Hacking Are 3DS's getting bricked more often recently?

[keldoggg]

Even thou, since we are not sure what kind of error could cause the brick, we cannot calculate any odds, since we do not know the probability of it manifesting itself. If we did know that, then the probability of a brick should be calculate on a "per use" basis, since every time you use the cart the error can occour, and not some random time lapse like a month..

Here's me thinking that because my kids carts/ROMs work now, if I don't update the firmware, everything is hunky dory?

You seem to be saying that the consoles could brick at anytime? I didn't realise that!

PS, the 'reply' with quote doesn't seem to work for me, hence the copy & paste in red.

 

[Huntereb]

Damn, this thread turned weird. Why should people care what the exact chance of bricking is? If there is a chance, why take that over small not-worthwhile features? You may be having fun with it now, but think about the future when we get Homebrew that will let us do ANY of this, at no cost. You, sadly, won't be using it, because your system will be a brick.

 

[keldoggg]

What a happy and positive person you are Huntereb

 

[Jiro2]

Incorrect. No matter how many times you flip a coin, the odds will ALWAYS be 50-50. This bricking probability has nothing to do with time, and everything to do with pure, raw numbers. So far, the odds are 95% that you are safe. This will only change based upon the number of confirmed users with bricks as opposed to those without. The length of time has nothing to do with this whatsoever.

No matter what, your premise is faulty, either way. Probability law is that it doesn't matter how many times you run the odds; the previous "roll" doesn't change the outcome of the next one. Period.

The odds of each *specific* flip of the coin coming up heads are 50/50.

The odds of *all flips* of the coin coming up heads are 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * ..... and the odds of *at least one* tail is 1 - 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * ...

In the case of bricks, you only need to get one brick for your 3DS to become useless. So the correct calculation is to multiply the odds. "The odds doesn't change" means that the odds of a brick in February are the same as the odds of a brick in January, not that the odds of a brick in a year are the same as the odds of a brick in January.

 

[cinhomartins]

Even thou, since we are not sure what kind of error could cause the brick, we cannot calculate any odds, since we do not know the probability of it manifesting itself. If we did know that, then the probability of a brick should be calculate on a "per use" basis, since every time you use the cart the error can occour, and not some random time lapse like a month..

Here's me thinking that because my kids carts/ROMs work now, if I don't update the firmware, everything is hunky dory?

You seem to be saying that the consoles could brick at anytime? I didn't realise that!

PS, the 'reply' with quote doesn't seem to work for me, hence the copy & paste in red.

I am not a developer and i have zero knowlege about programing, so here is what i am saying: People are speculating (that means: no hard evidence yet, afaik) that the lattest gateway firmware (2.02b) contains a command that will brick a 3ds using a clone cart at a random time and that this same command is inadvertently causing bricks even if you are using a legit gateway card. So, assuming all this information is true, it would be safe to also assume that the error that causes the bricking with the lattest gateway firmware could occour at any given time you use a flashcard.

I hope i clarified my point of view.

 

[osirisjem]

deleted

 

[DemiseScythe]

Pretty sure there are hundreds of users like me who have a working Gateway 2.02b install and didnt participate in that poll. I haven't seen a single issue with my firmware or 3ds in the past 3+ weeks and the use has been high. Being honest, people who don't have issues won't visit these threads as often. People with bricks will come here looking for troubleshooting 100% of the time thus those statistics themselves are heavily biased. Systems don't just brick themselves either, it is almost always user caused like improperly powering off the device and such other than the rare hardware failure. A poll of 100 voters has a sample too small for it to be worth anything considering the number of gateways and clones sold world wide.

I've spent the last few days in other sections of this forums and missed such poll. Gbatemp is much bigger than this and I just noticed this today. Unless people are specifically looking for this, they won't notice.

 

[RodrigoDavy]

RodrigoDavy: Actually your coin flipping example isn't true. You can't base the probability of the next flip on the previous flip. Each flip is a seperate instance that will give a 50/50 chance and given a "fair" flip of the coin you could end up with 10/10 heads, 10/10 tails, or a split thereof. It is totally random!

Yes it is true, and you can find the example I just gave in many math books. You can't argue that I'm basing my result on past event because when you flip two coins they are both future events and in fact I can even throw the two coins at the same time and the result will be just the one I gave

No matter what you say: Probability = (Analysed event) / (All events)

I showed my logic and calculations and if you're going to counter me at least show how you calculate that flipping two coins will give you only 50% of getting tails at least once (be it one after another or both at the same time),

That's what I thought and believe cracker! Is sort of obvious isn't it!

It's obvious neither of you payed much attention to math classes

 

[Saxer]

No, they don't. Probability does not work like that. You can flip a coin a billion times and have it land on heads, and that still has no bearing on the 50-50 chance of the next coin flip.

You are right and wrong. There is always a .5 of it landing heads, but if what you are trying to achieve is, for example, making it land on heads 10 times in a row it ISN'T .50.
Same applies for the GW, it could have a .95 of booting without bricking, but if you try to boot 10 times, 100 times or X times without bricking it won't be .95.
Remember you only need 1 fail to brick the 3ds.

 

[Huntereb]

And the pointless argument is still going, this is hilarious.

 

[CraddaPoosta]

The odds of bricking do not increase every time you turn on your 3DS. It is painfully obvious how woefully unprepared for adult life that high school has left some of you. I pity you with all my heart, and suggest that instead of worrying about video games, perhaps you should read a book. One with chapters. No pop-ups, scratch-n-sniff or pictures of any kind.

I believe in you, O Children Left Behind.

 

[Saxer]

And the pointless argument is still going, this is hilarious.

Its not pointless, Im just clarifying that if you use b2 the system will _eventually_ brick. Correcting misinformation isn't pointless.

The odds of bricking do not increase every time you turn on your 3DS. It is painfully obvious how woefully unprepared for adult life that high school has left some of you. I pity you with all my heart, and suggest that instead of worrying about video games, perhaps you should read a book. One with chapters. No pop-ups, scratch-n-sniff or pictures of any kind.


I believe in you, O Children Left Behind.

I won't argue with a teen.

 

[Huntereb]

Its not pointless, Im just clarifying that if you use b2 the system will _eventually_ brick.

Why can't we just leave it at this then?

 

[RodrigoDavy]

Why can't we just leave it at this then?

In my case, I am too stubborn and have nothing better to do.

 

[Huntereb]

In my case, I am too stubborn and have nothing better to do.

I'll give you credit for admitting something like that (Not saying I agree with you actually being stubborn), most people here just won't do that (They won't stop).

 

[CraddaPoosta]

Its not pointless, Im just clarifying that if you use b2 the system will _eventually_ brick. Correcting misinformation isn't pointless.

Incorrect, kiddo. Just because less than 5% of the Gateway users who use GBATemp forums have bricked does not in any way mean that 100% of ALL Gateway 3DS users on 2.0b2 WILL and MUST brick. You have no clue what you're talking about whatsoever. It's cute to watch you flail away, though.

 

[gamesquest1]

magikarp used splash

 

[CraddaPoosta]

It would help if his math and logic actually addressed the situation. He is applying the wrong rules and the wrong formula to this situation. You aren't talking to a child, little guy. I know precisely what I am talking about, and why the issue is so confused. But, do keep trying. As I said, I find it cute to watch pseudo-intellectuals prove that they are ignorant.

The math shown refers to a 100% probability of a brick, based solely and only on the length of time of use. That is an inaccurate formula to apply to this situation. So far, it has not been determined that time is of ANY factor whatsoever. We have verified fewer than 5 bricks on the entire GBATemp website, with more than 100 people responding that they are running a Gateway card and have not bricked.

Granted, not all of those people are running 2.0b2; I ceded that point earlier. But, to argue that ALL Gateway owners will wind up bricking, with a 100% chance, based only some ambiguous length of time, is grossly inaccurate and does not accurately provide probability for a problem that is not caused by time at all.

Do you get what I am saying? Right formula for the right situation. This is not the correct situation for that formula. You GET that, right? Of course you do. You're not stupid, are you?

 

[mr allen]

It would help if his math and logic actually addressed the situation. He is applying the wrong rules and the wrong formula to this situation. You aren't talking to a child, little guy. I know precisely what I am talking about, and why the issue is so confused. But, do keep trying. As I said, I find it cute to watch pseudo-intellectuals prove that they are ignorant.

The math shown refers to a 100% probability of a brick, based solely and only on the length of time of use. That is an inaccurate formula to apply to this situation. So far, it has not been determined that time is of ANY factor whatsoever. We have verified fewer than 5 bricks on the entire GBATemp website, with more than 100 people responding that they are running a Gateway card and have not bricked.

Granted, not all of those people are running 2.0b2; I ceded that point earlier. But, to argue that ALL Gateway owners will wind up bricking, with a 100% chance, based only some ambiguous length of time, is grossly inaccurate and does not accurately provide probability for a problem that is not caused by time at all.

Do you get what I am saying? Right formula for the right situation. This is not the correct situation for that formula. You GET that, right? Of course you do. You're not stupid, are you?

No one said that there is 100% chance of a brick. No where does the math show that there is a 100% chance. Using the .95^x equation for a chance of the chance of the 3ds not bricking, there is a horizontal asymptote at 0, meaning that there will always be a chance that the 3ds wont brick.

Also, this isn't based on the time of use but over the time used, which is a completely different thing.

 

[keldoggg]

No one said that there is 100% chance of a brick. Using the .95^x equation for a chance of the chance of the 3ds not bricking, there is a horizontal asymptote at 0, meaning that there will always be a chance that the 3ds wont brick.

Also, this isn't based on the time of use but over the time used, which is a completely different thing.

Gotta totally agree LOL