1. Boesy

    OP Boesy GBAtemp Advanced Fan
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    USD or GBP? I'm sort of in crossroads and I'd like to know which of the three is the most balanced currency from these three?

    I'd appreciate feedback from folks who know about this.

    P.S. I know about Bitcoin, but I'd want to use a currency that would be used daily in life.

    Regards.
     
  2. FAST6191

    FAST6191 Techromancer
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    What sort of timeline are we looking at? 5,10,20 and 50 all look rather different, to say nothing of technological conditions arising during those times (CNC, robotic assembly and 3d printing will likely combine with serious medicine to change the game rather). All are world players as well which can get tricky as the world economic situation will trouble them by various amounts (Russia, China**, India, Africa and to some extents south America all being in fairly critical periods that are make or break)

    All are going to be dealing with ageing and falling populations, especially among the natives, which is going to be an interesting one both in terms of lack of manpower/skills, and also when the old people in those (which hold a lot of the money that was generated post world war 2 though the 80s) die off over the coming years it will send massive shockwaves through things (most businesses not surviving the third generation and all that).

    US. It is the US, some may be pondering end of the empire type deals for it but still likely to last a decade or two even under the least favourable conditions. Oil is priced in it (despite what hippies think it is going to be around for a while yet, to say nothing of the US technically not being an importer these days), it is a technological and scientific research force. Or if you prefer see despite Europe and the UK being able to compete on a lot of levels there are few tech players to rival the excesses of the US and China.
    Political instability is boring, debt on the other hand (nation and state level -- see New Jersey and its impending collapse) is a more interesting one.

    UK. London at least is the money laundering capital of the world (see private banks and City of London, some might even claim London is the capital of the US financial industry) and is unlikely to change too terribly soon. Some look at Scotland and Northern Ireland and wonder what goes but frankly both of those are a net drain on the UK as a whole if money is the concern and not really a source of mineral wealth and its industry is pretty weak compared to Germany, Japan or similar size nations noted for high wages and high industry.
    Remains to be seen what will become of this leaving the EU lark (remains in the EU in all but name, cast adrift, cosies up to the former English speaking empire with the whole CANZUK thing, becomes a vassal state of the US, cosies up to Africa, cosies up to India, somehow cosies up to China or something else, most of those being somewhat mutually exclusive, will play out in rather different ways.
    Considerable wealth disparities within the country and thus long term stability is harder.
    Has some considerable technical and scientific ability as well as cultural output.

    EU. One of the largest and richest trading blocks on the planet, though not as unified as some of the others. Not so good on science and tech as the US but hardly lacking, and neither is culture. At the same time increased growth (in terms of members) may act as a drag on the individual economic power players of Germany and France (UK having since left, though will likely remain close by virtue of shared standards and geography)***. Also has a bit of a China problem with China owning a fair bit of interesting stuff within it, though so do the others.
    External issues, or internal ones caused by external, by dint of proximity to northern Africa and the middle east likely to be the biggest issues (if it happens as some think, see water wars for but one aspect, then the current issues with migration from there will be as nothing).

    None are likely to be considered bad places to park your money, and you can probably beat inflation in any of them with sound investments, probably even make a tidy return in some of them as there are rapidly rising parts of each of them* (though also falling parts of each of them). Which is the best is rather harder to say, and that is before you deal with difficulties in each of them (getting money in, taxes when there, getting money out quickly...) which can also vary depending upon your passport, residence and other bits of paper. If spending in everyday life is a thing that may also depend upon where you want to go.

    *Texas is on a bit of a rise with California's and New York's fall, as do several other places like Atlanta and some aspects of Florida.
    Eastern Europe if done well will probably also make for some massive gains
    UK wise will depend what happens over the coming years but if some economic development does happen of the northern towns then rate of return if you had invested today will likely be as insane as anything else mentioned in this, save perhaps Eastern Europe if that goes really well and they follow similar models to the likes of Poland and Hungary.

    **China is attempting to isolate India (its main rival in many ways), it is also somewhat cold with Russia (which seems to be playing a far longer game, though not without its own issues), its population is about to collapse thanks to one child policy (and that will take decades to recover from, if ever), internally its tax system is a nightmare, it is unlikely to do well with R&D, it is unlikely to be a world force for culture, environment and building standards are not good, internally the cost of living now outstrips a lot of wages in many places, internally it is not also the most cohesive. However if it manages to snatch key parts of Asia, Africa and Europe with its belt and road thing then that will far less matter than if it does not do it before the population collapse hits.

    ***plenty of rich countries in the EU but Germany and France are the main ones. Most others in at least Northern Europe might be rich on a per person basis (see something like the sovereign wealth fund of Norway, or stuff with Switzerland) but money to throw around is harder. If Greece, Spain or Italy go pop to various degrees (a distinct possibility) then it will drag things down.
     
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  3. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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    USD

    Question is: For how much longer. ;) And In relation to what? Gold? ;)

    USD basically, because its the entire worlds reserve currency. So there is constant demand from everyone.

    If the US decides to inflate the value of the USD - everyone in the world gets hit in relation to their USD reserves equally. But gold (f.e.) wouldnt so would raise in value. (People would flee into other currencies, being afraid of further devaluation).

    US inflating USD to a point where markets would lose trust is highly unlikely though. This is just to give you an idea about rough interplay/relations of 'storage of value' options.

    So essentially - if any country makes a huge base level economic 'mistake' (lets say as 'inferred by international markets'), its currency devalues, in relation to other currencies or something like gold. Except for the US, which has an asset buffer thats shared with pretty much all countries over the world - whose USD assets also get devalued.

    But, more money usually is printed to help economies over a 'liquidity crisis', so money (in a currency) is most 'valuable' at the point more of it is actually printed. So if you are investing - and you see an investment opportunity during a liquidity crisis, thats actually most valuable. Preferably shortly before many people see the same (because an economy is starting to grow again).

    Also, when liquidity is not an issue governments might start to tax money and thereby remove it from circulation, at which point it still might be worth a lot (bubble building), but you also need it to pay taxes.

    Most value stable asset arguably by now is real estate, but that is also vastly overpriced by now (and if you own the wrong one (large leisure time estates during Covid ;) ), also problematic - so knowing a thing about the asset class you are investing into is important as well.


    Also because of risk of taxation, and devaluation - what currency 'is best' to invest in varies over time. (You can check that by looking into 10 year government bond yields over time.)

    Also if the entire economy shifts more towards - f.e. china being a valuable trading partner, this also should impact your exchange rates, if you are Australia f.e..
    -

    Bitcoin is the least stable storage of value as its still driven by price manipulation (value literally oscillating), which every cryptocoin fanatic is preaching for years will stop, once more money is bound in those currencies (more players have a vested interest in it as a value store rather than an object of speculation).

    But then - its equally likely, that bitcoin is just 'discarded' as the next big thing in crypto arrives. ;)
    -

    So short answer is - for all matters of purpose, question is very hard to answer. It all depends on 'in relation to what', and in what time window?

    (Are people more afraid of a devaluation? Price of gold rises, ... Are people convinced, there is a growing market you can invest in, that currency that is requested then is pushed, while value of gold falls. Are people afraid of taxation or state bankruptcies, or devaluation of assets in a certain country - relative value of another (more stable at that time) currency might rise.)
    --

    edit:

    Didnt account for 'pegged exchangerates', and only partly for inflation. :)

    Quora users did:
    https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-most-stable-currency-in-the-world

    :)

    edit 2: Here is another set of opinions, from a different perspective:
    https://www.quora.com/What-currency-will-be-considered-most-stable-50-years-from-now

    (If quora asks you to sign in (free watch quota exceeded), simply delete cookies and reload.)

    On 'mercantilist' notions (second quora thread), read this:
    https://pluralistic.net/2020/11/05/gotta-be-a-pony-under-there/#jack-ma

    But I'm only linking to it, because I read it recently and it impressed me. (Challenged a couple of notions I had, made me think about things a little differently. ;) )
     
    Last edited by notimp, Nov 20, 2020 at 9:14 PM
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  4. Taleweaver

    Taleweaver Storywriter
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    To be honest, I'd go with none.

    British pound 's the easiest to predict : once brexit effects go in effect, that currency will go all over the place, at least in the short term. And this isn't a cheap shot at Johnson but simply a direct consequence of the uncertainty : it attracts the sorts of cowboys (venture capitalists) with lots of money and a will to basically gamble on the outcome.

    I don't like to gamble against my own currency, but I've got to put them in a second place. Why? One word : Stiglitz. Yeah... When a guy like that rips the European project apart, you don't just ignore it because it's bad news. I'm not smart enough to summarize his ideas (besides... It's been some years since I've read him), but I hope I can correctly say that we're not flexible enough to adapt. So... Sticks to be us, but the euro... Ehhh.

    The US as a country... If it goes to a new civil war, this will shoot up to number one in instability, but Trump is just too damn incompetent to pull it off (at this point he needs actions instead of words. But he's got nothing) . Once they've got an actual president, things will normalize a bit again. Could be they lose their evergreen trading currency to a second place (hellooooo China), but they'll certainly remain among the best choices.
     
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  5. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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    Last edited by notimp, Nov 20, 2020 at 10:07 PM
  6. jimbo13

    jimbo13 Sam Hyde did nothing wrong.
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    USD is going to crash under Biden, were headed for civil unrest and Biden is going to roll over and pull us out of oil production, attack the middle east and when that goes down Russia, China, Iran, OPEC, etc are all going to switch to the Petrol dollar. When Biden lets them switch oil sales out of USD were done.

    If you are trying to guard your savings/currency go with a hard asset, Silver > Gold it is easier to manage.
     
  7. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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    Holy something, you are brainwashed. If you are depressive and want to see the world end, at least dont leave the realm of reality. ;)

    Civil unrest - maybe, but that needs a catalyst (something that happens, that facebook can circulate, that stirs everyone emotionally, to the point they enact the outrage culture offline as well), I personally think that many identity politics activists just noticed what that gets them, if they focus on the worst in a human being, remain self centered, try to fight for small group identities, and then clash with economic certainties. Nothing with a toping of whipped cream from an aerosol can.

    No one is going to put you out of oil production cold turkey, because that would crash the economy at a rate thats not funny. Also last time I checked, only two of the G20 countries were very enthusiastic about 'green innovation': https://www.dw.com/en/will-saudi-arabia-derail-g20-climate-led-recovery/a-55672691

    An attack on the middle east was just prevented with a sidenote towards diplomatic fallout, even though Trump really, really wanted to. You already have the new powerstructures set in place, Iran in itself is not important enough to upset international trade, and potential allies are expected to drift more towards the new power centers in the region. If anything keep an eye out for structural revolts (pre failed states) in the region as certain business models dont pan out anymore. (The region loosing importance.) Which is a security problem the EU has to face (UK already raised its military budged by afair 25%), but probably will result in more corruption spending, if anything. Hot wars? Against whom - and why? Against a nuclear nation, shortly before it gets nuclear capability? To wipe it from the earth? Under Biden? With what public pretense?

    When the middle east is attacked - you have US military there - how would those countries switch to the 'Petrol Dollar' during that time? Why would Opec be interested in not supplying the entire world? Why would russia not want to deal with China and Europe? Why would anyone want to create a new currency for the oil trade - about 50 years before that stuff runs dry?

    China is tried its hardest to get trade infrastructures going, and is now mostly focused on the asia pacific region, with the rest on hold, because they have a production overcapacity and a need for growth (no easy financing anymore). Japan wants to trade out of the covid crisis like a man gagging for a drink.

    And even if for some strange reason your end of the world vision comes to fruition, what does the US care? The idea under Trump was always to retreat and 'forget' the rest of the world, and that in itself was never Trumps idea. Develop Mexico and india with tech from the 90s thats it. Heres your next 30 years. Do some 'space travel stunts' for people to not go crazy because of lack of perspective.

    When Biden lets them pay for oil not in USD anymore - US is done? Yeah. Correct. But how is 'US military is attacking the middle east' line up with that, which apparently is causing this in the first place? Hows that lining up with Saudi Arabia and Israel, coming together to dominate the region? Is Iran in their 15th year of sanctions leading the revolt?
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48119109

    Does Russia want to enable china to get Opec oil for cheaper? And loose its customers in the west?
    -

    The most important notion is - f*ck goldbugs. People that are brainwashed in a horror and terror tale future of the world burning, everything falling to pieces, and gold raising in value for a while, are being gamed by FUD grifters left and right.

    You can identify them - by them trying to sell you 'silver instead', which means, they are having their brains stired by people selling them purchase certificates on that stuff (easier to game than the gold market), which is a scam trade if there ever was one. (You get a pice of paper, that says someone ows you silver, hurray.)

    If you are mostly investing in those assets, you have decided to lie down and die, and want to wait on your profits, as the world ends.

    Honestly.

    Dont get counsel from people in a death cult.

    I mean if your vision of the future is "a new currency will be developed, that will replace the USD and then the US will collapse" - you are 90% on your way to the grave already - and not talking to people. Who are we kidding here.


    The only thing I'm actually wondering about is, how the heck you all ended up with 'Trump getting you out of this nightmare'? You wanted more marches in the streets and f*ck the world economy anyhow, why are you now so concerned with US as an international force in trade? Maybe because you requested more 'symbol politics' and for the rest to simply run somewhere out side your field of vision? Thats what you got with Biden as a lame duck also.

    Watch progressives and sunrisers die whilst crying. Maybe, maybe get some lighthouse projects in some part of the country, where they can build their own utopias. (I almost wrote safe spaces. ;) ) That should be balsam for your angry heart.
     
    Last edited by notimp, Nov 21, 2020 at 11:11 AM
  8. MeAndHax

    MeAndHax Impolite person with some modding knowledge.
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    :hrth:I like my Euro
     
  9. Boesy

    OP Boesy GBAtemp Advanced Fan
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    How does a cashless society sound to you?
     
  10. deSSy2724

    deSSy2724 GBAtemp Fan
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    http://www.goldtelegraph.com/fiat-currency-fails

    https://www.dinardirham.com/the-rise-and-fall-of-fiat-currencies/

    https://tokenhell.com/bitcoin-is-about-to-reach-half-of-the-fiat-currencys-average-life-span/

    Ond very interesting quote:
     
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  11. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
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    Mischaracterization

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m1
    https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/money-supply-m1

    US only recently raised moneysupply by quite a bit more than germany.

    Also money doesnt get devalued (inflation), if none of it is in circulation. Meaning, if your affluent class has skimmed it out of the economy, no inflation happens.

    edit: See: https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation/Money_Supply_and_Inflation.asp

    Hyperinflation would happen, when people would liquidize all those deposits at once. Which isnt happening.

    Also - to counter that from happening, government can always tax money out of existence. But currently you want innovation - probably with low ROI - which is why people are nudged to go into green investments? ;) (Dont know, guessing. Havent studied macro economics.)
     
    Last edited by notimp, Nov 22, 2020 at 1:19 AM
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  12. MeAndHax

    MeAndHax Impolite person with some modding knowledge.
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    Why would I honestly care?
    All these people whining about being controlled without cash money but honestly I don’t have any problem with that, the world has progressed and I’m always paying everything with my card or phone because it’s more convenient.
     
  13. Viri

    Viri GBAtemp Addict
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    Bolívar Soberano
     
  14. Taleweaver

    Taleweaver Storywriter
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    Sounds cheap to me. :creep::tpi:


    ... But serious : why this question? Truly cashless societies are possible within small communities where everyone knows and trusts each other, but doesn't scale even to the size of a city, let alone a country.
     
  15. catlover007

    catlover007 Developer
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    I think this was more a wink into the direction of conspiracies about the government surveilling every transaction (this is a deep rabit hole) and using it against people then about moneyless societies. Though I would like to be proven wrong.
     
  16. FAST6191

    FAST6191 Techromancer
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    Even if it were still small community 14th century (might have to go earlier still actually as The Hanseatic League was 12th century) then is it a world you want to live in? Your harmless deviances from social norms... ew he likes heavy metal.
     
  17. Boesy

    OP Boesy GBAtemp Advanced Fan
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    Supposedly it was a conspiracy, but the media eventually talked about it.



    I like using my debit/credit card to gain cashback on purchases although I'd never agree to go cashless. For my sake and others.
     
  18. FAST6191

    FAST6191 Techromancer
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    I must admit I do get some strange looks when trying to pay cash these days, even in supermarkets*. Did see a place explicitly stating no cash as well but it kind of made sense for what they were doing. That said I pretty much always get paid in cash and everybody I normally deal with is quite OK to also have cash so cash is king for me. Rewards systems for cards in the UK are basically nonexistent these days and the token warranty afforded by credit cards is worth less than them not having data on my purchasing habits to me (and I would quite happily give them my accounts if asked as I don't care).

    *they just handled all my groceries so if they were going to get in contact with my disgusting self...

    Granted I only use a card online and in cashpoints. There was also a tragic accident the other day when I was wandering around my room, my brand new bank card was just chilling on the anvil and the hammer and hole punch I had in each hand landed on the card when I tripped. Fortunately the chip was missed, the mag stripe was missed, the numbers on the back were missed, the numbers on the front were missed... and basically it was just the contactless pay antenna that got a hole put through it. Happened the time before as well.
     
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