Let's get one thing out of the way: no, I don't support republicans. Heck, even mainstream democrats are too rightwing for my taste, but by lack of alternative they've got my (reluctant) back. Yet...the US presidency has its influence in the world, especially if one of the candidates tries to outperform Adolf Hitler's policies.
Trump has been in the lead on republican front ever since he announced his candidacy. And he has stayed there, no matter the legal consequences of his earlier conduct. Hiding top secret documents in Mar-a-lago? Polls remain the same. Found guilty on sexually assauting Carroll? His base doesn't care. Trump's company being prosecuted for tax fraud? Polls are steady. Being removed from the ballot in Colorado? He's as popular as ever. Found guilty on defaming Carroll, to the point of facing bankruptcy? A bit early to tell, but my guess is his popularity remains the same.
There's a flipside to this, though. Among republicans, Trump had the back of well over 50% of the people. That was impressive when there were a dozen or so candidates in the race. But as the others stopped running, his popularity hardly grew, if at all. It's not exactly a surprise, given Trump's personality. But as a result of that, the one remaining candidate - Nikky Haley - has grown percentage wise all the time.
Take Iowa. Trump won. Not much of a contest there...except in turnout. Where the hell was everyone? I won't deny that the weather was pretty bad, but still...given the outcome, I'd say it was pretty even. It could even have been tense if there weren't record low turnout numbers. Yes, Trump got the most voters...from republicans...who voted in the caucus. Otherwise said: about 4% of Iowa residents voted for him.
He also won New Hampshire. Again: fairly evenly divided. Not razor thin (IIRC he got around 57%, but don't quote me on that), but decent numbers. If I were Nikki Haley, I wouldn't give up just yet either. It's pretty clear she has a base: the non-MAGA republicans flat out support her. They just don't seem to be the majority in the party anymore. That would've been a set and match if it weren't for two aces:
1) the obvious slew of trial cases of Trump followers. Where the hell is he going to find 83 million dollars to pay Carroll? How much is Engonron going to fine for his company's fucking PROVEN misconduct(1)? Is Rudy fucking GIULIANI going to sue Trump for not paying his bills?
I could go on on those, but those all sort of blend together for me. The supreme courts situation's...different. With states all over the USA filing records to ban Trump from the ballot because Colorado did it, the supreme court will have to intervene. And though Trump touts very loud that he personally put half his people there...I'm not so sure that they'll rule in his favor.
Y'see: justice systems base themselves on earlier decisions. In this case it's pretty contested, so it can go either way. But unlike politicians, those judges don't have to worry about being re-elected, so they're not as inclined to follow ideologies other than what's in their job description. They know their ruling isn't "just" about Trump but about any president (meaning: Biden would be able to hold a pretty fucking WILD re-election campaign if they rule that the inauguration oath is a sort of joke).
Of course: Trump being Trump, he isn't about to suck up to them. Rather the opposite: he whines at every chance he gets that the supreme courts should do something of the many trials he's going through. Yyyyeaaahhh...not exactly the sort of thing to remind them of when you want them to do you a favor, Donald.
But all in all: plenty of options that Trump might not even make it to the finish line. Some morons might still vote for him when he's in jail, but you can bet they're not the majority.
2) Haley currently raises more money from donors. No, I'm not talking the fact that Trump uses all his super PAC money to pay his legal fees (just heard today that he spend +50 million bucks on legal costs...and that isn't counting the 83 he owes Carroll). I'm talking the fact that Haley simply appeals more to...well...every company not called mypillow. Trump has a strong base, but it unfortunately consists of neonazi gun nuts, rightwing evangelicals who don't read the bible and Karen soccer moms. Is it any wonder companies are hedging their bets elsewhere?
Again: I'm not in favor of Haley. But I'm not in favor of Haley's stances on issues like abortion, aid to Ukraine or pardoning Donald Trump for his crimes; I don't have anything against her personally. Trump, however, has personal issues with everyone who has a spine. He's authoritarian, a wannabe crime, only accidentally DOESN'T break laws and has the diplomatic skills of a toddler pig. But at least he has dementia, so with some luck he'd have forgotten his plans to be a dictator.
...and yes, I digress. After New Hampshire, the RNC apparently called to rally around Trump. Which...nicely circles back about that spine comment I mentioned earlier: they just please Trump because he's a loudmouth who paints them a picture of him crushing Haley. The picture's a fiction, but it took Haley's remarks to call them back to say that the race isn't over yet.
Yet.
The problem is that no one's rallying around Haley. It's like she's just there to be a potential vice-president (or was: she's now responding to his attacks with some of her own). And from what I can tell, it's not likely that losing the first two states will result in a win (again: not withcounting external possibilities...see 1) ). And...who even cares? Everyone around the world is blabbering about the differences between Biden and Trump (again). Haley becoming president is not something I've ever seen someone taking serious. I can't say I take it seriously either.
Anyhow...those are some thoughts. Not sure what to achieve aside putting it on paper.
Thanks for reading.
(1): one of the most dumb and hilarious parts is where Trump apparently payd tens of thousands of dollars for an independent professor to look at his books, and he just says there's been misconduct (just not by Donald J. Trump personally).
Trump has been in the lead on republican front ever since he announced his candidacy. And he has stayed there, no matter the legal consequences of his earlier conduct. Hiding top secret documents in Mar-a-lago? Polls remain the same. Found guilty on sexually assauting Carroll? His base doesn't care. Trump's company being prosecuted for tax fraud? Polls are steady. Being removed from the ballot in Colorado? He's as popular as ever. Found guilty on defaming Carroll, to the point of facing bankruptcy? A bit early to tell, but my guess is his popularity remains the same.
There's a flipside to this, though. Among republicans, Trump had the back of well over 50% of the people. That was impressive when there were a dozen or so candidates in the race. But as the others stopped running, his popularity hardly grew, if at all. It's not exactly a surprise, given Trump's personality. But as a result of that, the one remaining candidate - Nikky Haley - has grown percentage wise all the time.
Take Iowa. Trump won. Not much of a contest there...except in turnout. Where the hell was everyone? I won't deny that the weather was pretty bad, but still...given the outcome, I'd say it was pretty even. It could even have been tense if there weren't record low turnout numbers. Yes, Trump got the most voters...from republicans...who voted in the caucus. Otherwise said: about 4% of Iowa residents voted for him.
He also won New Hampshire. Again: fairly evenly divided. Not razor thin (IIRC he got around 57%, but don't quote me on that), but decent numbers. If I were Nikki Haley, I wouldn't give up just yet either. It's pretty clear she has a base: the non-MAGA republicans flat out support her. They just don't seem to be the majority in the party anymore. That would've been a set and match if it weren't for two aces:
1) the obvious slew of trial cases of Trump followers. Where the hell is he going to find 83 million dollars to pay Carroll? How much is Engonron going to fine for his company's fucking PROVEN misconduct(1)? Is Rudy fucking GIULIANI going to sue Trump for not paying his bills?
I could go on on those, but those all sort of blend together for me. The supreme courts situation's...different. With states all over the USA filing records to ban Trump from the ballot because Colorado did it, the supreme court will have to intervene. And though Trump touts very loud that he personally put half his people there...I'm not so sure that they'll rule in his favor.
Y'see: justice systems base themselves on earlier decisions. In this case it's pretty contested, so it can go either way. But unlike politicians, those judges don't have to worry about being re-elected, so they're not as inclined to follow ideologies other than what's in their job description. They know their ruling isn't "just" about Trump but about any president (meaning: Biden would be able to hold a pretty fucking WILD re-election campaign if they rule that the inauguration oath is a sort of joke).
Of course: Trump being Trump, he isn't about to suck up to them. Rather the opposite: he whines at every chance he gets that the supreme courts should do something of the many trials he's going through. Yyyyeaaahhh...not exactly the sort of thing to remind them of when you want them to do you a favor, Donald.
But all in all: plenty of options that Trump might not even make it to the finish line. Some morons might still vote for him when he's in jail, but you can bet they're not the majority.
2) Haley currently raises more money from donors. No, I'm not talking the fact that Trump uses all his super PAC money to pay his legal fees (just heard today that he spend +50 million bucks on legal costs...and that isn't counting the 83 he owes Carroll). I'm talking the fact that Haley simply appeals more to...well...every company not called mypillow. Trump has a strong base, but it unfortunately consists of neonazi gun nuts, rightwing evangelicals who don't read the bible and Karen soccer moms. Is it any wonder companies are hedging their bets elsewhere?
Again: I'm not in favor of Haley. But I'm not in favor of Haley's stances on issues like abortion, aid to Ukraine or pardoning Donald Trump for his crimes; I don't have anything against her personally. Trump, however, has personal issues with everyone who has a spine. He's authoritarian, a wannabe crime, only accidentally DOESN'T break laws and has the diplomatic skills of a toddler pig. But at least he has dementia, so with some luck he'd have forgotten his plans to be a dictator.
...and yes, I digress. After New Hampshire, the RNC apparently called to rally around Trump. Which...nicely circles back about that spine comment I mentioned earlier: they just please Trump because he's a loudmouth who paints them a picture of him crushing Haley. The picture's a fiction, but it took Haley's remarks to call them back to say that the race isn't over yet.
Yet.
The problem is that no one's rallying around Haley. It's like she's just there to be a potential vice-president (or was: she's now responding to his attacks with some of her own). And from what I can tell, it's not likely that losing the first two states will result in a win (again: not withcounting external possibilities...see 1) ). And...who even cares? Everyone around the world is blabbering about the differences between Biden and Trump (again). Haley becoming president is not something I've ever seen someone taking serious. I can't say I take it seriously either.
Anyhow...those are some thoughts. Not sure what to achieve aside putting it on paper.
Thanks for reading.
(1): one of the most dumb and hilarious parts is where Trump apparently payd tens of thousands of dollars for an independent professor to look at his books, and he just says there's been misconduct (just not by Donald J. Trump personally).
