He was a bellend on social media before/during the runup to presidency and throughout it. Did not particularly seem to bother much there, some even enjoyed it.
This is true, although I feel he tipped those scales throughout the presidency. This is anecdotal, but I'm in a particularly red area, and the view on his brashness from my peers went from "Haha, go get 'em and screw the establishment, Trump!" to "Okay, this is a bit too much" once we got to the capital situation. Even online, while obviously I can't know what everybody thought about it, I saw a trend of people agreeing it was an extremely bad call compared to his behavior leading up to being elected. His ratings reflected it, as well, for what those are worth.
As far as the whole 6th of January thing. So a bunch of people that nominally supported him (as opposed to being authorised/sent/condoned by him) ran around the capital and got a bit rowdy to a far lesser extent than various other protests
Yes, there have existed protests where more bodily harm and property damage occurred - that's a fact.
However, the people that sparked these generally aren't trying to be elected as president. As a president, speaking to the public and being the voice of government is one of the most powerful tools at your disposal. Trump seemed to be weaponizing this to fight against not being re-elected, and I think a lot of Americans agree that we'd rather have a President who wields that power more carefully.
While he did tell the crowd to please be peaceful, he certainly should have been aware of the consequences of using ignorant assumptions (or lies, honestly we have no way of knowing, but that's moot) to tell his country their democracy was being compromised, when all the evidence said otherwise. His choice of words leading up to that were incredibly poor, imo.
I generally vote based on policy and not public opinion on what politicians say, but I have to concede that I'm in the minority on that, and so I'd be very surprised if he was re-elected at this point. I also don't want to have somebody in office that lacks damage control with the public, regardless of policy, so he certainly wouldn't get my vote. He's just too reckless for me to feel confident putting him back in office.
As far as dealing with the media. He could have done a better job of killing it but it was left kneecapped and bleeding by the end.
I sympathize with a president getting irritated by the Media, but as far as Presidents being treated unfairly by Media go, Trump had small potatoes compared to, say, Kennedy's Catholicism being a big problem. Past presidents have addressed common Media clickbait info far more elegantly than Trump was able to. Again, gotta hand it to the politicians.
On less dramatic policies then I will note that historically republicans at lower levels have suffered with that -- the main threat to right leaning politicos being further right politicos if not outright replacing them then spoiler effect (some d gets 30%, some R that would normally have got 45% then gets a 20% drop to someone further right R and oh wow). Where that balance lies for independents, turnout of various parties and libertarian protest or whatever vote I am still unsure.
My history isn't great, but I think this is a cycle we've seen throughout US history with both major parties. The parties have swayed enough over time to actually completely swap identities - the Democrats were closer to today's Republicans before Roosevelt came along, from what I remember learning. So I'd anticipate how "left/right" the parties go will depend on what's going on in the world during election season, and how opposing the sides are. The popular vote results should still loosely reflect how liberal or conservative the public feels we should steer the ship, although there's evidence to support that we generally lean liberal, but due to voter turnout that's not always reflected. I don't think Independents stand a chance until they get funding that can compete with the two major parties. It's my main gripe with our system. Advertising runs our election cycles for us, and I feel like it undermines the ideology. But I'm also a random dude who doesn't really know any better, that's just my perception.
Maybe I'm off base here, though - do you agree/disagree with any of this as far as the likelihood of him getting re-elected? I'd probably say I sit at a solid 95% level of confidence he doesn't have a shot.