow bothering to vote in a place where it matters. Plus those that probably want their politicians to be austere and dignified gentlemen dying off as well, though what that counts for I don't know.
As far as the whole 6th of January thing. So a bunch of people that nominally supported him (as opposed to being authorised/sent/condoned by him) ran around the capital and got a bit rowdy to a far lesser extent than various other protests -- it was being cleaned up and everybody knocked off for happy hour. Even if it somehow mattered I would also wonder at the filter of time in memory for that one or whether some for want of a better term comparatively minor scandal a month before (and I am sure they will be saving them up to launch at the appropriate time) takes the spotlight.

As far as dealing with the media. He could have done a better job of killing it but it was left kneecapped and bleeding by the end.

On less dramatic policies then I will note that historically republicans at lower levels have suffered with that -- the main threat to right leaning politicos being further right politicos if not outright replacing them then spoiler effect (some d gets 30%, some R that would normally have got 45% then gets a 20% drop to someone further right R and oh wow). Where that balance lies for independents, turnout of various parties and libertarian protest or whatever vote I am still unsure.
 
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appleburger

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He was a bellend on social media before/during the runup to presidency and throughout it. Did not particularly seem to bother much there, some even enjoyed it.
This is true, although I feel he tipped those scales throughout the presidency. This is anecdotal, but I'm in a particularly red area, and the view on his brashness from my peers went from "Haha, go get 'em and screw the establishment, Trump!" to "Okay, this is a bit too much" once we got to the capital situation. Even online, while obviously I can't know what everybody thought about it, I saw a trend of people agreeing it was an extremely bad call compared to his behavior leading up to being elected. His ratings reflected it, as well, for what those are worth.

As far as the whole 6th of January thing. So a bunch of people that nominally supported him (as opposed to being authorised/sent/condoned by him) ran around the capital and got a bit rowdy to a far lesser extent than various other protests
Yes, there have existed protests where more bodily harm and property damage occurred - that's a fact.

However, the people that sparked these generally aren't trying to be elected as president. As a president, speaking to the public and being the voice of government is one of the most powerful tools at your disposal. Trump seemed to be weaponizing this to fight against not being re-elected, and I think a lot of Americans agree that we'd rather have a President who wields that power more carefully.

While he did tell the crowd to please be peaceful, he certainly should have been aware of the consequences of using ignorant assumptions (or lies, honestly we have no way of knowing, but that's moot) to tell his country their democracy was being compromised, when all the evidence said otherwise. His choice of words leading up to that were incredibly poor, imo.

I generally vote based on policy and not public opinion on what politicians say, but I have to concede that I'm in the minority on that, and so I'd be very surprised if he was re-elected at this point. I also don't want to have somebody in office that lacks damage control with the public, regardless of policy, so he certainly wouldn't get my vote. He's just too reckless for me to feel confident putting him back in office.

As far as dealing with the media. He could have done a better job of killing it but it was left kneecapped and bleeding by the end.
I sympathize with a president getting irritated by the Media, but as far as Presidents being treated unfairly by Media go, Trump had small potatoes compared to, say, Kennedy's Catholicism being a big problem. Past presidents have addressed common Media clickbait info far more elegantly than Trump was able to. Again, gotta hand it to the politicians.

On less dramatic policies then I will note that historically republicans at lower levels have suffered with that -- the main threat to right leaning politicos being further right politicos if not outright replacing them then spoiler effect (some d gets 30%, some R that would normally have got 45% then gets a 20% drop to someone further right R and oh wow). Where that balance lies for independents, turnout of various parties and libertarian protest or whatever vote I am still unsure.
My history isn't great, but I think this is a cycle we've seen throughout US history with both major parties. The parties have swayed enough over time to actually completely swap identities - the Democrats were closer to today's Republicans before Roosevelt came along, from what I remember learning. So I'd anticipate how "left/right" the parties go will depend on what's going on in the world during election season, and how opposing the sides are. The popular vote results should still loosely reflect how liberal or conservative the public feels we should steer the ship, although there's evidence to support that we generally lean liberal, but due to voter turnout that's not always reflected. I don't think Independents stand a chance until they get funding that can compete with the two major parties. It's my main gripe with our system. Advertising runs our election cycles for us, and I feel like it undermines the ideology. But I'm also a random dude who doesn't really know any better, that's just my perception.

Maybe I'm off base here, though - do you agree/disagree with any of this as far as the likelihood of him getting re-elected? I'd probably say I sit at a solid 95% level of confidence he doesn't have a shot.
 
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BitMasterPlus

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your gonna wish you never said that in 60 years when our planet kills itself
Trump becoming president again equates to the planet imploding on itself. Make sense, like lighting a match and throwing it on the ground in Antarctica will instantly melt the entire continent and cause major flooding around the globe.
 
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