When my left stick finally started wearing out after years it wasn't stick drift that got it. I just lost the ability to run in many games because the stick wouldn't fully "press" in the right direction unless I pressed on it hard. It took another year for stick drift to actually start developing, which manifested itself as the stick not fully recentering after letting go but I could get it to recenter by pressing in the opposite direction. For context I have a launch Switch and the stick drift only manifested late last year. It wasn't even noticeable in some games, those seem to have a stick deadzone baked in so small movements don't register. So I didn't bother replacing the sticks right away.
Kids in my family seem to get stick drift in less than a year. I think how rough you are with it matters a lot. And of course how much you play factors in, I don't play my Switch nearly as much as some. But there's no doubt that some kids are really rough with controllers. One of my cousins has managed to break the stick click on his right JoyCon, and then again on the left stick 2 months after I replaced them both with GuliKit hall effect sticks. I swear, hall effect sticks are wasted on that kid. I told him to be more careful, if this continues I'll rather buy a wholesale amount of the 2 dollar sticks than keep giving away my precious GuliKit sticks.