I can't track the posts down right now, but I've seen a SEVERAL where people were just asking to be banned (updating in CFW, having installed NSPs and playing them without going into airplane mode, etc) but just never got hit, AND more importantly, they ALL claimed they've bought lots of games on the eShop.
I'm starting to think Nintendo has programmed a bit of leeway into their flagging, where someone who has obviously spent a considerable amount on the eShop gets a free pass or two (or maybe it's even a complex formula like they overlook pirated titles if the total cost is less than half of what you've spent... or something like that). Or it's a basic threshold, like spend $500 on games, and ban waves skip you.
Maybe
@Draxzelex can start asking in questionnaire how much you've spent in the eShop (in USD)
Although this is the kind of thing where if it becomes public enough, it can stop working, so I dunno.
Just a thought.