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Joe Biden Wins - Becomes 46th president of the United States

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Doran754

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Everyone has a 100% chance of dying anyway, its the timing.

I accept that for a small percentage of people their covid infection coincided with their time being up, but I doubt it's statistically significant. If someone is living with heart disease and they die after a covid infection, then the covid infection is the cause.



If you have a twitter account and like lies then join parler, the echo chamber for your lies.

https://people.com/human-interest/parler-app-compared-echo-chamber/

It's just a bunch of outraged people daring each other to be more outrageous. Imagine the self harm you can inflict.

Sounds like you're mad you dont get to suppress speech and opposing views with no repercussions anymore. Don't worry, you'll be welcome on Twitter for life, just say women are men and don't forget your pronouns, you'll be verified within a day.
 

smf

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No, no, no... :)

I'm not sure what you're disagreeing with, you can't include a number you don't know in your statistical model.

You would assume that for every x known cases, there are y unknown cases. What would tend to happen is you run the model and if it's too high or low you tweak y :D
 

notimp

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I'm not sure what you're disagreeing with, you can't include a number you don't know in your statistical model.
But you can include growth rate. And do projections.

Models are not about 'reality' models are about 'complexity reduced systems'.

So you take a few things about reality you know (f.e. real CFR and rate of spread), and you 'model' what would happen if... (F.e. rate of spread is not reduced.)

You do that because -- give me some time to type.. ;)
 
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smf

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Sounds like you're mad you dont get to suppress speech and opposing views with no repercussions anymore. Don't worry, you'll be welcome on Twitter for life, just say women are men and don't forget your pronouns, you'll be verified within a day.

I'm not on twitter.

IMO it's mad to go on social media if all you want is for validation.
 

gregory-samba

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No, no, no... :)

Here is how statistical sampling works. As a whole. Take 500 people. Make sure they are 'normal in distribution' (according to some criteria (age, income, health, population density..). Ask them questions. Then say "the same would be true for the entire population".

If you do it with 5 people - it doesnt work. If you do it with 500 it kinda does. But you maybe arent that certain. If you do it with 5000 you are pretty certain. (Many issues alongside of 'stuff can change' (predictions are hard), or 'people not telling you stuff openly').
--

But if you only start planning, when the problem is _there_ you are dead, dead - when it comes to a problem that has exponential growth rate.

So you use statistical models.

How reliable they are and how accurate and, .... all valid questions. But you start with preparation in the 'everything is fine' state - 'knowing about the nature of the problem'.

(Virus isnt going to kill more people - just because its monday. If everything impacting death criteria doesnt change much (hospitals stay operational). Virus isn not going to infect less people, if you do nothing.
(Actually it is - because of only near exponential growth (at some point it plateuas), and stuff like herd immunity (but the issue is, that if you get there too quickly, all your hospital infrastructure is going to fail)). )
---

'Exponential' is this hockey stick curve thingy:
ZIoStHS.png


That comes as a result of 'on person "converting" tree others" - in a short period of time'.

It's funny how there's so many new cases and very few deaths. It's almost like the Chinese Wuhan Corona Virus isn't that deadly. With that said it's time for me to go out and about, starting with eating breakfast inside of a restaurant. You all can live in fear, but I choose not to.
 
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smf

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But you can include growth rate. And do projections.

Right, but you'd just base your growth rate on what you know surely?
The higher the unknown cases, the more known cases you should have.
So would you bother trying to work out what the unknown cases were at all?
 

notimp

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Right, but you'd just base your growth rate on what you know surely?
The higher the unknown cases, the more known cases you should have.
So would you bother trying to work out what the unknown cases were at all?
You do not. Give me time to type. :)

So the problem is, that you are faced with this:

'Exponential' is this hockey stick curve thingy:
ZIoStHS.png


That comes as a result of 'one person "converting" tree others" - in a short period of time'.

And that at one point (== hospitals getting full) you need to get the the downward slope again you also see in that graph (which I did'nt mark)).

Getting to that downward slope FAST, is very costly. (Basically halting your economy.)

Developing strategies, how to get to the downward slope, has to be done - before you reach that point.

Modeling is about giving you a rough Idea, when you reach that point (where drastic measures are necessary (and if)). And what to do then. (Roughly telly you, what what measure would do.)

Mitigation (masks, handwashing) is about, trying to never let the hockeystick appear (not letting one person infect 3 others).

And getting on the downward slope fast is 'in no way free, easy, or a natural given' (at some point it is, because "most of the fuel is burned" - then you plateau, but that can be at case numbers, way too high for certain other societal systems (hospitals, ...)).
--

Watch this movie if you want to see the 'hollywood version' of solving pestilence in the middle ages. ;)
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2101473/?ref_=nm_flmg_act_39

Hero walzes in the day after the plague hit town. Realizes its fleas on rats that are transmitting the disease, by looking at three dead people. Ben Kingsley and a group of 50 good guys make rat poison. A week later the curve goes down, the city is saved, and its back to power games.. ;)

In reality - you try to mitigate longterm costs (== you having to do harsh things to get the curve on the downwards slope again), while giving people developing vaccines more time to scale up production (== solve the issue structurally (rat poison in the Ben Kingsley movie.. ;) ).

Models are there to show you "decision packages" at certain 'stages'. You have several ones of those. (And a priest cast (scientists) that presents that to political leaders. Little better than priests, maybe.. ;) ) Who then decide on when to implement what.

if hospitals not overrun yet (or in danger to be). Less harsh measures can still be deployed. (If growth rate is not that exponential (meaning time until caserate doubles, is not three days or some incredibly small amount of time)).
 
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jimbo13

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imagine being such a cringelord that 250k people dying in your country alone isn't enough for you to listen to reason
this guy would be on the titanic shouting that everyone's a pussy, it's just some cold water


Imagine being worked up about 250K deaths when never in your life have you been worried about the 655K that die every year from drinking shit with granulated sugar.

The inflated kung-flu Wuhan Chinese bioweapon attack kills less than automobile accidents & the suicide your hysteria lock downs are going to lead to.

If life has to stop over 250K deaths, most of which would of happened due to flu, or whatever other health problems they had besides covid start with the cars and drag all these dumb gear heads off the road.

It's not statistically significant and I sincerely don't give a fuck. Let the 255K be a monument and a reminder to collectivists they better come up with better solutions that don't require my attention or concern because I will gladly risk mine and everyone else's life to oppose anything that MIGHT be a communist plot.


If celebrities start singing songs, or women start making black and white videos with stupid shit written on signs, if it involves a facebook filter, if facebook is going to fact check for posting a meme about it PEOPLE ARE JUST GOING TO HAVE TO DIE.
 
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smf

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Models are there to show you "decision packages" at certain 'stages'. You have several ones of those. (And a priest cast (scientists) that presents that to political leaders. Little better than priests, maybe.. ;) ) Who then decide on when to implement what.

Right, I kinda feel like you're arguing with me & I can't see anything in there that I disagree with.

Imagine being worked up about 250K deaths when never in your life have you been worried about the 655K that die every year from drinking shit with granulated sugar.

I gave up processed sugar years ago, it's your choice whether you consume it or not. I don't preach about it, it's their own choice.

But I can't give up covid.

The inflated kung-flu Wuhan Chinese bioweapon attack kills less than automobile accidents & the suicide your hysteria lock downs are going to lead to.

If you call covid 19 "inflated kung-flu Wuhan Chinese bioweapon attack" then it would seem to me that you are the one suffering from hysteria.

Do you have suicide figures for this year and previous years?

There has been multiple occasions where outrage against car manufacturers has forced them to make safer cars. There was a time when they argued that making safe cars was too high a cost for the number of people who died. That didn't work out too well for them.
 
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notimp

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tabzer

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Can we get back on topic? Developments have been happening in relationship to the claim that "Joe Biden Wins". Did he? Seems like the Covid thing is just a distraction from what truly matters--and it's that everyone is wrong.
 

AmandaRose

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Can we get back on topic? Developments have been happening in relationship to the claim that "Joe Biden Wins".
Well said tabzer.

Here is the latest news.

China finally congratulates Biden on election win as president ‘considers pardoning Flynn’


China has congratulated Joe Biden on his election victory over Donald Trump. Xi Jinping was reported as saying he hoped Beijing and Washington could develop a healthy and stable bilateral relationship.

Meanwhile, Mr Trump is planning to pardon Michael Flynn his disgraced former national security adviser who pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI during the Russian meddling investigation, as one of the final acts of his presidency, according to a report.



Reuters cited an unnamed source in reporting the plan, which was first reported by Axios. Other pardons may also be in the works.

Overnight, Mr Trump also appears to have been active on Twitter at about midnight, issuing a string of retweets. One attacked a Fox News reporter by name for suggesting Rudy Giuliani, the president’s lawyer, had no evidence to support his election fraud claims; another boosted a lawsuit apparently planned by Sidney Powell, who was dismissed from Mr Trump’s legal team earlier this week.


 
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wartutor

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Let these liberals keep pushing and pushing sooner or later something will break and im sure it wont be the gun toting hard ass's that dont give a fuck. Then the pansy ass liberals can march and "protest" to their end.
 
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That's one angle to perceive things. Have you considered this angle?



I'm interested in what kind of ante you'd like to wager.
Leigh Dundas is a anti-vaxer
...
I would ask you to reconsider your video choice. Do some research on the people you are linking or video's talking about people.



anti vax is not a valid position, you fail to vax you hurt others. The only excuse for not having a known tested vaccine is if you have some immune system disorder, which is exceptionally rare.
 
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Xzi

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Those policies will not be implemented here, and even if they were no one would follow them and if the Democrats think they are going to use military and occupy a American state good luck with that.
Oh so you live in Alabama or some other state Republicans have turned into a desolate shithole over the years. Yeah never mind, you don't need any restrictions, we'll just take down all the pieces of Trump's wall and put it back up around you instead. Mark it the, "Plague and Incest Zone." Or, "The Hills Have Eyes Zone."
 

UltraSUPRA

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Oh so you live in Alabama or some other state Republicans have turned into a desolate shithole over the years. Yeah never mind, you don't need any restrictions, we'll just take down all the pieces of Trump's wall and put it back up around you instead. Mark it the, "Plague and Incest Zone." Or, "The Hills Have Eyes Zone."
Alabama has a statewide mask mandate. That's why I'm here.
 

Xzi

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Alabama has a statewide mask mandate. That's why I'm here.
That's why it cracks me up every time he says, "they'll never implement restrictions HERE." If even Alabama is following the guidelines, then at this point everybody is following them. So either we keep the case count low, and masks will be the worst we have to deal with, or we go back to more restrictive lockdowns. There is no third option until the vaccine gets widely distributed, because Biden knows he wasn't elected to sit on his hands or play golf like Trump.
 
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