[Poll]Your prediction of the escalating trade taxes...

Discussion in 'World News, Current Events & Politics' started by Taleweaver, Jun 20, 2018.

?
  1. Not much: boosting in the press, but most/all of this will be quietly lowered/removed in the future

    27.8%
  2. The current+announced taxes will take place, no one will like the other's taxes, but everyone abides

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. This goes until US citizens won't take it anymore and Trump's government is (figuratively) crucified

    22.2%
  4. Other countries will join China and things will escalate until the USA is as isolated as N. Korea

    27.8%
  5. The trade war at some point escalates into an actual war

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. I have no freaking clue, so...CARROT CAKE COMEDY CHOICE!!!!!!

    22.2%
  1. Taleweaver
    OP

    Taleweaver Storywriter

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    Economy is a field I really don't understand. Or more to the point: I'm interested in it and I can follow reasoning (assuming speakers don't go overboard on financial terms), but I have no fucking idea to properly predict ANYTHING. Meaning: I had no idea of the financial crisis until it happened and for the life of me, I can't predict any outcome on most actions. I mean...my views on the blonde president are pretty known by now, but AMERICAN ECONOMY IS ACTUALLY DOING GREAT.

    And I'm sure that's pretty hard to combine that (or 'reconcile with'? sorry, but I don't know the correct English term here) with the constant...erm...lack of diplomacy on behalf of the US government toward the rest of the world.


    As such, I've mostly ignored the news on the economic stuff. I mean...I don't work in the steel industry, so this was (and still is) just another episode in the daily Trump soap opera. And admitted: I assumed it would blow over. Trade taxes are nothing new and used often by countries to simulate internal industry over extern imports, so...what's the big deal? Should Trump not get to exercise this presidential right because he's handling it in an anti-diplomatic matter? I should also note that his behavior in the past has caused some sort of schadenfreude-effect (meaning: whenever an article has "Trump" in the headline, we read it more for gossip material than to actually learn something), so...I dismissed it.

    I'm not sure if that can still be said. Things are escalating on this front. So let's recap things a bit (copied from my local newspaper):

    -march 22: US starts with 25% import taxes on steel and 10% on aluminium. Since lots of countries are excluded, China feels targetted
    -april 4th: China announces retaliation import taxes, mostly on food beverages
    -june 1st: the exemption of the EU, Canada and Mexio ends (meaning: they get the same trade taxes).
    -june 19: Trump announces more taxes on Chinese goods. China immediately responds with further import taxes as well (as well as "qualitative measurements", though it's barely specified in the paper outside "bureaucratic pandering toward US multinationals").
    Next step will be july 6th, when the US (and then China) puts these taxes in effect.

    The article also talks about economists fearing things. America is in a better economic position, but...well...like I said, I simply don't know how this'll turn out. Hence this thread: What do YOU think will happen?


    Of course the floor is open to discussion as well (but PLEASE keep it a tad on-topic. I wanna know what you think will happen to the USA and/or the rest of the world. There are plenty of threads where you can insult Trump in a creative way...please use those. Thanks. :)
     
  2. Viri

    Viri GBAtemp Addict

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    Not much: boosting in the press, but most/all of this will be quietly lowered/removed in the future.
     
  3. TotalInsanity4

    TotalInsanity4 GBAtemp Supreme Overlord

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    I DOUBT that it will end up going into actual combative war, but I do think that at some point one party or the other is going to have to give in, and I honestly don't see how it couldn't be the U.S. Everything will become too expensive to consume at some point due to tariffs, and you can only foot the blame on "poor people ruining the economy" for so long
     
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  4. Xzi

    Xzi Virtual Bartman

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    It'll go until Trump crashes the US economy. While other countries have been prospering economically, they've in turn been paying down their national debts, which is what helps to create stability. While the economy's been good, the US has just been giving out corporate welfare for free instead, and this has the opposite effect of ballooning our debt/deficit. Not to mention the Trump administration repealed Dodd-Frank and other protections put in place after the 2008 crash. All this combined with the trade war pretty much insures that the next crash will be worse than the last.
     
    Last edited by Xzi, Jun 20, 2018
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  5. Taleweaver
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    Taleweaver Storywriter

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    There's some news on this front. In the EU, we counteracted with the taxes by taxing some American stuff. Among which: Harley-Davidson. This morning, I read that they'll be outsourcing their motors for the EU market, as to evade the taxes.

    Donald Trump obviously doesn't like that consequence, and threaten to tax H.D.
     
  6. FAST6191

    FAST6191 Techromancer

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    Nov 21, 2005
    United States
    On the one hand there is much truth to the following


    On the other then seeing what China is doing in the world now with diplomats, investment and the like everywhere then I might go with the US will probably come out OK here, but not anywhere like the position it enjoyed. It is coasting on its laurels, such as they are, and basically then eating its reserves so as to be a lazy bastard. It is a fine policy for individual people (so many I know packed in the crazy work hours to instead enjoy more time, this running the gamut of ages) but for a nation state when not in some kind of post scarcity setup... not so much.

    Also related at this point


    Actually if we are doing historical things then some have pondered the present US' similarities to Rome, I would more look at the Hapsburgs.
     
  7. Taleweaver
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    Taleweaver Storywriter

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    I somewhat thought of bumping this thread a few times but forgot. What has happened:

    -tensions with China are still up. More than ever, though that may be a hyperbole considering the guy that announces these things.
    -with the EU, things seem to have settled down (quick source). Not sure how long that'll last once it turns out that elimination of taxes is something that is done directly and promises over what happens in the future is something that politicians can't make on behalf of their companies (I can get why we'd change to gas from USA rather than from Russia, but why would we increase soy when there's no demand for it? :unsure: )
    -Iran is quickly becoming very isolated. It still respects the clausules of the original treaty but its partners (including Belgium) back out because the USA might get pissed off at them.

    Of course it's easy to see the USA want the same Iran-scenario happening in China but that strikes me as pretty unlikely. China simply exports too much stuff to everyone. But as I mentioned in OP, I'm terrible at predicting these sorts of consequences.
     
  8. TotalInsanity4

    TotalInsanity4 GBAtemp Supreme Overlord

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    We don't. My home state is suffering right now agriculturally because China was our #1 importer of our #1 and 2 export
     
  9. Taleweaver
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    Taleweaver Storywriter

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    Okay...yet another bump. Partially because I've read an interesting article about it (this import tax escalation is 100 days old, apparently), and partially...well...because things are happening.

    -there's this weird bloomberg article that claims that China has put rice-sized chips in lots of ICT products. Weird because everyone's denying it except a few anonymous sources. Nonetheless, it is accepted as being the truth. I know bloomberg isn't a tabloid, but the ICT companies aren't pussies either.
    -at the moment, US's tariffs are at about 200 billion dollars (China taxes for about 60 billion dollars). Trump is apparently threatening to tax the full 500 billion dollars worth of US imports
    -Mike Pompeo visited China last monday, but instead of meeting the president he was "only" met with his colleague.
    -not sure how reliable "The atlantic" is, but they claim that US really wants a new cold war. (Ely Ratner "there are no plans for an agreement over tariffs").
    -China didn't like Pence's speech at Hudson. My local newspaper claims the language directly came from the cold war

    What worries me most is the bit where "less than ten days ago, an American and Chinese war ship came dangerously close to confrontation in the South Chinese sea".


    As I clearly said in the OP, I'm not smart enough to know much about economy. I do know that I trust economists more than Trump, because...well...Trump is an idiot. Economists predict worse times, and make adjustments for it. If not for anything else, it's because of 10 years of economic prosperity is pretty long. And there is something else, namely that economic war that is going on. Basically: economists imply that this whole Trump vs Xi thing is bad for the economy in the long run. Trump, however, doesn't do implying and directly says that these economists are insane.

    I'll leave you all to make up your mind on whom to believe.
     
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  10. TerribleTy27

    TerribleTy27 GBAtemp Regular

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    The tariff war, imo, is just a front. They both tend to talk strong and demand absurdities in public for the sake of their respective countries, but there's a hella lot happening in the background that we aren't seeing.
     
  11. Taleweaver
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    Taleweaver Storywriter

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    Erm...I don't always dismiss conspiracy theories, but you really might want to look into what you're saying here.

    That "front" you're talking about currently amounts to TWO HUNDRED AND SIXTY BILLION DOLLARS! That's already a lot, and on top of that it threatens the economy of at least the USA and China (most likely the rest of the world with it). If that's supposed to be the small stuff, then I certainly don't want to think what you might be talking about what the actual deal is, or how it could be hidden from the elite of economists.
     
  12. TerribleTy27

    TerribleTy27 GBAtemp Regular

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    That's chump change, all things considered. And besides, you misunderstood me. Trump has always been a talk-big-compromise-later business guy. That's his style. So I sincerely doubt that He'll keep raising the tariffs for very long.

    The entire thing is smoke and mirrors. They're screaming about it now (Why? Publicity is a guess, but still a guess.), But there's almost certainly going to be a backroom deal down the line. Moost likely to lower the tariffs quietly, but there could be something else.
     
    Last edited by TerribleTy27, Oct 12, 2018
  13. SG854

    SG854 Member 옷

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    The tariffs are not a good idea.

    Economists predicting the economy is a hard thing because they would have to predict what politicians are going to do, and nothing is more unpredictable then politicians.
     
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  14. SG854

    SG854 Member 옷

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    Here’s a real life example of steel tariffs.

    In the 80’s the steel industry feel from 340,000 to 125,000.

    Then they created laws and regulations to reduce imported steel. Since there was less steel overall, (and the basic economics of supply and demand), less steel meant higher prices in the U.S.

    Higher prices for industries that buy and make products out of steel (like cars, oil rigs, and anything else made of steel), means their products cost more to make up for more expensive steel they buy.

    American stuff made of steel being more expensive put us at a disadvantage in the international markets when competing with foreign products.

    Steel tariffs did create more jobs in the steel industry; 5,000 new jobs. And they did make $240 million in additional profits. But all the other American industries that made products out of steel lost $600 million dollars. And lost 26,000 jobs from more expensive steel.

    The American industry as a whole was worse off on net balance. People only look at the benefits tarrifs have on single industries rather than the whole industry.
     
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  15. Taleweaver
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    Another bump. As it turns out, there has been a massive dump of...well...billions of dollars lately.

    -Russia and China are dumping dollars the most. Neither are unexpected: Russia isn't allowed to trade in dollars, and the trade war obviously discourages China to keep their depth. The result is that e.g. (and foremost) oil trades to and from these countries can be done in yuan or euro's rather than dollars.
    -less expected is that other countries, like Japan, Venezuela and India do the same (though on a smaller scale).

    It was pretty known that China is/was US's factory: they provided a lot of goodies Americans wanted - and still want. As such, USA owed China a lot of money. So when I read that the majority of sellers of these "billions of dollars" (in IOU's, I guess? :unsure: ) were Americans, I assumed that they were just repaying their depth. But that's not really what's going on. It's mostly American investors and institutions, who weren't the ones creating the dept in the first place. I...don't know what that means for USA internal (if the repayments can't be done anymore, it won't be the other party that suffers the consequences, but USA itself...so I guess this is rather volatile? :unsure: ).

    On the other hand, the dumping of the dollar made those countries more free. For as long as I can remember, the dollar was known as the lingua franca of currencies. All oil trades happened in dollars because the USA could vouch for it. This, in turn, allowed the USA some sort of influence over trades, though I don't know how THAT works. However, the recent protectionist course of USA ("USA first!!") has paved the way for trades in other currencies.
     
  16. Hanafuda

    Hanafuda GBAtemp Addict

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    There's another consideration though - the United States as a nation needs to maintain a domestic steel industry for national security and defense purposes. It doesn't have to be on the level of the WWII - 1950's peak, but there needs to be some degree of heavy industry infrastructure present domestically. If preserving that negatively impacts other sectors to some extent, that's an acceptable loss for the sake of preventing the country becoming ENTIRELY dependent on imported sources for steel (which could be interrupted by the source nations) because domestic production capabilities would atrophy.

    Those kind of policy considerations may or may not be applicable in the current situation. Just point being, there are other factors to a healthy economy than the "net balance," particularly when longterm security is considered.
     
  17. Viri

    Viri GBAtemp Addict

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    Imo, China deserved to be sanctioned years ago, for what it's doing in the South China Sea. Claiming other country's lands as their own, and building artificial land on them.
     
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