Analysts predict Kinect sales at 4 million

[Guild McCommunist]

Some people might be down on the prospect of Kinect, at least at launch with its $149 price tag, but Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian is of the belief that we'll see 4 million Kinect devices sold in the fourth quarter of 2010 alone. Lazard's previous estimate had Kinect pegged at 3 million units during the same period.

Sebastian points to what will likely be a huge ad campaign targeted towards casual gamers as one reason for the increase. He stated in an investors note (via GameSpot), "Our checks indicate that the Kinect build is on a pace of ~2M units per month, and we now believe that the mix of Xbox 360 shipments for the holidays will be more heavily weighted toward the Kinect bundle. As such, we are increasing our Kinect unit sales expectations for Q4 to 4 million worldwide, up from 3 million units previously."

Like many, however, Sebastian sees the current price as a hurdle in Microsoft's plan to get Kinect into people's homes in a big way. "While launching at $149 as a stand-alone device, we believe the better value is the Xbox 360 bundle for $299," he said. "We continue to believe that $99 would be a 'sweet spot' for Kinect, and production quantities suggest that Microsoft may be leaving open the possibility for price promotions on Kinect next year."

Kinect will be facing off against both the Wii and soon-to-be-launched PlayStation Move for the attention of casual gamers this holiday season. 4 million may or may not be considered a success for Kinect in its first two months by Microsoft, though what Kinect does in 2011 and beyond will ultimately be far more important than what it does right out of the gate.

Source

I dunno. I doubt it. But only time will tell.

 

[Theraima]

Oh come on, that wont happen in the next four quarters of a year.. And then, if lucky, it may happen some day.

 

[Hadrian]

I dont think it'll even do half that this year. Seems like people have moved on from motion control and want more traditional games. Even Nintendo are stepping up to that this year.

 

[Revolution [9]]

People are getting sick of the motion-control gimmick after the Wii, IMHO. Even when the Wii came out, people would just sit down and flick their wrist to use the Wii remote. Kinect will just be seen as another attempt of popularizing motion controls. And OMFG, it's expensive.

 

[Guild McCommunist]

]
People are getting sick of the motion-control gimmick after the Wii, IMHO. Even when the Wii came out, people would just sit down and flick their wrist to use the Wii remote. Kinect will just be seen as another attempt of popularizing motion controls. And OMFG, it's expensive.

Hey, you don't flick your wrists on the Kinect, now you just wave around like a bigger retard.

But yeah, I find many people who buy a Wii for their family end up buying it, playing it for a bit, then never touching it again. Wii Sports and what not seem fun for a bit but soon lose their novelty. And most families who buy Wii games are too retarded to actually dive deep enough into the catalog to find more hardcore games that are actually fun (like MadWorld or No More Heroes) for the seasoned gamers. I don't think families will rush out to buy a $400 Kinect bundle and I don't think people who already own a Xbox want motion controls on it (especially when they're as incredibly limited as this). Honestly, if they made it like the Move so it could actually be usable beyond a few gimmicky games, then it may sell. For now though, it's overpriced and a huge novelty that will probably lose appeal in a week.

 

[431unknown]

I'd be willing to get one, but as the launch games for it stand right now not one damn game they have shown interests me in the slightest. I like the tech inside it and it could be used for so much more, just seems that M$ toned down the launch titles to appeal more to the "casual crowd".

 

[Phr3d13]

Xbox 360 players seem to gravitate towards sports titles and fps games, imo. and i also get the impression that they'd rather use a controller they're used to, which is why 360 and xbox controllers are almost identical. if people wanted to get up they'd get a wii + fit bundle. anyone agree?

 

[nl255]

Why bother when for $50 more you can just get a Wii. If you wish, throw in a copy of Brawl and a USB hard drive and you can get all the games you want for under $350.

 

[Thoob]

I'd be surprised if it sells 4,000 never mind 4 million.

 

[KingVamp]

]
People are getting sick of the motion-control gimmick after the Wii, IMHO. Even when the Wii came out, people would just sit down and flick their wrist to use the Wii remote. Kinect will just be seen as another attempt of popularizing motion controls. And OMFG, it's expensive.

I like motion-controls

Hopefully it be on there more powerful console with more hardcore games called SWII aka Super Wii

I guess natal may have a chance at 2 million?

 

[Bladexdsl]

not gonna happen! i can tell you right now no one wants this in australia and usa doesn't seem to really care about it either. only people who have shown any interest so far is europe. i don't know what japan thinks of it but if it's anything like this:

than it won't sell there either!
Sebastian is an idiot prob paid by M$ to say this it also costs nearly as much as the friggin xbox!

 

[nando]

i was at a bar a couple weeks ago and this one guy was totally doing the dance routine from the E3 presentation. it was totally lol.

i can imagine i can look forward to some synchronized dance moves from random xbox nerds.

 

[RupeeClock]

My brother works at gamestation, and he thinks that the Kinect will have a buttload of sales during the christmas season, and then a lot of returns/trade ins when it's over.

I honestly think that's possible.

 

[tk_saturn]

Hey, you don't flick your wrists on the Kinect, now you just wave around like a bigger retard.

No worse than people singing on a Microphone Lips, SingStar style.

It only takes a few second on Youtube to find one...

 

[Slyakin]

I would eat my hat (all of them) if they managed to sell that many in A SINGLE FUCKING QUARTER of the year.

Sure, launch day sells maybe high (I might get one if I find 150 dollars on the ground

) but I don't see much of a life for it. :/

 

[ZAFDeltaForce]

I highly doubt it's gonna take off; the Wii has probably satiated the public's appetite for motion play. It's turning into a gimmick now.

 

[ProtoKun7]

Nintendo: We've revolutionised the gaming industry, with our new motion controlled console, the Wii!
Ooh, let's get that!

Years later...
Microsoft: We've stolen developed our own motion control system, the Kinect! We'll charge through the nose for an add-on, or you can buy a new console and get that too!
...Well, uh... :|

I am seriously interested in seeing how many units this does actually sell.

 

[Deleted_171835]

That's bullshit.
Kinect is not going to sell that much. People who wanted motion controls would have purchased a Wii already.

 

[VashTS]

1 million at most. its a novelty and will die off quick...there are only so many games you can make with it. they need to have an ace up their sleeve. something we don't know about yet.