Trump leads Kamala in nearly every swing state [Update: Trump wins the 2024 election]

[Cranesbill]

Um . . . guys, I-I think it's over for Kamala now Dr Phill is here

 

[titan_tim]

Concepts are the way to go.

Then what is the concept?

He's already said his concepts with zero specification already with tariffs and drilling and income tax. I believe on Rogan's show, when asked if he was serious about the income tax idea, his answer was "Yeah, sure, why not?". He's still floating ideas after this many years.

Post automatically merged: Oct 28, 2024

Um . . . guys, I-I think it's over for Kamala now Dr Phill is here

Woah, woah, woah, he says that Trump isn't a bully because there isn't an imbalance of power?! That's his argument as a professional shrink?

Who is he bullying that is on the same power level as him? Harris? He's not bullying her, because she has stood up to him and dominated him. He bullies the citizens that he doesn't like and the GOP members who are below him. There's a HUGE imbalance of power there. If GOP members stand up to him, they lose their seats in the senate or congress, as we've already seen in the past. He sicks his MAGA group on Hattians, and causes their lives to be much worse. Does Phil think that Hattian immigrants have the same power as him!?

I don't know why I expected more from his him, but.... wow that's a weak argument....

 

[Deleted member 117573]

Sorry, I stepped away for a bit to make some of them MAMALA bathtub collard greens. What did I miss?

 

[KingVamp]

How surprising. A movement based on hate, had a hateful rally. /s

 

[x65943]

Trump is now behind Kamala 0.7% for popular vote with margin of error around 2.5%

Effectively the popular vote is a coin flip right now

Trump might actually win the popular vote AND the electoral college

Would be only the second time a Republican pulled that off this century

 

[Deleted member 117573]

Trump is now behind Kamala 0.7% for popular vote with margin of error around 2.5%

Effectively the popular vote is a coin flip right now

Trump might actually win the popular vote AND the electoral college

Would be only the second time a Republican pulled that off this century

While I would like to see that...I'll believe it when I see it as there was only a single instance in our recent history. I'll settle for just the electoral college victory.

 

[Xzi]

Trump is now behind Kamala 0.7% for popular vote with margin of error around 2.5%

Effectively the popular vote is a coin flip right now

Trump might actually win the popular vote AND the electoral college

Would be only the second time a Republican pulled that off this century

I'd say polling is getting worse and worse with every election, but this time around I think it's been bad on purpose. If they can't keep making money off of covering Trump chaos, then they're at least gonna make some money with post-election rage bait.

 

[x65943]

I'd say polling is getting worse and worse with every election, but this time around I think it's been bad on purpose. If they can't keep making money off of covering Trump chaos, then they're at least gonna make some money with post-election rage bait.

I don't know that polling is necessarily getting worse, but I do think elections have been closer lately than in the recent past

 

[Xzi]

I don't know that polling is necessarily getting worse, but I do think elections have been closer lately than in the recent past

The polls all went extra wonky as soon as early voting started, which I think is significant for a number of reasons. Only exit polling is likely to paint a clearer picture.

 

[x65943]

The polls all went extra wonky as soon as early voting started, which I think is significant for a number of reasons. Only exit polling is likely to paint a clearer picture.

I'm gonna be in the veterans hospital on election day (same as 2020)

Should be interesting, last time around everyone was in melt down mode for obvious reasons

 

[Xzi]

I'm gonna be in the veterans hospital on election day (same as 2020)

Should be interesting, last time around everyone was in melt down mode for obvious reasons

Very unlikely we know who won on election night, Republicans have changed policy in many swing states to not allow for counting of early votes until after same-day votes are counted. They've also pushed for counting by hand only, but I'm not sure they've been very successful with that.

 

[x65943]

Very unlikely we know who won on election night, Republicans have changed policy in many swing states to not allow for counting of early votes until after same-day votes are counted. They've also pushed for counting by hand only, but I'm not sure they've been very successful with that.

I did read their rule change was struck down in Georgia (for hand counting) at least due to a provision that you can't make major changes 90 days before an election

I think we will have a good idea tho on election night since a bias 1 or 2 points either way will likely translate across states - meaning if we see even one swing state deviating from polls considerably we will probably know which way all the other states actually ended up voting

 

[KingVamp]

Well, looking back, none of the swing states got called on the first day. I think we need at least a day after to start guessing.

 

[x65943]

Looking back at 2020:

I've recorded when the 7 swing states were called

Pennsylvania ultimately decided that race, so it took 4 days to see who the winner would be. However in this race if Kamala loses MI/PA or WI she is likely to lose overall - so we might know earlier this time around

11/3 election day
11/4
Michigan
Wisconsin
Arizona

11/7
Pennsylvania (decided the race)
Nevada

11/13
North Carolina

11/19
Georgia

https://www.axios.com/2024/10/25/how-long-states-called-election

https://blog.ap.org/behind-the-news/calling-the-2020-presidential-race-state-by-state

 

[titan_tim]

Comments of a unfunny comedian that everyone in the GOP is calling out? sure unfunny

So one side is literally calling you floating garbage, and the other side on the same day is saying they'll build up your island to be better than ever. This is getting beyond the level a person being abused feeling the need to defend their abuser.

https://x.com/KamalaHarris/status/1850667731353317595

 

[Viri]

Trump might actually win the popular vote

Why do people care about the popular vote? Winning it doesn't really mean anything, if you can still win the electoral college.

 

[Valwinz]

Why do people care about the popular vote? Winning it doesn't really mean anything, if you can still win the electoral college.

Dems seems to care since they so salty about 2016,

 

[SeltzerMist]

Why do people care about the popular vote? Winning it doesn't really mean anything, if you can still win the electoral college.

The will of the people shouldn't be reflected in who the leader is

 

[x65943]

Why do people care about the popular vote? Winning it doesn't really mean anything, if you can still win the electoral college.

For starters, I think if Kamala lost even worse to Trump than Shillary did it might make the Dems do some soul searching

 

[Deleted member 117573]

Removal of the Electoral College as a means of deciding the Presidency would require a Constitutional Amendment. Seeing as it has existed since 1787 it is unlikely to happen in the near term. I will probably not live to see it replaced by the popular vote...but who knows