You're talking about polling a bunch of people who want everything at an affordable price as to whether they want everything at an affordable price. Sometimes it's just not doable...
As far as your evidence analogy...why the fuck would I take the time to google and link something that a) has been posted ad nauseam on this very forum, and b) you would simply ignore anyway to continue your rant on how stupid Sony is? You're perfectly fine looking like an ill-informed jackass and you can count on me to help prolong it as much as possible.
What exactly makes you think that the customer base is not going to move forward? And what exactly has led you to believe that customers simply went with the flow 20 years ago?
Number of competitive alternatives to gaming answers almost all of your questions.
We are in a generation of smart phones, tablets, PC's Xboxes, flippydees, flippydoos, and widdlewarts. There is so many god damn competitive things for entertainment, the probability of someone picking the Vita given they have not used a Sony gaming console is almost none. This is why the userbase is so low, it's primarily made up of Sony customers. That's where Sony is going to make all of their money off the Vita, from past customers. However, since they limited the number of people who can purchase, the flow is restricted.
The probability of buying a SNES given you have played the NES must have been amazingly high. Evidence for this is the large amount of sales, both the NES and SNES sold so many consoles that the probability of someone owning a NES and a SNES is much higher than someone who owned an NES and not an SNES. Again, because the lack of competitive alternative consoles, it was a no brainer to move forward.
How many people were still playing NES when the N64 came out? Not as much as how many people are playing PS2 when the PS4 comes out. This is evidence the flow will stop and does not have to move forward. Maybe PS2 people will buy a PS3 and move on when the PS4 comes out, but that's not SONY's objective.
My posts were not meant to advocate BC. My posts were to enlighten what they are sacrificing by not adding BC. I've even mentioned what BC did to the PS3 in the beginning and how that failed miserably (different times so I'm not making the assumption the PS4 would repeat said failures as I have no idea what the loss functions associated to each of them). I even mentioned that PS3 emulated firmware would have the same public keys as the PS3 now which is essentially a security risk if unsigned code can be ran in the PS4. There is so many god damn reasons why Sony should not add BC.
The equation is the balance between reputation and short term profits. If they were able to take a hit on short term profits, BC is a no brainer, more reputation => more investors => more sales => win. However, as been mention, we don't know the effect of reputation although I have outlined some portion of it. So we can not accurately say which one is stronger.