I can see where your logic resides, but the clones have already thrown out the code containing the bricking mechanism, and have alerted their users of the dilemma. That's the reason we aren't seeing any brick reports from R4 users anymore. The only reason we're seeing threads like this one is because of the "fearmongering" you were talking about.
Deluxe Edition firmware 3.3b is released ! (2014-01-10)
change log:
1. Fixed the saving issue caused by V3.2
2. Fixed the breaking card issue caused by V3.2
3. Increase the stability
Attention: Multi-rom will be supported in Ver4.0
Also they have not made any sort of public announcement to warn their customers about the issue in order to protect them, probably I'm fear that it may affect their sales. The only place they are acknowledging the issue is in private emails and only if it is clear that the sender is already awRe of the issue to begin with.
Attention: Please don't use the firmware V3.0~V3.3 at the moment, which might cause a potential "blue screen" risk, we are still working on a solution for this critical issue, will fix it in the coming firmware V4.0(with mutiROM feature).
No, they don't. Probability does not work like that. You can flip a coin a billion times and have it land on heads, and that still has no bearing on the 50-50 chance of the next coin flip.
Right under the damn download link!
Man, that "article" you wrote is a good read, thanks for that.
That's weird. What site are you looking at? I'm looking At r4i news page here
I don't even know the purpose of that site, I've always used this one:
http://www.r4ids.cn/news.htm
Probably a backup or something, nothing I've used that's related to R4i ever referenced a ".us" address.
Aside from that, it seems that the site is just a copy for the r4ids.cn one except that it probably hasn't been updated as recently. This means that the admission of the bricking issue has probably only come out fairly recently and not immediately when the 3.3b software was released. It is commendable that they did eventually admit to the bricking issue to protect their users but does not really change the fact they were unwilling to do so at the start.
Actually, the news came out about a day after 3.3B was released, and the other downloads were taken down. The news date is time-stamped at the 10th, but I know for a fact that it was modified almost a day afterwards to give reason for the "update". That would put the age of the announcement at over a week old. Your definition of "recent" may be different than mine, but in relation to when this fiasco started, I'd say it's pretty old.
They really should do something about the clone site. It can easily cause a lot of confusion particularly since it looks just like the official one. Not to mention it could potentially be used to wreck significant harm if the owner eventually decides it is in his best interest to do so.
If the probability of no brick in a month is 95%, then the probability of no brick for every month in a year is 0.95 ^ 12 = about 54%. This makes the probability of a brick 100% - 54% = 46%. Do the math.
I don't see things the way you do.You are making it seem like the clones managed to isolate are remove the bricking code from their software.
They have not. All they did was take their oldest release and relabel it to make it appear like they are making progress instead of telling the truth that they have rolled back their software because of their inability to fix the problem.
You are right but you're wrong. Each individual time you make a try the probability will be the same as each other time, meaning you're right when you say past events doesn't influence future events and thus probability doesn't acummulate over time. But if you make many tries, the probability of one event happening at least once is higher the more tries you do it. Meaning it is not reasonable to suggest someone to use an unsafe firmware, specially if it isn't your 3ds in risk, I might add. I do agree that the methods of calcultion used by Jiro2 are unreliable though.Incorrect. No matter how many times you flip a coin, the odds will ALWAYS be 50-50. This bricking probability has nothing to do with time, and everything to do with pure, raw numbers. So far, the odds are 95% that you are safe. This will only change based upon the number of confirmed users with bricks as opposed to those without. The length of time has nothing to do with this whatsoever.
No matter what, your premise is faulty, either way. Probability law is that it doesn't matter how many times you run the odds; the previous "roll" doesn't change the outcome of the next one. Period.
If you toss a coin two times and want to get tails at least once, there are four possible results:That's like saying if you toss a coin and it lands on heads 10 times in a row, the odds are it will land on tails next! The odds/chances are exactly the same (in this analogy 50/50)
We're not looking at the probability of the flashcard bricking the 3ds after 12 months but over a course of 12 months in which there is a huge difference for in probability. It's like flipping a coin 3 times, the chances of flipping heads, tails, and heads is 12.5%. We get this because flipping a heads first is 50% then flipping tails second is 50% and then flipping tails third is 50%, so we multiply .5 by .5 by .5 which equals 0.125, or 12.5%. We only get this answer because the previous flip didn't effect the next one, so the odds for each flip is still 50-50. We're looking at a very specific outcome, just like flipping a coin once has a 50% chance for heads, which is what probability is, looking at what the chances of a specific outcome is. And yes the bricking possibility has everything to do with time as that is all there is to relate it too in which probability does allow.Incorrect. No matter how many times you flip a coin, the odds will ALWAYS be 50-50. This bricking probability has nothing to do with time, and everything to do with pure, raw numbers. So far, the odds are 95% that you are safe. This will only change based upon the number of confirmed users with bricks as opposed to those without. The length of time has nothing to do with this whatsoever.
No matter what, your premise is faulty, either way. Probability law is that it doesn't matter how many times you run the odds; the previous "roll" doesn't change the outcome of the next one. Period.
First, using the old firmware is the single most logic thing to do for now, their priority is to not get any more handhelds broken in this point. They could try to update the current firmware but it would require time not only to fix the problem but to actually test the firmware to ensure it is safe
I should add that 3dslink also has a similar warning: http://www.3dslink.com/download/Also they have not made any sort of public announcement to warn their customers about the issue in order to protect them as you have suggested, probably out of fear that it may affect their sales. The only place they are acknowledging the issue is in private emails and only if it is clear that the sender is already aware of the issue to begin with.