Why should I invest into cryptocurrencies?

notimp · Nov 30, 2020

tabzer said:
Banks aren't censorship resistant, and their use is stapled to whatever currency that you are using; which is likely to be inflationary. Bitcoin is like non-inflationary asset you can "store under the mattress" that you can transfer far away on a whim.

Yet noone seems to be using bitcoin as value storage, compared to the interest thats in it for value transfer, and speculation.

The truth is, if states clamp down on some of the bigger BC exchanges and start to seize assets, BC is sol. Have a value storage, thats not easily transformable into anything else, and its value tanks.

With gold, you have state held deposits. With banks you have them integrated highly into your commercial economies.

With BC, if it becomes too big, you block the IP address ranges of the 5 most active exchanges, as a bigger country - people will try to get their money out so quickly....

BC certainly is an interesting experiment. And in many senses, more than that by now, but does it have the capacity to grow into anything bigger, that still has structural importance is a harder question to answer.

Facebook almost messed this up royaly the first time around. They: "Yeah, we will be the worlds reserve currency, starting in february." "US Fed: "How about not".

Also at 1 mio+ investment volume at a bigger bank, you pay them to diversify.

They handle the risk, not you.

(Until you get bigger than HSBC f.e...

)

Scarface was "pretty spot on" in that regard (watch it again

) you bring money, they dont ask questions, they take on 'diversification risk'. If feds (or internationally FBI) shows up, you lost.

(They pay fine, and continue.)

tabzer · Nov 30, 2020

notimp said:
Yet noone seems to be using bitcoin as value storage, compared to the interest thats in it for value transfer, and speculation.

Can you elaborate on what you mean? Many people try to buy low sell high, if that's what you mean, but a long position has less risk.

notimp said:
The truth is, if states clamp down on some of the bigger BC exchanges and start to seize assets, BC is sol. Have a value storage, thats not easily transformable into anything else, and its value tanks.

Define easy. After Venezuala was in ruins, and its currency worthless, people started picking up bitcoin and other crypto to fill that void. Granted, it's terrible to have a worse case scenario to force a people to adopt a new form of stability. But you can barter crypto for goods an services without an exchange. It is like its own internet of money.

notimp said:
With BC, if it becomes too big, you block the IP address ranges of the 5 most active exchanges, as a bigger country - people will try to get their money out so quickly....

Yes, there is bottlenecking with both exchanges and the network itself when there are large swings in the landscape. Ignoring them helps me retain my position, and it always seems to come back stronger. The idea is that you should not let your speculation on price govern what the token means to you. Otherwise it's superficial and you will lose your position.

notimp said:
BC certainly is an interesting experiment. And in many senses, more than that by now, but does it have the capacity to grow into anything bigger, that still has structural importance is a harder question to answer.

By itself, it will be slow to change its own protocol because of the nature in its decentralization. As unappealing it is in this respect, it is just as much, if not more appealing, in the sense that it is reliably what it is. It's stable. Everything from 2nd layer approaches to the point of social contracts are establishing themselves around it. An example is the lightning network, which is like a node system that allows independent nodes to handle multiple inputs/outputs, then submit a settlement as a single transaction whenever it deems fit. That is a bridge that can reach into so many social contracts, with varying degrees of trust and redundancy. For example, if Paypal wanted people to manage their own wallets, they can be a node for all the transactions between them for a year, only to submit one request to the blockchain as a single settlement. The amount of overhead/fees that are reduced in this prospect is really f*king amazing.

notimp said:
Facebook almost messed this up royaly the first time around. They: "Yeah, we will be the worlds reserve currency, starting in february." "US Fed: "How about not".

Because it is centralized, and they are trying to own the cryptocurrency they are advertising. It makes it a security. Bitcoin has no president. Just "influencers" which can't seem to do a whole lot ever since the protocol was established. Either 51% of the network agrees on the change, or it isn't happening. Facebook can change the TOS and take your Libracoin from under your pillow.

notimp said:
Also at 1 mio+ investment volume at a bigger bank, you pay them to diversify. They handle the risk, not you. (Until you get bigger than HSBC f.e... )

I believe you alluded, before, that the bigger the risk, the bigger the potential payout. It is true that many people don't want to be so directly in control of their money where they take on the risk of impulse and bad investments. There are varying degrees of approaches that can mitigate the risk, as well as the potential reward. To each their own.

notimp said:
Scarface was "pretty spot on" in that regard (watch it again ) you bring money, they dont ask questions, they take on 'diversification risk'. If feds (or internationally FBI) shows up, you lost. (They pay fine, and continue.)

As many shows/movies I have on my backlog, that's always one I could always make time for.

notimp · Nov 30, 2020

tabzer said:
Can you elaborate on what you mean? Many people try to buy low sell high, if that's what you mean, but a long position has less risk.

Market cap. 200 billion is not that much. If you talk about value storage.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/377382/bitcoin-market-capitalization/
Gold is at 9 trillion.

And nobody is into gold these days..

With 'value store' you are not talking 'half of one countries yearly budget" - you are talking 200 years of a countries yearly budget sums.

US likes bitcoin, if it brings value into the country. But no one (other than the people doing the pump and dump, and managing small investor collectives) quite stays in there. For what? To 'almost reach the values you reached last year'? You buy low, you sell high, in the time in between you are market making.

Getting brokers like paypal in, means - that it becomes more socially accepted. For big investments, thats more or less 'added security' (consumer facing its more PR), as in people are starting to talk to people, networks are created, and so on. No one wants to shut something down as long as it works (as in brings in private investment money from China f.e.).

But thats not so much because of a 'resilience' in BC over state regulation. I think thats mostly a story.

tabzer · Nov 30, 2020

BC's resilience and neutrality earned the current state regulation, imo. You aren't completely wrong about what you said. Bitcoin is still smaller than gold, but you are more likely to get fake gold than you are to get a fake bitcoin--assuming you were equally educated in both.

notimp said:
US likes bitcoin, if it brings value into the country. But no one (other than the people doing the pump and dump, and managing small investor collectives) quite stays in there. For what? To 'almost reach the values you reached last year'? You buy low, you sell high, in the time in between you are market making.

They keep revisiting and more so when the see that the trend doesn't dissipate. If you want to disparage bitcoin because it is finally reaching last year's high, it means you do not think it can break out again. I think it can, and it will be sooner or later. You are arguing for a short position. I don't relate to that.

I think if Biden assumes office, we will see a burst. If we see Harris assume office, we will see a small burst and settle higher than ATH, but not as much. If we see Trump again, we will face more resistance but eventually it'll break the ATH and carry on slowly after that.

Deleted member 668561 · Nov 30, 2020

Bladexdsl said:
your a fool if you do and your encouraging assholes miners PLUS jacking up video card prices

buy a good card, use it to mine when not doing anything else otherwise, i consider it an "unlimited rebate", that decreases with time and age of hardware (miner/difficulty),

if you're like me, you'd get an ups connected to a solar panel = free money

notimp · Dec 1, 2020

aadz93 said:
buy a good card, use it to mine when not doing anything else otherwise, i consider it an "unlimited rebate", that decreases with time and age of hardware (miner/difficulty),

Yeah, dont forget to calculate in electricity cost. Which made mining on consumer hardware entirely useless, in most western countries - for _any_ of the established currencies. (?)

*The moment you realize that even your drop dead crazy "value hardware" video blogger, that posts videos from thrift stores in Australia tells you that he uses custom mining hardware (silicon), when mining his digital currency, you've never even heard of.* Which he then only sells, when the exchangerates are good.
#techyescity #loveitunironically

There is a difference between doing something entirely mad, and believing it will work, because it actually has an interesting and novel aspect to it.

And -

doing the same thing for the 200th time on the next altcoin coming along, pegged to bitcoin in value - believing, that lightning will strike twice.

edit: Profitibility analysis:

at 4:20 in.

Also that guy - is selling you bullsh*t for most of the video. Just as a reminder, that youtubers - in general - make money from people buying into commercial ecosystems.

Deleted member 668561 · Dec 1, 2020

notimp said:
Yeah, dont forget to calculate in electricity cost. Which made mining on consumer hardware entirely useless, in most western countries - for _any_ of the established currencies. (?)

*The moment you realize that even your drop dead crazy *value hardware* video blogger, that posts videos from thrift stores in Australia tells you that he uses custom mining hardware (silicon), when mining his digital currency, you've never even heard of.* Which he then only sells, when the exchangerates are good.
#techyescity #loveitunironically

There is a difference between doing something entirely mad, and believing it will work, because it actually has an interesting and novel aspect to it.

And -

doing the same thing for the 200th time on the next altcoin coming along, pegged to bitcoin in value - believing, that lightning will strike twice.

what electricity costs? where i live solar power is feasible pretty much all year...., using an ups + solar panels, i can also go futher and replace the psu and use pico atx psu's and run straight from the 12v without needing any inverter: https://ebay.to/2HVfRjv

Jayro · Dec 1, 2020

Their prices keep skyrocketing, so why not?

notimp · Dec 1, 2020

aadz93 said:
what electricity costs? where i live solar power is feasible pretty much all year...., using an ups + solar panels, i can also go futher and replace the psu and use pico atx psu's and run straight from the 12v without needing any inverter: https://ebay.to/2HVfRjv

Just looked up profitibility charts for coins you never heard of, because you sold people on an idea ("just do it!"), and never bothered to. edited it into the previous posting.

Jayro said:
Their prices keep skyrocketing, so why not?

Their prices also keep pludering down, and then never reaching inital highs for another three years. Idiot. I hate it, when hypers try to spend other peoples money.
-----

So now you get people to buy solar panels, living in NY city, generating 300W? Buying them for 500USD a pop. Together with a picopsu (specialized hardware). To "mine". Which will net them 3 USD per day. On a 3080. Power costs (or solar panel acquisition costs) not included.

With the promise, that if they rope in more unknowing morons, maybe the value of the currency they are currently mining, might spike. Because of NO STRUCTURAL REASON WHATSOEVER.

I remind you, that the best reason we could come up with in this three pages, for why bitcoin value should rise further was 'commercial networks and the PR value they provide'.

Also please show me your solar panel rig, that produces 300W.

Deleted member 668561 · Dec 1, 2020

notimp said:
Just looked up profitibility charts for coins you never heard of, because you sold people on an idea ("just do it!"), and never bothered to.

Their prices also keep pludering down, and then never reaching inital highs for another three years. Idiot. I hate it, when hypers try to spend other peoples money.

all i care about is btc and xmr......

notimp · Dec 1, 2020

aadz93 said:
all i care about is btc and xmr......

So what you are saying is, that on a 3080 you are gaining value of 1 USD a day?

Now thats something, other people should choose as their hobby.

Upfront costs:
- 3080 (partly subsidized by also playing on it, and resell value)
- PicoPSU (with a 3080?)
- Solar Panels (for about 300W sustained)

Deleted member 668561 · Dec 1, 2020

the pc in my sig generates about $3 a day using both cpu and gpu to mine, use the solar panels to charge some spare deep cycle marine batteries i had, currently it runs through a 120v inverter, though using pico psu should be possible if really want to be efficient , IF they actually can handle 400W

notimp · Dec 1, 2020

If you'd actually wanted to be efficient?

So you bought so many solar panels, that you didnt even need the pico PSU, which you then didnt use, but mentioned?

Also I dont see a PC in your signature.

And what are you smoking?

src: https://jblevins.org/btcmpc/

I changed hashrate to 0.086 Gh/s (== 3080 performance, see: https://whattomine.com/gpus ) cost to 700 (price of a 3080 if in stock), and power usage to 300w. Profit over a year came out to -1,094.20 USD

At 0.0 USD cost per kWh (USD), profit over a year came out to -700 USD, btw.

tabzer · Dec 1, 2020

Staking is a better alternative to mining, PoS (Proof of Stake), imo. Tezos, which is something I have staked is returning about 6-7% apr (in terms of the token). Like all crypto, the fiat price point is unreliable. At least you don't have to have hardware running to do it. There is usually a grace period before it kicks in, but it compounds itself which is interesting. The use case of it is even more scrutinized than bitcoin, but cryptos these days are getting easier to swap via centralized and decentralized exchanges. I don't know if Tezos is likely to increase in price like BTC is, since it's an altcoin. Holding BTC seems like the least risky option. Still not without risk. It is gambling. The higher the risk the greater the potential reward or loss.

notimp · Dec 1, 2020

tabzer said:
Staking is a better alternative to mining, PoS (Proof of Stake), imo. Tezos, which is something I have staked is returning about 6-7% apr (in terms of the token). Like all crypto, the fiat price point is unreliable. At least you don't have to have hardware running to do it. There is usually a grace period before it kicks in, but it compounds itself which is interesting. The use case of it is even more scrutinized than bitcoin, but cryptos these days are getting easier to swap via centralized and decentralized exchanges. I don't know if Tezos is likely to increase in price like BTC is, since it's an altcoin. Holding BTC seems like the least risky option. Still not without risk. It is gambling. The higher the risk the greater the potential reward or loss.

Ah tabzer is now moving people into the gigworking space (all you are worth is what the network tells you, based on your assessed means), now thats the spirit..

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/proof-stake-pos.asp

Well - at least for the time they are setting up their cards to 'work' for them.

Imagine you are mining for gold. But the chance of finding it is not '(weighted) random', but determined by how much money you invested in equipment. Pretty much exclusively.

That said, chance of mining 'gold' in the proof of work model now is exclusively determined by how cheaply you can pool people with equipment in ressource pools, whilst having them pay for the privilege.

Deleted member 668561 · Dec 1, 2020

notimp said:
If you'd actually wanted to be efficient?

So you bought so many solar panels, that you didnt even need the pico PSU, which you then didnt use, but mentioned?

Also I dont see a PC in your signature.

And what are you smoking?

src: https://jblevins.org/btcmpc/

I changed hashrate to 0.086 Gh/s (== 3080 performance, see: https://whattomine.com/gpus ) cost to 700 (price of a 3080 if in stock), and power usage to 300w. Profit over a year came out to -1,094.20 USD

At 0.0 USD cost per kWh (USD), profit over a year came out to -700 USD, btw.

two solar panels @24v, which is down-regulated to 12DC, this charges the batteries, 4 deep cycle marine batteries, then this is converted to 120v via an inverter, i can remove the inverter and use multiple pico atx in parallel, reduces losses from the inverter

i can run two desktops and easily get $5-10 a day ( two gpu's, per desktop, and mining xmr on the cpu, which i would move to amd)

even then where i live electricity is cheap, way less than 15 cents a kilowatt

using solar i don't even pay that, all i pay is the cost of the hardware itself, and internet, let it mine long enough, that cost will be refunded

and i use my gpu to mine kawpow, which is then converted to btc, i make about a 1.25 a day or so just by the gpu alone, the cpu makes about 50-80 cents a day, but its old anyway

its just experiment in the end, in the end ain't gonna change my mind,

once i'm done, have a bunch of gaming desktops i can sell aswell.....

tabzer · Dec 1, 2020

notimp said:
Ah tabzer is now moving people into the gigworking space (all you are worth is what the network tells you, based on your assessed means), now thats the spirit..
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/proof-stake-pos.asp

Can you reword that in a way that I can understand what you are saying? PoS is an alternative to PoW which doesn't require the bulk of the hardware and electricity to sustain it. With all currencies, the more you have, the more you are worth. That is the concept of "wealth".

notimp · Dec 1, 2020

tabzer said:
Can you reword that in a way that I can understand what you are saying? PoS is an alternative to PoW which doesn't require the bulk of the hardware and electricity to sustain it. With all currencies, the more you have, the more you are worth. That is the concept of "wealth".

No, the more you have the more you are likely to gain in the future. But without any element of chance, or 'circumstantial chance', or structural risk possible.

As in ever possible. From the first minute on the system is crafted.

Its as if someone looked at BTC and said, we dont like the romanticism, of someone finding 'gold' by chance, we think mining should be owned by the early big investors from here to eternity. The more you have, the more you gain. And this should prevent you from going against the system at 51% ownership of miners. We give you the full path to monopoly - from the first second on - without any of the romanticism, of also having chance in there.

We dont detest 51% ownership of verification, we long for it happening.

When starting such a currency you are basically drawing in the big players (in the field) at the start, and then fucking over all newcomers for eternity.

This has nothing to do with the 'decentralized' 'we reward neckbeards' model.

But then arguably no crypto currency after BTC (that will ever be of any importance) does. Which might be another unique selling point for BTC. It was the max divested one in the beginning. It became centralized, when professionals took over.

With Proof of stake, its licking the big players balls from the beginning. (How fast is the development rate on custom silicon?)

If thats the case (and everyone is trying to pull the big players in in the beginning, and then giving them advantage for life) - Cryptocurrency that doesnt lend itself well for custom silicon mining, would play a more and more diminishing role compared to all others. Do you know - is that the case?

For the single miner - this essentially means he opens up app. He gets their rate. He mines. He never gets a leg up. He never gets a raise. He never gets to compete. Distribution of 'stake' is decided in the beginning - especially with 'luring big players in' in mind. You give them a guarantee, that the only thing that matters is - what they have put in, and that they stay loyal.

But again, I dont think, that this is so much different with PoW (as it looks currently) either.

So lets see Cryptocoins as a scheme to draw in big investment in the beginning, and then perpetually draw in more and more suckers. Tell them what they are creating is the new gold - because its good for not much else. Endgame pump and dump.

And shed all the illusions of even roughly 'equal chance' in the beginning, just for a mere promise, that verification scales better in the end, and you are the currency that can become a widespread payment solution.

You know - facebook has it right.

Just sidestep that. Just say in the beginning, these are the 25 companies that will matter. Peg it to USD, so you solve the hyper inflation (and the price stability) issue. (But to allow to modify 'what it is' - in circulation.) Then do what you want, and be more competitive on every front.

edit: Basically this: https://old.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/6d1mca/proof_of_stake_leads_to_centralization_with_worse/

tabzer · Dec 2, 2020

@notimp

The problem with your analysis on PoW vs PoS regarding dominance of the network overlooks a key component. The perceived decentralization of a network is considered a strength. People get wary and confidence is lost when any actor or pool approaches %51. This applies for any cryptocurrency, but PoS is definitely harder to verify. %51 is not a goal for anybody, other than those who want to push an upgrade/change into the system. Changes perceived as nefarious will cause the crypto to drop in value. You are using very old sources that still bear relevence, yet are not up to date.

Also, with PoS, there is no hardware or electricity investment to consider. You can stake a token and not look at it ever again.

notimp said:
When starting such a currency you are basically drawing in the big players (in the field) at the start, and then fucking over all newcomers for eternity.

This is false. Big players draw in huge waves of instability. Even so, they still want to make a profit. It's is not an interest to to make that a negative value. What you are describing as "fucking over all newcomers" isn't a true assessment.

notimp said:
So lets see Cryptocoins as a scheme to draw in big investment in the beginning, and then perpetually draw in more and more suckers. Tell them what they are creating is the new gold - because its good for not much else. Endgame pump and dump.

End game: pump and dump, and pump and dump eternally, to the point that the ability to do so just diminishes into stability.

I get that you are trying to paint this as a pyramid scheme. But a big player's exit is an opportunity for the rest of the network. It's continuously recycled.

As for Libra? I don't really see what it offers for people in the way you are pitching it. How is it so different from rewards programs, and mileage programs, other than just connecting different companies on the same program?

wonkeytonk · Dec 2, 2020

I think the future is headed towards DeFi currencies; namely Chainlink.
I don't trust Bitcoin and other centralized currencies; there are also some allegations claiming that BTC is owned by China and that people are trying to hide that fact. So I think Bitcoin might be designed to fall at times when the media convinces everyone to buy it.
DeFi altcoins are better.

Real estate is definitely not as good to trade with because of all the people this year who couldn't pay rent.

Why should I invest into cryptocurrencies?

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