[POLL] 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

[Lacius]

How would I measure such a thing?

Polls (and what ones at that*), merchandise sales (be it silly hats or signs to put in the front
garden), betting patterns, early votes, TV ratings, internet video ratings, online engagement (do we look at twitter followers?)?

*itself a massive thing where you contemplate voters on the day (if no young people vote and you collect data from young people does it skew vs only collecting from those that went out and voted in the last however many), shy voters, questions asked.

Some of those might seem silly but at the same time some of those are money where their mouth is aka revealed preference.

Since the first debate, Biden's polling numbers have been soaring. If the election were today, Biden would likely do better than Obama in 2008.

 

[Cylent1]

Here is who I wouldn't vote for and that is rightful opinion!

 

[crimpshrine]

A campaign manager's job is to encourage his or her base to vote -- to discourage the complacency that occurs with massive +10.6 point poll leads. Well done, Jen Dillon.

When I post facts, you say I am speculating.

You are the one who continues to speculate when faced with facts.

Oh that's just because of XXX.

She has never said this previously that I could find, and she says it a few days after the bombshell.

Nahh not related at all.

 

[Lacius]

When I post facts, you say I am speculating.

You are the one who continues to speculate when faced with facts.

View attachment 229765

Oh that's just because of XXX.

She has never said this previously that I could find, and she says it a few days after the bombshell.

Nahh not related at all.

You're trying to pass off speculation as facts, lol.

 

[crimpshrine]

https://www.zerohedge.com/political...r-biden-emails-says-multiple-stories-multiple

Can't wait to see what is next.


Also I am surprised they missed a person when they were creating this news story.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/social-media-backlash-facebook-twitter-hunter-biden

The move prompted fresh criticism on social media over the Biden transition team’s hiring of top Facebook executive Jessica Hertz, which reportedly came days after the 2020 Democrat’s campaign penned a letter to the social media giant urging them to censor President Trump’s posts.

Twitter’s suppression of the Hunter Biden revelations also came days after the company’s director of public policy, Carlos Monje, reportedly left his post to work for the Biden transition team.

Joe Concha, a media reporter for The Hill, underscored the timing of the events on Twitter Sunday after a user observed that the New York Post is “still locked out of its Twitter account for publishing a story that made Joe Biden look bad.”

Nothing at all about Anna Makanju, who is the Facebook executive who was a policy adviser for the Ukraine under Biden when he was VP.

And at Facebook she leads the election integrity effort. Yeah right LOL.

Imagine if Trump's former people went to work for big tech and were censoring Trump related news. The liberals would claim this was 1940 and Trump was Hitler. It would be funny if it were not so true.

 

[Deleted member 326676]

When I post facts, you say I am speculating.

You are the one who continues to speculate when faced with facts.

View attachment 229765

Oh that's just because of XXX.

She has never said this previously that I could find, and she says it a few days after the bombshell.

Nahh not related at all.

Notice how crimpshrine conveniently left out the part where Jen Dillon said, “We cannot become complacent because the very searing truth is that Donald Trump can still win this race, and every indication we have shows that this thing is going to come down to the wire.”

Citation:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...ters-not-to-get-complacent-campaign-like-were

Obviously, that part was left out on purpose because it didn't fit within the framework of crimpshine's logical fallacy (i.e. campaign manager suggests race is closer than polling suggests = aggregate polling should be discounted).

This is why context always matters. The Democrats have been campaigning on the complacency theme for months:

Democrats warn voters: Don't get complacent
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/520418-democrats-warn-voters-dont-get-complacent

"I think we're putting that fear [of another upset loss] to good use, and we're being constructive in the way we're approaching the election," said Guy Cecil, the chairman of Priorities USA, the largest Democratic super PAC supporting Biden's campaign. "Am I optimistic? Yes. But I do continue to have serious concerns and we need to continue to run through the finish line."

'nuff said.

 

[crimpshrine]

Notice how crimpshrine conveniently left out the part where Jen Dillon said, “We cannot become complacent because the very searing truth is that Donald Trump can still win this race, and every indication we have shows that this thing is going to come down to the wire.”

Biden camp urges supporters to 'campaign like we're trailing'
https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...ters-not-to-get-complacent-campaign-like-were

Obviously, that part out was left out on purpose because it didn't fit within the content of crimpshine's logical fallacy (i.e. campaign manager suggests race is closer than polling suggests = aggregate polling should be discounted).

This is why context always matters. The Democrats have been campaigning on the complacency theme for months:

Citation:
Democrats warn voters: Don't get complacent
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/520418-democrats-warn-voters-dont-get-complacent


'nuff said.

She said:

May not be accurate means it might not be right, are you really that blind?

And BTW I posted the article pages back the other day with a link.

It does not matter what else she said because she said they many not be accurate.

Which was MY POINT. If you go back to where this started I was pointing out that even Biden's team does not believe the polls.

The FACT here is that Biden's campaign manager said that the polling showing Biden ahead may not be accurate.

You then start to debate some other aspect which does NOT refute the fact I listed.

 

[Lacius]

https://www.zerohedge.com/political...r-biden-emails-says-multiple-stories-multiple

View attachment 229766

Can't wait to see what is next.


Also I am surprised they missed a person when they were creating this news story.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/social-media-backlash-facebook-twitter-hunter-biden

View attachment 229767



Nothing at all about Anna Makanju, who is the Facebook executive who was a policy adviser for the Ukraine under Biden when he was VP.

And at Facebook she leads the election integrity effort. Yeah right LOL.

Imagine if Trump's former people went to work for big tech and were censoring Trump related news. The liberals would claim this was 1940 and Trump was Hitler. It would be funny if it were not so true.

Great. Come back when there's a real story.

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------

She said:

View attachment 229770

May not be accurate means it might not be right, are you really that blind?

And BTW I posted the article pages back the other day with a link.

It does not matter what else she said because she said they many not be accurate.

Which was MY POINT. If you go back to where this started I was pointing out that even Biden's team does not believe the polls.

The FACT here is that Biden's campaign manager said that the polling showing Biden ahead may not be accurate.

You then start to debate some other aspect which does NOT refute the fact I listed.

What was said about polls possibly being inaccurate is a non-story.

 

[Deleted member 326676]

She said:

View attachment 229770

May not be accurate means it might not be right, are you really that blind?

And BTW I posted the article pages back the other day with a link.

It does not matter what else she said because she said they many not be accurate.

Which was MY POINT. If you go back to where this started I was pointing out that even Biden's team does not believe the polls.

The FACT here is that Biden's campaign manager said that the polling showing Biden ahead may not be accurate.

You then start to debate some other aspect which does NOT refute the fact I listed.

First off, that's not what Jen Dillon said. That quote belongs to Fox News ya freakin' knucklehead, from the below article:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bi...cency-in-memo-donald-trump-can-still-win-this

Dillon cautioned that polling showing Biden ahead may not be accurate.

“[E]ven the best polling can be wrong and that variables like turnout mean that in a number of critical swing states we are fundamentally tied," Dillon wrote.

The above article was in reference to the released memo, where Jen also stated the following:

“We cannot become complacent because the very searing truth is that Donald Trump can still win this race, and every indication we have shows that this thing is going to come down to the wire.”

crimpshrine shouldn't accuse others of blindless when he's misquoting people left and right, while disengenuously leaving out key parts that don't fit within the framework of his logical fallacy.

 

[crimpshrine]

First off, that's not what Jen Dillon said. That quote belongs to Fox News ya freakin' knucklehead, from the below article:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bi...cency-in-memo-donald-trump-can-still-win-this


The above article was in reference to the released memo, where Jen also stated the following:


crimpshrine shouldn't accuse others of blindless when he's misquoting people left and right, while disengenuously leaving out key parts that don't fit within the framework of his logical fallacy.

LOL, you re-reinforced what I have been saying.

“We also know that even the best polling can be wrong, and that variables like turnout mean that in a number of critical states we are functionally tied — and that we need to campaign like we’re trailing.”

Which even with Foxes editorial adjustments, still means the SAME EXACT THING.

If they are wrong, they are obviously NOT accurate.

The FACT I stated is still correct.

The campaign manager said that the polls could be wrong. Which AGAIN has been my point since this started with you.

You tired of going in circles yet?

 

[NostalgicMillennial]

jesus fucking christ the posts i've been reading here is worthy of moving this thread to the goddamn EOF.

 

[Lacius]

LOL, you re-reinforced what I have been saying.

“We also know that even the best polling can be wrong, and that variables like turnout mean that in a number of critical states we are functionally tied — and that we need to campaign like we’re trailing.”

Which even with Foxes editorial adjustments, still means the SAME EXACT THING.

If they are wrong, they are obviously NOT accurate.

The FACT I stated is still correct.

The campaign manager said that the polls could be wrong. Which AGAIN has been my point since this started with you.

You tired of going in circles yet?

Who cares? We all know the polls can be wrong. We all know it isn't over until it's over. The questions are how likely is it the polls are wrong, and how wrong? The way things are going, it doesn't appear likely the polls are wrong. Biden is ahead by over 10 points, and the polls have been uncharacteristically consistent for many months (not counting the surge for Biden after the first debate).

 

[omgcat]

sure, polls can be wrong, but the sheer number of them indicating Biden is up +5 or more would have this be the greatest polling error of all time.

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------

https://www.zerohedge.com/political...r-biden-emails-says-multiple-stories-multiple

View attachment 229766

Can't wait to see what is next.


Also I am surprised they missed a person when they were creating this news story.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/social-media-backlash-facebook-twitter-hunter-biden

View attachment 229767



Nothing at all about Anna Makanju, who is the Facebook executive who was a policy adviser for the Ukraine under Biden when he was VP.

And at Facebook she leads the election integrity effort. Yeah right LOL.

Imagine if Trump's former people went to work for big tech and were censoring Trump related news. The liberals would claim this was 1940 and Trump was Hitler. It would be funny if it were not so true.

oh shit THE Steve Bannon!? you mean troll harnessing, cheat using, wow gold farming, build the wall fraudster Steve Bannon?

pack it in boys, the dems are getting blown out for sure!

I mean, with the power of a recently divorced alcoholic ex-mayor of new York city and a washed up fraudster like bannon joining forces, i'm sure they would never try to deceive Americans!

 

[FAST6191]

I would still be more interested in the quality of the polls rather than a number (questions asked, anonymous nature, means of contact, active or passive, timing, persons surveyed). Or if nothing else "so many news sites are reporting on a concept. They can't all be wrong.". Very little I have ever seen here would have me take any poll at face value and not want to drill down further to see what, if anything, might be extracted. Also then get to figure out how to ply the data back into the system if a simple popular vote or some other obvious setup is not employed and there are a bunch of variables there (plus other mayoral, governor, house and senate stuff that may allow things to happen easier or delay things in other cases).

Also not like polling errors don't have a long and proud history in US elections going back decades now.

I am also curious what situation results when a race like this is so close run (assuming it is). What policies get made to attract people around the place that might be centrist/swing, what rough edges get filed down if they are doing the lesser of evils approach, what internal machinations need to be kept in place to do things to prevent more extreme candidates from displacing or doing the spoiler effect bit.

 

[crimpshrine]

sure, polls can be wrong, but the sheer number of them indicating Biden is up +5 or more would have this be the greatest polling error of all time.

--------------------- MERGED ---------------------------



oh shit THE Steve Bannon!? you mean troll harnessing, cheat using, wow gold farming, build the wall fraudster Steve Bannon?

pack it in boys, the dems are getting blown out for sure!

Laugh all you want but it does not matter. The information so far from the drive has been very damning and confirmed by multiple people. If the data is legitimate, it does not matter who it came from. It was really good last week and likely is going to keep getting better.

On wed the 2nd most googled item was Hunter Biden so it is getting people engaged and looking into this. To the point that Biden won't talk to anyone and his campaign manager is saying polls might not be right. If you don't believe that is a true sign of guilt then your logic is pretty poor. (The not talking part, polls obviously not)

A few of you are really good at denying what is right in front of your face.

 

[Lacius]

Laugh all you want but it does not matter. The information so far from the drive has been very damning and confirmed by multiple people. If the data is legitimate, it does not matter who it came from. It was really good last week and likely is going to keep getting better.

On wed the 2nd most googled item was Hunter Biden so it is getting people engaged and looking into this. To the point that Biden won't talk to anyone and his campaign manager is saying polls might not be right. If you don't believe that is a true sign of guilt then your logic is pretty poor. (The not talking part, polls obviously not)

A few of you are really good at denying what is right in front of your face.

Have you not read any of my posts on the ridiculous chain of custody? The Russian disinformation?

 

[D34DL1N3R]

Here is who I wouldn't vote for and that is rightful opinion!

Your rightful opinion, yes. But are you okay with everything Trump says and does? If so, you're nothing but a hypocrite. Edit: Also, Joe is on the ballot. Not his son.

 

[IncredulousP]

My question is, since there are demonstrably those devoid of reason and logic still defending trash using fallacy and emotion, being used as mindless pawns, how do we deal with them from now on? They are still unfortunately able to vote every 4 years, their ignorance and harm aren't going away. And their opinions are sadly treated as if respectable and legitimate, both in this country and online, in great numbers. Are fascism and ignorance simply the default state of humanity? Has man truly not evolved beyond his primal, animalistic roots?

Y'all make me sad.
All I see is fallacy after misinformation after emotional rhetoric being constantly and civilly debunked, and yet such a large portion of people still support such drivel. What is so clearly, objectively, wrong.
You can be left, right, liberal, conservative, anarchist, communist, but in no way, shape, form, and for no reason, is Trump good for anything other than bolstering the tip top of society at the expense of the rest of the human race.
It's beyond obvious. It's constantly shown. It's in front of your face. How can you call yourself homosapien if you can't reason? You are no more than animal, thrashing about with primal disgust, slave to your emotions and easily leashed by the upper eschelon, who don't care about you at all. You are actively shooting yourselves in the foot, legs, and face yet fight your hardest to defend what you don't even comprehend. Your own persona is built on nothing but lies and hatred, festering inside your hearts and minds, blinding you to even the simplest truths.
What mirror will make you realize what fools you are?

 

[D34DL1N3R]

My question is,...

Post of the year right there. I'd like it 1,000x if I could.

 

[omgcat]

My question is, since there are demonstrably those devoid of reason and logic still defending trash using fallacy and emotion, being used as mindless pawns, how do we deal with them from now on? They are still unfortunately able to vote every 4 years, their ignorance and harm aren't going away. And their opinions are sadly treated as if respectable and legitimate, both in this country and online, in great numbers. Are fascism and ignorance simply the default state of humanity? Has man truly not evolved beyond his primal, animalistic roots?

Y'all make me sad.
All I see is fallacy after misinformation after emotional rhetoric being constantly and civilly debunked, and yet such a large portion of people still support such drivel. What is so clearly, objectively, wrong.
You can be left, right, liberal, conservative, anarchist, communist, but in no way, shape, form, and for no reason, is Trump good for anything other than bolstering the tip top of society at the expense of the rest of the human race.
It's beyond obvious. It's constantly shown. It's in front of your face. How can you call yourself homosapien if you can't reason? You are no more than animal, thrashing about with primal disgust, slave to your emotions and easily leashed by the upper eschelon, who don't care about you at all. You are actively shooting yourselves in the foot, legs, and face yet fight your hardest to defend what you don't even comprehend. Your own persona is built on nothing but lies and hatred, festering inside your hearts and minds, blinding you to even the simplest truths.
What mirror will make you realize what fools you are?

we're not really in any position to help them. they would need to seek professional counseling on their own.

these video's are pretty great at explaining the alt-right tactics and recruitment strategies.



i've been noticing a lot of this BS on this forum in the form of allowing terms like "holocough".

another great video is this one, specifically part 2: