[POLL] 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

[UltraSUPRA]

yes, if my ideology fit the hallmarks of fascism.

1. Powerful and continuing nationalism
2. Disdain for human rights
3. Identification of enemies as a unifying cause
4. Rampant sexism
5. Controlled mass media
6. Obsession with national security
7. Religion and government intertwined
8. Corporate power protected
9. Labor power suppressed
10. Disdain for intellectual and the arts
11. Obsession with crime and punishment
12. Rampant cronyism and corruption
13. Disdain for Intellectuals and the arts
14. Fraudulent elections

1. That's a good thing.
2. Human rights don't exist.
3. Like ANTIFA? Who use their hatred of right-wingers as a unifying cause?
4. Modern feminism is sexist.
5. CNN, MSNBC, Huffington, NYT, WaPo, Atlantic...
6. That's a good thing.
7. When?
8. When?
9. The harder you work, the richer you are.
10. That explains why we've had to change our education system so much and add nonsensical filler like common core.
11. Kamala Harris is a cop.
12. Of what? Our education system? Mainstream media? Hollywood?
13. You posted the same point twice, nimrod.
14. Always trust the USPS to throw away the ballots that you don't want!

 

[omgcat]

1. That's a good thing.
2. Human rights don't exist.
3. Like ANTIFA? Who use their hatred of right-wingers as a unifying cause?
4. Modern feminism is sexist.
5. CNN, MSNBC, Huffington, NYT, WaPo, Atlantic...
6. That's a good thing.
7. When?
8. When?
9. The harder you work, the richer you are.
10. That explains why we've had to change our education system so much and add nonsensical filler like common core.
11. Kamala Harris is a cop.
12. Of what? Our education system? Mainstream media? Hollywood?
13. You posted the same point twice, nimrod.
14. Always trust the USPS to throw away the ballots that you don't want!

yup, sounds like fascism to me. you just decided to check mark all the boxes on your own. smart move.

 

[UltraSUPRA]

yup, sounds like fascism to me. you just decided to check mark all the boxes on your own. smart move.

Did you read what I posted past the first two things?

 

[omgcat]

Did you read what I posted past the first two things?

yeah, and it's all laughable. like get a room with 100 people in it and say that shit with a straight face and see how far you get.

"working harder means you get richer" tell that to people working 3 jobs to get by.

also i keep hearing about this mystical ANTIFA, but no one can point to a leader, or any sort of manifesto. sounds like a boogeyman to me.

on the other hand we have the people who attempted to kidnap the MI governor, who had a manifesto.

maybe people here can see a common element among these people.

fuck anybody who doesn't call these shitheads domestic terrorists.

 

[Hanafuda]

yeah, and it's all laughable. like get a room with 100 people in it and say that shit with a straight face and see how far you get.

"working harder means you get richer" tell that to people working 3 jobs to get by.

also i keep hearing about this mystical ANTIFA, but no one can point to a leader, or any sort of manifesto. sounds like a boogeyman to me.

on the other hand we have the people who attempted to kidnap the MI governor, who had a manifesto.

maybe people here can see a common element among these people.

fuck anybody who doesn't call these shitheads domestic terrorists.

None of those dumb fucks could even spell manifesto if they tried.

ANTIFA has been around since the 1930's. It's organized, but decentralized. And everyone knows what they're about.




Check this out, pretty funny really. Hindenburg, I mean Biden, takes his mask down so he can cough in his hand. Glorious.

You can't make this up.

Joe Biden just removed his mask to cough in his hand.

Talk about unsanitary! pic.twitter.com/4rwJvHA3LS

— Steve Guest (@SteveGuest) October 9, 2020

 

[gregory-samba]

1. There's an 85% chance Biden is going to win the electoral college. If the polls are right, Biden is going to win the popular vote by a larger margin than Obama beat McCain by, and that was a blowout.

As I already stated that would be unfortunate.

2. Who do you mean by perverted people?

Anyone that supports identity politics.

3. Why shouldn't we offer illegal immigrants, particularly those who were brought here as children, a pathway to citizenship?

The children are adults who smuggled them into the country responsibility and anyone in the country illegally needs to be deported.

4. Doesn't it make more sense to treat drug addiction rather than prosecute it?

That depends on the type of drug and the mental state of the user. I believe if they are harming themselves by taking deadly drugs they should be put into a mental institution.

5. I don't know why you say criminals will be allowed to run rampant, since crime will still be illegal, by definition.

The Liberals want to get rid of private prisons and bail. That will make it more of a slap on the wrist for criminals who will not stop breaking the law. The revolving door will just spin around faster allowing the criminals to be on our streets.

6. Shouldn't welfare be available for the poor and anybody else who needs it?

People that cannot work due to disability or people who are older and have already worked their entire lives are the only two groups that should be able to live off of welfare. For anyone that is having a hard time some assistance should be available while they go get a job. If you’re one drugs, don’t want to work, are in the country illegal or simply want to leech off the government you should not be given any sort of benefits.

7. Why won't raising taxes on the rich to pay for the Green New Deal help? Shouldn't we be doing what he can to mitigate global warming and climate change? It's arguably the most important issue.

Climate change or whatever the hell you’re calling it this decade is also caused by things we simply cannot control. Sure, it’s good not to pollute the environment, but if you think we can control the global climate you’re grasping at air. Making the current government bigger and giving them more control over our lives won’t result in our quality of life getting any better.

 

[RandomUser]

so you really think rape and interrupting are the same thing? that's gonna be a yikes from me.

Boy, you sure purposely took that out of context.
Why are people such a hypocrite?

 

[Deleted member 326676]

yeah, and it's all laughable. like get a room with 100 people in it and say that shit with a straight face and see how far you get.

"working harder means you get richer" tell that to people working 3 jobs to get by.

also i keep hearing about this mystical ANTIFA, but no one can point to a leader, or any sort of manifesto. sounds like a boogeyman to me.

on the other hand we have the people who attempted to kidnap the MI governor, who had a manifesto.

maybe people here can see a common element among these people.

fuck anybody who doesn't call these shitheads domestic terrorists.

 

[Hanafuda]

maybe people here can see a common element among these people.

A common element ... let's see ...

At least one of these guys is a Trump-hating anarchist.

One other has taken part in BLM protests, because he was angry about police causing the death of George Floyd.

A 3rd one goes online to oppose racism and calls government the enemy.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...81751a-0a65-11eb-9be6-cf25fb429f1a_story.html

One of alleged plotters, 23-year-old Daniel Harris, attended a Black Lives Matter protest in June, telling the Oakland County Times he was upset about the killing of George Floyd and police violence.

Yes, I'm starting to see some loose common ground with these guys. They all hate the government, the law, and authority.

What I'm not seeing as common ground is that they are the boogie man 'white supremacists,' or that they're 'right wing', or that they've been inspired in any way by any Republicans including Trump. One of them explicitly calls Trump a tyrant and the enemy.

Nice try though.

 

[Deleted member 326676]

fivethirtyeight's probability forecast currently has Biden winning the Electoral College by a nearly 2-1 margin (344-194). Trump still trails Biden by over 10 points in aggregate polling.

They also have give the Democrats a 68% chance to take over the Senate.

With only 3 weeks left to go, can the Republicans turn things around?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/

 

[Lacius]

If the election were held today, fivethirtyeight's probability forecast has Biden winning the Electoral College by a nearly 2-1 margin (344-194). Trump still trails Biden by over 10 points in aggregate polling.

They also have give the Democrats a 68% chance to take over the Senate.

With only 3 weeks left to go, can the Republicans turn things around?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/

This isn't entirely correct. The projection is, on average, Biden will win approximately 344 electoral votes on November 3, but that's not "if the election were held today." There's still a level of uncertainty the model takes into account when coming up with those numbers. If the election were held today, the projected electoral votes won could be higher than that.

Put another way, the model currently gives Biden an 85% chance of winning the election November 3, but most of that uncertainty comes from the election being several weeks away. If the election were held today, the model would give Biden about a 95% chance of winning (that would be the old "now cast" projection that oddly doesn't exist anymore). I only know because he said it in his most recent podcast.

 

[Deleted member 326676]

This isn't entirely correct. The projection is, on average, Biden will win approximately 344 electoral votes on November 3, but that's not "if the election were held today." There's still a level of uncertainty the model takes into account when coming up with those numbers.

Put another way, the model currently gives Biden an 85% chance of winning the election November 3, but most of that uncertainty comes from the election being several weeks away. If the election were held today, the model would give Biden about a 95% chance of winning (that would be the old "now cast" projection that oddly doesn't exist anymore). I only know because he said it in his most recent podcast.

Nicely done, Lacius.

I was actually prepared to point that out in the event someone challenged me why Biden is leading Trump by 10 points on one page, but only 8 points on the other. Biden's win probability is currently at 85%, but if the election were held tomorrow -- quoting myself here -- that probability would shoot up to roughly 99% since Biden's aggregate polling is over 10 points. It's only at 85% due to the uncertainty that you mentioned.

Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points:

0-1 points: just 6%!
1-2 points: 22%
2-3 points: 46%
3-4 points: 74%
4-5 points: 89%
5-6 points: 98%
6-7 points: 99%

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 2, 2020

 

[Lacius]

Nicely done, Lacius.

I was actually prepared to point that out in the event someone challenged me why Biden is leading Trump by 10 points on one page, but only 8 points on the other. Biden's win probability is currently at 85%, but if the election were held tomorrow -- quoting myself here -- that probability would shoot up to roughly 99% since Biden's aggregate polling is over 10 points. It's only at 85% due to the uncertainty that you mentioned.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301190941110341632

Yeah, that's mostly right. If Biden actually gets +10 in the popular vote, then he's got an over 99% chance of having won the electoral college. Since the election is three weeks out though, we don't actually know how he's going to do. He's polling at +10 now, but the model predicts he will only get about +8 on November 3. He loses about -1.3 for the uncertainty of it being about three weeks away, and he loses about -0.7 due to fundamentals (economy pre-COVID, etc.), possible polling error, etc. The longer he keeps that +10 in the polls between now and the election, the higher his predicted popular vote margin will become, and the higher his odds.

1. Given the election isn't until November 3, Biden's chances of winning the electoral college are about 85%. 10% of that uncertainty comes from the time between now and the election. The other 5% uncertainty comes from possible polling error, the possibility of winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college, fundamentals, etc.
2. If the election were held today, Biden's chances of winning the electoral college are about 95%. That 5% uncertainty comes from possible polling error, the possibility of winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college, fundamentals, etc.

 

[omgcat]

A common element ... let's see ...

At least one of these guys is a Trump-hating anarchist.

One other has taken part in BLM protests, because he was angry about police causing the death of George Floyd.

A 3rd one goes online to oppose racism and calls government the enemy.

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...81751a-0a65-11eb-9be6-cf25fb429f1a_story.html





Yes, I'm starting to see some loose common ground with these guys. They all hate the government, the law, and authority.

What I'm not seeing as common ground is that they are the boogie man 'white supremacists,' or that they're 'right wing', or that they've been inspired in any way by any Republicans including Trump. One of them explicitly calls Trump a tyrant and the enemy.

Nice try though.

you're citing something from a single source, about a single person in a group of 11+. that one guy might have been an off the shelf anarchist, but from what has been released, at least 5 of them are involved with the boogaloo movement, with a bunch of them espousing alt-right rhetoric.

"Caserta’s activity on YouTube further suggests his worldview: He subscribed to Project Veritas, an outlet known for pushing right-wing disinformation, and the channel run by Ben Shapiro, also considered by some experts to be a gateway to online radicalization, among others. Caserta’s Facebook likes included one for the page “Michigan Revolution,” whose profile photo shows a man dressed in Revolutionary War–era clothing and holding an assault rifle paired with the text “NEW AMERICAN REVOLUTION.”

https://www.motherjones.com/politic...ernor-celebrated-violent-far-right-extremism/

“Several of the men charged (with conspiring to kidnap Whitmer) have histories of anti-government organizing, as well as interest in countering what they saw as an ‘uprising’ against President Donald Trump, according to their online profiles and comments.”

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/whitmer-conspiracy-allegations-tied-boogaloo-movement-n1242670

more information is needed, but when you have a bunch of guys in a group called the "wolverine watchmen", i don't think they're gonna be a bunch of "antifa" members.

 

[Lacius]

A common element ... let's see ...

At least one of these guys is a Trump-hating anarchist.

One other has taken part in BLM protests, because he was angry about police causing the death of George Floyd.

A 3rd one goes online to oppose racism and calls government the enemy.

View attachment 228025
View attachment 228026
View attachment 228027
View attachment 228028
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...81751a-0a65-11eb-9be6-cf25fb429f1a_story.html





Yes, I'm starting to see some loose common ground with these guys. They all hate the government, the law, and authority.

What I'm not seeing as common ground is that they are the boogie man 'white supremacists,' or that they're 'right wing', or that they've been inspired in any way by any Republicans including Trump. One of them explicitly calls Trump a tyrant and the enemy.

Nice try though.

I think the only thing that matters is Trump's responses to all this were the same talking points the alleged kidnappers were spouting.

 

[KingVamp]

Unlikely to happen this election, but I find it interesting that Texas seems to becoming a swing state.

 

[UltraSUPRA]

Unlikely to happen this election, but I find it interesting that Texas seems to becoming a swing state.

Blame the Californians.

 

[Lacius]

Unlikely to happen this election, but I find it interesting that Texas seems to becoming a swing state.

You're right it's unlikely this year, but it should be noted that the unlikely odds of Biden winning Texas in 2020 are about the same as Trump's unlikely odds of winning the electoral college in 2016.

Trump is only ahead by about +1.7 in Texas right now.

Blame the Californians.

What are you blathering on about now?

 

[UltraSUPRA]

What are you blathering on about now?

The people moving from California to Texas and taking their politics with them.

I don't live in Texas, but I've heard that happening.

 

[Lacius]

The people moving from California to Texas and taking their politics with them.

I don't live in Texas, but I've heard that happening.

The change in Texas' politics is due to multiple factors, but the primary factor is likely Texas' increase in its Latinx population.