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The benefits of Brexit - the future of the United Kingdom

Nightwish

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hey are profiting from transfer payments far too much.
Which is only true because of all the rules. Without the Euro, and to an extent, the common market, the countries would still have a modern industry and would be exporting competitively to the much higher valued currencies of the center (especially Germany). As is, the shifting nature of the transfers means any blip brings a lot of hardship (in internal devaluation - jobs and wages) that the transfers can no longer mask. The next step, as per Macron, is censoring news and forbidding protests - yes, they are serious problems with those, but you can't legislate them away without paving the way for tyranny.
 
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notimp

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Take away the agitational language, and I tend to agree. That said, I'm not an economist by training, and as far as things are indicated on the political level - some form of restructuring should be coming in 2020.

Macron tried to pivot France more into the economical trajectory of Germany - so that Germany would be more willing to agree to a broader unification project.

I've said since he's won the elections, that that would be the wrong direction to take the country entirely - because of people being fed up already at the time, but then - the yellow jacket movement at the moment is also seen by some as a rather "small" revolution, thats easily containable. (Partly because it doesnt have a centralized voice, really... Read Macrons letter to the french. He basically told them I'm a yellowjacket at heart as well, you see... - It was horrible.)

The one thing that does make more sense though is, that if europe wants to play any role on the global political level - and even be it just in the trade game - you need it to be unified, rather than devided. Their financial/political arm will always be stronger that way.

I'd even watch some nationalistic concepts more closely if they had any merrit to them at all. The thing is, that you cant turn back globalization. Either you face it head on - or you tend to dont matter at all in a while (unless you have some special assets or devoted interests).

Whats happening here as well, is russian and chinese interests buying themselves into the decision making process on smaller countries to then be reflected on the EU or global level. We have to tackle that as well. (Thats basically, foreign national investment in a country in a certain commercial sector becoming so important that they can shift your political decision making, or corruption.)

My political opinion at the moment is rather indistinct to begin with. I don't buy into the climate hype - as its sold to people as a common movement (deal with it on a political level). I don't buy into the - the EU is free travel, and no more wars, narrative at the moment - as I believe, that if people aren't profiting from productivity gains, none of this matters.

But I entirely buy into the "we need to hold this thing together" to have any political weight in important shifts that are happening in the future. Basically, the EU has done far too little, for far too long. This needs to change.

But the reason to be angry at them is not "immigration policy" - thats just what you use to get peoples votes, who have no idea about anything.

That principal has been proven times over.

There were elitist voices before WW2 that frustratingly voiced, that if people wanted that idiot who holds all those speeches people cheer for, they should get him, and see after two years, what they have of it...

.. and then it took a little longer than two years, because people where so into that marching stuff, that they forgot to ask questions...

Same as it ever was... ;)

Immigration actually solves parts of europes issues, not the other way around. And for work related competition, the way the domestic market is set up currently (within the EU) its akin to a race to the bottom (on wages and social security), so you dont fix that either with fewer immigrants, thats a structural issue.
 
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Taleweaver

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Hmm..I was a bit too mercyful on brexiteers the other day. On of the things thrown around was that the UK never got a Marshall plan after the second world war, and therefore was in a disadvantage. I brushed it off as "not really relevant" (hint: the EU didn't exist back then), but it seems that the guy - Kawczynski's his name - was downright lying about it : the UK not only was part of the Marshall plan but got the largest part of it to boot!
 
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Taleweaver

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John Oliver did another Brexit show.


I only got around to watching it this morning. It sums up the madness of the situation quite good.

Most striking: "brexit is like pompeii if they voted for the volcano to erupt".


In a masochistic way, it's kind of interesting to see how far the brexiteers are detached from reality. Granted: it won't be total chaos...erm...okay, it won't be total chaos FOR LONG...but WHY? There are huge damaging factors awaiting for real problems that will arise if there isn't a solution...but nobody in that bloody country seems to want to tackle those.

Brexiteers: we're against a backstop because it'll prolong us staying in the EU!
Commenter: okay...so how will a sudden hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland NOT cause problems?
Brexiteers: *flee*

Flowerist: so if custom checks are going to take longer, importing live flowers from the EU will become impossible because they'll be dead by the time they pass through
Commenter: so...when you voted for brexit, you didn't realise it might have had an impact on your business?
Flowerist: I...didn't really think about it


Christ all mighty...just call brexit quits already. Yes, it'll end the political career of just about every politician in the country. So what? I've said it before (as have others): you can just undo this whole stupid process without repercussions(1). Yes, it takes genuine courage to "chicken out" of brexit. But really: in the long run, it'd be the cowardly discussion to just follow along because you were afraid to turn back when it turns out nothing went according to pl...erm...when it turns out nothing went according to that dream of yours.




(1): okay...I won't guarantee that the many people who emigrated the country when you started this mess will return, but ey...you can't have it all.
 

Taleweaver

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A few interesting developments in this field.

It started with a handful (8, iirc) of politicians leaving labour because they didn't like that their party - the opposition, no less - wasn't in favor of remaining in the EU. Jeremy Corbyn thus far always held a somewhat similar opinion as the actual government. One I'd summarize as "I can make a better deal than May if only someone would let me".

Maybe it's fear of even more people leaving. Maybe it's fear of these politicians banding together with government deserters (there were four of these also leaving these ranks to support the EU). Maybe it's actual analysing the options. Or even actually listening to what the EU is saying. Maybe it's because it's no longer impossible (I'll get to that). But whatever the case: he now supports a second referendum.

Because that's the other thing that's moving: the deadline of the UK leaving the EU. It's no longer set at 29th of March. Well...perhaps it's better said as "it's no longer set in freaking hardcore solid stone at 29th of March", because of course nothing will happen without testing the waters. So it probably comes down to which question will be asked, because otherwise it'll probably look a bit like this:

May: okay...so: how about we delay brexit until we can tie up these unresolved issues?
Government: no!
May: hmm...but what kind of brexit shall it be, then? Further negotiations?
Government: no!
May: ...do you...perhaps want to reconsider my plan, then? I mean...I do have one, y'know.
Government: no!
May: *sigh* so...you're saying you want a hard brexit?
Government: no!
May: damnit! Then what DO you want? :angry:
Government: *silence*
Government: *firmly* we want to vote 'no'!
May: so...how about we get rid of the idea of the second referendum, then?
Government: no!
Government: erm...wait...!
May: :tpi:
 

Taleweaver

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So ... I'm kind of curious what the news papers are saying in Britain these days.

With the upcoming second vote not looking good (which is hardly surprising as it's literally THE EXACT SAME DEAL that was already rejected) and the 'leaving the eu' deadline coming awfully close, it makes the news... Surprisingly little on our side of the north sea. It's more in the line of "yeah .. Those crazy Britons are still faffing around"

They put up May attempting to turning the tables with "we ask for the EU to help us leave the EU" .. Which I can honestly not believe what was what she literally said or meant (sorry but WE didn't vote you out).
And now I'm looking at a translated article about Jeremy Hunt that puts it even weirder: he claims that the brexit is "in danger", and that if things aren't put forward, the "risk" is that it won't happen at all.

Now you all know my stance on this (which happens to be the same as every EU member) : we love you UK. So please stay. This view was at last count (2 years ago) still the stance of 48% of the UK population.

Which makes this a rather odd thing to frame it as such. I guess that mathematically speaking you can say that 48% of the people is a minority, but why are may and hunt talking as if they represent 100% of the population here? If anything, the support of brexit has waned since it became clear that brexiteers had no plan (hint : it's two years later now). So why are they talking as if nobody wants to remain in the EU to begin with?

The question shouldn't be 'why is Corbyn backing a second referendum?' but 'why did it take so long for someone to step up to this '

Here's the thing for brexiteers: do your homework in advance next time. Sell the audience what you can offer rather than a pipedream. And for fuck sake : don't boo your own prime Minister when she actually does what you want. You should've had a backed plan to begin with. I personally wouldn't like it (again : I'm all for a united Europe), but at least it'd be respected.
 

notimp

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No, thats actually how it works. Democracy follows the rule of the majority principle. So what the majority wants, is what gets done. There are fallbacks so that the minority doesnt get rolled over in the process, or that one person cannot decide everything - but thats actually how its supposed to be done.

You give your politicians a "mandate" with a public vote, so thats now what they are supposed to work towards/fight for.

You dont get to be all "self doubting" after not informing yourself what the heck you voted on, and then blame it on politicians. :)

That would be too easy.
 

spotanjo3

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Aren't politics the best? And aren't what politicians doing just grand for the majority of the people? Why can't they just make a compromise or something?

You know what ? They vote the politics and then blame on politicians. No, blame people who vote them. I am glad that I don't vote nobody for they are always the corrupt. They make me sick and disgusting. This world is gone berserk. Much worse ahead in the future.
 

the_randomizer

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You know what ? They vote the politics and then blame on politicians. No, blame people who vote them. I am glad that I don't vote nobody for they are always the corrupt. They make me sick and disgusting. This world is gone berserk. Much worse ahead in the future.

Politicians in general only look out for number one, they don't care about the general population. Then again, they never go for argumentum ad populum, never trust politicians.
 
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notimp

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Interesting Video. Haven’t seen the whole thing because it’s too long. I have to watch bits and pieces at a time.

First 6 minutes its him being a BS merchant. All he does is listing the economic changes neither he nor britain (nor the EU) can influence much, then telling people, that we should see them very positively, because there is opportunitiy in the developing world.

Then he hints at Britain seeing Africa as a chance, when Brexit was all about - well, basically xenophobia.

The interviewer is dumb as rocks.

Sticking with it... Want to hear what the former economic adviser to Boris Johnson has to say on camera.. ;)

edit: Next point the EU prevented us to be better at domestic policy (what?).

"To have a successful Brexit we have to get three things right: Our domestic policy, our relationship with the EU and our relationship with the world" - its official, that guy is an idiot. Or thinks that hes talking to idiots. Its either or.

The point he derives from that is, that its the EUs fault, that britain has neglected domestic and international politics, while in the EU. France hasn't. ;) Germany kind of has... but... ;)

I guess he's pitching a small britain can be nimble and fast acting and.... But thats not an economic strategy. Thats a sentiment he might have gotten from a movie.. ;)

No he's not, hes simply jumping from one potential argument to the next one. Now its the EUs fault, that the british companies have invested in Britain and the british (wages) people far to little over the past years. (what?)

And he thinks that the future is bright, because they have good universities, and migration is a problem, but also a good thing for an economy... So its important to have the right incentives (they already controlled the channel, they only got qualified work migration - thats supposed to grow your economy, what does he want?).

At 11 min in the guy is all over the place.

At 14 minutes in he is all about explaining Brexit in laymans terms (kick in the groint, strangulation) - he really spends some time on this, because thats all he has thought about on his tuberide over to the podcasters studio.
He puts his own hands around his own neck to illustrate.

Then he explains the backstop and the current standing on the deal and negotiations correctly, so you can watch the video for that one.

At 18 min he now lists Singapore, South Korea, Chile as glowing examples, because they can cut their own trade deals. Britain aiming to become the next Chile. Thats aspiring. (Trade deals are in your favor if your economic power is bigger. Britains currently is poor. And they are loosing the City of London as well. Good luck.)
--

At 20 minutes in hes is first talking about something of substance.

He basically states, that GB cant have more flexibility or independant tarifs on cars (germany), agricultural goods (france), and shoes (haha (Italy)), so that limits their ability to cut trade deals on services they want to offer the entire world.

To unterstand this. Those are the most important economic sectors of the biggest countries in europe, they enjoyed some form of protection for political reasons (stability mainly).

He then explains, that in the past, you cut deals with partners mainly based on "regionality" (regional closeness), but in the new world, trade is more globalized, and any idea to have a political project that would hinder you to go turbo capitalism by selling f.e. services in the agricultural industry (like financial bets on food harvests - again, citiy of london), harms Britains ability to become MAGA again.

Yes. All of that is true. But you are still assholes, if you dont care about the political projects of your neighbor countries, and complain that their biggest industries where protected against you "financially innovating them" to become more market liberal.

What an asshole...

He than explains, that Britain has to become a financial service partner (banker) to the faster growing part of the world, like india and china. And he thinks, that you all should be much more positive about that.
.--

Then he goes into the "you need that new dynamism" small swift little player that britain can be spiel.

At 32 min in uninteresting stuff, and that britain doesnt want to be part of a political project in europe again.

At 35 min in he talks about "we have to flee, because of the further integration plans france has put forward" (they don't want to pay for stability in smaller EU countries).

At 38 min in he talks about helping greece, by not wanting to have anything to do with them. Setting them free to devalue their currency. Its funny. He wants to give no help. But then he wants to put them up as a bad example of EU financial politics, and also get empathy points for telling them "you are better off on your own"? (Greece most certainly is not. It might have been, a few years ago - currently not even Varoufakis is arguing for that position...)

At 38:30 the podcaster moderator doesnt know how percentages work. TOTAL MORON CONFIRMED.

At 40 min in he states, that he (Britain) wants to flee from forming political tensions in the EU ("safety valve").

At 41:30 the IDIOT moderator uses the word sovereignty wrong, while the interviewee just says "jay" and glances over it. He knows, that hes talking to idiots.

At 43 minutes in, people should not look at the near term consequences to britain, but at the direction of travel of the EU (more integration).

At 44 min in - Britain is 5th biggest economy, we are the ones that probably could survive on our own. (And yes hes probably right. They are probably the only former EU country that could - so they decided, fuck them all...)

At 44:05 the five eyes are mentioned. Of course.

At 44:21 he wants to revive the former commonwalth (hah, the age of slavery), "cement" their relationship with nigeria, ...

That seems to be it, the rest is just recap and fluff.
 
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spotanjo3

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Politicians in general only look out for number one, they don't care about the general population. Then again, they never go for argumentum ad populum, never trust politicians.

Remember, without us and they are nothing at all. Why should some of us vote in elections? Nonsense. An election proves to be failure and always was and always will be. Why ? Politic corruption. That's 500% clear! People are still vote them and acts really dumb. They never learn anything at all but vote vote vote all the time and system still proof to be failure, indeed.
 

the_randomizer

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Remember, without us and they are nothing at all. Why should some of us vote in elections? Nonsense. An election proves to be failure and always was and always will be. Why ? Politic corruption. That's 500% clear! People are still vote them and acts really dumb. They never learn anything at all but vote vote vote all the time and system still proof to be failure, indeed.

I just can't trust the majority of politicians, it's easier for me to cynical in that regard.
 
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notimp

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Here is a few sentences paraphrasing of the great plan of the former financial adviser to Boris Johnson.

The City of London (britains financial sector) currently is defunct (they arent the financial center of the EU anymore), they want to rebuild it, by offering nations with a higher growth rate (india, china) a deal on financial services. Then they want to spread that money better than they did in the past. (Domestic policy.)

They don't want to be bound by any ethical considerations, that limit them from destroying their neighbour countries in the process.

And they want to use their military power to cut a better separation deal (in negociations of course, not by actually using it).

They want to rekindle old five eyes and commonwealth (slavery) connections. I wonder if the United Fruit Company gets reinstated... :)

And I think thats about it.

Go Britannia.

I think you all agree, that thats what you were voting for at the referendum? Or was it nothing of that, but just xenophobia. Because the economic plan actually spelled out at least is news to me. Ok, its not surprising, but still...

edit: Forgot one more thing - they've cut a deal with the US to have the biggest silicon valley outpost outside of the US in the UK.
Why that has to be situated in the UK, I don't know. Favors from friends.
 
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