Effects on the banking sector, monetary policy and financial stability
The introduction of a digital euro could affect the transmission of monetary policy and have a negative impact on financial stability, for example by challenging banks’ intermediation capacity and by affecting risk-free interest rates. Depending on its characteristics as a form of investment, it might induce depositors to transform their commercial bank deposits into central bank liabilities. This might increase the funding costs of banks and, as a consequence, interest rates on bank loans, potentially curtailing the volume of bank credit to the economy. Banks could react to this trend in different ways. One possibility would be to try to stabilise deposits by increasing their remuneration or by bundling them with additional services (for example, payment services, mortgages, etc.). Second – unless the central bank increases its outright holdings of securities, thus increasing the supply of liquidity on a permanent basis – banks could replace lost deposit funding with central bank borrowing, provided that they have adequate collateral (in terms of both quality and quantity). This would imply an increase in demand for collateral, which might ultimately have an impact on market interest rates for safe assets; moreover, the central bank would expand its role in the economy and its risk exposure. Finally, to the extent that the central bank increases its outright holdings of securities, banks could still try to substitute deposit funding with more expensive capital market-based funding. Substantial demand for digital euro may also have a negative impact on financial stability, given the key role of the banking sector in financial intermediation. Were this demand to increase their funding costs, banks might have to deleverage and decrease the supply of credit, thus preventing an optimal level of aggregate investment and consumption. If this process ultimately implies higher costs for borrowers, economic activity could be hampered. Moreover, if their traditional business model is compromised, banks may decide to take on greater risks in an attempt to earn higher (nominal) returns and to offset the reduction in profitability.32 Additionally, if banks decrease their role in deposit-taking and intervene less in the routing of payment instructions, they might have less information about clients, which, in turn, would harm their risk assessment capacity. This may increase the riskiness of banks’ balance sheets, with negative effects on financial stability. Furthermore, investors may substitute safe assets (for example, sovereign bonds) with the digital euro, which would directly affect risk-free interest rates and indirectly affect other risk classes.33 In crisis situations, when savers have less confidence in the whole banking sector, liquid assets might be shifted very rapidly from commercial bank deposits to the digital euro if the operational obstacles to withdrawing money in the form of digital euro are lower than for withdrawing cash. This could increase the likelihood and severity of bank runs, weakening financial stability. These examples highlight that the design of the digital euro needs to be carefully assessed, taking into account its implications for such important issues as monetary policy transmission and financial stability. Consideration should be given, inter alia, to whether a digital euro should be accessible by households and firms directly or indirectly through intermediaries, whether it would be remunerated, and whether digital euro holdings of individual users should be limited or unlimited. For instance, the central bank might mitigate potential effects on the banking sector, financial stability and the transmission of monetary policy by remunerating digital euro holdings at a variable rate over time,34 possibly using a tiered remuneration system, or by limiting the quantity of digital euro that users can hold and/or transact.