Trump leads Kamala in nearly every swing state [Update: Trump wins the 2024 election]

[SylverReZ]

For starters, I think if Kamala lost even worse to Trump than Shillary did it might make the Dems do some soul searching

Both don't have a good reputation, but hey, only one good thing about Kamala is Doritos.

 

[Xzi]

For starters, I think if Kamala lost even worse to Trump than Shillary did it might make the Dems do some soul searching

Hillary ran an absolutely awful campaign, but the only one even more awful than that has been Trump's 2024 campaign. Not once has he tried to appeal to anybody who wasn't already part of his cult. It's the entire country that needs to do some soul searching if we sacrifice our democracy and our republic for a demented fascist clown with one foot in the grave.

 

[Tac 21]

Polls can mean a lot, but you have to examine the sample polled, the methodology, and the track record of the pollster. And one poll taken in isolation, even from a reliable pollster, as you say, means nothing.

yeah I used to think this

but we had an election in BC and the polls were telling that the Cons were gainning

and it turns out they did very well- damn thing ended in a tie basically.

 

[titan_tim]

Removal of the Electoral College as a means of deciding the Presidency would require a Constitutional Amendment. Seeing as it has existed since 1787 it is unlikely to happen in the near term. I will probably not live to see it replaced by the popular vote...but who knows

The idea makes sense in order to strengthen the population of each state as equally as possible with a workforce to support them. Unfortunately, as expected, people just flock to the big cities where there's more money. Occasionally, there's talk about opening new factories in these smaller states, but that is only a band-aid on the problem, as it helps the people in that state, but doesn't bring in that many new people.

There needs to be a reason for people to move from the most populous states into the smaller states to balance things out. People move between California, Texas, NY, and Florida, but that's not spreading things out the way it needs to the smaller states.

 

[x65943]

Hillary ran an absolutely awful campaign, but the only one even more awful than that has been Trump's 2024 campaign. Not once has he tried to appeal to anybody who wasn't already part of his cult. It's the entire country that needs to do some soul searching if we sacrifice our democracy and our republic for a demented fascist clown with one foot in the grave.

Imagine the insanity if there was an electoral college tie (0.4% or 1/250)

The new house and senate would decide the president and VP

The house is a toss-up, the Senate is likely going red

But we could end up with a weird Harris as president, Vance as VP scenario

Trump as president and Walz as VP is also possible

 

[DiscostewSM]

Hillary ran an absolutely awful campaign, but the only one even more awful than that has been Trump's 2024 campaign. Not once has he tried to appeal to anybody who wasn't already part of his cult. It's the entire country that needs to do some soul searching if we sacrifice our democracy and our republic for a demented fascist clown with one foot in the grave.

His entire drive is to use the Oval Office as a means to not go to jail. However you interpret his statement about people not having to vote in 4 years, it's all about him. He'll use his term to wipe away anything against him, and then afterwards, walks away to live his life with no regard for the condition of the country.

 

[Xzi]

Imagine the insanity if there was an electoral college tie (0.4% or 1/250)

The new house and senate would decide the president and VP

The house is a toss-up, the Senate is likely going red

But we could end up with a weird Harris as president, Vance as VP scenario

Trump as president and Walz as VP is also possible

Highly improbable, but I can imagine how glorious the meltdown would be if Harris ended up being the tiebreaking vote in the Senate for that.

His entire drive is to use the Oval Office as a means to not go to jail. However you interpret his statement about people not having to vote in 4 years, it's all about him. He'll use his term to wipe away anything against him, and then afterwards, walks away to live his life with no regard for the condition of the country.

Non-zero chance he flees to Russia to avoid sentencing/prosecution if he does lose. This is exactly the scenario the 14th amendment was written to prevent., but we've never had a SCOTUS this corrupt, either.

 

[titan_tim]

Non-zero chance he flees to Russia to avoid sentencing/prosecution if he does lose. This is exactly the scenario the 14th amendment was written to prevent., but we've never had a SCOTUS this corrupt, either.

Could you IMAGINE the choice that Biden would have to make then?

If anyone with that amount of national security information were to attempt to flee to a hostile nation like Russia, they'd be shot out of the air in a second. If it were a former president, that just makes the choice that much more difficult and insane to think about.

 

[x65943]

Could you IMAGINE the choice that Biden would have to make then?

If anyone with that amount of national security information were to attempt to flee to a hostile nation like Russia, they'd be shot out of the air in a second. If it were a former president, that just makes the choice that much more difficult and insane to think about.

He would have to get permission to take off from air traffic control with flight plans etc

It's not like something like that wouldn't be seen coming

At the same time tho I feel this is a highly unlikely scenario

 

[titan_tim]

He would have to get permission to take off from air traffic control with flight plans etc

It's not like something like that wouldn't be seen coming

At the same time tho I feel this is a highly unlikely scenario

It wouldn't be like he just gets on his plane and asks to fly away. He'd have to be smuggled out of the country. Something similar happened here in Japan with that CEO of Nissan getting smuggled out of his very lenient house-arrest.

But I'm sure that the US would keep a much closer eye on his movements if he were to lose.

 

[Chris2055]

Non-zero chance he flees to Russia to avoid sentencing/prosecution if he does lose. This is exactly the scenario the 14th amendment was written to prevent., but we've never had a SCOTUS this corrupt, either.

I know he's already been convicted on some charges but even if he loses and stays I don't believe he will ever face real and meaningful consequences in our two-tiered justice system. The wealthy are on another level, unfortunately.

 

[Taleweaver]

Removal of the Electoral College as a means of deciding the Presidency would require a Constitutional Amendment. Seeing as it has existed since 1787 it is unlikely to happen in the near term. I will probably not live to see it replaced by the popular vote...but who knows

In theory: probably. In practice, it just might become the norm.

The main issue with the system is the 'first part the post' system that many states use. If your state has 100 delegates and the people vote 49% A and 51% B, B gets 100 delegates.
IIRC, a few states use a system where that outcome would net A 49 and B 51 delegates. But recently I've heard of a third system that's being used by a few states:
The full 100 delegates go to the party with the popular vote.

None of these systems require federal approval, as the states have the authority here.

If more and larger states adopt this system, winning without the popular vote will become mathematically impossible. Extra bonus: this system takes all votes in account, even if you're not in a swing state.

 

[gudenau]

Removal of the Electoral College as a means of deciding the Presidency would require a Constitutional Amendment. Seeing as it has existed since 1787 it is unlikely to happen in the near term. I will probably not live to see it replaced by the popular vote...but who knows

Nah, it's actually somewhat close to happening: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

It's surprising how close the polls are, one side is a homophobic xenophobic bigoted felon traitor fascist senile old man that wants to become a dictator and the other one wants to fix the mess that he left behind that still haven't been fully cleaned up. It's plainly obvious who you should pick yet there are people picking the person that's trying to destroy the country. It makes no sense.

 

[x65943]

Nah, it's actually somewhat close to happening: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

It's surprising how close the polls are, one side is a homophobic xenophobic bigoted felon traitor fascist senile old man that wants to become a dictator and the other one wants to fix the mess that he left behind that still haven't been fully cleaned up. It's plainly obvious who you should pick yet there are people picking the person that's trying to destroy the country. It makes no sense.

The interstate compact will likely need to be decided by the supreme court as Republicans would 100% sue (if it ever gets enough states signing on)

If I had to guess the current supreme court would strike it down

 

[gudenau]

The interstate compact will likely need to be decided by the supreme court as Republicans would 100% sue (if it ever gets enough states signing on)

If I had to guess the current supreme court would strike it down

Yeah they really like their supreme court that messes stuff up, there's nothing to sue about because this is a power the states have. Isn't that what they keep saying they want with abortion? :V

 

[x65943]

Yeah they really like their supreme court that messes stuff up, there's nothing to sue about because this is a power the states have. Isn't that what they keep saying they want with abortion? :V

Scroll down to the Constitutionality section of that Wikipedia page

There are actually very convincing arguments that it would be unconstitutional since it would represent an interstate compact which needs congressional approval

A more left minded court might let it slide but this current court surely wouldn't

 

[gudenau]

Scroll down to the Constitutionality section of that Wikipedia page

There are actually very convincing arguments that it would be unconstitutional since it would represent an interstate compact which needs congressional approval

A more left minded court might let it slide but this current court surely wouldn't

I dunno, the things it lists reads more like it's legal than it's illegal. There's no doubt that the current corruption levels in the court would invent a new law against it, but hopefully the corruption gets fixed soon.

 

[Dark_Ansem]

Well well well, i guess this time insulting Puerto rico didn't exactly pan out well.

 

[SeltzerMist]

Well well well, i guess this time insulting Puerto rico didn't exactly pan out well.

https://x.com/GeraldoRivera/status/1850692684152721446

Whoops

 

[Purple_Shyguy]

It's actually insane this is real