British Election thread 2019

[notimp]

Key word - end of century. (Better growth trends for the UK long term, hasher impact short term.)

(Also predictions, but yeah )
-

But more than that, this is the problem with "camp" like thinking. Lets presume, those predictions are correct. What are the reasons for them?

If you end up at 'dwindling populations' and high economic status that is only surpassed by nations that are currently at a growth path out of second or third world status (except britan - in the theoretical argument) - here comes the kicker - will it get better if you leave the EU?

As a political argument to convince people to do anything this is about the worst possible argument you can make - but taken certain developments as a given...

UK held a special position in regards to that because of former industrial and financial networks, their "expertise" in sectors that can easily be scaled up regardless of regionality (think financial services) - and in the end, economic growth doesnt reflect income growth in recent years - because of automation as a factor...

(So at this point, simply think - what if 'the hardships of brexit' can be used to further lower wages, while investing in automation, thus producing higher GDP growth that people will never see... Again - you voted more market liberal, right. )
-

All that said - from a certain perspective, it made sense, that the UK left the EU at this point, took the economic hit, and got on a better growth curve long term.

Just the people voting for that did so because of lies, will on average not reap the benefits in their lifetimes - and its not sure if the economic paradigm can hold - past, well you decide, but everyone on the left is seemingly searching for something new. (From a position of obscurity at this point. )

Point being - the paths along which you'll grow are by first reducing quality of work, social security structures and income - while trying to get rid of structural dependance of imports. (Or not. ) So thats not a fun time.
-

In the end - those graphs basically show:

"What - we be able to have 'free trade' with the EU and a sector of 'lower wage' jobs to have 'free trade' with the south east - unrestricted and not having to account for what that means for italy, or spain, or..." Well yes - its a better growth potential - naturally.

Again - this is not a hard brexit scenario - where you'd be first kicked back to the stone ages, .. You simply gained the freedom to outcompete other EU states, 'gaining back control over the economy' without loosing the european free market, right?

(Then - longterm, europe will get less important, because of popultion trends alone.)

The thing is - with every other country in the world, especially the smaller ones, trade deals usually get 'dictated' by the bigger economy.

So - if your target markets to grow on are Malaysia and Singapore, your trade deals still may be favorable - if you are f.e. Poland, or Italy, and not the UK - they are not. Economically you were such a huge part of the EU, that no other countries can follow your example basically. (And you are an island. (Meaning, what do you care, about people on the continent.))

Also - there is a difference between becoming the sixth largest economy (thats below India afair), and trying to compete with the US or China. (There are limits.. )

 

[notimp]

Ah, found the point where your statistics 'lied'.

UK, wont be 'growing' either.

So after a short period of declining faster than the EU, you will start to decline slower than germany. On a GDP basis.

This be the glorious predicted future.

So - part of the initial argument of staying in the EU was - that with a larger 'economic block' you could have stemmed the tied of 'loosing relative GDP' longer - thus, also resulting in more economic growth.

But you were used by the US as splitters. So you could be 0.1 percent better (in relative terms) than Germany in 2100, but at the same time - loose half of your overall GDP - with the rest of europe (comparatively - to the rest of the worlds, at that point).

Great.

Look, you are even 0.2 percent above Ethiopia.

 

[notimp]

Because the initial graph ("Which position will we be at relatively to the world.") is quite useless - its a sports metaphor basically, because you cant buy yourself anything for being fifth, or sixth - but fun, I took a second look.

According to the graph UKs 'uptick' (getting one position better, while loosing almost half of your relative (in percentage points) GDP) will start in 2070. Yay!

So lets say you are 20 years old as of now - you'll be 70, when you reep the economic benefits.

That arent there, because actually you also are on steep decline.

And all during that decline that doesnt show up in 'rank' - that still would have been less pronounced (only in the short term) if you've had stayed in the EU.

Only US is funnier.

So from 2020 to 2100 US will loose 50% of relative GDP, while increasing population by 30%. Thats... Sportive.. Never looked at that too closely before. So social friction will be through the roof at that point. If you don't counter with Propaganda.

If you take France f.e. (as an impromptu average for EU countries (which it isnt, but lets )) - it will lose 50% of their relative GPD, but at least also only gain 0.2% in population.

So... I don't quite know how Politico comes up with their headlines, but..
All still referencing the prediction data from:
https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-on-the-wane-global-economics-demographics-gdp/

edit: Great graphs though, btw. Thank you for linking.

 

[FAST6191]

I was hoping for a more in depth analysis than that video provided in the end but it did showcase an interesting approach, and provided something a bit more eloquent than the "what fucking production?" reply I can only give when some types prattle on about the means of it. The stuff about nonsense jobs also intrigued me, especially when looking at high tech sectors and how relatively few employees they have. I would also wonder if things could be spun up from the ground up to dodge the administrator inefficiency (as it stands we are already slowly reinventing the dual paths thing for engineering type roles where you can become manglement, or just become bloody good at what you do and paid accordingly).

 

[JoeBloggs777]

Ah, found the point where your statistics 'lied'.

UK, wont be 'growing' either.

So after a short period of declining faster than the EU, you will start to decline slower than germany. On a GDP basis.

This be the glorious predicted future.

So - part of the initial argument of staying in the EU was - that with a larger 'economic block' you could have stemmed the tied of 'loosing relative GDP' longer - thus, also resulting in more economic growth.

But you were used by the US as splitters. So you could be 0.1 percent better (in relative terms) than Germany in 2100, but at the same time - loose half of your overall GDP - with the rest of europe (comparatively - to the rest of the worlds, at that point).

Great.

Look, you are even 0.2 percent above Ethiopia.

you know the problem with statistics, if you put your head in the oven and your feet in the fridge, statistics say your doing ok

I don't think all this takes account of the UK no longer being in the EU not that it would make much difference.

I don't know where this American company got their figures from, but The Philippines will be the 10th biggest economy by 2100 !

 

[notimp]

Don't know - sources would be nice, but they only link one (?) UN level source as source for all their data? Visializations are nice though.

My best guess is, that it does include brexit trends, because the UK gets a relative uptick (compared to germany), which wouldnt be that distinct of a trend otherwise. I could be wrong though. Italy drops from 2.5% relative GDP to 0.8% in 2100 - so thats the 'trends' they are working with. If 'further unification of Europe' had taken place with UK cooperation, maybe that wouldn't show as harsh.

That was what you (UK citizens average ) feared right - that you'd have to help Italy more.. That you shouldnt outcompete their manufacturing base, right.

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------

I was hoping for a more in depth analysis than that video provided in the end but it did showcase an interesting approach, and provided something a bit more eloquent than the "what fucking production?" reply I can only give when some types prattle on about the means of it. The stuff about nonsense jobs also intrigued me, especially when looking at high tech sectors and how relatively few employees they have. I would also wonder if things could be spun up from the ground up to dodge the administrator inefficiency (as it stands we are already slowly reinventing the dual paths thing for engineering type roles where you can become manglement, or just become bloody good at what you do and paid accordingly).

Yes only one guy with a prefixed notion. But at least its something that could describe what the nationalistic right tapped into. More analyses welcome.

(Not the best video I've posted - I agree. )

 

[notimp]

Because I really liked those graphs, I extrapolated per million (population) relative GDP (in percentage points) now and in 2100 for five countries.

Relative per million capita percentage points of world wide GDP

US today:
0.06
US 2100:
0.023

Germany today:
0.055
Germany 2100:
0.024

UK today:
0.049
UK 2100:
0.024

Ethiopia today:
0.0006
Ethiopia 2100:
0.0057
(Thats 10x wealth gain (as per percentage points of world GDP) )

India today:
0.0027
India 2100:
0.0136
(Thats 5x wealth gain (as per percentage points of world GDP) )

China today:
0.010
China 2100:
0.014
(Thats 1.4x wealth gain (as per percentage points of world GDP) )

Thats globalization, my friends.

Also - per capita average may very well be wrongly skewed, because it assumes, that wealth is equally distributed - which it wont be.

In total numbers, of course, south east asia will wipe the floor with everyone else.

Africa will become another Europe.

Iraq will be wealthy.

 

[Doran754]

Seems I missed this thread but the results are very interesting. Just like Twitter it seems gbatemp is a left leaning echo chamber with no actual relevance to the real world. Seems gbatemp, much like Twitter, has lost another election.

 

[FAST6191]

Seems I missed this thread but the results are very interesting. Just like Twitter it seems gbatemp is a left leaning echo chamber with no actual relevance to the real world. Seems gbatemp, much like Twitter, has lost another election.

To be an echo chamber don't you have to allow no dissenting opinion or discussions? Plenty of people seem to be having discussions about any party, any which way as far as political thoughts, philosophies and actions and seems to have a bit of point-counterpoint too rather than shouting into the void.
I would be surprised if the site was not left leaning (younger people, like games, quite content to raise the finger to businesses) but maybe reserve the claims of echo chamber for when there is one, lest you be like the oxygen thieves crying fascist when there is not really any anywhere near any kind of power.

 

[Doran754]

Other than me and maybe JoeBloggs its basically an echo chamber. You all spout the same trash and then wonder why the country didn't vote the way you'd like. It's almost as if insulting people for 4 years and calling them racist sexist xenophobes (and yes, fascists as you so aptly point out) doesn't get you votes. If this site is filled mainly with younger people giving businesses the middle finger and expecting free stuff for life and their student debts cancelled, maybe one from this band of geniuses can explain why they never seem to be able to get in power. Why is Europe rejecting the left? Has anyone on the left on this site asked why you keep getting rejected and how to fix it or is it gonna be 4 more years of (WE WANT A THIRD REFERENDUM, RUSSIAN BOTS, YOU CHEATED)

Personally I hope it carries on, I love nothing more than watching the left implode on it's own bs political ideologies.

 

[FAST6191]

I resent being lumped in with the left you seem to so fear -- I would say I have more embraced nihilism than anything I saw in the labour/snp/lib dem manifesto, or at best all (right wing included) have massive flaws with regards to their embrace of science, ideas on free speech (all these recent prosecutions for gross offence were allowed to continue despite the right being in a prime position to reign in the CPS or quash things), approaches to justice/criminal reform, IP law (I am quite dreading what we might see with the upcoming American negotiations here -- their term lengths, software patents and medical/DNA patents tend to be a fairly key export and I don't know that enough people will care to resist those), international relations, healthcare and probably economics as well. I would also say I am quite amused at the slow implosion of labour, and indeed hope it speeds up and we get a nice reformation into a coherent opposition by losing the baggage they seem to have acquired (or give some measure of free reign) in recent times.

I would also say again that to be an echo chamber you really want active suppression or maybe a seriously heavy social stigma against the dissenting views for your particular flavour. You may find yourself in the political equivalent of a sausage fest or clam bake as the case may be but that does not inherently an echo chamber make.

Bill Bailey once had a sketch along the lines of "I have been a lifelong supporter of the labour party, however right now it is like being a fan of a band when they have just released a weird concept album (though that was during the initial ousting, right now we are probably way past that)" and you may find that quite reflects the opinions of many here (looking at speeches and actions thus far even one Mr Johnson seems to recognise that much support given him is rather tenuous and possibly based on Labour becoming a bunch of fucknuts the last cycle or two, personally I would say longer still as I am also not a fan of Blair but he at least could command something). I would also say that most around here are not doing the headless chicken thing you do encounter in a few places and are quite prepared to analyse stats (scroll up if you want), campaign promises, methods and more besides.
You might do better then to meet someone along lines of common ground. Or if you prefer I was leading more towards maybe embrace the 90s hacker ideals that you might well share with those you otherwise seek to laugh out. The businesses thing is usually more when they stomp on in, try to take things we have had for years otherwise, try to prevent people from doing their own thing with their own thing that the company made, and otherwise do the whole maximum profits at the cost of long term viability, stability and fun. Free stuff is nice but just as many would happily acknowledge that funding has to come from somewhere.

Similarly is Europe rejecting the left? While there have certainly been some interesting elections in a few places what are the resulting policies and courses of action in most places? Indeed, assuming the simple left-right divide is a useful concept*, what do we call the left? The right in Europe would not make its way in the right wing of the 70s (and definitely not the 20s, 40s, 50s or prior) or probably America right now -- how much of the European right (or politics in general) really gives a flying fuck about abortion, gun control, religious principles (give or take Poland and Ireland but even then the trajectory seems to be one way for those places), is gung ho for military spending, is not for healthcare, is opposed to putting a collar on business (the economic free zones thing Mr Johnson seems to be banking on still represent quite considerable tariffs and restrictions, just a different take on the matter, and one that is already done all over Europe)... all bread and butter of the US right there.


*the endless axes (do we have the socially blah but economically other, or authoritarian vs libertarian) and compass tests are amusing to design and contemplate but still struggle to represent more complicated positions.

 

[Deleted User]

At this point I'm just hoping they leave the EU, but I don't trust any of the politicians or the parties. Just get it done one way or another.

Key word - end of century. (Better growth trends for the UK long term, hasher impact short term.)

(Also predictions, but yeah )
-

But more than that, this is the problem with "camp" like thinking. Lets presume, those predictions are correct. What are the reasons for them?

If you end up at 'dwindling populations' and high economic status that is only surpassed by nations that are currently at a growth path out of second or third world status (except britan - in the theoretical argument) - here comes the kicker - will it get better if you leave the EU?

As a political argument to convince people to do anything this is about the worst possible argument you can make - but taken certain developments as a given...

UK held a special position in regards to that because of former industrial and financial networks, their "expertise" in sectors that can easily be scaled up regardless of regionality (think financial services) - and in the end, economic growth doesnt reflect income growth in recent years - because of automation as a factor...

(So at this point, simply think - what if 'the hardships of brexit' can be used to further lower wages, while investing in automation, thus producing higher GDP growth that people will never see... Again - you voted more market liberal, right. )
-

All that said - from a certain perspective, it made sense, that the UK left the EU at this point, took the economic hit, and got on a better growth curve long term.

Just the people voting for that did so because of lies, will on average not reap the benefits in their lifetimes - and its not sure if the economic paradigm can hold - past, well you decide, but everyone on the left is seemingly searching for something new. (From a position of obscurity at this point. )

Point being - the paths along which you'll grow are by first reducing quality of work, social security structures and income - while trying to get rid of structural dependance of imports. (Or not. ) So thats not a fun time.
-

In the end - those graphs basically show:

"What - we be able to have 'free trade' with the EU and a sector of 'lower wage' jobs to have 'free trade' with the south east - unrestricted and not having to account for what that means for italy, or spain, or..." Well yes - its a better growth potential - naturally.

Again - this is not a hard brexit scenario - where you'd be first kicked back to the stone ages, .. You simply gained the freedom to outcompete other EU states, 'gaining back control over the economy' without loosing the european free market, right?

(Then - longterm, europe will get less important, because of popultion trends alone.)

The thing is - with every other country in the world, especially the smaller ones, trade deals usually get 'dictated' by the bigger economy.

So - if your target markets to grow on are Malaysia and Singapore, your trade deals still may be favorable - if you are f.e. Poland, or Italy, and not the UK - they are not. Economically you were such a huge part of the EU, that no other countries can follow your example basically. (And you are an island. (Meaning, what do you care, about people on the continent.))

Also - there is a difference between becoming the sixth largest economy (thats below India afair), and trying to compete with the US or China. (There are limits.. )

Dude, your comment does not have enough emojis. You gotta insert more.