I'm guessing you've forgotten about the 3DS and Nintendo's plan to have retail games made available via digital distribution (the Nintendo Network).
Which, last time I checked, is still just a rumor.
But if Nintendo didn't raise their download cap to more than 435MB then they're fucking retarded. Like way too retarded for them. If they don't make the cap more than that then they're not making a slip up, they're falling down the goddamn stairs.
The odds of them not being able to support anything above 500MB is incredibly slim. This is coming from the so-called "Nintendo doubter".
Isn't the current cap on Wiiware something like 40mb? I remeber something about the makers of Super Meat Boy weren't able to make a Wii version of their game because of horrible size constraints. If they really make Wii-U's eshop that high, it'll be quite a leap. It'll also be something Nintendo has never been known to do: Keep with the times in terms of online activities. I still doubt they will.