Well...the title basically says it all. And since there's no objective way to look at this, I gotta start with something that some tempers don't seem to get through their skull:
I'M NOT A FUCKING DEMOCRAT, OKAY?
I'm from Belgium. The average democrat is a "regular" rightwing citizen on this part of the world.
True, for the last three years I've pissed all over Trump's agenda (or lack thereof). Partially for selfish reasons, mostly because he's an idiot with...erm...to say it flattering: some deluded followers. He spits out a lie, it get debunked, his followers instantly mistrust the debunkers ("he must be a democrat and therefore a liar!"). It started with 'alternative facts', went on to a threatening nuclear war with North Korea, then a huge-ass government shutdown over a broken campaign promise, then the Mueller investigation on his shady pre-election campaign and finally an impeachment for a crime during his presidency. I didn't think it could be topped, because even though I'm leaving out some smaller embarrassing snipplets those other scandals are kids play in comparison ("okay, so he drew on a weather map, contradicting his own weather service? Aaaaawwwwwww...that's so cute for those not from the region").
And now all that IS topped. USA survived quite well without a leader so far...but it may be too late now.
Let me first state: our European governments aren't that much better. Sure, it was in the news, but there's this certain inertia when it comes to the news that, ironically, US citizens probably know too well: "whatever's on the news doesn't concern me". there's probably some name for this syndrome (in Dutch, it's called "dat is ver van mijn bed", translated to "it's too far from my bad to matter", but I've got no clue how you'd call it). There's still an active thread mocking "the media" on overhyping the virus.
Unfortunately for the USA, the rest of the world has quality newspapers and a government worth a damn. When the details of the virus became known and it turned out that the outbreak in Italy was severe, Belgium went into lockdown. At that time (18th of March), we barely had a handful of contagions. But I've pissed on our own politicians as well in the past, but I've got to hand it to them: they acted when it mattered. Our Flemish and Wallonian country parts are politically so different it's not even that different from democrats and republicans, but all political or even langual differences(1) were immediately swept aside. Gone were "typical Belgian" arrangements where rules applied to this city or province but not in others. The lockdown was nationwide, was severe and put into full effect about 12 hours after announcement.
Granted: hindsight is 100%. But even though we were faster to act than e.g. the Netherlands or the UK (I'll get to those clowns), the days are tense over here. Everyone on television urges people to stay at home as much as possible. Celebrities, politicians, royals...everyone.
I gotta tell you: it's pretty surreal having to stay at home (and thus fully realizing the coronian danger) and then see the president of the united states first minimalize things, and then pull out a random date out of his ass when this'll all be over (Easter? Why Easter?).
It's at that point that stats are starting to become relevant. It's not for masochistic reasons that my girlfriend and me are glued to the television each day, eager to hear about the new infections and deaths...it's because that number still keeps rising! Worse: virologists have sadly predicted that there'll be a time where it would keep doing that for some time after the shutdown, for the simple reason that the incubation period means people in shutdown may not realise they're infected in the first place.
...and we may be a tad optimistic here(2), but it seems like we are hitting the peak. Because for all the snorting and scowling Belgians do at their government, we know they aren't messing around when it comes to serious matters (and oh, boy...this is most likely the most serious thing we've encountered since the last world war). We stay at home and avoid personal contact. When we're (very) ill, we go to the emergency hospital. Things like jobs and costs are of no concern.
Now then...the USA. I've never actually BEEN there, but the way I perceive it, it's got the short end on a great many amount of sticks... (note: correct me when I'm wrong)
* your health care system is totally inadequate. Without health insurance from your job, you end up paying through the nose for even the simplest of actions. Result: people will be less inclined to go to the hospital at the first signs, but as this doesn't just "goes away" they'll go to the hospitals when they're already in the worst kind of shape.
* your preparations were worthless. The pandemic team fired (and not replaced) years ago, only a third of the federal employees who watched instructions on what to do in case of a pandemic still in service and a president who lives in denial are all bad omens.
* trust in authorities is key in these sorts of situations. Fauci seems like a decent guy, but he can't unite a country that's been at it's own throat for years. A great amount of people might know that fox is but a propaganda machine for Trump, but the minority not in that category is enough to cause problems. That's why it would be adament for Trump to follow Fauci's lead rather than spew lies as if his opinion is somehow in the same league.
* no division or partizanship but nationalism. Sort of the same point but on a national level. To this day, Trump not only refuses to take a lead over the governors of the state, but seems to play them out against them. Okay: that last part might not be active, but really: companies are sharks everywhere. When I hear reports on face masks being withheld despite being properly ordered, I smell price gauging ("okay, you've got a decent order. But why would we deliver to YOU if HE pays me more?"). You'll need active discouraging on that sort of business and make sure it's not hollow words but acts as well(3)
Unfortunately, the time to solve these issues is (mostly) up. At this point, the USA is the world's worst pupil so far in reaction to this crisis. The scale of increase is larger than Italy and Spain. And...at this point I can't be bothered to argue clowns who disagree. Why should I? I fucking HOPE they are right. Because the situation in Italy and Spain is beyond human. These are well developed countries with decent health care systems and a healthy population. Now they're overcrowded. Patients line up in corridors because there aren't enough beds. Ventilators that help the breathing are a massive shortage. One nurse even committed suicide because she caught the virus and accidentally spread it around.
Does this sound familiar? Why yes, it IS the same situation as New York. But as harsh as that is...why isn't the rest of the country taking notice? The EU states are far less connected, but we help out the countries in need pretty much without question. But in the US? Besides these horror stories from NY, the beaches in Florida are still open for spring break. Am I missing something here? Is this really a scam to get rid of old people or something? Heck...I might hate Trump, but even I don't want him to get infected.
The most recent prediction by experts is between 100'000 and 240'000 deaths in the USA. Again: at this point I don't really give a damn whether or not you heard someone calling that number exagerated. I'm here to tell you that your virus increase is sharper than both Italy and Spain. If your health care system was as good as them you'd have similar results in a couple weeks tops. As it is...it'll be worse.
And sorry for being dr. Doom here, but I didn't call this piece "Is America screwed?" because of these deaths. It's because the virus has a mortality rate of 1 to 3.4%, depending on how you count it. The latter number is an estimate based on diseased patients vs all tested patients...but due to shortages, ONLY PEOPLE SICK ENOUGH TO GO TO A HOSPITAL GET TESTED! And that means you'll be looking at roughly FIFTY times that amount that need to be hospitalized, so between five and ten million people. All within less than a month from now.
I...have to admit I don't know where that number is based on. I really hope it's taking everything into account, because when a hospital (or rather: all hospitals) have to take on this amount of people, medical errors are prone to happening.
My company lived through the 2016 bombings in Brussels relatively easy. Not that it WAS easy (we own many stores in the airport), but because we're a multinational, the other countries took our fall. This is already much worse, exactly because it's not just affecting ALL our stores but all the ones in the rest of Europe as well. The economic collapse on this will be huge, and that is calculated if the corona virus itself will suddenly disappear worldwide today (which it won't...the fallout could take years before everything is even remotely back to normal).
So...there's that. Huge ass precautions we should be making just to do basic work...provided our companies don't go belly-up before that. Don't get me wrong: it'll be tough for every nation on this planet. But I'm (unfortunately) also confident it'll strike hardest at the country that gets hit hardest with the virus.
*sigh*
I'll quit making political posts. Sure, I can say "guess you should have picked a competent leader when you had the chance, eh?"...but I can't be bothered anymore. I (and the rest of Belgium with me) have my (our) own shit to take care of. At best, in about 10 years we'll look back at this and compare this outbreak to the fall of the Berlin wall (except it ushered in the end of capitalism when it was at its worst). At worst...I don't want to think about it...
EDIT: right...totally forgot about the UK (thanks @FAST6191 ). When I heard about their initial strategy, I thought it was a grimm april fool's joke. Because their plan came down to "we're not going to do anything". Sure it had some science fiction story about it, but again: it came down to "not doing anything". Yes, they've changed course, but I honestly can't fathom why they'd think that nonsense would work in the first place. I mean...really?
The idea was something called "herd immunity". If enough people get sick (and get better), they're later better equipped with dealing with the disease. As such, they would have an economic advantage over countries that went into hiding and that could STILL catch the virus afterward because being in hiding obviously doesn't grant you immunity.
Perhaps on paper this sort of practice could be defended, but this is A DEADLY VIRUS. Even with a small mortality rate, you end up with many thousands of deaths, which would have been quite literally sacrificed for an economy that is at best a "same old, same old". An even worse flaw is the incredibly huge infection rate, which would overload any medical facility attempting to pursuit that strategy.
Again: they've walked away from that excuse of a strategy. Not sure if they expect a pat on the back of not remaining retarded, but ey...at least they're doing better now.
(1): Flanders speaks Dutch, Wallonia is French
(2): the original lockdown was until april 5th. But it's been extended for two more weeks, and it's likely that two more weeks will be added (at least partial)
(3): extra note: this is much easier said than done. In Belgium, for example, the police are considering a strike because they can't get face masks. However, the politicians stay firm: the medical sector needs them first and foremost.
I'M NOT A FUCKING DEMOCRAT, OKAY?
I'm from Belgium. The average democrat is a "regular" rightwing citizen on this part of the world.True, for the last three years I've pissed all over Trump's agenda (or lack thereof). Partially for selfish reasons, mostly because he's an idiot with...erm...to say it flattering: some deluded followers. He spits out a lie, it get debunked, his followers instantly mistrust the debunkers ("he must be a democrat and therefore a liar!"). It started with 'alternative facts', went on to a threatening nuclear war with North Korea, then a huge-ass government shutdown over a broken campaign promise, then the Mueller investigation on his shady pre-election campaign and finally an impeachment for a crime during his presidency. I didn't think it could be topped, because even though I'm leaving out some smaller embarrassing snipplets those other scandals are kids play in comparison ("okay, so he drew on a weather map, contradicting his own weather service? Aaaaawwwwwww...that's so cute for those not from the region").
And now all that IS topped. USA survived quite well without a leader so far...but it may be too late now.
Let me first state: our European governments aren't that much better. Sure, it was in the news, but there's this certain inertia when it comes to the news that, ironically, US citizens probably know too well: "whatever's on the news doesn't concern me". there's probably some name for this syndrome (in Dutch, it's called "dat is ver van mijn bed", translated to "it's too far from my bad to matter", but I've got no clue how you'd call it). There's still an active thread mocking "the media" on overhyping the virus.
Unfortunately for the USA, the rest of the world has quality newspapers and a government worth a damn. When the details of the virus became known and it turned out that the outbreak in Italy was severe, Belgium went into lockdown. At that time (18th of March), we barely had a handful of contagions. But I've pissed on our own politicians as well in the past, but I've got to hand it to them: they acted when it mattered. Our Flemish and Wallonian country parts are politically so different it's not even that different from democrats and republicans, but all political or even langual differences(1) were immediately swept aside. Gone were "typical Belgian" arrangements where rules applied to this city or province but not in others. The lockdown was nationwide, was severe and put into full effect about 12 hours after announcement.
Granted: hindsight is 100%. But even though we were faster to act than e.g. the Netherlands or the UK (I'll get to those clowns), the days are tense over here. Everyone on television urges people to stay at home as much as possible. Celebrities, politicians, royals...everyone.
I gotta tell you: it's pretty surreal having to stay at home (and thus fully realizing the coronian danger) and then see the president of the united states first minimalize things, and then pull out a random date out of his ass when this'll all be over (Easter? Why Easter?
).It's at that point that stats are starting to become relevant. It's not for masochistic reasons that my girlfriend and me are glued to the television each day, eager to hear about the new infections and deaths...it's because that number still keeps rising! Worse: virologists have sadly predicted that there'll be a time where it would keep doing that for some time after the shutdown, for the simple reason that the incubation period means people in shutdown may not realise they're infected in the first place.
...and we may be a tad optimistic here(2), but it seems like we are hitting the peak. Because for all the snorting and scowling Belgians do at their government, we know they aren't messing around when it comes to serious matters (and oh, boy...this is most likely the most serious thing we've encountered since the last world war). We stay at home and avoid personal contact. When we're (very) ill, we go to the emergency hospital. Things like jobs and costs are of no concern.
Now then...the USA. I've never actually BEEN there, but the way I perceive it, it's got the short end on a great many amount of sticks... (note: correct me when I'm wrong)
* your health care system is totally inadequate. Without health insurance from your job, you end up paying through the nose for even the simplest of actions. Result: people will be less inclined to go to the hospital at the first signs, but as this doesn't just "goes away" they'll go to the hospitals when they're already in the worst kind of shape.
* your preparations were worthless. The pandemic team fired (and not replaced) years ago, only a third of the federal employees who watched instructions on what to do in case of a pandemic still in service and a president who lives in denial are all bad omens.
* trust in authorities is key in these sorts of situations. Fauci seems like a decent guy, but he can't unite a country that's been at it's own throat for years. A great amount of people might know that fox is but a propaganda machine for Trump, but the minority not in that category is enough to cause problems. That's why it would be adament for Trump to follow Fauci's lead rather than spew lies as if his opinion is somehow in the same league.
* no division or partizanship but nationalism. Sort of the same point but on a national level. To this day, Trump not only refuses to take a lead over the governors of the state, but seems to play them out against them. Okay: that last part might not be active, but really: companies are sharks everywhere. When I hear reports on face masks being withheld despite being properly ordered, I smell price gauging ("okay, you've got a decent order. But why would we deliver to YOU if HE pays me more?"). You'll need active discouraging on that sort of business and make sure it's not hollow words but acts as well(3)
Unfortunately, the time to solve these issues is (mostly) up. At this point, the USA is the world's worst pupil so far in reaction to this crisis. The scale of increase is larger than Italy and Spain. And...at this point I can't be bothered to argue clowns who disagree. Why should I? I fucking HOPE they are right. Because the situation in Italy and Spain is beyond human. These are well developed countries with decent health care systems and a healthy population. Now they're overcrowded. Patients line up in corridors because there aren't enough beds. Ventilators that help the breathing are a massive shortage. One nurse even committed suicide because she caught the virus and accidentally spread it around.
Does this sound familiar? Why yes, it IS the same situation as New York. But as harsh as that is...why isn't the rest of the country taking notice? The EU states are far less connected, but we help out the countries in need pretty much without question. But in the US? Besides these horror stories from NY, the beaches in Florida are still open for spring break. Am I missing something here? Is this really a scam to get rid of old people or something? Heck...I might hate Trump, but even I don't want him to get infected.
The most recent prediction by experts is between 100'000 and 240'000 deaths in the USA. Again: at this point I don't really give a damn whether or not you heard someone calling that number exagerated. I'm here to tell you that your virus increase is sharper than both Italy and Spain. If your health care system was as good as them you'd have similar results in a couple weeks tops. As it is...it'll be worse.
And sorry for being dr. Doom here, but I didn't call this piece "Is America screwed?" because of these deaths. It's because the virus has a mortality rate of 1 to 3.4%, depending on how you count it. The latter number is an estimate based on diseased patients vs all tested patients...but due to shortages, ONLY PEOPLE SICK ENOUGH TO GO TO A HOSPITAL GET TESTED! And that means you'll be looking at roughly FIFTY times that amount that need to be hospitalized, so between five and ten million people. All within less than a month from now.
I...have to admit I don't know where that number is based on. I really hope it's taking everything into account, because when a hospital (or rather: all hospitals) have to take on this amount of people, medical errors are prone to happening.
My company lived through the 2016 bombings in Brussels relatively easy. Not that it WAS easy (we own many stores in the airport), but because we're a multinational, the other countries took our fall. This is already much worse, exactly because it's not just affecting ALL our stores but all the ones in the rest of Europe as well. The economic collapse on this will be huge, and that is calculated if the corona virus itself will suddenly disappear worldwide today (which it won't...the fallout could take years before everything is even remotely back to normal).
So...there's that. Huge ass precautions we should be making just to do basic work...provided our companies don't go belly-up before that. Don't get me wrong: it'll be tough for every nation on this planet. But I'm (unfortunately) also confident it'll strike hardest at the country that gets hit hardest with the virus.
*sigh*
I'll quit making political posts. Sure, I can say "guess you should have picked a competent leader when you had the chance, eh?
"...but I can't be bothered anymore. I (and the rest of Belgium with me) have my (our) own shit to take care of. At best, in about 10 years we'll look back at this and compare this outbreak to the fall of the Berlin wall (except it ushered in the end of capitalism when it was at its worst). At worst...I don't want to think about it...EDIT: right...totally forgot about the UK (thanks @FAST6191 ). When I heard about their initial strategy, I thought it was a grimm april fool's joke. Because their plan came down to "we're not going to do anything". Sure it had some science fiction story about it, but again: it came down to "not doing anything". Yes, they've changed course, but I honestly can't fathom why they'd think that nonsense would work in the first place. I mean...really?
The idea was something called "herd immunity". If enough people get sick (and get better), they're later better equipped with dealing with the disease. As such, they would have an economic advantage over countries that went into hiding and that could STILL catch the virus afterward because being in hiding obviously doesn't grant you immunity.
Perhaps on paper this sort of practice could be defended, but this is A DEADLY VIRUS. Even with a small mortality rate, you end up with many thousands of deaths, which would have been quite literally sacrificed for an economy that is at best a "same old, same old". An even worse flaw is the incredibly huge infection rate, which would overload any medical facility attempting to pursuit that strategy.
Again: they've walked away from that excuse of a strategy. Not sure if they expect a pat on the back of not remaining retarded, but ey...at least they're doing better now.
(1): Flanders speaks Dutch, Wallonia is French
(2): the original lockdown was until april 5th. But it's been extended for two more weeks, and it's likely that two more weeks will be added (at least partial)
(3): extra note: this is much easier said than done. In Belgium, for example, the police are considering a strike because they can't get face masks. However, the politicians stay firm: the medical sector needs them first and foremost.
