Trump leads Kamala in nearly every swing state [Update: Trump wins the 2024 election]

[NyaakoXD]

Don't forget tax cutting billionaires and failing to take proper measures against COVID-19 pandemic.

 

[The Catboy]

Valwinz this may come as a shock to you

Biden is not running for president

I will leave you time to mourn

Honestly, I am not shocked that Trump supporters are as detached from the current year as Trump is. Trump has literally confused Biden for Obama.

Seriously, it's disturbing that just how much Trump's grip on reality is slipping. Like, Biden was made to step out of the race due to his failing grasp on reality, yet Republicans are going full speed with a dude who goes on dementia rants.

As a 6’2 individual. I’m tired of people mocking shit out of the “short” people. We were once little before, life treats ALL of us like shit, big, small, fat, skinny, black, white, so just shut up and treat the “little” guy some actual RESPECT

I am 5'4, I think it's ok to disrespect small people, I do it all the time

 

[chrisrlink]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...r&cvid=5aad64e957d14cb7a125bfedc8e3bc31&ei=18 (just a bit of thought)

 

[x65943]

Please stay on topic or go to the eof

 

[SeltzerMist]

Still taking the polls with a grain of salt because this doesn't even align with our special elections earlier this year but

https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1851676410064064590

 

[x65943]

Still taking the polls with a grain of salt because this doesn't even align with our special elections earlier this year but

https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1851676410064064590

What special election?

A lot can change in a few months, Kamala was on top for a while in all the polls - and now all vanished

 

[SeltzerMist]

What special election?

A lot can change in a few months, Kamala was on top for a while in all the polls - and now all vanished

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news...-on-power-to-spend-federal-money/74724121007/

This also had a record turnout given the kind of ballot this was.

Honestly IMO a lot of these polls continue to ignore the impact Roe vs Wade being overturned is having on results, and they're ignoring Gen Z who are also breaking turnout records for their age demographic compared to previous generation.

 

[x65943]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news...-on-power-to-spend-federal-money/74724121007/

This also had a record turnout given the kind of ballot this was.

Honestly IMO a lot of these polls continue to ignore the impact Roe vs Wade being overturned is having on results, and they're ignoring Gen Z who are also breaking turnout records for their age demographic compared to previous generation.

The state amendment being rejected, although pushed by Republicans, is hardly good data to support voters don't want Republicans in office

The polls are agnostic to those factors, they simply ask likely voters who they will support - if young people aren't identifying themselves as likely voters that's probably why they are being ignored (and perhaps rightfully so if they don't actually intend to vote)

 

[SeltzerMist]

Our legislature also changed after Roe vs Wade was overturned, and we've had a Democrat governor since 2019. Wisconsin was pretty red for about a decade prior, until after Trump won and the events that followed with his presidency.

I've also only recently been getting a lot of cold calls from unknown numbers and the transcribing reveals they're pollers looking for info on who I'm voting for.

I don't answer unknown numbers unless I'm expecting a call, and cold calling landlines and cellphones are still the primary method of gathering this data.

The method is flawed.

 

[x65943]

Our legislature also changed after Roe vs Wade was overturned, and we've had a Democrat governor since 2019. Wisconsin was pretty red for about a decade prior, until after Trump won and the events that followed with his presidency.

I've also only recently been getting a lot of cold calls from unknown numbers and the transcribing reveals they're pollers looking for info on who I'm voting for.

I don't answer unknown numbers unless I'm expecting a call, and cold calling landlines and cellphones are still the primary method of gathering this data.

The method is flawed.

You guys also re-elected a Republican senator 2 years ago...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Wisconsin

Seems like Wisconsin hasn't changed as much as we think

 

[SeltzerMist]

Ron Johnson is a bit of an anomaly, and we're still a swing state. His opponent also ran a terrible campaign.

That said the court makeup changed in 2023 directly as a result of Roe vs Wade being overturned. The only law we had for abortion once that happened was one from the mid 1800s and it was incredibly restrictive.

The law has since changed due to 2023 elections changing the court makeup.

I'm just observing and sharing the trends I'm seeing in my own state. I'm not willing to speaking about others in this amount of detail. I would be very surprised if WI goes for Trump this year.

On a more anecdotal note, there's definitely less Trump signs I'm seeing in my city, surrounding cities and rural areas compared to 2020 and 2016. Even more to note, I'm seeing Harris signs in rural areas and farmland which is unusual, and I'm seeing Republicans for Harris signs up as well.

 

[x65943]

Ron Johnson is a bit of an anomaly, and we're still a swing state.

That said the court makeup changed in 2023 directly as a result of Roe vs Wade being overturned. The only law we had for abortion once that happened was one from the mid 1800s and it was incredibly restrictive.

The law has since changed due to 2023 elections changing the court makeup.

I'm just observing and sharing the trends I'm seeing in my own state. I'm not willing to speaking about others in this amount of detail. I would be very surprised if WI goes for Trump this year.

On a more anecdotal note, there's definitely less Trump signs I'm seeing in my city, surrounding cities and rural areas compared to 2020 and 2016. Even more to note, I'm seeing Harris signs in rural areas and farmland which is unusual, and I'm seeing Republicans for Harris signs up as well.

The 2022 house election in Wisconsin saw Republicans gain a house seat - and Democrats only got about 40% of the vote

Wisconsin is a swing state probably mostly so because Trump is such a garbage Republican candidate

I would not be surprised to see Trump win Wisconsin - Republicans nearly swept the last federal election there - AND this was 5 months AFTER Roe was overturned

 

[SeltzerMist]

The 2022 house election in Wisconsin saw Republicans gain a house seat - and Democrats only got about 40% of the vote

Wisconsin is a swing state probably mostly so because Trump is such a garbage Republican candidate

I would not be surprised to see Trump win Wisconsin - Republicans nearly swept the last federal election there - AND this was 5 months AFTER Roe was overturned

View attachment 468253

At that time WI was one of the most gerrymandered states in the country if not the worst one. A 6:2 split given the actual voter count is incredibly disproportionate.

This has since changed
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...ing-maps-gerrymandering-republicans-democrats

 

[x65943]

At that time WI was one of the most gerrymandered states in the country if not the worst one.

This has since changed
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...ing-maps-gerrymandering-republicans-democrats

You can't gerrymander a 55/40 split

A 15% lead in popular vote shouldn't net you that many seats sure, but it only takes a 1% lead to get all of the state's EVs

 

[SeltzerMist]

55% of the vote resulting in 75% of the seats is disproportionate.

 

[x65943]

55% of the vote resulting in 75% of the seats is disproportionate.

I agree, but 55% of the vote vs 40% for Democrats is a 15% lead

And that's after Roe was overturned

My point is, Wisconsin is becoming more red

 

[x65943]

Wisconsin is actually becoming redder, it only voted Republican three times since 1976

The trend from the 2022 election is pretty worrying and perhaps a sign of things to come from a now Republican leaning state

 

[SeltzerMist]

I agree, but 55% of the vote vs 40% for Democrats is a 15% lead

And that's after Roe was overturned

My point is, Wisconsin is becoming more red

Primary turnout (which historically is lower with Democrats) also says otherwise

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/primaries-and-caucuses/results/wisconsin

 

[wartutor]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...r&cvid=5aad64e957d14cb7a125bfedc8e3bc31&ei=18 (just a bit of thought)

Lol use a biased program to predict the outcome and not expect it to be biased....msn needs to get their shit together...hell bet MSN said Bidan didn't call half of Americans garbage last night.

 

[Landysodds]

https://abcnews.go.com/US/elon-musk...s-cause-temporary-hardship/story?id=115316405