The media is creating mass hysteria over the Coronavirus.

notimp · Mar 25, 2020

Summer not likely to slow down spread by much, according to ECDC.
src: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...o-halt-coronavirus-eu-body-says-idUSKBN21C246

notimp · Mar 26, 2020

More philosophical commentary nonsense about 'using the crisis as a chance for behavioral change" ("war of the worlds" style angle), for a more climatefriendly future:

src: https://www.derstandard.at/story/20...aendnis-von-einem-guten-leben-wird-sich-durch (german)

Sh*t, so for 4% less deaths amongst our elderly, we shoehorned in the fourth life crisis for millenials (recession), and then should go with what Nanny and Granddad like in terms of "after a life of sustained personal stability and not giving a fuck about sustaining society - we honor thee by moving to the country, getting dumb and politically ineffective (no one cares about people in the country), planting trees, and pampering the fuckers that got us into this position, by not talking about this as a generational conflict".

Boomer cant loose. Even after corona they want their hero medal for not dying. And ruining the economy. And more attention because of it.

Look, they even have covinced their grandchildren, that climate is most importat. So stop your ambitions.

STOP YOUR AMBITIONS!

- 60% of all the irrational hate.

But thats a political doctrine.

And the fun part is, you cant even vote against it, because politics in most of western europe is an old folks bingo show.

notimp · Mar 26, 2020

Jeffrey D. Sachs on the current status quo in the US:

notimp · Mar 27, 2020

Donald Trump (voice snippet) believes that the US will not need 40.000 ventilators, and hospitals will be fine with one or two.

Never laughed so hysterically in my life.

Hanafuda · Mar 27, 2020

notimp said:
Donald Trump (voice snippet) believes that the US will not need 40.000 ventilators, and hospitals will be fine with one or two.

Never laughed so hysterically in my life.

That video's like the Alex Jones of the left. I wonder how many cats she has at home?

Also as for the whole "the US has overtaken China to lead the world in cases in Covid-19" thing ...

notimp · Mar 27, 2020

It is not. (You moron.)

Democracy now is well researched, and staffed, although with a focus on far left topics and pundits.

The format is my go to for a left to (/of) center left 'voice'.

I can tell you from how I use it for years now, that all I did to get 'relevant stuff' is to employ a filter for south american and activist topics (try to mostly listen over those), and it works wonderfully.

(Amy Goodman is so empathic to every interest on air (from "Thunberry" to native american interests, when pipelines are built) - that I couldnt endure watching without filtering at least some of that.)

Democracy now FREQUENTLY gets (interview) exclusives from the Washington Post to the NYT, interview guests like Jeffry D. Sachs (serves as special adviser to the United Nations (UN) Secretary-General António Guterres on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)), has all the relevant guests and analyses on individual and human rights causes...

Its basically THE place to look for stuff, that the NYT cant bring on the first page, because the public would freak.

And its used as such even by US institutions (interview guests), although about once every decade.

If you have no idea, shut the f*ck up. (Alex Jones my *ss)

On your china question. After you have those curfews, you have to get your populations working again ('play acting normality') without the virus gone yet.

Curfews are not there to 'beat corona virus' but to slow down rate of progression, so spread has to move on, and once you see it spiking again, you think about curfewing again.

But since those methods have such a high impact on economy. as a state - china or not, you lie your ass off - going out of a curfew. Will be similar in any other state on earth. China is just first.

Also, as you cant have the public freaking, when you do - you dont report numbers. What is there not to understand.

notimp · Mar 27, 2020

Just to drive the point home - Interview with US Congress member Rep. Omar, from about an hour ago:

You go there and watch for the 'original commentary' (interviews with people that want to go on the record). Thats also, why you screen smaller outlets. Because you dont find those at the biggest ones. (Because it would be the 'talk of the town' if everyone did it in the NYT, or the WP, or... You dont want that on every issue. Not in this case (Rep. couldnt get a spot in the NYT for what little she was adding to the public discourse), but in others.).

notimp · Mar 27, 2020

Why germany doesnt have a toilet paper shortage problem:

(We trust in intelligent people.

)

Ev1l0rd · Mar 27, 2020

wrt Democracy Now: https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/democracy-now/

MBF considers them firmly left, mainly based on their choice of coverage and their choice of headlines. Factually however, their reporting is sound.

Hanafuda · Mar 28, 2020

@DinohScene, why the censoring? Nothing I said was directed at anyone here on gbatemp, only expressing my (admittedly, very strong) feelings about Ilhan Omar. But people say those kind of things about President Trump here every day. Someone further up this same page called me a moron ... you didn't censor that.

Never mind, you don't have to answer.

notimp · Mar 28, 2020

That was a literal quote of what came out of his mouth on FOX.

No commentary made, by the news source. In fact they just added silence. The point of me adding *hysterical laughter* was not to influence anyones behavior in the next election (I dont even live in the US), but to break that god darn spell over some of you - that president can do no wrong (in Steve Jobs popular parlance: 'reality distortion field').

The guy is an absolute idiot. I didnt know 5% of it until I started looking. There is no general media reporting around the world on that recent stinger of his. If you have more reach than 'one guy on gbatemp' you tend to want to not to worry people in a situation like this.

Republicans are still fine. No one that didnt look closely saw it.

notimp · Mar 28, 2020

2 Trillion USD? Did you mean 6 Trillion USD?
https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/coronavirus-stimulus-package-to-exceed-6t-larry-kudlow-says/

This is the activist angle on it:
h**ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxJPFwo4fQI

notimp · Mar 28, 2020

Messaging for the US and Germany is very different. I'm confused.

According to Billy Boy - infection rate may be significantly lower, when people are infected, and show no symptoms (thats news to me), so using quarantine you may be able to limit contagion to only one percent of US population.

For how long? (Behavior modifications on people dont work so well over the long term. Also there is an end to summer eventually.)

According to this deathfigures from models vary quite extremely.

Conservative estimations of the entire death toll in the US currently range in the region of just 200.000 while 'we do nothing' leads to about 6mio dead. Imperial College London model with 2 mio dead is not taken too seriously currently by Gates.

What makes sense regardless is to have widespread testing capability, before you can decide if you go out of a quarantine phase.

notimp · Mar 28, 2020

Bodylanguage at 36:15 on prefabbed question of "how important is it for the worlds nations to collaborate right now" is FREAKY. Count me in with the conspiracy folks for a rough hour or so - but ok, on the left you see almost religious devotion, and on the right in Bills Face genuine happyness - almost giddiness, masked within a second?! *uh, let me take a sip*

What?

*sip*

Guys? Everything else ok?

notimp · Mar 28, 2020

Analogue to Climate change is opened up at 48 min into the video. (As of course it is, this is TED.)

Answer at least is differentiated. But then there is an edit point rather soon after.

edit: Short recap to follow.

Gates view on the situation in the US is as follows.

Measures should be able to contain the virus to only 1% of population being infected, at least if propagation slows down in the northern hemisphere due to warmer weather in summer. For a second wave in winter - Gates remains optimistic, that several treatment options are found for an effective combined treatment (different stages of infection), as vaccine development should still take about an additional year, resulting in the medical system in the US not getting overextended broadly (mostly big cities), and therefore mortality rates overall still falling below 1% in the US.

The entire thing will be over within 2-3 years (as more than half of the population gets infected).

Basically he is very optimistic on the capability to contain spread going out of curfews (because of low infaction rates when people arent showing symptoms(!)), if widespread testing is available to judge the correct timing. Very positive on the capability to find remedies quite soon, that would alleviate needs for respirator use, soon. And as a result very positive on expected outcome.

Southern hemisphere doesnt get a 'seasonal break', but has fewer elderly people demographics wise. *cringe*

So in his minds model US sticks at below 1% infection rate over the summer - after which other treatment options become available.

edit:

Yeah, Gates banks on a fact, that isnt a fact yet.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from asymptomatic individuals (or individuals within the incubation period) has also been described [23-27]. However, the extent to which this occurs remains unknown. Large-scale serologic screening may be able to provide a better sense of the scope of asymptomatic infections and inform epidemiologic analysis; several serologic tests for SARS-CoV-2 are under development [28].

https://www.uptodate.com/contents/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19?source=history_widget

notimp · Mar 28, 2020

Ok, this is kind of important...!

Chinese researchers had previously suggested asymptomatic people might transmit the virus but had not presented clear-cut evidence. “There’s no doubt after reading [the NEJM] paper that asymptomatic transmission is occurring,” Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told journalists. “This study lays the question to rest.”

But now, it turns out that information was wrong. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the German government’s public health agency, has written a letter to NEJM to set the record straight, even though it was not involved in the paper.

The letter in NEJM described a cluster of infections that began after a businesswoman from Shanghai visited a company near Munich on 20 and 21 January, where she had a meeting with the first of four people who later fell ill. Crucially, she wasn’t sick at the time: “During her stay, she had been well with no sign or symptoms of infection but had become ill on her flight back to China,” the authors wrote. “The fact that asymptomatic persons are potential sources of 2019-nCoV infection may warrant a reassessment of transmission dynamics of the current outbreak.”

But the researchers didn’t actually speak to the woman before they published the paper. The last author, Michael Hoelscher of the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich Medical Center, says the paper relied on information from the four other patients: “They told us that the patient from China did not appear to have any symptoms.” Afterward, however, RKI and the Health and Food Safety Authority of the state of Bavaria did talk to the Shanghai patient on the phone, and it turned out she did have symptoms while in Germany. According to people familiar with the call, she felt tired, suffered from muscle pain, and took paracetamol, a fever-lowering medication. (An RKI spokesperson would only confirm to Science that the woman had symptoms.)

src: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomatic-patient-transmitting-coronavirus-wrong

This, if true, is a deal breaker.

Makes telling people to self isolate much more viable.

Messaging in my local newspapers is still entirely different. As in not corrected.

Hoelscher was not on the call, he says. “I asked the Bavarian Health and Food Safety Authority whether the information from that phone conversation called for a correction and I was told that is not the case,” he says. (The Bavarian ministry of health, of which the agency is part, has not responded to a request for information from ScienceInsider.) But RKI disagreed. The agency’s spokesperson confirms that a letter about the error has been submitted to NEJM. RKI also informed the World Health Organization (WHO) and European partner agencies about the new information.

“I feel bad about how this went, but I don’t think anybody is at fault here,” says virologist Christian Drosten of the Charité University Hospital in Berlin, who did the lab work for the study and is one of its authors. “Apparently the woman could not be reached at first and people felt this had to be communicated quickly.”

The Public Health Agency of Sweden reacted less charitably. “The sources that claimed that the coronavirus would infect during the incubation period lack scientific support for this analysis in their articles,” says a document with frequently asked questions the agency posted on its website yesterday. “This applies, among other things, to an article in [NEJM] that has subsequently proven to contain major flaws and errors.” Even if the patient’s symptoms were unspecific, it wasn’t an asymptomatic infection, says Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Toronto. “Asymptomatic means no symptoms, zero. It means you feel fine. We have to be careful with our words.”

Hoelscher agrees that the paper should have been clearer about the origin of the information about the woman’s health. “If I was writing this today, I would phrase that differently,” he says. The need to share information as fast as possible, along with NEJM’s push to publish early, created a lot of pressure, he says.

The fact that the paper got it wrong doesn’t mean transmission from asymptomatic people doesn’t occur. Fauci, for one, still believes it does. "This evening I telephoned one of my colleagues in China who is a highly respected infectious diseases scientist and health official," he says. "He said that he is convinced that there is asymptomatic infection and that some asymptomatic people are transmitting infection." But even if they do, asymptomatic transmission likely plays a minor role in the epidemic overall, WHO says. People who cough or sneeze are more likely to spread the virus, the agency wrote in a situation report on Saturday. “More data may come out soon. We will just have to wait,” Lipsitch says.

edit: ECDC still disagrees on march 12th and states that fast pre-symptomatic spread was also inferred through modelling.

Transmission in pre-symptomatic stage of infection: In addition to case reports, pre-symptomatic transmission has been inferred through modelling, and the proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission was estimated to be around 48% and 62% [41]. Pre-symptomatic transmission was deemed likely based on a shorter serial interval of COVID-19 (4.0 to 4.6 days) than the mean incubation period (five days) with the authors indicating that many secondary transmissions would have already occurred at the time when symptomatic cases are detected and isolated [42]. Major uncertainties remain in assessing the influence of pre-symptomatic transmission on the overall transmission dynamics of the pandemic.

src: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/de...f-novel-coronavirus-disease-2019-COVID-19.pdf

Original source:
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30119-3/fulltext

In conclusion, we have estimated the median serial interval of COVID-19 at 4.0 days, which is close to or shorter than the disease’s median incubation period indicating that rapid cycles of transmission and substantial pre-symptomatic transmissions are occurring. Thus, containment via case isolation alone is likely to be very challenging.

Bill Gates might be out of his depth here..

edit: Or its political.

matias3ds · Mar 28, 2020

Here Air tv channels bomb with news 24/7 its the only they talked in tv .

notimp · Mar 28, 2020

Then dont watch TV.

notimp · Mar 31, 2020

Slowdown in transmission of COVID19 in summer only with an average temperature of above 25°C or maybe above 10g/m3 of humidity. (Not in the US, not in Europe.)

So effects would only show because of 'less people working indoors' but apparently are not significant (if not combined with other (social distancing) measures).

src:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3556998
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022467v1

notimp · Apr 1, 2020

US prison population is now payed to dig mass graves (with protection equipment).
src: h**ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVxkIOLhTf4

I think we should take the time to reflect the thread title at moments like these.
-

Death figure of 100-240.000 for the entirety of the US is the prediction for 'if all social distancing measures are employed long term'.

Death figure of 2.2 million (Imperial College London models) is "if no significant action is taken" (apparently ?, because thats news to me - 0.8% deathrate on US population is still 2.6 million... Just saying.).

Just for reference.

edit: In the video above a 'viral video' is referenced ("one nurse in madrid") in context of 'they are not testing [dead] people'. To put that somewhat into perspective - all deaths in hospital wards that have switched to attending to Covid patients structurally (as in overwhelmingly) currently are statistically counted as 'died of Covid19', in some regions of the world (I know of cases in italy and germany). So testing is not necessary there - for cases to show up in death numbers.
Just know that before going for the conspiracy angle..

The media is creating mass hysteria over the Coronavirus.

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