post here funny pictures

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Shall I? No? Nobody wants me to do it?

:evil: I'll get hated but do it anyway: :evil:

This is a leading question. If you want to teach your daughter about a heuristic principle sometimes used for kind of educated guessing when available data isn't sufficient for a definitive decision… then do it correctly.

If you ask "Which of those is more likely?" "Or which of those needs less assumptions?" it is mandatory to mention at least a few of the assumptions for both options. This leading question only mentions a complex assumption for one side → Conspiracy. Not the best word for the circumstances, but let's take it. A world-wide conspiracy. That is indeed a strong assumption as it requires billions of adult people to lie while finding a way to ensure kids can't see the rest. (And in fact disproving is easy).

Now a few questions for the needed assumptions for the other side, Santa is real (taking some of the widespread presentations). A single person (entity?) being able to deliver gifts to millions of houses in a single night. How long is the distance traveled? What acceleration force would he have to endure between houses? How does he fit all the material on a flying sled? Where do the things come from? Why can't I see any factory at the north pole with the help of satellites?

Indeed, the question can be answered with high probability using the famous heuristic principle. Adults lying is the likely version.
If the girl is smart she will come to the same conclusion.
 

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