on the more factual side of things, fivethrityeight put out some info about what effect the last debate had on the race so far. spoilers: not much. positive numbers for Biden, negative numbers for trump. so -9 means trump leads by 9%.
collecting the 37 polls from around 10/22 to now.
October surprises generally don't have a huge effect (2016 being the exception), and we can see that reflected here.
with an aggregate lead of 9.1%, Biden would need to drop 1% per day or more, every day from today, until Nov 3rd to be within the margin of error. well, actually it needs to be more than that because people are voting day by day instead of all on the 3rd.
collecting the 37 polls from around 10/22 to now.
October surprises generally don't have a huge effect (2016 being the exception), and we can see that reflected here.
with an aggregate lead of 9.1%, Biden would need to drop 1% per day or more, every day from today, until Nov 3rd to be within the margin of error. well, actually it needs to be more than that because people are voting day by day instead of all on the 3rd.
Last edited by omgcat,