Yes, it doesn't matter about the game card, the Switch being on CFW will get you banned. YMMV though, I have seen people go for months and months without being banned (and still aren't to this day), yet some as soon as they connect to the internet, they are banned.
As you can tell by these responses, it's pretty much a toss up. Of course it will increase your chances of getting banned, but it isn't certain by how much exactly. I've been using CFW since SX OS released years ago and still haven't been banned. But some people get banned quickly for doing the same thing.