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Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger thinks the current semiconductor shortage will last until 2024. Speaking to CNBC's TechCheck, he explained that the current shortages are impacting the equipment used to manufacture chips, reducing their ability to ramp up production. “That’s part of the reason that we believe the overall semiconductor shortage will now drift into 2024, from our earlier estimates in 2023," said Gelsinger, "just because the shortages have now hit equipment and some of those factory ramps will be more challenged."

Intel is making a concentrated effort right now to increase semiconductor manufacturing capabilities in the U.S. and Europe to disable the "tight hold" Asian manufacturers have on the industry. Intel has already broken ground on two $20 billion plants in Arizona, has pledged to build a $36 billion plant in Germany and is expected to invest "up to $100 billion" on a new complex in Ohio, which Intel believes may be the world's largest chip manufacturing complex. These investments are unlikely to help the current shortage, however, as the Arizona plants are not expected to begin production until 2025, and ground has not yet been broken on the other two.

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[Xzi]

Neon gas is a required component in chip manufacturing, and about half of the world's supply comes from Ukraine. So unfortunately this isn't too surprising to hear. Hope everybody got their PS5s and GPUs during the two whole weeks prices were reasonable.

 

[lordofcombo]

Neon gas is a required component in chip manufacturing, and about half of the world's supply comes from Ukraine. So unfortunately this isn't too surprising to hear. Hope everybody got their PS5s and GPUs during the two whole weeks prices were reasonable.

I dunno man,neon gas is not needed for the 5nm chip manufacturing chips .

 

[sombrerosonic]

Guess my PC will be hella expersive for just a basic gaming pc then. sad i wanted to play Fallout 4

 

[Taleweaver]

Correct me if I'm saying dumb stuff, but is it completely impossible to recycle parts of already existing chips?

I mean...the components don't exist in their pure form in nature either, so there's some cleaning process involved before the chips are made (cooked, iirc) anyway. And it's not like we've literally consumed our old electric appliances, so...

 

[SG854]

Perfect I can resell my PC parts and bank in

 

[WigWrm]

Correct me if I'm saying dumb stuff, but is it completely impossible to recycle parts of already existing chips?

I mean...the components don't exist in their pure form in nature either, so there's some cleaning process involved before the chips are made (cooked, iirc) anyway. And it's not like we've literally consumed our old electric appliances, so...

You can recycle... But it only goes so far. Desoldering chips off of boards by hand is tedious and prone to failure. Improper handling off a board can cause components to suffer static shock and become useless. Improper storage of desoldered components can cause those parts to be affected by esd as well.

No manufacturer wants to buy used components. Even if they are in decent physical shape, there's no way to guarantee that the part isnt counterfeit and that it works to spec. It's a last ditch effort to get outstanding orders out the door.

If chips from a particular lot don't work as expected, the manufacturer can trace them down and the customer can be reimbursed. With used chips it's a huge gamble.

 

[FAST6191]

Correct me if I'm saying dumb stuff, but is it completely impossible to recycle parts of already existing chips?

I mean...the components don't exist in their pure form in nature either, so there's some cleaning process involved before the chips are made (cooked, iirc) anyway. And it's not like we've literally consumed our old electric appliances, so...

Ore is defined as rocks that are worth digging up to get the material you want from them. Cost of digging up and cost of refinement (nature rarely gives you purity) then being those major components. Similar would apply here.

Neon mentioned above is a noble gas so generally used more to purge air and other things from processes (uncontrolled oxygen bad and vacuums have their own set of problems, and some of the etchants and other fun things there, see silane, not much better to be allowed to run riot). Silicon itself is... common as dirt really (well sand I suppose) and we are not going to be seeing germanium or gallium arsenide outside of serious specialist stuff for a while yet. Growing single pure crystals/wafers thereof with proper orientation is more of an energy thing and efforts in making things pure (while not necessarily up there with the lithography setups for making chips then the cost to build a plant to make silicon wafers is hideous). Doping elements are both fractional by requirement (too much doping and at risk of massive simplification then your transistors become LEDs -- see critical doping if you want a search term) and not usually that rare either save for phosphorous https://www.halbleiter.org/en/fundamentals/doping/ .

About the only thing to recover from chips and PCBs is stuff up to around... maybe the mid 90s had an appreciable amount of gold on the connectors (prevents corrosion) but after that improvements in deposition rates meant it got to really thin layers instead (still prevents corrosion, might even be more conductive -- gold is not that great as things go).

Or go another way. Back in science in school you were probably told about irreversible reactions, usually boiling an egg or making a piece of toast. School was wrong https://www.livescience.com/49610-scientists-unboil-egg.html but relative effort and skills required aka money required is massive. Easier to dig up new.

Now the lithium in batteries and some of the rare earth elements used in other things. Those we might get to discuss more.

 

[Deleted member 194275]

I dunno man,neon gas is not needed for the 5nm chip manufacturing chips .

yup, Neon is used in a few newer manufacturing process, the lack of it will not affect Intel, as older process still works fine, and the flagship chips are not neon dependent. The problems still are related with high demand, specially in car industry. Semi-autonomous and entertainment features are more prevalent than ever on cars, and EV and hybrids do rely more on semiconductors than the cancerous traditional vehicle.

 

[WG481]

Correct me if I'm saying dumb stuff, but is it completely impossible to recycle parts of already existing chips?

I mean...the components don't exist in their pure form in nature either, so there's some cleaning process involved before the chips are made (cooked, iirc) anyway. And it's not like we've literally consumed our old electric appliances, so...

Exactly!
What’s keeping them from melting down the components of old computers and PCB’s?

 

[FAST6191]

Exactly!
What’s keeping them from melting down the components of old computers and PCB’s?

Nothing. You would gain nothing for it though.

The vast vast majority of price from making rocks that think comes from the precision of basically all aspects in the process and cleanliness of operations (more than just dust removal as you are playing with unpleasant chemicals) required to get it to do that (most of which, and there are many steps, need highly trained and thus expensive individuals). The material result is almost incidental/rounding error in the price of it, and of no great use in recycling when it is easier to mine more or produce the purity required from existing stocks of things.

 

[Axido]

Scrap those rookie numbers. I predict that the shortage will last until November 5th 2031. You can quote me on that.

 

[Dr_Faustus]

Exactly!
What’s keeping them from melting down the components of old computers and PCB’s?

Its simply not profitable. We really don't use our own recycled technologies in a way you think we do. Most of the time its just processed for frivolous things like cheap jewellery or sold off to other countries that lack the material and will buy ours at a high price even if its not pure.

Also at this point these shortages are basically artficial now, a lot of the issues are behind us but they would rather milk the market and raising prices on shit because otherwise their hardware would go for much cheaper right now. It also means they can put less effort in innovating new things and development when the real issue is that people just want the hardware, not want the hardware to be better. Same shit happened a decade ago with the hard drive shortage, now we are seeing it again here.

 

[Kraken_X]

yup, Neon is used in a few newer manufacturing process, the lack of it will not affect Intel, as older process still works fine, and the flagship chips are not neon dependent. The problems still are related with high demand, specially in car industry. Semi-autonomous and entertainment features are more prevalent than ever on cars, and EV and hybrids do rely more on semiconductors than the cancerous traditional vehicle.

I wonder why nobody has just decided to make a basic car yet. For entertainment/navigation, a cell phone mount and an aux in is better than any car's entertainment system anyways, and all of the self driving stuff isn't mature enough to be anything but a gimmick yet. Sure you still need a computer for fuel regulation and error codes, but that's 90s tech and could easily run on an Atom CPU.

 

[Deleted member 194275]

I wonder why nobody has just decided to make a basic car yet. For entertainment/navigation, a cell phone mount and an aux in is better than any car's entertainment system anyways, and all of the self driving stuff isn't mature enough to be anything but a gimmick yet. Sure you still need a computer for fuel regulation and error codes, but that's 90s tech and could easily run on an Atom CPU.

They are making cars this way just because people are demanding it. At least here where I am, cars ads are all about how you can connect your phone with that disgusting SUV like thing. Maintenance price, and the dumb performance metrics (like maximum speed) that always were a thing on ads here have disappeared.

Semi autonomous and drive assistance is a more complex matter IMO, it is more like automatic gearbox, there is a market that can't drive without those features, a market big enough to the car makers to care about.

 

[Glyptofane]

Scrap those rookie numbers. I predict that the shortage will last until November 5th 2031. You can quote me on that.

Quite possibly. Don't these major economic downturns historically last at least a decade? That's still being somewhat optimistic that there's even ever going to be a way back.

 

[cashboxz01]

I'm beginning to think this is all artificial scarcity at this point, like it was with RAM and Flash storage a few years ago. I can guarantee that when Apple starts making their own silicon in-house, in their own factories, while harvesting the materials, the chip "shortage" is going to be solved.

 

[Armadillo]

2024 the goalposts will be shifted again and it will 2025 for the shortage to end.

 

[spotanjo3]

LOL TO INTEL CEO!

 

[Quetzal]

I'm beginning to think this is all artificial scarcity at this point, like it was with RAM and Flash storage a few years ago. I can guarantee that when Apple starts making their own silicon in-house, in their own factories, while harvesting the materials, the chip "shortage" is going to be solved.

I don't think you understand the electronics industry. It's not just chips, it's virtually every semiconductor, as well as electromechanical parts as well.