[POLL] 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

[LumInvader]

LOL, you re-reinforced what I have been saying.

“We also know that even the best polling can be wrong, and that variables like turnout mean that in a number of critical states we are functionally tied — and that we need to campaign like we’re trailing.”

Which even with Foxes editorial adjustments, still means the SAME EXACT THING.

If they are wrong, they are obviously NOT accurate.

The FACT I stated is still correct.

The campaign manager said that the polls could be wrong. Which AGAIN has been my point since this started with you.

You tired of going in circles yet?

Several problems. First, Biden's campaign manager never said "the [polls] are wrong." She said that they "CAN BE WRONG."

Citation:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bi...cency-in-memo-donald-trump-can-still-win-this

She did not say that they were inaccurate beyond the standard margin of error. She was also referring to state polling, which has a larger aggregate sampling error than national polling. Biden's +10 point national polling lead would have to drop considerably by election day for the margin of error to become a concern. Hence, her complacency comment.

Your "point" is no different today than from one week ago when you linked us to a strawman argument with the headline: Fake-Poll Alert: Proof Biden Is Not Winning, which I refuted [here]. Your primary goal is to invalidate national polling data because it shows Biden with a 10 point lead. Today you cited betting odds as evidence Biden's "campaign is crashing." If the shoe were on the other foot, I have no doubt you'd be using national polls to illustrate Trump's support over Biden, as you've demonstrated that you'll go to whatever shameful length necessary to support your "FACTS."

 

[Jonna]

Why was this topic recommended to me on GBATemp?

also lol i'm contributing to rigging the poll with my vote despite being Canadian

 

[crimpshrine]

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/the-pollster-who-thinks-trump-is-ahead/

The Pollster Who Thinks Trump Is Ahead

Not the whole article. But I personally believe very valid points and I am sure a few of you would never consider.

If you are a firm believer only in polling averages, this isn’t particularly meaningful, but if you are familiar with Trafalgar’s successes in 2016, when (unlike other pollsters) it had Trump leading in Michigan and Pennsylvania and, in 2018, Ron DeSantis winning his gubernatorial race, it is notable. Regardless, it’s worth knowing why one pollster is departing from nearly everyone else.

Much of Trafalgar’s approach focuses on accounting for the so-called social-desirability bias. As Cahaly puts it, that’s when a respondent gives you “an answer that is designed to make the person asking the question be less judgmental of the person who answers it.” Cahaly notes that this phenomenon showed up as long ago as the 1980s, in the so-called Bradley effect, when the African-American mayor of Los Angeles, Tom Bradley, underperformed his polling in a gubernatorial race. It has been a hallmark of the Trump era and is one reason other pollsters missed the impending victory of Ron DeSantis over Andrew Gillum in the 2018 Florida gubernatorial race.

This goes back to the social-desirability bias. People with opinions that are unpopular “don’t want to be judged by somebody on the phone that they don’t know.” If this was always true, it’s particularly so now: “They’ve seen all this stuff of people being shamed for their opinion, people losing their jobs.”

Overall, Cahaly sees another Trump win. “If it all happened right now,” he maintains, “my best guess would be an Electoral College victory in the high to 270s, low 280s.”

Whether you believe it or not I think a large percent believe people on the left are intolerant and crazy. Anyone in the middle does not want to be associated with those that riot and say racist things to others of color because they don't agree with them. Get canceled because you are related to someone that said something the mob does not like. Freak out and say you are a racist when you say you do believe that all lives matter. Etc, I could go on and on.

And I believe there are MANY that are in the middle of the road that fall into this.

 

[crimpshrine]

Several problems. First, Biden's campaign manager never said "the [polls] are wrong." She said that they "CAN BE WRONG."

Citation:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bi...cency-in-memo-donald-trump-can-still-win-this

She did not say that they were inaccurate beyond the standard margin of error. She was also referring to state polling, which has a larger aggregate sampling error than national polling. Biden's +10 point national polling lead would have to drop considerably by election day for the margin of error to become a concern. Hence, her complacency comment.

Your "point" is no different today than from one week ago when you linked us to a strawman argument with the headline: Fake-Poll Alert: Proof Biden Is Not Winning, which I refuted [here]. Your primary goal is to invalidate national polling data because it shows Biden with a 10 point lead. Today you cited betting odds as evidence Biden's "campaign is crashing." If the shoe were on the other foot, I have no doubt you'd be using national polls to illustrate Trump's support over Biden, as you've demonstrated that you'll go to whatever shameful length necessary to support your "FACTS."

I am not going to go in circles anymore with you on this Luma, you were wrong.


Here is the original post you started responding to:

“We also know that even the best polling can be wrong, and that variables like turnout mean that in a number of critical states we are functionally tied — and that we need to campaign like we’re trailing.”

What I quoted from the Fox article is represented clearly in the actual text she sent in her memo right above this.

You adding other stuff into the equation changes nothing about my point I was making that started you on this.

 

[LumInvader]

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/the-pollster-who-thinks-trump-is-ahead/

The Pollster Who Thinks Trump Is Ahead

Not the whole article. But I personally believe very valid points and I am sure a few of you would never consider.



Whether you believe it or not I think a large percent believe people on the left are intolerant and crazy. Anyone in the middle does not want to be associated with those that riot and say racist things to others of color because they don't agree with them. Get canceled because you are related to someone that said something the mob does not like. Freak out and say you are a racist when you say you do believe that all lives matter. Etc, I could go on and on.

And I believe there are MANY that are in the middle of the road that fall into this.

If you're going to cherry pick polls, I'm gonna go with the highest ranked pollster in 2016: Monmouth University, which carries an A+ rating at fivethirtyeight.com (Trafalgar Group has a C-).

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-pollsters-to-trust-in-2018/

According to Monmouth University:

• Biden +3 in North Carolina
• Biden +12 in Pennsylvania
• Biden +6 in Arizona

There is no probable scenario where Trump wins without winning all 3 states:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

 

[Deleted User]

wow 108 pages

 

[crimpshrine]

If you're going to cherry pick polls, I'm gonna go with the highest ranked pollster in 2016: Monmouth University, which carries an A+ rating at fivethirtyeight.com (Trafalgar Group has a C-).

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-pollsters-to-trust-in-2018/

According to Monmouth University:

• Biden +3 in North Carolina
• Biden +12 in Pennsylvania
• Biden +6 in Arizona

There is no probable scenario where Trump wins without winning all 3 states:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

I think you are missing the point of that post I made.

1. Trafalgar’s successes in 2016 in predicting.
2. Reasons behind their thought process.

I don't care about all the other polls. And we will soon see how accurate those polls really were.

 

[UltraSUPRA]

To anyone saying that you can get your freedoms back: https://www.deseret.com/u-s-world/2...navirus-back-to-normal-bias-pandemic-covid-19

 

[Deleted User]

To anyone saying that you can get your freedoms back: https://www.deseret.com/u-s-world/2...navirus-back-to-normal-bias-pandemic-covid-19

the voice of doom has spoken

 

[LumInvader]

I think you are missing the point of that post I made.

1. Trafalgar’s successes in 2016 in predicting.
2. Reasons behind their thought process.

I don't care about all the other polls. And we will soon see how accurate those polls really were.

What about Monmouth University? They were more accurate than Trafalgar in "predicting" in 2016. Don't write them off just because they have Trump trailing far behind Biden. Don't be such a picky cherry picker!

 

[crimpshrine]

What about Monmouth University? They were more accurate than Trafalgar in "predicting" in 2016. Don't write them off just because they have Trump trailing far behind Biden. Don't be such a picky cherry picker!

I am not specifically trying to be. I thought that article I posted is pretty specific on item #2 I listed above. I personally believe it is a major factor this election year.

As I said previously we will soon see how accurate everyone was. Not long now.

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To anyone saying that you can get your freedoms back: https://www.deseret.com/u-s-world/2...navirus-back-to-normal-bias-pandemic-covid-19

Your article made me think of a quote I read from Governor Gretchen Whitmer of MI today.

Supposedly from Sunday’s broadcast of NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

She continued, “The Trump virus response is the worst in the globe. In the world, it’s the worst. 8 million people have been — have contracted COVID-19, 220,000 dead. We’ve got people in food pantry lines who never would have imagined that they would be there. And no light on the horizon because our numbers keep going up. This is a grave, serious moment for all of us. If you’re tired of lockdowns or tired of wearing masks or you wish you were in church this morning or watching college football or your kids were in-person instruction, it’s time for change in this country. That’s why we’ve got to elect Joe Biden.”


I had to laugh at that one. She is a moron.

 

[omgcat]

I am not specifically trying to be. I thought that article I posted is pretty specific on item #2 I listed above. I personally believe it is a major factor this election year.

As I said previously we will soon see how accurate everyone was. Not long now.

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------



Your article made me think of a quote I read from Governor Gretchen Whitmer of MI today.

Supposedly from Sunday’s broadcast of NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

She continued, “The Trump virus response is the worst in the globe. In the world, it’s the worst. 8 million people have been — have contracted COVID-19, 220,000 dead. We’ve got people in food pantry lines who never would have imagined that they would be there. And no light on the horizon because our numbers keep going up. This is a grave, serious moment for all of us. If you’re tired of lockdowns or tired of wearing masks or you wish you were in church this morning or watching college football or your kids were in-person instruction, it’s time for change in this country. That’s why we’ve got to elect Joe Biden.”


I had to laugh at that one. She is a moron.

except she's not. if people wore the damn masks, and followed instructions, we'd be in the same boat as NZ, you know, no cases. not 20+% of deaths with 5% of the population.

 

[LumInvader]

I am not specifically trying to be. I thought that article I posted is pretty specific on item #2 I listed above. I personally believe it is a major factor this election year.

As I said previously we will soon see how accurate everyone was. Not long now.

Trafalgar's polls lean right historically. I would posit that much of their success in the 2016 General Election is a byproduct of that. Trafalgar picks conservative; Conservative wins election. Their methodology hasn't granted them an accuracy advantage over other pollsters -- they've called only 75% of their races correctly across 48 polls, which is below average. Seems like an outlier to me.

 

[Lacius]

Why was this topic recommended to me on GBATemp?

also lol i'm contributing to rigging the poll with my vote despite being Canadian

The poll is for everybody, not just Americans who are eligible to vote.

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------

To anyone saying that you can get your freedoms back: https://www.deseret.com/u-s-world/2...navirus-back-to-normal-bias-pandemic-covid-19

This article is about the pandemic, not about the loss of freedoms. Do you even read the articles to which you link? The article is also talking about the near future, not forever.

 

[crimpshrine]

View attachment 229785

except she's not. if people wore the damn masks, and followed instructions, we'd be in the same boat as NZ, you know, no cases. not 20+% of deaths with 5% of the population.

I am sure the fact that New Zealand is1 country surrounded by water, and the USA is 50 states, with no travel restrictions that were enforced between each state with separate rules and restrictions set by each governor of each state, has nothing at all to do with this. In a sense the USA is like 50 countries all huddled together with no border control. With a virus this transmissible it's not unreasonable for it to spread and continue to spread.

I think you missed the point of my post anyhow. She is a moron because she made this statement:

If you’re tired of lockdowns or tired of wearing masks or you wish you were in church this morning or watching college football or your kids were in-person instruction, it’s time for change in this country. That’s why we’ve got to elect Joe Biden.”

If you elect Joe, there will be no more lockdowns, no more masks, school will get back to normal, and everything else. Don't be too obvious with you attempt to influence the voters. She is responsible for her state and being in the top 10 for death counts and trying to pull that shit is stupid. LOL

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https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ra...op-emails-not-russian-disinformation-campaign

Schiff is an idiot and has no business telling the US people his opinions as fact.

 

[crimpshrine]

What BS.

https://thenationalpulse.com/news/p...cy-focus-following-hunter-biden-laptop-leaks/

If Biden makes it, you know Trump will press him on it regardless. LOL

 

[FAST6191]

Polls are fun but it seems we have results in for a lot of postal votes. If you want to play extrapolation figuring out what percentage of votes are in and what that might mean if it plays out accordingly (usually have more democrats doing this than republicans so straight multiplication is not advised, however many places have enough that you can figure out the relevant multiplication).
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/
Has all sorts of cool info with regards to age, sex and whatever else as well if you want to go that way.

Some fairly tight races in a lot of places, including swing states.

i've been noticing a lot of this BS on this forum in the form of allowing terms like "holocough"

I don't understand the great objection there.
It is a silly slang name for a phenomenon. Such things get coined for just about everything, certainly anything that reaches the cultural zeitgeist. Can make understanding harder if a shared lexicon/dictionary is not had but with context its meaning is fairly plain.

Edit

except she's not. if people wore the damn masks, and followed instructions, we'd be in the same boat as NZ, you know, no cases. not 20+% of deaths with 5% of the population.

Is that a reasonable expectation? Compliance with medical orders is a factor in the calculation of such things. I don't rate most people's ability to both obtain and use such things properly.

 

[Lacius]

View attachment 229785


I am sure the fact that New Zealand is1 country surrounded by water, and the USA is 50 states, with no travel restrictions that were enforced between each state with separate rules and restrictions set by each governor of each state, has nothing at all to do with this. In a sense the USA is like 50 countries all huddled together with no border control. With a virus this transmissible it's not unreasonable for it to spread and continue to spread.

View attachment 229828

I think you missed the point of my post anyhow. She is a moron because she made this statement:



If you elect Joe, there will be no more lockdowns, no more masks, school will get back to normal, and everything else. Don't be too obvious with you attempt to influence the voters. She is responsible for her state and being in the top 10 for death counts and trying to pull that shit is stupid. LOL

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ra...op-emails-not-russian-disinformation-campaign

View attachment 229829

Schiff is an idiot and has no business telling the US people his opinions as fact.

View attachment 229830

View attachment 229831

Ratcliffe is a conspiracy theorist and a partisan hack. His first nomination was withdrawn by Trump due to a myriad of controversies. Please don't act like anything this man says matters with regard to whether or not this made-up story about Hunter Biden is Russian disinformation.

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What BS.

View attachment 229834

https://thenationalpulse.com/news/p...cy-focus-following-hunter-biden-laptop-leaks/

View attachment 229835

If Biden makes it, you know Trump will press him on it regardless. LOL

There was no change to the topics. Also, this article you linked to is laughably biased, implying causal connections where there is evidence of none, calling the commission partisan when it's not, etc.

 

[D34DL1N3R]

I've came to read the logical comments that I'm able to see and have forgot to log in a couple of times, thus seeing a couple posts from the dotard clan. This entire thing being spewed about freedoms being taken away is a bunch of pure stupidity. No ones freedoms are being taken away. You Trumpbillies are STILL free to do anything and everything you wish to do. Freedom doesn't mean zero consequence. Period. Fact. For example, you're free to murder anyone you wish. That doesn't mean you are free from consequence for acting on that freedom. Try to keep up, yeah?

 

[UltraSUPRA]

I've came to read the logical comments that I'm able to see and have forgot to log in a couple of times, thus seeing a couple posts from the dotard clan. This entire thing being spewed about freedoms being taken away is a bunch of pure stupidity. No ones freedoms are being taken away. You Trumpbillies are STILL free to do anything and everything you wish to do. Period. Fact.

Without a mask on?