Discussion The GBAtemp Crypto Currency Predictions thread

[gbadl]

Let's have a prediction thread here on gbatemp. My prediction is this...

Tether / Bitfinex was supposed to hand over documents for something like 8 charges the NYAG brought on them in 2020. The deadline was mid January so they did a document dump of 2.5 Million pages to attack / stall them and got extensions until mid February to provide other documents for the remaining charges. They may get another extension in mid February and they keep pumping bitcoin and ethereum with fake tether but I predict at some point after the deadline the crypto currency market collapses after they get shutdown.

Reasoning. The crypto market is highly leveraged garbage with estimates being 50x actually dollars invested and highly illiquid. Tether has a market cap of 25 billion at 50x leverage that is 1.25 trillion dollars in monopoly money. Market cap of all crypto currency is 1 trillion which means real dollar value of crypto is in the negative.

What are your predictions?

 

[x65943]

whoa, well you understand this stuff way better than me

Until I read this I would have said another crash at some point, with slow average gains

 

[gbadl]

Anything is possible but that's my prediction. If bitcoin prices go under something like $8000 its kind of game over because mining bitcoin is not profitable and the security of the blockchain collapses if there are less miners.

I have to correct the original post. The NYAG is the ones charging them.

 

[Taleweaver]

Okay... I can barely understand the OP (sorry), but I agree with the conclusion, albeit on a technical field. Simply put : I don't trust the blockchain on the long run.


Since crypto currencies are digital, the only way to prevent people creating bitcoins by computer backing is by keeping track of ALL transactions ever.
Say I legitimately mine one coin. That goes in the register. I pay you. That goes in the register as well. You may someone else. That ALSO goes on the register. And so on. Keeping and updating this register is basically what mining is, so that means these currencies literally cannot work if no one is mining. But worse : the register continuously grows, and requires more disk space and computing power the more people use it.
So at one point I asked a friend of mine (a programmer) how this keeps up in the long run. Either his answer is wrong or the con is literally unsustainable : he said it continuously requires better hardware. So as long as Moore's law ensures a continously growing infrastructure, it can be sustained. But if it even hiccups... What'll happen then? Will transactions fail? Take longer? I don't know.

Look... I'm no expert on this, or on currencies in general for that matter. But to me this in itself is making the whole endeavor a naive pipe dream.

There's something to be said about other criticisms as well, obviously (like... Erm... Whatever it is the OP is about). But unless I'm missing a technological solution to the above (like... A way to shrink the register without corrupting it) , crypto currencies are a naive pipe dream that simply aren't designed for its intended use.

 

[notimp]

Okay... I can barely understand the OP (sorry)

You never read, what was already posted in the politics section?

https://crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com/the-bit-short-inside-cryptos-doomsday-machine-f8dcf78a64d3

Or as the BTC is great, because now more "exchanges" will invest into marketing folks would say: All market making is good market making!

 

[stormwolf18]

Anything is possible but that's my prediction. If bitcoin prices go under something like $8000 its kind of game over because mining bitcoin is not profitable and the security of the blockchain collapses if there are less miners.

I have to correct the original post. The NYAG is the ones charging them.

That doesnt make any sense . No one will stop mining at $8k. It is still profitable for large miner. Ppl will stop mining if btc = 0, nothing else.

 

[Deleted member 546149]

I predict Tether will stay a dollar
Bitcoin to be $60000 by November
Basic Attention Token to hit a dollar by the end of the year

 

[elk1007]

I'm predicting sideways movement on BTC and ETH until the end of the month.
Crypto usually pumps at the end of the year, so here's hoping.

Papa needs a new pair of shoes!
(and some dental work lol)

 

[Stealphie]

it'll all eventually crash and burn

 

[AncientBoi]

It has already been said on the news here that Cryto currency has dropped tremendously. Glad I didn't invest in it. Or here either.

 

[Deleted member 194275]

someone necrobumped here, but I found a lot of interesting stuff here

Let's have a prediction thread here on gbatemp. My prediction is this...

Tether / Bitfinex was supposed to hand over documents for something like 8 charges the NYAG brought on them in 2020. The deadline was mid January so they did a document dump of 2.5 Million pages to attack / stall them and got extensions until mid February to provide other documents for the remaining charges. They may get another extension in mid February and they keep pumping bitcoin and ethereum with fake tether but I predict at some point after the deadline the crypto currency market collapses after they get shutdown.

Reasoning. The crypto market is highly leveraged garbage with estimates being 50x actually dollars invested and highly illiquid. Tether has a market cap of 25 billion at 50x leverage that is 1.25 trillion dollars in monopoly money. Market cap of all crypto currency is 1 trillion which means real dollar value of crypto is in the negative.

What are your predictions?

the day you posted, back in January last year, the BTC was around 34,000, now is bellow 30,000. Tether is indirectly involved in most recent crash, so I guess you were right.

About the leverage, crypto never signed the Basel deal like intentional banks did, so they can leverage as much as people believe they can. They can even evade of disclosing the ratio. If it is any good, it is subjective, but I don't like freedom for that specific metric.

I predict Tether will stay a dollar
Bitcoin to be $60000 by November
Basic Attention Token to hit a dollar by the end of the year

Tether do dropped bellow 1, that's was unexpected, wasn't it?

 

[Deleted member 546149]

someone necrobumped here, but I found a lot of interesting stuff here



the day you posted, back in January last year, the BTC was around 34,000, now is bellow 30,000. Tether is indirectly involved in most recent crash, so I guess you were right.

About the leverage, crypto never signed the Basel deal like intentional banks did, so they can leverage as much as people believe they can. They can even evade of disclosing the ratio. If it is any good, it is subjective, but I don't like freedom for that specific metric.

Tether do dropped bellow 1, that's was unexpected, wasn't it?

For like 5 minutes maybe

 

[Deleted member 194275]

For like 5 minutes maybe

little more than that, like 10 hours

 

[gbadl]

someone necrobumped here, but I found a lot of interesting stuff here



the day you posted, back in January last year, the BTC was around 34,000, now is bellow 30,000. Tether is indirectly involved in most recent crash, so I guess you were right.

About the leverage, crypto never signed the Basel deal like intentional banks did, so they can leverage as much as people believe they can. They can even evade of disclosing the ratio. If it is any good, it is subjective, but I don't like freedom for that specific metric.

Tether do dropped bellow 1, that's was unexpected, wasn't it?

Look at how a smaller Stablecoin like Terra collapsed and what it caused to the market. Now Imagine what will happen when Tether collapses. Tether was destabilizing at the same time that they had to burn about 10 Billion Tether to stabilize itself.

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/
Make sure to click MarketCap Tab and look at the 3 Month Chart.

 

[Deleted member 194275]

Look at how a smaller Stablecoin like Terra collapsed and what it caused to the market. Now Imagine what will happen when Tether collapses. Tether was destabilizing at the same time that they had to burn about 10 Billion Tether to stabilize itself.

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/
Make sure to click MarketCap Tab and look at the 3 Month Chart.

Cryptos are made by computational power, while the Dollar are made by a paper signed by the president, but in the end they're are the same: their value is based on faith, if people believe that it has value than it has. Calling a coin "stable" and building it over dollars may increase the people's faith on that coin, but that's not a new idea, developing world has been doing that for a century now to stabilize their coins.
Curious about what happens on long term to dollar based crypto? Look what happened with dollar based coins over the developing world.