I have to agree with you.
If the card was dying, it'll probably just load the card and hang at black screen, rather than give that prompt.
Ok.
v0 whitelist on emunand with v11264 whitelist on sysnand gets the error.
v11264 whitelist on emunand with v0 whitelist on sysnand gets the error as well.
Try loading into sysnand and launching the homebrew menu to load fbi.3dsx. Change the destination to nand and check the installed version of the 0004800F484E4841 title. You MAY need to load miniPasta to do this (or use gateway to access sysnand if you have it).
If the version is anything other than 0x0, install the file I had you download (the unspoofed v0 Whitelist). Then boot into emunand and try loading the flashcart.
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Just checked and since you are only deleting and then installing a legitimately signed cia, you can use FBI without loading GW mode sysnand or minipasta or anything similar. Just load sysnand, then hbl, then fbi.