Trump leads Kamala in nearly every swing state [Update: Trump wins the 2024 election]

[Cranesbill]

https://x.com/BlueATLGeorgia/status/1851628485728420272?s=03

Blue Georgia?? Pfft- okay buddy, someone's stuck in 2020 /j

 

[x65943]

Blue Georgia?? Pfft- okay buddy, someone's stuck in 2020 /j

Trump is only leading 2% in Georgia in aggregate polls, well within margin of error

Go back and look at 2016 polls if you think 2% means much in poll world

 

[Cranesbill]

Trump is only leading 2% in Georgia in aggregate polls, well within margin of error

Go back and look at 2016 polls if you think 2% means much in poll world

Blue Georgia?? Pfft- okay buddy, someone's stuck in 2020 /j

You see that arrow? That means joking. The future's now, old man

 

[Exidous]

Regarding Wisconsin becoming more Republican, all you have to do is look at the 2022 congressional elections and see 55 R, 40 D to see that a 15 point lead is pretty significant

Gerrymandering doesn't affect that literally 55% to 40% vote split - take 100 voters in the entire state, and only 40 voted D

It does, you're wrong on this. Look at those Wisconsin numbers you're basing this on. In 2022 the eight House seats were up for election. One district flipped from D to R, 51-48. In all of the others the incumbent won. The next closest vote share was 54-45. To put this in context, 55-45 is like South Carolina in presidential elections.

The two D seats? 76-23 and 71-26.

The gerrymandering in Wisconsin meant that in only one district were individual voters likely to feel their votes could be dispositive to the outcome, assuming they had any kind of sense of what the vote totals ultimately would be. That's about as maximally voter-disencouraging as you could get. There's no reason to add up all of those noncompetitive vote totals and treat it like a representative sample of the state. In red districts, R voters didn't feel the need to vote for the House, as much as they would if it were more competitive. In the two solitary deep blue districts, D voters felt even less need to vote for the House. And such districts were the vast majority, 7/8. To put a pin in it, there were fewer total votes in 2022 Wisconsin House races than 2018 (the last midterm, non-President election).

Johnson won reelection as an incumbent to the Senate in that same election. 50.4-49.4. That's definitely a more accurate measure of the Wisconsin electorate in 2022 because it excludes the district-based voter discouragement I described. But of course, neither the 2022 House or 2022 Senate election would likely be as probative as another Presidential election year. The same way an individual gerrymandered district motivates voters differently, a Presidential rather than midterm election motivates differently.

 

[Moe87]

It does, you're wrong on this. Look at those Wisconsin numbers you're basing this on. In 2022 the eight House seats were up for election. One district flipped from D to R, 51-48. In all of the others the incumbent won. The next closest vote share was 54-45. To put this in context, 55-45 is like South Carolina in presidential elections.

The two D seats? 76-23 and 71-26.

The gerrymandering in Wisconsin meant that in only one district were individual voters likely to feel their votes could be dispositive to the outcome, assuming they had any kind of sense of what the vote totals ultimately would be. That's about as maximally voter-disencouraging as you could get. There's no reason to add up all of those noncompetitive vote totals and treat it like a representative sample of the state. In red districts, R voters didn't feel the need to vote for the House, as much as they would if it were more competitive. In the two solitary deep blue districts, D voters felt even less need to vote for the House. And such districts were the vast majority, 7/8. To put a pin in it, there were fewer total votes in 2022 Wisconsin House races than 2018 (the last midterm, non-President election).

Johnson won reelection as an incumbent to the Senate in that same election. 50.4-49.4. That's definitely a more accurate measure of the Wisconsin electorate in 2022 because it excludes the district-based voter discouragement I described. But of course, neither the 2022 House or 2022 Senate election would likely be as probative as another Presidential election year. The same way an individual gerrymandered district motivates voters differently, a Presidential rather than midterm election motivates differently.

Your post is well detailed and I had to figure out about understand the formula that @x65943 used to determine, so not disagree with him and just want to understand about determine the number.

 

[DiscostewSM]

You can't make this stuff up.

I had to go back to this, because this sort of shows how Trump tries to take credit for things happening before he does anything. In this case, just the day before he posted this, we had the following.

On Oct. 25, the United States Copyright Office granted a copyright exemption that gives restaurants like McDonald's the “right to repair” broken machines by circumventing digital locks that prevent them from being fixed by anyone other than its manufacturer.

https://www.today.com/food/news/mcdonalds-ice-cream-machine-fix-rcna177828

 

[SeltzerMist]

Trumpers made "fuck Joe Biden" their primary slogan for at least three years, but he says "fuck you too, then" and you get all up in your feelings about it?

Bunch of sad hypocritical losers

 

[x65943]

Trumpers made "fuck Joe Biden" their primary slogan for at least three years, but he says "fuck you too, then" and you get all up in your feelings about it? Gimme a break. Dark Brandon is best Brandon, and he hit the nail on the head with his Uno reverse of Republicans' hateful/racist "joke."


Looks more like kissing, or perhaps more like a nothingburger.

pearl clutching and feigned outrage

 

[SeltzerMist]

Lots of Fuck Joe Biden and Fuck you for voting for him flags and bumper stickers were around after 2020 as well.

The party of family values.

 

[chrisrlink]

Lol use a biased program to predict the outcome and not expect it to be biased....msn needs to get their shit together...hell bet MSN said Bidan didn't call half of Americans garbage last night.

imo they are garbage for trying to elect hitler 2.0

 

[SeltzerMist]

The anti PC crowd continues to act like triggered snowflakes when liberals don't act PC towards em

 

[wartutor]

imo they are garbage for trying to elect hitler 2.0

Lmao this coming from the party that never elected their candidate. She got 0...count them again 0....long form so you get it ZERO votes and was placed in the running for president....sounds like someone is looking to turn towards communism in the near future. Half the country was denied votes in the primary all by the party screaming everyone has the right to vote.

 

[Deleted member 117573]

This didn't age well.

Then you get the garbage comment from Biden which is a cross between his senility and his anger for being muscled out by donors and DC elites.

 

[Xzi]

Then you get the garbage comment from Biden which is a cross between his senility and his anger for being muscled out by donors and DC elites.

Pretty sure it's strictly justified anger at the garbage people that support Trump. Biden will be viewed by history very fondly for stepping aside should Harris win, which seems likely. History will eviscerate Trump as the weak and insecure dementia patient he is, even if he's elected again. It's not as though his first term did anything to change that narrative, after all, only further cement it.

 

[DiscostewSM]

The MAGA complaining about Biden's "hateful" attitude towards them, and yet.....

 

[Deleted member 117573]

Guess Russia, Russia, Russia has no need to conspire against the Dems...Seems Putin is quite fond of Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris.

 

[Dark_Ansem]

Lol use a biased program to predict the outcome and not expect it to be biased....msn needs to get their shit together...hell bet MSN said Bidan didn't call half of Americans garbage last night.

So when Trump did it was OK but now you're tearing your robes about Biden, hypocrite?

Post automatically merged: Oct 31, 2024

Guess Russia, Russia, Russia has no need to conspire against the Dems...Seems Putin is quite fond of Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris.

We all know he wants Trump back.

 

[Deleted member 117573]

Biden was off his meds and escaped from the basement. I'm sure everything will work itself out. Nothing to see here (or hear?)

Putin probably sees the opportunity to cash in on Harris as the underdog on Polymarket cause he is running out of money for his war with all the crushing economic sanctions levied against Russia.

 

[Dark_Ansem]

Biden was off his meds and escaped from the basement. I'm sure everything will work itself out. Nothing to see here (or hear?)

Putin probably sees the opportunity to cash in on Harris as the underdog on Polymarket cause he is running out of money for his war with all the crushing economic sanctions levied against Russia.

Oh more hot takes for you what a surprise

 

[Moe87]

The MAGA complaining about Biden's "hateful" attitude towards them, and yet.....

EXACTLY!!! Trump isn't innocent either.

Trump supporters are well known to stigmatize Biden and Kamala supporters since Trump ran for the president in 2016.

Trump said much, much, much worse than Biden and Kamala.