Hacking Are 3DS's getting bricked more often recently?

[kyogre123]

Gotta totally agree LOL

It's basically this:
If the chance of NOT getting a brick is 95% for every attempt of loading the launcher; then the chance of successfully loading the launcher 10 times in a row (without screwing the 3DS) would be 0.95^10= 0.59 or 59%. The key here is that the future odds are not ruled by past odds, that's why the probability changes for every attempt.

 

[CraddaPoosta]

When someone specifically says that ALL 3DS consoles using a Gateway card running 2.0b2 will, and I quote , "_eventually_" brick, that is a statement of certainty, not probability. It is misleading to try to convince people that every single Gateway card running that firmware is going to, no matter what, brick every single 3DS console that runs it, in a long enough timeline. That isn't factual and it isn't true. That's my entire point.

The bricks are not happening because of repeated or lengthy use of the Gateway card. If they are, please demonstrate your undeniable proof that it MUST be that. You will be the first person to pin down precisely what is causing all the bricks, and the entire 3DS scene will thank you.

 

[gamesquest1]

you cant actually calculate probablility of a random bug, its not actually known why it has occurred on genuine gateway cards yet so unless WHY is determined you cant even make a rough calculation

 

[kyogre123]

The bricks are not happening because of repeated or lengthy use of the Gateway card.

Indeed they aren't, they are caused by the launcher; I would say that all the flashcards are harmless; the rest of the matter is just basic probability, nothing related to a code, and again I don't even know where that percentage chance came from, but that's how probability works.

 

[CraddaPoosta]

Not just that, but, the laws of probability always dictate, as has been mentioned by myself and various others on the same topic, that each subsequent "roll of the dice", as it were, has absolutely no bearing on the previous "roll", or the next. If the probability is fixed and static, then EVERY time you boot your 3DS, if there is a 5% chance that you will brick, then it will ALWAYS be the same probability percentage.

When more information comes to light, and we figure out exactly what is causing the bricks, it will prove that the length of time used has no bearing on whether or not you are likely to brick. And, who knows? It must just be the length of time. We simply don't have enough information yet to pin it down.

The only common factors we have found so far is the firmware. My 3DS hasn't bricked, and I have spent roughly 50 hours on it since I got my Gateway card. Played at least 60 different games on it, on two different microSD cards, and even swapped out the 3DS SD card, repeatedly.

I've written the contents of the Blue Card with the Gateway files over at least a dozen times so far, and I have probably cold booted my 3DS and launched Gateway Mode at least 200 times.

Why, then, have I not bricked?

 

[kyogre123]

Not just that, but, the laws of probability always dictate, as has been mentioned by myself and various others on the same topic, that each subsequent "roll of the dice", as it were, has absolutely no bearing on the previous "roll", or the next. If the probability is fixed and static, then EVERY time you boot your 3DS, if there is a 5% chance that you will brick, then it will ALWAYS be the same probability percentage.

Then basically these last posts in this topic have been discussing the same thing from a different perspective, that's the reason of the whole mess... way to go.

 

[gamesquest1]

the truth is because the cause is unknown there is no way to extrapolate a realistic scale of probability, it could just be that genuine cards used on a system with 444 in their serial caused the bug and that bug would only ever apply to a console with 444 in the serial, until the exact reason is known its all just guessing


that's not to say that the figures are incorrect, just that until you have either proven or dis-proven alternatives nobody could truly know

 

[CraddaPoosta]

Then basically these last posts in this topic have been discussing the same thing from a different perspective, that's the reason of the whole mess... way to go.

No, it has been all semantic blockage. People were saying all the right things, but no one was talking about the same thing. Always have to agree on terms and definitions before you have any debate, or this is what you wind up with. A clusterfuck of intellectualism.

 

[mr allen]

When someone specifically says that ALL 3DS consoles using a Gateway card running 2.0b2 will, and I quote , "_eventually_" brick, that is a statement of certainty, not probability. It is misleading to try to convince people that every single Gateway card running that firmware is going to, no matter what, brick every single 3DS console that runs it, in a long enough timeline. That isn't factual and it isn't true. That's my entire point.

The bricks are not happening because of repeated or lengthy use of the Gateway card. If they are, please demonstrate your undeniable proof that it MUST be that. You will be the first person to pin down precisely what is causing all the bricks, and the entire 3DS scene will thank you.

I went back and looked and someone did say that but you weren't addressing that, you were addressing someone elses math.

you cant actually calculate probablility of a random bug, its not actually known why it has occurred on genuine gateway cards yet so unless WHY is determined you cant even make a rough calculation

But you can calculate the chance of it randomly occurring because we don't know the cause. There is no reason you can't do that

Indeed they aren't, they are caused by the launcher; I would say that all the flashcards are harmless; the rest of the matter is just basic probability, nothing related to a code, and again I don't even know where that percentage chance came from, but that's how probability works.

The percentages are most likely not right but that's all there is to work with here.

Not just that, but, the laws of probability always dictate, as has been mentioned by myself and various others on the same topic, that each subsequent "roll of the dice", as it were, has absolutely no bearing on the previous "roll", or the next. If the probability is fixed and static, then EVERY time you boot your 3DS, if there is a 5% chance that you will brick, then it will ALWAYS be the same probability percentage.

I keep trying to say this but we're not looking at one attempt, we're looking at the chance of a brick in 12 attempts. Each attempt still has the same exact chance of a brick

When more information comes to light, and we figure out exactly what is causing the bricks, it will prove that the length of time used has no bearing on whether or not you are likely to brick. And, who knows? It must just be the length of time. We simply don't have enough information yet to pin it down.

The only common factors we have found so far is the firmware. My 3DS hasn't bricked, and I have spent roughly 50 hours on it since I got my Gateway card. Played at least 60 different games on it, on two different microSD cards, and even swapped out the 3DS SD card, repeatedly.

I've written the contents of the Blue Card with the Gateway files over at least a dozen times so far, and I have probably cold booted my 3DS and launched Gateway Mode at least 200 times.

Why, then, have I not bricked?

you could be lucky. But the most likely thing is that the actual chance of it occurring is much lower then we think it is.

 

[CraddaPoosta]

Like, 5% of the potential userbase, low?

LOL.

I agree. The number is much, much smaller than the hype surrounding the bricks reported. Not that they are not deadly serious.

 

[gamesquest1]

yeah but they are based on it being random their may be an obvious cause, whilst i agree its nice to try work out probability based on it being random, it may not be as random as we all think, and one person with the real cause may see this thread and think yeah i only have a 5% chance of being bricked when in actual fact because his console or setup is more likely to trigger the bug its actually 90%


BUT that being said we dont have anything else to go on atm, hopefully with gateway being sent some consoles, they might be able to realize exactly what the cause is and fix it

final note from me on the matter is that nothing is ever 100% in coding and gateway shouldnt of put such a excessively damaging piece of code in, formatting the nand is one thing but locking it was too much considering bugs WILL ALWAYS happen