Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. shamzie

    shamzie Conform comrades
    Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2014
    Messages:
    1,153
    Country:
    United Kingdom
    Sounds like you're mad you dont get to suppress speech and opposing views with no repercussions anymore. Don't worry, you'll be welcome on Twitter for life, just say women are men and don't forget your pronouns, you'll be verified within a day.
     
  2. smf

    smf GBAtemp Psycho!
    Member

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2009
    Messages:
    4,503
    Country:
    United Kingdom
    I'm not sure what you're disagreeing with, you can't include a number you don't know in your statistical model.

    You would assume that for every x known cases, there are y unknown cases. What would tend to happen is you run the model and if it's too high or low you tweak y :D
     
  3. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
    Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2007
    Messages:
    5,360
    Country:
    Laos
    But you can include growth rate. And do projections.

    Models are not about 'reality' models are about 'complexity reduced systems'.

    So you take a few things about reality you know (f.e. real CFR and rate of spread), and you 'model' what would happen if... (F.e. rate of spread is not reduced.)

    You do that because -- give me some time to type.. ;)
     
    Last edited by notimp, Nov 25, 2020
  4. smf

    smf GBAtemp Psycho!
    Member

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2009
    Messages:
    4,503
    Country:
    United Kingdom
    I'm not on twitter.

    IMO it's mad to go on social media if all you want is for validation.
     
  5. gregory-samba

    gregory-samba GBAtemp Advanced Fan
    Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2020
    Messages:
    535
    Country:
    United States
    It's funny how there's so many new cases and very few deaths. It's almost like the Chinese Wuhan Corona Virus isn't that deadly. With that said it's time for me to go out and about, starting with eating breakfast inside of a restaurant. You all can live in fear, but I choose not to.
     
    wartutor likes this.
  6. smf

    smf GBAtemp Psycho!
    Member

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2009
    Messages:
    4,503
    Country:
    United Kingdom
    Right, but you'd just base your growth rate on what you know surely?
    The higher the unknown cases, the more known cases you should have.
    So would you bother trying to work out what the unknown cases were at all?
     
  7. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
    Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2007
    Messages:
    5,360
    Country:
    Laos
    You do not. Give me time to type. :)

    So the problem is, that you are faced with this:

    'Exponential' is this hockey stick curve thingy:
    [​IMG]

    That comes as a result of 'one person "converting" tree others" - in a short period of time'.

    And that at one point (== hospitals getting full) you need to get the the downward slope again you also see in that graph (which I did'nt mark)).

    Getting to that downward slope FAST, is very costly. (Basically halting your economy.)

    Developing strategies, how to get to the downward slope, has to be done - before you reach that point.

    Modeling is about giving you a rough Idea, when you reach that point (where drastic measures are necessary (and if)). And what to do then. (Roughly telly you, what what measure would do.)

    Mitigation (masks, handwashing) is about, trying to never let the hockeystick appear (not letting one person infect 3 others).

    And getting on the downward slope fast is 'in no way free, easy, or a natural given' (at some point it is, because "most of the fuel is burned" - then you plateau, but that can be at case numbers, way too high for certain other societal systems (hospitals, ...)).
    --

    Watch this movie if you want to see the 'hollywood version' of solving pestilence in the middle ages. ;)
    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2101473/?ref_=nm_flmg_act_39

    Hero walzes in the day after the plague hit town. Realizes its fleas on rats that are transmitting the disease, by looking at three dead people. Ben Kingsley and a group of 50 good guys make rat poison. A week later the curve goes down, the city is saved, and its back to power games.. ;)

    In reality - you try to mitigate longterm costs (== you having to do harsh things to get the curve on the downwards slope again), while giving people developing vaccines more time to scale up production (== solve the issue structurally (rat poison in the Ben Kingsley movie.. ;) ).

    Models are there to show you "decision packages" at certain 'stages'. You have several ones of those. (And a priest cast (scientists) that presents that to political leaders. Little better than priests, maybe.. ;) ) Who then decide on when to implement what.

    if hospitals not overrun yet (or in danger to be). Less harsh measures can still be deployed. (If growth rate is not that exponential (meaning time until caserate doubles, is not three days or some incredibly small amount of time)).
     
    Last edited by notimp, Nov 25, 2020
  8. smf

    smf GBAtemp Psycho!
    Member

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2009
    Messages:
    4,503
    Country:
    United Kingdom
    Deaths aren't funny.

    We're talking about covid19, I think that must be something different to what you are talking about. It's got a different name for a start.
     
  9. jimbo13

    jimbo13 Terry Crews #1 Fan
    Member

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2012
    Messages:
    706
    Country:
    United States

    Imagine being worked up about 250K deaths when never in your life have you been worried about the 655K that die every year from drinking shit with granulated sugar.

    The inflated kung-flu Wuhan Chinese bioweapon attack kills less than automobile accidents & the suicide your hysteria lock downs are going to lead to.

    If life has to stop over 250K deaths, most of which would of happened due to flu, or whatever other health problems they had besides covid start with the cars and drag all these dumb gear heads off the road.

    It's not statistically significant and I sincerely don't give a fuck. Let the 255K be a monument and a reminder to collectivists they better come up with better solutions that don't require my attention or concern because I will gladly risk mine and everyone else's life to oppose anything that MIGHT be a communist plot.


    If celebrities start singing songs, or women start making black and white videos with stupid shit written on signs, if it involves a facebook filter, if facebook is going to fact check for posting a meme about it PEOPLE ARE JUST GOING TO HAVE TO DIE.
     
    Last edited by jimbo13, Nov 25, 2020
    UltraSUPRA and wartutor like this.
  10. smf

    smf GBAtemp Psycho!
    Member

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2009
    Messages:
    4,503
    Country:
    United Kingdom
    Right, I kinda feel like you're arguing with me & I can't see anything in there that I disagree with.

    I gave up processed sugar years ago, it's your choice whether you consume it or not. I don't preach about it, it's their own choice.

    But I can't give up covid.

    If you call covid 19 "inflated kung-flu Wuhan Chinese bioweapon attack" then it would seem to me that you are the one suffering from hysteria.

    Do you have suicide figures for this year and previous years?

    There has been multiple occasions where outrage against car manufacturers has forced them to make safer cars. There was a time when they argued that making safe cars was too high a cost for the number of people who died. That didn't work out too well for them.
     
    Last edited by smf, Nov 25, 2020
    IncredulousP likes this.
  11. jimbo13

    jimbo13 Terry Crews #1 Fan
    Member

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2012
    Messages:
    706
    Country:
    United States
    Nothing is making you get within transmission distance of another human being.
     
  12. notimp

    notimp Well-Known Member
    Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2007
    Messages:
    5,360
    Country:
    Laos
    Last edited by notimp, Nov 25, 2020
  13. tabzer

    tabzer GBAtemp Maniac
    Member

    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2019
    Messages:
    1,490
    Country:
    Japan
    Can we get back on topic? Developments have been happening in relationship to the claim that "Joe Biden Wins". Did he? Seems like the Covid thing is just a distraction from what truly matters--and it's that everyone is wrong.
     
  14. AmandaRose

    AmandaRose Do what I do. Hold tight and pretend it’s a plan
    Member

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2015
    Messages:
    7,810
    Country:
    United Kingdom
    Well said tabzer.

    Here is the latest news.

    China finally congratulates Biden on election win as president ‘considers pardoning Flynn’


    China has congratulated Joe Biden on his election victory over Donald Trump. Xi Jinping was reported as saying he hoped Beijing and Washington could develop a healthy and stable bilateral relationship.

    Meanwhile, Mr Trump is planning to pardon Michael Flynn his disgraced former national security adviser who pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI during the Russian meddling investigation, as one of the final acts of his presidency, according to a report.



    Reuters cited an unnamed source in reporting the plan, which was first reported by Axios. Other pardons may also be in the works.

    Overnight, Mr Trump also appears to have been active on Twitter at about midnight, issuing a string of retweets. One attacked a Fox News reporter by name for suggesting Rudy Giuliani, the president’s lawyer, had no evidence to support his election fraud claims; another boosted a lawsuit apparently planned by Sidney Powell, who was dismissed from Mr Trump’s legal team earlier this week.


     
    Last edited by AmandaRose, Nov 25, 2020
    IncredulousP and monkeyman4412 like this.
  15. tabzer

    tabzer GBAtemp Maniac
    Member

    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2019
    Messages:
    1,490
    Country:
    Japan
    That's one angle to perceive things. Have you considered this angle?

    I'm interested in what kind of ante you'd like to wager.
     
  16. wartutor

    wartutor GBAtemp Advanced Fan
    Member

    Joined:
    Dec 25, 2012
    Messages:
    523
    Country:
    United States
    Let these liberals keep pushing and pushing sooner or later something will break and im sure it wont be the gun toting hard ass's that dont give a fuck. Then the pansy ass liberals can march and "protest" to their end.
     
  17. monkeyman4412

    monkeyman4412 Gbatemp's moronic trash
    Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2016
    Messages:
    2,175
    Country:
    United States
    Leigh Dundas is a anti-vaxer
    ...
    I would ask you to reconsider your video choice. Do some research on the people you are linking or video's talking about people.



    anti vax is not a valid position, you fail to vax you hurt others. The only excuse for not having a known tested vaccine is if you have some immune system disorder, which is exceptionally rare.
     
    AmandaRose likes this.
  18. Xzi

    Xzi GBAtemp's Resident Plok Expert
    Member

    Joined:
    Dec 26, 2013
    Messages:
    11,158
    Country:
    United States
    Oh so you live in Alabama or some other state Republicans have turned into a desolate shithole over the years. Yeah never mind, you don't need any restrictions, we'll just take down all the pieces of Trump's wall and put it back up around you instead. Mark it the, "Plague and Incest Zone." Or, "The Hills Have Eyes Zone."
     
  19. UltraSUPRA

    UltraSUPRA President Elect of the United States of Reality
    Member

    Joined:
    May 4, 2018
    Messages:
    1,423
    Country:
    United States
    Alabama has a statewide mask mandate. That's why I'm here.
     
  20. Xzi

    Xzi GBAtemp's Resident Plok Expert
    Member

    Joined:
    Dec 26, 2013
    Messages:
    11,158
    Country:
    United States
    That's why it cracks me up every time he says, "they'll never implement restrictions HERE." If even Alabama is following the guidelines, then at this point everybody is following them. So either we keep the case count low, and masks will be the worst we have to deal with, or we go back to more restrictive lockdowns. There is no third option until the vaccine gets widely distributed, because Biden knows he wasn't elected to sit on his hands or play golf like Trump.
     
    IncredulousP likes this.
Loading...

Hide similar threads Similar threads with keywords - president, Becomes, United

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.