Trump leads Kamala in nearly every swing state [Update: Trump wins the 2024 election]

[Xzi]

All within margin of error obviously so it's anyone's game - however this data does not bode well

I mean it's rather predictable, the media needs a two horse race to keep people engaged, so polls always tighten the closer we get to an election. If you put any stock into them, then the race is a coin flip, there are no safe swing states for Harris but there are no safe swing states for Trump, either. Personally I think they're not telling the whole story, or even close to it.

If Trump is somehow re-elected, we must replace the statue of liberty with a giant Darwin award, because it will be the stupidest way any country has ever killed itself in all of human history.

 

[gudenau]

Huh, I'm just realizing I've never been asked who I voted for after I've voted. I don't think I've been in any of these polls in general.

Post automatically merged: Oct 23, 2024

regardless of what you can afford; unless you have dual citizenship or a highly desirable job you won't be able to move overseas to another first world country easily

however the global south would probably be an easy move but you'd have to forego a lot of luxuries

I don't have the money to move in general right now and I feel like trying to drive across either border right now would be a huge mistake for me. One side would definitely require more money and the other I couldn't communicate.

Edit: I'm a programmer doing super lame and boring IT work, I'm probably not going to find good employment either.

 

[NyaakoXD]

Well kamalacats, Trump is now ahead in 5 of 7 swing states, I think it's time to change the thread title back

View attachment 466492

Which translates to

View attachment 466493

All within margin of error obviously so it's anyone's game - however this data does not bode well

These are just polls, though. They aren't wholly reliable for neither side.

Very misleading to say that Trump is leading, atm.

> Polling No Tossup

 

[x65943]

Huh, I'm just realizing I've never been asked who I voted for after I've voted. I don't think I've been in any of these polls in general.

well there were over 155 million votes in 2020 and the major exit poll had 7,774 voters

so there is about a 1/20,000 chance they would have interviewed you

you won't come close to voting 20,000 times in your life, you will probably vote about 15 times from 18-80 years of age

meaning there is about a 0.09% chance you are in one of these polls in an entire lifetime

so I would actually be pretty shocked if anyone here had been interviewed for an exit poll

 

[x65943]

These are just polls, though. They aren't wholly reliable for neither side.

Very misleading to say that Trump is leading, atm.
View attachment 466494
> Polling No Tossup

I wouldn't say it's misleading to say Trump is leading, he is

but just by a razor thin margin - and within margin of error

so the true value is likely to fall anywhere between Kamala or Trump winning on election night - but he is still by absolute terms ahead currently

 

[gudenau]

I suppose one way to look on the bright side: these are exit polls which can't capture mail in ballots which normally lean Democrat.

It's wild to think how many people are claiming they voted for someone that's the enemy of the law and is a convicted felon, among many other disqualifying attributes....

 

[x65943]

I suppose one way to look on the bright side: these are exit polls which can't capture mail in ballots which normally lean Democrat.

It's wild to think how many people are claiming they voted for someone that's the enemy of the law and is a convicted felon, among many other disqualifying attributes....

what I posted is not exit polls

in fact exit polls cannot exist right now since election day hasn't happened

this is traditional polling

 

[Moe87]

These are just polls, though. They aren't wholly reliable for neither side.

Very misleading to say that Trump is leading, atm.
-snip-
> Polling No Tossup

Remember about 2012 and 2016 polls - both were wrong.

2012 poll showed Romney is going to win and 2016 poll showed Clinton is going to win. 2020 poll is off by few points.

That depends on how many voters stay at home and how many voters are seriously, so have more conservatives stay at home is bad news for Trump and have more liberals stay at home is bad news for Harris.

If Trump wins, so that is his final term and he isn't going to run for election again. If he screw up during in the office, so he is going to be punished in midterm election like happened in 2018. Hopefully senate don't tilt too deep and if senate is divided, so democrats could rely on moderate GOP to block most of Trump's agenda. Trump would end up rely on acting position and try to rely on military fund to fund the immigration enforcement, but democrats could block NDAA and Trump would have no money left to follow his agenda.

 

[x65943]

Remember about 2012 and 2016 polls - both were wrong.

2012 poll showed Romney is going to win and 2016 poll showed Clinton is going to win. 2020 poll is off by few points.

That depends on how many voters stay at home and how many voters are seriously, so have more conservatives stay at home is bad news for Trump and have more liberals stay at home is bad news for Harris.

If Trump wins, so that is his final term and he isn't going to run for election again. If he screw up during in the office, so he is going to be punished in midterm election like happened in 2018. Hopefully senate don't tilt too deep and if senate is divided, so democrats could rely on moderate GOP to block most of Trump's agenda. Trump would end up rely on acting position and try to rely on military fund to fund the immigration enforcement, but democrats could block NDAA and Trump would have no money left to follow his agenda.

around this time in 2012 (October 22) Romney was ahead, but by election day Obama overcame Romney's lead - October 24th was the day Obama overtook - so fingers crossed for 2 days from now

 

[KingVamp]

I wonder how many polls are going into the trash, after the election.

 

[Cranesbill]

I don't know, mate, that extra nugget Trump gave to that man really changed my perspective on life /j

 

[gudenau]

I wonder how many polls are going into the trash, after the election.

If Trump wins all of the ones that ever had blue ahead, if Kamala wins probably none of them.

 

[DiscostewSM]

I don't know, mate, that extra nugget Trump gave to that man really changed my perspective on life /j

I thought he was awarded a "French Fries Certification". What's he doing handling chicken nuggets? We don't know where that nugget has been!

 

[Cranesbill]

I thought he was awarded a "French Fries Certification". What's he doing handling chicken nuggets? We don't know where that nugget has been!

Don't overthink it, my friend, extra nugget, free food

 

[Hanafuda]

I don't know, mate, that extra nugget Trump gave to that man really changed my perspective on life /j

I would be pretty chuffed for an extra bone or bell, but not a boot. Fuck those boots.

 

[Moe87]

around this time in 2012 (October 22) Romney was ahead, but by election day Obama overcame Romney's lead - October 24th was the day Obama overtook - so fingers crossed for 2 days from now

View attachment 466501

I means Gallup because it was one of most recognizable poll at that time (in 2012).

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/nov/23/gallup-2012-election-polling-debacle

As for 2024, issue wouldn't be cell phone vs. landline phone, so issue would be how many are silent voters and how many are new voters that don't respond to polls that skew on data, so it could be few points off.

I noticed that polls in other countries like UK and Israel are almost accurate.

 

[SeltzerMist]

Election results preceding this one still have a trend contrary to the polls. And those polls kept saying otherwise too.

 

[The Catboy]

Well kamalacats, Trump is now ahead in 5 of 7 swing states, I think it's time to change the thread title back

View attachment 466492

Which translates to

View attachment 466495

All within margin of error obviously so it's anyone's game - however this data does not bode well

Although I am not voting, I do hope Trump loses. The idea of having a second term for someone who has proven to be completely incompetent, unqualified, and clearly losing his mind is tragic. I really don’t understand how people can listen to him do nonsense rambling on stage and say, “Yup, that’s definitely someone in the right mind to run this country.”

 

[x65943]

I means Gallup because it was one of most recognizable poll at that time (in 2012).

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/nov/23/gallup-2012-election-polling-debacle

As for 2024, issue wouldn't be cell phone vs. landline phone, so issue would be how many are silent voters and how many are new voters that don't respond to polls that skew on data, so it could be few points off.

I noticed that polls in other countries like UK and Israel are almost accurate.

It makes more sense to look at an aggregate like I showed you

Aggregate showed Obama winning

 

[Dark_Ansem]

Please remind me why polymarket is... not entirely scientific