Nintendo boosts switch forecast from 10 million units to 14 million units for first year

Discussion in 'User Submitted News' started by rileysrjay, Oct 30, 2017.

  1. rileysrjay
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    rileysrjay GBAtemp's official vinsclone speedster!

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    Nintendo decided to raise its forecast for the total amount of switch units sold from 10 million to 14 million within its first year today. This boost in forecast means that Nintendo is expecting for the switch to sell more units in its first year than the Wii U did in its entire lifetime. Nintendo also announced that the switch has sold 7.63 million units from launch to today. We'll have to wait and see if Nintendo can manage to sell 14 million switches in the console's first year; however, the possible boost from the upcoming holiday shopping season and the hype surrounding Super Mario Odysseys's recent release might help Nintendo make that number a reality.

    :arrow:source
     
    Last edited by rileysrjay, Oct 31, 2017 - Reason: Grammar errors
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  2. Bladexdsl

    Bladexdsl ZOMG my posts...it's over 9000!!!

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    go nintendo
     
  3. FAST6191

    FAST6191 Techromancer

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    "7.63 million units from launch to today" and they reckon they can basically double that in Christmas?

    That had better be a hell of a game push


    Not seeing it. Anybody that wants one on promise probably already has one. I see Dragon Quest is out in Japan but that is an update of a years old MMO.

    Unless they are slow playing a mario surge (which we are not really seeing any indicators of -- no lines around the block, reports of reservation/preorder surges, stock shortages, stock prices...) and going with pre mario numbers to make the difference appear larger. Equally has there ever been a Christmas day effect of that magnitude, much less for a months old game, and could you see that in the modern world?

    Maybe it will be xenoblade. I am sure doom and skyrim will be nice but even assuming there was no overlap and none of the existing switch owners get such games then looking at their sales and sales of the remastered versions (and possibly mods downloads/creation rates in the case of the PC as an indicator of continued interest in skyrim)... nope.

    10 million (or an extra 2 and bit million units being sold) would be a bit optimistic but I could see it. Still no way I can get to nearly 7 million.
     
  4. rileysrjay
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    rileysrjay GBAtemp's official vinsclone speedster!

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    I definitely think they'll pass 10 million, but I have to agree that 14 million is too optimistic. The holiday shopping season is a huge part of console sales here in America. It's really going to be tough for Nintendo going into the holiday season because I've heard rumors of retailers selling the base PS4 and Xbox one s at $200 or less for black friday. But Nintendo does have that duel Zelda Mario thing going for them, which I've seen far more hype over than anything Sony or Microsoft has put out that was first party lately. Plus Nintendo hasn't announced any dates for their 2018 first party lineup for January-march, which is a bit worrying. Actually November looks like a pretty good month imo for stuff people would like here in America. Doom, Skyrim (yes, a 6 year old game), rocket league, and anything rockstar games is huge here, so I think they'll get a little boost from them over the holidays, but not anything major enough to hit that 14 million.
     
  5. Columbo2811

    Columbo2811 GBAtemp Maniac

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    There first year will be up until 3rd of march. As that was when it released. So maybe possible
     
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  6. FAST6191

    FAST6191 Techromancer

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    Zelda is going to be what 9 months come Christmas? Has any game, much less one with as much advertiser push as it had, ever made a dent that far in the future, especially with no DLC/expansions/sudden multiplayer mode to reinvigorate it? Equally I don't know if it has that much pull with the kids -- I could see pokemon playing here but Zelda is more well liked and nice than considered even vaguely essential. Going further we are still also talking about additional console sales -- many that want such a thing probably already have it, I still maintain most that reckon the switch has promise already have it and I would not be surprised to see more waiting for a switch lite/switch XL or something (Nintendo games stay pricey but they are hardly rare). That is before we consider that those wanting to play doom and those wanting to play skyrim (we will assume on the go is a big draw) probably have massive overlap in their audience as well. Slim possible exception if Doom fixed its multiplayer and it then becomes the main alternative to Splatoon a la what a lot of N64 devs tried to do, though I would suspect that becomes more people trying to extract value from a Switch than buying a Switch to play it.

    I agree Sony and MS first party showings are weak, not that I am complaining at all (exclusives are bad from where I sit) but at the same time is Nintendo getting the third party stuff (at anything resembling the same quality -- the wii had cod but where PS3 vs 360 was probably more "what do your mates have?/do you want to pay for Live?/Which controller do you prefer" the wii was an also ran in this regard) they are getting? Zelda, Mario, Halo, Forza, Uncharted and such are nice but COD, Battlfield, Madden and FIFA rule the roost. Young Jimmy might enjoy Zelda if he played it but COD is where it is at, and as a parent I imagine COD+ Live/PSN for a year (or indeed game from me, Live/PSN from grandma) is a better prospect than a whole device. Speaking of whole new devices you know young Jimmy will definitely like a phone of which there are some notable efforts set to appear ( http://www.techadvisor.co.uk/new-product/mobile-phone/best-new-phones-3613852/ ) with several nice things being far less than a properly kitted out Switch.

    LA Noire? Anything Rockstar North makes is huge, everything else is up for debate and this was not Rockstar North. It is also coming out on PS4 and Xbone so it is not like this will possibly be a definitive edition/single second chance to catch something cool like might have happened for some of the Wii U ports.

    I forgot to also consider a potentially untapped market a la housewives with the DS and whatever went on with the Wii. I doubt we are going to see housewives come back from phones and tablets any time soon and if the switch was the next wii it would have done it already.

    "year one ends in march 2018"
    That is still ridiculously optimistic but more plausible than by Christmas, I shall note my potential error in assuming this was calendar year end and not release day + 365/four quarters or financial year or something. I don't know my January-Easter console sale window, games have been doing fairly well though these last few years as devs/publishers try to skip the Christmas glut. I don't think it has ever been huge but months of consistent solid sales do add up. I went back to gamefaqs to look at the release schedule but there was not a lot of info. Not sure what I might extrapolate from E3 and other info but that is a bit more effort than I am willing to put in right now.
    I shall also have to look to see if this is some kind of forecast/projection they can be held to account for as well.
     
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  7. Nah3DS

    Nah3DS Madre de Dios! Es El POLLO DIABLO!!!

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    nintendoomed lol
     
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  8. the_randomizer

    the_randomizer The Temp's official fox whisperer

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    That's already half of the Wii U lifetime sales, in just six months. So, yeah, so much for the naysayers saying the Switch will be a flop.
     
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  9. StarTrekVoyager

    StarTrekVoyager Soon™

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    14M for this financial year is definitely doable. They already sold 7.63M outside of the holiday season, and the holiday season is going to boost the sales. Plus Odyssey sold around 2M in only 3 days...
     
  10. Supershadic1000000

    Supershadic1000000 Thou art me and I is thee except after C

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    I think they'll make it... they have till march 2018 to do it so I think they'll make it
     
  11. yoyoyo69

    yoyoyo69 Advanced Member

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    They'll be factirung in price cuts. As mentioned they have till easter. I'm still very doubtful they hit this target. I don't know a sole who has (or even wants) one, children included obviously
     
  12. jefffisher

    jefffisher GBAtemp Maniac

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    you guys are forgetting two things first the switch has been widely sold out til now, not so much in europe but for a good part of america and completely in japan.
    second sony sold 6.2 million ps4's during last years holiday season, and the switch has been outselling ps4 constantly they'll sell every console they can get on the shelves before christmas.
     
  13. Futurdreamz

    Futurdreamz GBAtemp Advanced Maniac

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    If they have too much stock left over they just need to launch Super Smash Bros Deluxe.
     
  14. Supershadic1000000

    Supershadic1000000 Thou art me and I is thee except after C

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    or a new smash game in general... (or melee hd normal version and original version for the competitive scene)
     
  15. Alato

    Alato GBAtemp Regular

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    Uhh, are you just ignoring the fact that Monopoly for Nintendo Switch is coming out in less than two weeks?

    14 million units is a low ball estimate.
     
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  16. rileysrjay
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    rileysrjay GBAtemp's official vinsclone speedster!

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    "Little Jimmy" never was Nintendo's focus for the switch. Here, read this PDF Nintendo released yesterday:
    https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2017/171031_2e.pdf
    As you can see, nintendo has clearly been targeting the young adult demographic, and it seems to be working. It makes sense, all there ads show young adults using the switch. I've only seen two ads featuring children for the switch, and their appearance was very short. Nintendo's trying to reach that child demographic with the 3ds by making it as their "family" console (which I still don't think is going to save the 3ds, it's fate is sealed and it'll probably die sometime next year imo).
    While yes, the switch isn't getting cod wwii or destiny 2 (probably two of the biggest holiday releases/ console sellers), you can't deny that it is extremely impressive the amount of third party support they've drummed up in such a sort time after coming of virtually no third party support for the Wii u. Its gotten fifa, nba2k, wwe, doom, Skyrim, l.a. noire and rocket league all within a relatively short period. The two big things that the switch has going for it are:
    1. Combination of good first party (also some third party) games (Zelda isn't a system seller by itself, neither is Mario; however, combine those with Splatoon 2 and mk8 deluxe and you have a pretty good first party lineup that would convince someone to buy a switch)

    2. Portability. Portability is probably the switch's best selling point and from what I've seen and it seems to be working (refer back to that PDF; more people use handheld mode than docked mode). I have no idea how many times I've heard people excited about Skyrim, a six year old game, because they can play it on the go.

    I agree that the switch isn't going to be another Wii or ds; I stick by my 50 million lifetime sales for it (although I might have to bump that number up depending how the holidays go). Smartphones have that kid and housewife demographic swooped up no doubt. But what about people that want a more traditional gaming experience but have a busy life and aren't home a lot/ don't want a console hooked up to their tv all the time? That's where the switch steps in, and I think those busy people are some of the ones buying the switch.

    To conclude, I'd say that the switch will see a boost during the holidays, but I don't expect it to be too big IF the PS4 and Xbox one s are going to get the discounts as have been rumored. Personally I see Ninty hitting 11-12 million switches by March 3. There's only 4 months until then, and I really doubt Nintendo can sell almost 6.4 million switches to hit that goal of 14 million, even with the holiday boost.
     
    Last edited by rileysrjay, Oct 31, 2017
  17. FAST6191

    FAST6191 Techromancer

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    We may have an age slang/euphemism/standin disparity. I meant the 14 year COD fan as well, not my 8-10 year old cousin, though both are valuable enough.

    I was there for the three pillars at the start of the DS lifetime. I find the tooth fairy more plausible than them maintaining parallel lines here. Similarly much of this third party stuff has "we will be watching results carefully" appended to it, and we were here before for the Wii U with ubisoft's and EA's unprecedented relationships and whatever.

    I can deny the switch 3rd party. Certainly better than the wii u and final years of wii (and probably start of the wii as well) but "stand tall or don't stand at all" is how I am calling it here and I would want to see a lot more effort before I become sated. A whole greater than the sum of its parts thing is an option but I am not seeing it yet, nor the path to it.

    Is Destiny a console seller? It had retention issues in a rather big way from what I saw.

    Portable skyrim is cool, subject to performance. Whether it is $60 (possibly + switch) cool is a different matter, especially without mods... wonder if I can get a cheap refurb laptop to run it. [insert switch overheating joke]
    Also something I am pondering. Skyrim VR is due out in a similar timeframe. Being VR I don't expect much but I expect to be able to draw some comparisons. Also while I joked about Xenoblade earlier I might have a little punt on it taking a bit from skyrim if people had rinsed it years before.

    LA Noire was a GTA clone with a gimmick, and like most clones with a gimmick it fell short. On the other hand I had True Crime LA for my Gamecube because I did not yet have a xbox for GTA; I can see a boost from that effect but as a system shifter not so much.

    Portable mode. A couple of years back I was watching a presentation on wireless power. Part of that was they studied what sort of distances people used battery devices from a socket for; on average it was not large. One then wonders how much of the switch is being able to properly mong on the couch/bed and play, all the while possibly being "stand up and fall over, decent chance you will hit a socket or even the dock" distance.
    Would a concerted push by MS and Sony to streamline their console -> tablet streaming options (both have them already and have had them for a while) impact this?

    "have a busy life and aren't home a lot/ don't want a console hooked up to their tv all the time"
    Is that like the time online games failed because those with spotty connections on military bases would not be able to play? (see part of the backlash against xbone always on) Equally current consoles are HDMI and also double up as media players. I am sure said demographic would be delighted but whether it is big enough to truly matter.
     
  18. rileysrjay
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    rileysrjay GBAtemp's official vinsclone speedster!

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    Both Microsoft and Sony's streaming solutions sucked and I could never get either to work, even when I had a good internet connection on both sides. There's still always going to be some kind of latency with streaming, a la ps now (a cool service, but some games such as shadow of the Colossus are unplayable due to the lag; I did manage to play the first 3 uncharted games on my Vita which was really cool, but it was a very frustrating experience because every two minutes the stream would freak out). Ultimately I don't think game streaming services from Microsoft or Sony would put a dent in the switch due to being forced to have a decent internet connection and latency even if the connection is good.

    Where was that study conducted? In the home, at work or just generally everywhere? It Sounds pretty interesting Imo. If it was strictly in the home than I can see the comparison to switch's portability factor being used only 5 feet away from the dock. I use my switch out and about all the time, dunno about others. Only seen one other person with a switch, and they were probably around 11 years old and sitting in the local Captain D's. I live in a pretty rural area, so I'm surprised I've even seen one other switch in the wild. I've used my switch at college, on the road and even in a plane. I'll sometimes play in bed or on the couch, sure, but if I'm at home I usually play docked. Also, yes, the switch doesn't really double as a media player, which sucks, but the majority of people probably have at least one other device anyways to watch TV or listen to music, so does it truly matter 100% to the consumer? I buy a console to play games, not watch Netflix. If I just want to watch Netflix I'll go buy a fire TV stick or something. Consoles doubling as a media player is just icing on the cake imo.

    Destiny is huge here where I live for some reason, I never really got into it. People love Skyrim here and will easily cough up $60 for it, as crazy as it sounds. I wasn't trying to say third party support was impressive against the ps4 or anything, just how far they've come from around the end of the Wii u until now. I respect your view on third parties and the switch and see where you're coming from on it. Also Ubisoft and EA are full of it, they say crap like "oh, we have a wonderful relationship with nintendo!" all the time, then proceed to do the exact opposite of what they say.
     
    Last edited by rileysrjay, Oct 31, 2017
  19. FAST6191

    FAST6191 Techromancer

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    Hence the streamline part of that sentence. I have had RDP (remote desktop that microsoft does for computers) working just fine for audio, video and 3d before so it could be done without too many real latency issues. Equally if the wii u works wirelessly...

    It was not a proper paper that I recall, more that the people doing induction (wireless) charging/power delivery ran into a range issue as the first thing they did. They then decided to figure out what would actually be needed for it
    Not the one I am thinking of but covers many of the key points


    "another device"
    Mobile phones killed pagers, small cameras, mp3 players, palm computers, portable web browsers, stopped portable video players bar portable DVDs from ever really existing, and have long since started destroying the dedicated device market (why design a full device when you can hire any old java programmer and beam everything to a phone over bluetooth). Barring the quality of the digital-> analogue encoder/decoder (DAC) any one of those could have been done better by dedicated devices of many years earlier. I fail to see why they will not be able to claim dedicate handheld gaming devices. As it stands they have already made a good start -- one of the other reasons I am not expecting the next DS is because many of the people doing good stuff on the DS have been doing phone/tablet stuff for years.

    As a great album title (also great album) once read. Give Me Convenience or Give Me Death. I like quality things (not that I find the presently incarnation of the switch a quality thing) but most settle quite happily for good enough, and while for many years good enough was a bit of a dream these days we do have cheap low power chips (not to mention better batteries) to decode video suitable for human eyes (also screens for that) and do everything else that makes such a list.

    "I buy a console to play games, not watch Netflix"
    OK, says little about general consumer trends and I figure there is a reason every E3 gets taken up with mentioning such features. Of course every E3 also gets taken up mentioning non starters like VR, second screen, kinect/move/waggle controls and so forth.
    On the flip side no small number of PS1s became CD players, PS2s DVD and PS3s blu ray.

    "If I just want to watch Netflix I'll go buy a fire TV stick or something"
    If I am to don a usability experience hat then it sounds like there is a failure of user interface there. The usual start example would be have you looked up something on your phone when sat at a computer? Likely a failure of user interface if so.
     
  20. zoogie

    zoogie simple pimp tool

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    Most feet don't care about video games.

    Back to seriousness, I think there's a shot a 14 mill but it does seem switch sales might be slowing down a bit going by the ready availability I'm seeing in my local stores.