Trump leads Kamala in nearly every swing state [Update: Trump wins the 2024 election]

[x65943]

Kamala is behind Trump in the national vote, but also lags behind in nearly every swing state including:

Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona

In fact polling is showing Virginia as more competitive than Arizona currently

Democrats can afford to lose most of those, but must win Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - a loss of even one of these three states will hand the Republicans a 270+ EV win based on current polls

The VP's campaign is still in its infancy, but she is facing a similar problem to Biden before his poor debate performance booted him from the national stage - poor polling in the states that will ultimately decide the election

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/

 

[Ghost]

#Kanye2024

 

[Xzi]

There have only been a couple major polls taken since Harris secured enough delegates to become the presumptive nominee, so there's not much point in worrying about outdated data.

Hell, just look at the latest Fox poll:

 

[NostalgicMillennial]

Polls mean nothing...plus these are outdated. The only thing that matters are elections. Vote.

 

[Hanafuda]

Polls mean nothing...plus these are outdated. The only thing that matters are elections. Vote.

Polls can mean a lot, but you have to examine the sample polled, the methodology, and the track record of the pollster. And one poll taken in isolation, even from a reliable pollster, as you say, means nothing.

 

[Xzi]

Polls can mean a lot, but you have to examine the sample polled, the methodology, and the track record of the pollster. And one poll taken in isolation, even from a reliable pollster, as you say, means nothing.

They tend to start getting slightly more accurate within weeks or days of the election, but even then sometimes over-represent one specific demographic or another. They've been notoriously inaccurate the last several election cycles in the US.

 

[DuoForce]

I'm neither left nor right but I'm almost positive Kamala will win this election.

 

[Xzi]

I'm neither left nor right but I'm almost positive Kamala will win this election.

The betting markets agree with you. Age is a huge factor here, as the vast majority of Gen Z will be old enough to vote in this election. They largely do not want people with one foot in the grave representing them, and even if that wasn't an issue, Trump's messaging does not resonate with their experiences.

 

[Vetusomaru]

I'm almost positive Kamala will win this election.

How? She is unpopular as hell. Also the Trump's failed murder has risen his popularity a lot.

 

[DuoForce]

How? She is unpopular as hell. Also the Trump's failed murder has risen his popularity a lot.

I have literally zero evidence except a trust me bro.

 

[x65943]

The betting markets agree with you. Age is a huge factor here, as the vast majority of Gen Z will be old enough to vote in this election. They largely do not want people with one foot in the grave representing them, and even if that wasn't an issue, Trump's messaging does not resonate with their experiences.

How so?

The betting market actually has Trump slated to win, you could make good money betting on Kamala right now

https://electionbettingodds.com/

 

[Xzi]

How so?

The betting market actually has Trump slated to win, you could make good money betting on Kamala right now

Depends entirely on which website you look at, though I may have been seeing odds of her winning the Democratic nomination instead. As of five days ago, she's up to a 47% chance to win, per predictit.org. The US' future isn't something I'm particularly interested in gambling on, but the payouts won't stay big for long for those who are interested. The momentum is all in Harris' favor, as Republicans have nothing major to look forward to post RNC.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/ma...s-and-i-bet-kamalaphoria-has-more-room-to-run

 

[The Catboy]

Trump got shot.
The Dems need to come up something way cooler to keep up with that

 

[SeltzerMist]

These polls haven't been reliable in nearly a decade. Who are these people being polled?

Has anyone here been genuinely polled?

The polls told us that the GOP was going to have significant gains in 2022 midterm elections and 2023 special elections and we saw how that played out.

Post automatically merged: Jul 29, 2024

the Trump's failed murder has risen his popularity a lot.

Prove this. All I saw was a bunch of weirdos wear a maxi pad over their ear during that RNC cult gathering or whatever

 

[Darth Meteos]

I'm neither left nor right but I'm almost positive Kamala will win this election.

if 2016 taught me anything, it's that it ain't over until the votes are counted

 

[pustal]

Trump got shot.
The Dems need to come up something way cooler to keep up with that

Getting laid with someone in their free will, not paid and that actual find the person attractive?

Alternatively, being based and not wanting to end democracy?

 

[RedColoredStars]

Already went through this poll stupidity with x65943 and this topic is further evidence they still don't get it. Nothing to see here. Zzzzzzzzzzzzz.

 

[Dark_Ansem]

I trust lichtman over the betting markets tyvm

Post automatically merged: Jul 29, 2024

Also the Trump's failed murder has risen his popularity a lot.

Didn't move a single vote innit

 

[Darth Meteos]

if 2016 taught me anything, it's that it ain't over until the votes are counted

if 2020 taught me anything, it's that it ain't over

 

[Beaukilla]

If 2024 taught me anything, it's that Donald is old and weird