American Economy in a Tailspin

[DiscostewSM]

Huh???? What are you even taking about??

Sounds like the Cobol situation that showed just how uneducated Musk's DOGE team is, and this person not only took the bait, but went and exaggerated on it to try and make it look worse. Their ignorance only made them look foolish from trying this.

 

[urherenow]

That was not done by the president though, that was the state of Massachusetts.
"The first deportations from the United States took place in 1794 by Massachusetts, following a rush of poor Irish immigrants to the U.S. east coast, under a 1794 Massachusetts law which permitted such deportations."
"The first deportation law in the United States was the Alien Act of 1798, which allowed the president to deport any alien deemed dangerous."
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deportation_and_removal_from_the_United_States

Symantics. ICE is doing the deportations. Washington made immigration laws that applied to free white men.

 

[titan_tim]

Most US national debt is in long term bonds, and that's what short term debt issuance gets 'refinanced' into. Those debts have fixed interest rates, most adjusted only for inflation (see that link in my last for how a common US bond interest rate is calculated). The Fed changing the federal funds rate ('lowering interest rates') does not include directly changing such bonds' interest rates.

That's the key takeaway for you here: the Fed 'lowering interest rates' does not directly change US government debt interest rates.

I think your misunderstanding (possibly that video's misrepresentation) is using the Fed's federal funds rate changes as a shorthand for changing the interest rate on US government debt. They're not the same thing. They can even move in opposite directions.

If you want to know how the indirect effect happens it's like federal funds rate v > banks' lending volume/risk ^ > money supply ^

That money supply ^ step is the actual technical definition of inflation, but the vast majority uses 'inflation' to mean consumer prices ^.

Inflation, unlike the federal funds rate, is a direct factor in setting US government debt interest rates (again see that link).

Once again, another very eye-opening comment. I'll take more time to really set it all to memory, but I get the gist of the differences. Thanks for the clarification!

 

[BigOnYa]

Symantics. ICE is doing the deportations. Washington made immigration laws that applied to free white men.

Whatever bud, you're the one who said "Not a single president" and I showed that statement was false. Admit you were wrong, or whatever, I don't care really.

 

[SeltzerMist]

Whatever bud, you're the one who said "Not a single president" and I showed that statement was false. Admit you were wrong, or whatever, I don't care really.

If MAGAs could admit they were wrong they wouldn't have voted for Trump again after seeing how disastrous his first term was.

 

[Taleweaver]

Taleweaver: * I have to ask...did Trump at ANY point in his campaign mention anything about tariffs on the closest neighbors? This whole drug traficking thing isn't even pretending to be anything but a joke, so I'm presuming this is intentional. Whether it's to divert attention, to cause chaos or just for lulz I cannot say.

Yes, many times. Over and over again. People on the left were ringing the warning bells saying that tariffs are a tax on themselves, but nobody listened.

If it is, I'm sorry, but I have to repeat it with the right emphasis: did he mention anything on tariffs on the closest neighbors?
I was very well aware his intention to tariff China and some other faraway countries (and long agreed on those warning bells that it would at best be the US company that ate the extra cost), but the "idea" as it was sold was that they somehow spread cheap products onto the US so local workers become unemployed, whereas they rarely import anything in return. This was disproven in practice in his first term, but the idea refused to die.

However...I honestly can't recall anything being said about Mexico or Canada being part of the taxed countries. China? Yes. Africa? Without a doubt. The EU? Certainly. But the closest neighbors? No. Perhaps this news wasn't deemed interesting enough amid some of his other claims, but I can't recall anything tariff-related messaging from Trump in 2024 (perhaps some hints in tweets in December at best).

 

[urherenow]

Whatever bud, you're the one who said "Not a single president" and I showed that statement was false. Admit you were wrong, or whatever, I don't care really.

No you didn't. There were deportations on his watch. Cope harder. He was POTUS, right? And Massachusetts was a state? And you think that was the ONLY deportations that happened during his presidency? Get real. In fact, get a life. If he didn't then NO president did, including Trump. You can't have shit both ways.

 

[Taleweaver]

Taleweaver: Think about it this way: when the USSR fell, it created a vacuum where all the government's assets were sold dirt cheap to robber barons that would later become oligarchs.

This is an incredibly destructive canard that has been cultivated by Putin in order to rabble rouse his orcs, to ease those inclined to blame 'capitalism' for Russia's myriad social ills into his war machine. That the Western left is still clinging to it speaks for itself both on your historical susceptibility to Russian propaganda and your own confirmation bias. That you're using it here to theorize an incoherent supervillain plot for the Trump administration is stupid and counterproductive - Trump can still be an evil asshole, and more people will believe it if you aren't superimposing nonsense on top of your accusations.

Interesting viewpoint, I'll give you that. I can't really claim much of insight of this, as it mostly comes from fictional political movies like 'Lord of war' (yes, I know: "based on a true story" can mean practically anything). If that didn't happen, then I've got more questions. Like...since the Ukrain war started, one of the things the EU did was freeze billions of Russian money and assets owned by oligarchs, in an attempt to have those people assert pressure on Putin. Didn't quite work out that way (read: the amount of "death by falling out of window" skyrocketed), but I feel it underlines the truth of my claim rather than disprove it.

But okay...let's suppose you're right and such scenario didn't happen when the Berlin wall fell..

Why would it be far fetched for it to happen now? As said: I've read some books on his first term. One of the almost universally agreed claims by the interviewed persons is the incredible ignorance of Donald Trump. It wouldn't surprise me in the least that he genuinely thinks this whole tariff war will somehow end up well for US citizens (and it's just a matter of pulling through). He's not a supervillain, simply because he doesn't have the intelligence for it.
I can't make those claims for Musk. But what he's doing is going much farther than "just" stripping away regulations he doesn't like. He's firing roughly everyone without getting payed for it(1). Why would that be?
As I stated: sure, you can call me paranoid. You can call it stupid and counterproductive, and I'd gladly be convinced that I'm right. But do me a favor: argue. Convince me.

Like...I've been thinking. The first time I've heard someone utter the idea that Trump was tanking the economy was by someone named Mike Selinker(2) somewhere in his first term. I brought it up because a local article mused about it in roughly the same way. But since posting that, apparently Bernie Sanders and Adam Schiff are also openly making that assessment. Are they "stupid and counterproductive" as well?





(1): to those wondering: no, he's not the official head of DOGE (there probably isn't one). If he were payed by the government or hold a title, it would come with responsibilities or accountability. Regarding to his role, he currently has neither.
(2) the book "game theory in the age of chaos". Great read. Among others, it taught me what "tanking" actually means

 

[LagunaLoire88]

Maybe use your brain instead of letting a drug-addled billionaire sociopath tell you what to believe. The SSA like a lot of agencies uses a default birth date when the actual date is unknown or was lost in agency-to-agency transfer. It would be the same date across several thousand recipients, making it obvious that the entries were intentional. Musk is lying because Trump needs to fund his trillion-dollar handout to the rich somehow, so might as well take it from the poor and middle-class people who spent their whole lives paying into the program.

Besides, even if we set aside seniors who qualify for social security payouts, that still leaves the rest of us. Is seig heil man gonna pay me back for what I've contributed to social security so far if he cancels it? Fuck no. That's theft on a massive national scale, plain and simple.

The entries are intentional but somehow are 100% free of corruption... Right keep belieiving that.

 

[Axido]

The entries are intentional but somehow are 100% free of corruption... Right keep belieiving that.

Feel free to have your less than 1% of mistakes that can happen and do happen, because nothing is 100% certain (which honestly nobody except you claimed). Watcha gonna do with it?

 

[Hanafuda]

Talespin? That was a great show.

 

[titan_tim]

Taleweaver: * I have to ask...did Trump at ANY point in his campaign mention anything about tariffs on the closest neighbors? This whole drug traficking thing isn't even pretending to be anything but a joke, so I'm presuming this is intentional. Whether it's to divert attention, to cause chaos or just for lulz I cannot say.

If it is, I'm sorry, but I have to repeat it with the right emphasis: did he mention anything on tariffs on the closest neighbors?
I was very well aware his intention to tariff China and some other faraway countries (and long agreed on those warning bells that it would at best be the US company that ate the extra cost), but the "idea" as it was sold was that they somehow spread cheap products onto the US so local workers become unemployed, whereas they rarely import anything in return. This was disproven in practice in his first term, but the idea refused to die.

However...I honestly can't recall anything being said about Mexico or Canada being part of the taxed countries. China? Yes. Africa? Without a doubt. The EU? Certainly. But the closest neighbors? No. Perhaps this news wasn't deemed interesting enough amid some of his other claims, but I can't recall anything tariff-related messaging from Trump in 2024 (perhaps some hints in tweets in December at best).

I knew that he had, I just couldn't remember the direct quotes off the top of my head. ChatGPT to the rescue!!

Oct 2024: “If Canada and Mexico don’t stop their unfair trade practices, especially regarding tariffs on our farmers and energy, we will impose new tariffs. It’s about time they realize we’re not going to accept being taken advantage of.”

Aug 2021: “Mexico has been taking advantage of us for too long, and Canada hasn’t been much better. If they don’t negotiate fairly, they’ll face tariffs. I’ve said it before, and I’ll do it again—tariffs will be back if we’re not treated fairly.”

Jan 2021: “If Canada continues its unfair trade practices, like dairy tariffs, I will not hesitate to put tariffs on their cars. They think they can get away with it, but not anymore.”

August 2021: “I will bring tariffs back on Mexico and Canada if they continue to allow illegal immigration to flood across our borders. It’s that simple. They’ll pay the price.”

There were lots of others. He was either blaming immigration or unfair trade practices (Which he negotiated in his first term....).

 

[Xzi]

The entries are intentional but somehow are 100% free of corruption... Right keep belieiving that.

Lmao. If there was actually corruption on a large scale at the SSA, it would be billionaires benefitting from it, and Elon would be covering for it by telling you the agency is 100% clean. Again, use your fucking brain, the call is coming from inside the house.

 

[BigOnYa]

The entries are intentional but somehow are 100% free of corruption... Right keep belieiving that.

Still waiting for that proof of 100, 200, 300 year olds getting SS checks. You talk a lot of the same disinformation coming from that Lies Social site, but you can never back up any claims with proof, weird. I think that's called a puppet if I'm not mistaken.

 

[SeltzerMist]

You talk a lot of the same disinformation coming from that Lies Social site, but you can never back up any claims with proof, weird. I think that's called a puppet if I'm not mistaken.

You've described like 90% of the GBA Temp right wingers here.

 

[titan_tim]

Guess it's a good time to update the numbers here:

The S&P 500 has now gone from 6,163 to 5,074.
The DOW is now down from 44,811 to 38,314.
The Nasdaq is now down from 22,250 to 15,587.

Zero signs of slowing down! Trump is playing chicken with people's 401k's, and doesn't seem to give even a bit of a damn.

He also just posted that only the weak companies will fail. Take THAT Mom and Pop stores!! Not sure what he can say to make his supporters know that he isn't there to help them.

 

[Xzi]

Good call posting this over a month ago, was obvious he was gonna crater the economy more. Even I didn't expect him to make things as bad as they were during COVID without a pandemic to assist.

 

[titan_tim]

Good call posting this over a month ago, was obvious he was gonna crater the economy more. Even I didn't expect him to make things as bad as they were during COVID without a pandemic to assist.

It wasn't hard to see that they were going to do damage. Musk said publicly that there was going to be pain before anything gets better. That still seems to be their continuing message.

The question is: How long with they keep the pain going until they realize it's not going the way they wanted?

 

[Darth Meteos]

Surely our friends on the other side of the aisle will see their mistake now that it's been so definitively shown what a disaster these tariffs were...
I mean, eventually you've gotta stop coping and actually want to make the country better, right?

 

[DiscostewSM]

Been sort of keeping track on the one stock that I have, only because I worked for AMZN for a number of years and got RSUs, and it's already down roughly 25% from its peak right around the transition of power, and it looks to continue to fall. Been thinking of just selling them in an effort to keep as much of it as I can, but "Analyst Recommendations" suggests it is a "strong buy" right. I'm really not seeing that because the measures they use are likely not taking into account the whole burning of the economy and tariff situation.