Before the Fusee leak, people assumed >4.1.0 consoles would be shit outta luck, so it was the same as it always is, don't update if you want cfw. But when Fusee leaked, it became known that anyone with a paperclip, copper wire or 3d printer and at least a 2 in dexterity could do it. 1.0.0 users would get it first, 2.0.0-3.0.2 would get it second, then everyone else, with a softmod solution for <4.1.0 in the works. At the time, only 3.0.0 had a homebrew launcher, with lower versions having Pegaswitch.
However, with Hekate, it became obvious that any release would be for all versions. That was a good day. All new demonstration videos that come from anyone who's anyone at all are on the latest firmware. It's going to be a hell of a release.
TL;DR: At this point, it's clear Atmosphere will release for everyone, but the entrypoint may include RCM, at least at launch, if you're above 3.0.2.