I don't know what to think. Nintendo may have learned it's lesson from the 3DS and Wii U. It doesn't seem like it would be that hard for them to implement private headers (that are actually attached to the games they came with), and tracking which eShop downloads have been paid for on a console versus which ones haven't.
If a public way of dumping switch cartridges gets released, maybe we can compare dumps and verify whether or not they have private headers attached. If so, there may be no safe way of pirating games without being banned. People will play for months with no problem, and then suddenly with a big release like Smash Bros. or something Nintendo lays down the ban hammer and you have hundreds of people getting banned simultaneously.
Or, maybe Nintendo would rather keep you as a $20 a year subscriber, and won't bother with the bans. It's really hard to say at this point. I'm going to stay away from piracy on the Switch and stick with homebrew and emulators, at least until a few months after Smash gets released. By that time we should know more.
