British Election thread 2019

[notimp]

Here a more detailed Breakdown of the Vote Leave position at the time (2016). Interesting as well. Stick to it till the end, interesting snippets of information mostly get layered in towards the end. (Appart from a full (?) set of investors being listed in the middle of it, if you are into that sort of stuff. )


Title of the video is horrible btw.

 

[Taleweaver]

Okay... I'm late to the party, but to be honest I don't really know what to add.

It's no lie : I don't like the election results, but I've got to admit I was wrong. I was honestly convinced that the bremainders had become a minority since that referendum the years ago. At least these election results show that there is genuine interest from the people in getting brexit done (1). I respect their opinion to be wrong to do whatever the fuck they want to do.

Best of luck, UK-ians.

(1): okay... Scotland not withstanding. But they can't hold the rest of the UK hostage because they don't want to leave

 

[x65943]

Okay... I'm late to the party, but to be honest I don't really know what to add.

It's no lie : I don't like the election results, but I've got to admit I was wrong. I was honestly convinced that the bremainders had become a minority since that referendum the years ago. At least these election results show that there is genuine interest from the people in getting brexit done (1). I respect their opinion to be wrong to do whatever the fuck they want to do.

Best of luck, UK-ians.

(1): okay... Scotland not withstanding. But they can't hold the rest of the UK hostage because they don't want to leave

The get Brexit done crowd got about 46% of the vote.

The second referendum/cancel Brexit crowd got over 50%.

It's still about half and half - the only reason the Tories won so many seats is because of FPTP voting system they have got in the UK. They won fair and square but the winning party getting so many seats cannot be said to truly represent the will of the people - who have been shown to now slightly support remain.

I just hope Labour now understands the UK needs to reform voting laws and step into the 21st century.

 

[Viri]

I don't like them putting chemicals in the water that turn the friggin frogs gay.

I don't like the fact that my state has an air force base, that is "accidentally" putting that foam that fire fighters use into our water. It's causing cancer left and right in a small town near me.

Spoiler

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/canc...s-drinking-water-near-military-bases-n1101736

 

[JoeBloggs777]

The get Brexit done crowd got about 46% of the vote.

The second referendum/cancel Brexit crowd got over 50%.

It's still about half and half - the only reason the Tories won so many seats is because of FPTP voting system they have got in the UK. They won fair and square but the winning party getting so many seats cannot be said to truly represent the will of the people - who have been shown to now slightly support remain.

I just hope Labour now understands the UK needs to reform voting laws and step into the 21st century.

I wonder how many people didn't vote because after more than 3 years were still in the EU?, I've seen a few people on tv saying they will never vote again because the first referendum has not been carried out

after 3 years of sabotage by MP's and kicking the can down the road with all the threats of drug and food shortages and massive job losses I'm surprised its still as high as 46% who still want to leave.

 

[x65943]

I wonder how many people didn't vote because after more than 3 years were still in the EU?, I've seen a few people on tv saying they will never vote again because the first referendum has not been carried out

after 3 years of sabotage by MP's and kicking the can down the road with all the threats of drug and food shortages and massive job losses I'm surprised its still as high as 46% who still want to leave.

Same could be said about remainers not voting

 

[JoeBloggs777]

Same could be said about remainers not voting

no because some who voted to leave have lost trust in Politicians and the system, while remainers have a reason to vote because they have been given a second chance to vote for a party to cancel brexit.

 

[GhostLatte]

Monty Python was pretty good at portraying British political parties.

 

[x65943]

no because some who voted to leave have lost trust in Politicians and the system, while remainers have a reason to vote because they have been given a second chance to vote for a party to cancel brexit.

Young people have the lowest voter turnout, young people are overwhelmingly remain

You do the math on which side isn't voting

 

[JoeBloggs777]

Young people have the lowest voter turnout, young people are overwhelmingly remain

You do the math on which side isn't voting

well I've seen a few teenagers on tv moaning they were too young to vote in the referendum but could now vote in the election now but it looks like many couldn't be bothered

I wonder how many of the 3 million Waspi women voted for Labour and how many voted Tory. 3 million could make a massive difference to an election.

 

[FGFlann]

I don't believe it is fair to definitively categorize the voting base into percentages for leave and remain on the grounds of the election result. A lot of party based voting is inherently tribal and does not necessarily reflect one's opinions on a single issue. Though the conservative's gains in labour traditional areas are a good indicator of the popularity of leave, a lot of that tribal voting is still a very real factor, particularly in areas like South Wales where the cultural anti-tory sentiment is very strong.

 

[Tarmfot]

so when is he gonna delay brexit again?

Probably they will purposely do a bad brexit that will cause another election/referendum where remainders win.
This implies no scottish referendum. The first was actually without warranties...

 

[notimp]

After you have brexited you cant just vote yourself back in. You'd have to go through the entire admission process again, you will loose all special privileges the UK currently holds within the EU, so reentering wouldnt be the same, even in theory.

The idea that THEY would do a bad deal, so people would vote remain again is preposterous.

All deals they can do are bad compared to what you had. Thats the entire point. You voted leave, now you will suffer economically, so will the EU. But the UK initially will hurt more - because it depends more on EU trade than the other way arrund. In the short term. Five years at least.

The only way around it would be to structure trade deals that would be 'like you were in the EU' but without being in the EU, which the EU cant grant you.

You have the designer of the brexit movement state on video, that he reckons, that after brexit - the EU will move, and structure you a cushy bilateral trade deal, as to not hurt itself as well in the process. That was his plan. Be it a flawed (but not entirely unlikely) one.

So who are you talking about.

They make me vote! (No one in power wanted brexit.) Then they make me vote opposite! (No its not your decision, its always theirs! Wait, who are we talking about?).

You've got your right to remain isolationist and buy products from the US back, dont worry. Your right to undercut EU standards when dealing with Malaysia. Your rights to produce shoes cheaper and with less labor cost than italy. Thats what you wanted.

The brexit chief strategist (Cummings) is on tape (video linked in here) saying, we were lucky, because we could count on the trifactor of 2008 in the minds of the public, the migration crises (now pretty much under wraps) in the EU, and them wanting a thing back that probably never existed - otherwise, the remainers position of 'there will be an economic fallout' would have prevailed.

Who is they?

My side cant even be accused of producing what they said they would produce? Bad trade deal. And economic suffering? (Short term at least)?

Or do we have a huge misunderstanding about what a 'bad deal' consists of?

Because most of what Boris is as far as we can tell was an internal party revolt to get the architects of the thing in power - so the EU still wont change your deal substantially. But now its not May in power anymore - horray. Deal so much better now.

 

[JoeBloggs777]

you will loose all special privileges the UK currently holds within the EU

what privileges, Thatchers rebate ?

The idea that THEY would do a bad deal, so people would vote remain again is preposterous.

if you mean the Labour party by 'THEY' then what would be their deal ?. I doubt it would be much different from what we have now with the EU.

But the UK initially will hurt more - because it depends more on EU trade than the other way arrund. In the short term. Five years at least.

In 2018, UK exports to the EU were £291 billion (45% of all UK exports). UK imports from the EU were £357 billion (53% of all UK imports). The share of UK exports accounted for by the EU has generally fallen over time from 55% in 2006 to 44% in 2016, though this increased slightly to 45% in 2018.

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7851

The only way around it would be to structure trade deals that would be 'like you were in the EU' but without being in the EU, which the EU cant grant you.

It looks like Boris was thinking of a “super Canada-plus” trade deal with the EU

https://www.theweek.co.uk/brexit/90320/what-is-a-canada-style-brexit

 

[notimp]

Yes I meant the rebates. But not only those you gained at the time of thatcher, but also extended under Blair and Cameron f.e.

Britain always got special status within the EU, git concessions no one else got.

EU exit deal is basically fixed for maybe a year now. Labor, Torries, Brexit parties opinion don't mean a thing at this point.

(Labor would have - If you'd have decided to really undo the referendum.)

They matter for what comes in your country after. 'Get Brexit done.' was a nice slogan, but it wasn't very 'true' to the point. (If you werent in fantasy land of: We can still undo it! Or in fear land, that this still could become true.)

So your entire last election, basically was about 'who' (and mostly what fraction - not what party) is in power (and how strong the opposition will be) during transition. But not because of 'EU deal' but because of what they can do after brexit.

Bojo will basically take the same deal as May - with some small concessions, that you won't remember in two years time.

(Talking hypotheticals with labor in power it may have been different, but even thats unlikely.)

So my point being - the person talking about 'THEY' (not mentioned who they were meaning) - might make a bad deal, so we vote 'get all into the EU again' is entirely delusional. The time for 'backsies' and 'british exceptionalism' (lets bend the rules again!) is over once and for all.

No - now is the time for everyone to suffer to think about what they have done.

And suffering was - hat the Brexit party wanted for most of you short term. (Brighter future (growth), not specified when, remember?)

And what happens after that - is out of anyones hands. You cant very well plan those things - as you've all just impressively shown to the world.

In 2018, UK exports to the EU were £291 billion (45% of all UK exports). UK imports from the EU were £357 billion (53% of all UK imports). The share of UK exports accounted for by the EU has generally fallen over time from 55% in 2006 to 44% in 2016, though this increased slightly to 45% in 2018.

Exactly. The UKs suffering will be larger, because they depend more on the EU as a market, than the EU does depend on them.
See: https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN02815 (Trade deficit is what you are looking for.)

Half of what you depend on in your country comes from the EU. Half of what you sell to anyone in the world, still goes to the EU.

For the EU the UK were basically the entryway for international investment, because UK had a history in liberal finance stewardship, and everyone there spoke english. Now this function has to be moved over to Frankfurt (different corperate culture) - the end. (It will hurt investment flows into the EU). We will also miss your consumers. Not as much as you will miss ours though.

Last part is - why we will still have free trade in some form.

 

[notimp]

It looks like Boris was thinking of a “super Canada-plus” trade deal with the EU

Hey mister we have to explain basics to you a year after all of this is over. What Boris was thinking of, doesnt matter sh*t.

EU has to balance giving the UK all benefits of being a member state of the EU with none of the cost payed - because if they start doing that it wil produce internal revolts of other member states wanting the same. So 'pick and choose' and more better than Canada super plus are all delusions.

You just made your country less important (smaller), by voting yourself out of one of the bigger fractions (EU), remember?

If you are stupid enough, that you could be made to vote in the last election based on thinking, that that was what you were voting for - congratulations, slap yourself in the face. Really- you don't get another three years for realizing what song is playing.
--

The actual argument of the brexiters sounds something like this.

We see all future growth markets (in services mostly) outside of the EU (because of demographics, and international power shifts (people in the EU getting old). Sadly, also mostly in second or third world economies. So we have to lower the frack out of our common (social and work) standards, to also be able to do deals over there.

So - lets get out of the EU to be able to do that.

Where will prosperity come from? If you get rid of high standards and make deals with thailand at a fraction of the cost you could have while still in the EU, companies that wouldnt have been viable in the past can grow. If something works as a trend and others try to replicate it - educated workers in that sector get paid more, because they cant be produced as fast as they are needed.

But for you to get to the point where you are economically competitive with Singapore - its now a few years of suffering ('degrowth') for you.

The end.

(One more explanation - a 'good deal with the EU' would mean, that you can adjust the speed of that process better. Basically. So that you don't have to do it next day. Thats all. (Because to export wares into the EU you still have to adhere to common market standards - so you cant undercut those, so there is not where you get your benefits - the opposite actually. Costs here will rise.) Thats all you ever wanted - really. That and not paying for EU projects.)

 

[JoeBloggs777]

Half of what you depend on in your country comes from the EU. Half of what you sell to anyone in the world, still goes to the EU.

The share of UK exports accounted for by the EU has generally fallen over time from 55% in 2006 to 44% in 2016, though this increased slightly to 45% in 2018.

Exports from UK to EU has fallen by 10% over 12 years, so the UK now is exporting 10% more to countries outside the EU than it did 12 years ago, don't you think the UK can increase its exports to the USA ( i think our biggest export market outside the EU at 14%) , China and the rest of the world ?

 

[notimp]

Yes, EU isnt a growth market for UK exports anymore. 44% is still a large number ("half").

What you'd actually look at is trade deficit. So how much more do you import than export? From a certain region. And then look at the same number on the EUs side (different countries). (Germnay afair will be hit most by Brexit on the EUs side btw)

Btw what innovations has the UK produced in the last 12 years? So thats the other side of the coin, if you have free trade - and you are not staying competitive, but are still a high wage economy - worth will leave your country.

Also - understand that everyone still wants a free market in some form (some sectors excluded maybe (protectionism)). So regardless of what that number is, you are not cutting ties there. You are not doing a hard brexit as far as I've come to understand..

Meaning the whole 'better deal' always actually was about 'getting sovereignty back' but thats solely to undercut your workers rights and regulations when dealing with poorer (but still likely to grow) countries. No one - and especially not the US want more regulation and workers rights than the EU essentially.

So its sovereignty over being able to turn down (reduce) rights and regulations when dealing with other countries (so to f.e. outcompete lets say italy in shoes - which is one of their main industries, which EU would have prevented), and at your own speed.

Thats the freedom you have gained. Look at small and medium enterprises in the labor sector. Their conditions should actually deteriorate, and not improve over the next few years. So whatever xenophobic motive ('more money for our people') people might have held there, they have voted against their interest actually.

And you made sure to vote in a very market liberal govenment on top of that, so yeah..

Good news is, that after the shock - you might grow your country 'better' to what it was where you left the EU (you exchanged better growth trends long term for worse economic conditions short term, and poorer working conditions). But predictions say thats starting maybe after five years - not short term.

And your national banks will pump in credit to lessen the short term impact (keep the pound strong), but you'll still feel it. (Recession, stagnation, ..)

Savings on EU projects is nothing compared to what has to be invested there. But that goes on top of your state deficit, so thats your long, long credit line - so impact can be negotiated politically (when you do something about that). It never was about the money you payed for EU projects. Comparatively those are peanuts. You get one new hospital in Bojos home town, and thats it. To better health care for the (not so affluent) elderly is not a priority in a recession.

edit: And you are out of 'further integration projects within the EU' common banking system, common army, exchange system on higher education (private (work visas) and public) ... But you'll, still retain 'partner status' on those at least. Probably. To at least have an inside view of whats going on.

 

[notimp]

Analysis of what happened (2019 general elections in the UK) from the left is there.

 

[JoeBloggs777]

well from this report it doesn't look good for the EU but good for the UK.

Only one EU country is predicted to improve its standing in the ranking of the world’s largest economies by the end of the century: Britain will go from the world’s seventh largest economy to its sixth largest.

https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-on-the-wane-global-economics-demographics-gdp/